Around 40% has been the most common answer given to the question of what percentage of Young Invincibles is needed to make the exchanges solvent. That 28% is “up” from 27% the month before — and the young invincibles were the ones who were expected most likely to sign up at the last minute. So it’s a pretty safe assumption that the youth surge never happened.

And those who did sign up are probably also the most likely to drop out after making only a payment or two.

I’d like to stress however that this is a national average. Some states will be in better shape, while others must already be actuarial disaster areas.

Bailouts today, bailouts tomorrow, bailouts forever!