Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras gestures as he speaks at the Health ministry, in Athens, on Thursday, April 2, 2015. Greece and its international creditors are still struggling to agree on a list of economic reforms that are deemed necessary for the country to unlock emergency funds and stay afloat. (AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris)
Andy Langenkamp has an excellent summary of where the eurocrisis currently stands, but this bit stood out for me:
Tsipras can no longer hesitate; he has to choose. Will he seek to please the technocrats and politicians of the eurozone, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, or will he instead acquiesce to the real radical-left elements in his Syriza party (not to mention his coalition partner, the rightwing-nationalist Independent Greeks)? He has so far played for time, putting off the moment of truth. Unfortunately for him, time and money have run out.
From the creditors’ perspective, many are convinced that the eurozone would be able to cope with a Grexit economically, especially having fortified the eurozone architecture with measures such as the banking union. However, political considerations will get the upper hand – these are national-electoral, and they are geopolitical. There are numerous European elections coming up, and politicians would prefer relative stability in the eurozone so as not play into the hands of populist parties. Moreover, with the Ukraine crisis, and volatility in countries neighboring the European Union, geopolitics has regained a prominent place in the minds of European leaders. If they were to decide to cut Greece loose, Athens could turn to Russia and China for help. Nobody wants that.
The only question seems to be whether Europe will hang separately or whether Europe will hang together, but it’s the gallows either way.
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