The Silver State Ground Game
I don’t have numbers for you yet, but there’s potential good news out of Nevada, where “Dem turnout has been unspectacular.” That’s from Breitbart’s D.M. Hawkins, who also reminded me that Reid’s turnout/cheat machine does great work for Harry, but couldn’t turn the tables for his own son Rory — when they shared the same ballot two years ago.
NV is still a tough nut to crack, but maybe not as tough as I thought. Hawkins tweeted me back, “Right now 254K D’s have voted, 217K Rs, 106K I’s & gap narrowing daily. With a Indie win and crossover support.” I don’t know if the Ds are down from this time in 2008 or if the Rs and Is are up. Again, I just don’t have the numbers yet.
So I’m still painting NV blue. For now. I’ll turn on it like Sauron’s eye at the next sign of anything.
ALSO: If you aren’t following me on Twitter, what’s wrong with you? That’s where half my best material goes.
UPDATE: OK, I have some numbers courtesy of Johnny B. Battleground Watch has the current tallies.
Democrats have long been expected to win Clark County early voting by large margins. The story of early voting thus far has been unexpected reduced enthusiasm among Democrats, Republicans resurgence off low 2008 totals and the rise of Indepedent/Other party support. The Wednesday early vote appeared to be Democrats last chance to bury the GOP in all-important Clark County and that didn’t happen.
Ahead of the vote, one hell of a source whispered in my ear: The locations Wednesday rotate into some bad areas for Republicans but some decent ones back on Thurs and Friday. If the GOP can hold the Obama campaign to a spread of between 5000-6000 tomorrow the GOP should look pretty good going into the final early voting days.
Well, yesterday’s margin was 4159, well below the expected blood-bath and below the “good” level locals were hoping for. So great job to Team Nevada and now get after it these last two days. Overall Democrats cast 13083 ballots only 88% the 2012 weekday average. Republicans cast 8924 ballots, 90% of the 2012 weekday average. And Independents/Other cast 6017 ballots, 105% of the 2012 weekday average. Thursday and Friday are expected to be the big turnout days in early voting although there may have been some early pull-forward of ballots this cycle.
We see the election over election change in Democrat turnout is barely above the 2008 turnout +7591 and dropping daily. The change in GOP turnout is UP +23,988, a net 16,386 gain for the GOP versus 2008.
Click on over to Battleground Watch for their tracking chart, too, which looks encouraging as all hell.
Rasmussen has Obama at 50, but that’s an older poll and still within the MOE.
Folks, I’m putting NV back into the Tossup column as of right now. We’ll do a full-scale Wargaming the Electoral College tomorrow, reflecting these early voting figures in CO, NV, and OH.
UPDATE: There’s no early voting in Oregon, where it’s 100% vote-by-mail. And there Hawkins reports that “the rate of return for Obama Oregon counties close to 30% lower than McCain/Romney counties.”
OR is an odd duck, so far to the left that disgruntled Obama voters might break for Jill Stein on the Green ticket in big numbers. I believe Nader did better there in 2000 than he did in almost any other state. So don’t read too much into that 30% figure. But it might just be indicative of Obama’s weakness across the nation, if not Romney’s strength.
Also read: Romney to Campaign in PA
Fill in the blank: “Dont get (blank).”
Wait, that could be interpreted every which way but pure. I mean cocky.
Geraghty has an interesting tidbit from Nate Silver in 2009. Let’s just say that Silver2012 looks remarkably unlike Silver2009.
Check out this analysis of Nate Silver.
The author has discovered that the famous 538 model is simply a slave of the state polls. For the 5 states in 2008 and 2010 where the average of state pollsters were wrong, Silver only got one right.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/01/is-nate-silvers-value-at-risk/2/
Another tidbit. there were only 4 states in 2008 with RCP averages with margins within 2.5%, Silver got 3 right. RCP averages got 2 right. Big whoop.
A final interesting point is that Silver’s method uses the top line of state polls plus the margin of error and does monte carlo simulations. According to him, that turns a 50-49 margin into a 67% chance of winning with 1000 respondents. Maybe that works mathematically. The problem is with the accuracy and honesty of the poll itself. Given the difficulties of achieving a truly random sample and highly subjetive nature of the turnout models, what fool would claim that a any poll can possibly be anywhere near that reliable. Bottom line though is that at the end of the day, his model is simply a slave of the state polls. (which is also his “out”, since if he’s wrong, he can simply point out that the state polss were wrong). Hence he comes up with something like a 70% chance of an obama victory, even as Rasmussen and Gallup show Romney with substantial leads. Basically, Silver’s model is as much a propaganda device as the polls themselves.
This just up on the Instapundit
http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/156482/
Does this affect your Silver State calculus?
That’s gonna leave a mark!
I’m glad you linked that. I live in Henderson, NV and get the RJ. I didn’t see that this morning because I had to go to work and didn’t have time to read the paper. The only quibble I have with the editorial is that we who live here know the power of the SEIU and the Culinary unions. They’re able to load up people like cattle and bus them to the polls on election day. For all the whining about Sharron Angle in 2010, she was pulling away until the Dem’s pulled the above trick for Reid. I’m praying that we can get Romney elected. Nevada in particular is so far down, we have to look up to see bottom. But, never overestimate the intelligence of a union worker.
I’m cautiously optimistic that things look better than I thought even a few weeks ago here in NV, but let’s put a couple of things in perspective here in the name of putting specificity on the standard admonition regarding cockiness:
There were a few shenanigans by the unions in 2010, but that isn’t why Sharron Angle lost. She was an awful candidate, and our State party is weak. The State party has gotten a little better, but the Clark County GOP is worse than useless these days. We have a roughly 90K active voter disadvantage with the Dems, and the party breakdown I’ve seen in local polls showing Obama ahead by a few points actually reflect that pretty faithfully. And the R-J lost a TON of credibility by going all in for Angle (and not just on the editorial page) in a ham fistedly obvious way. (Also: Righthaven) I actually think the Reno Gazette-Journal’s endorsement may have mattered more in terms of actually persuading swing voters.
But the reason I’m optimistic is also partly the reason I think the whole “SEIU!!” think is WAY overstated, and that reason’s name is Brian Sandoval, who won handily in that same election (even in Clark County), with the same disadvantages (except for competence) that Angle faced. Romney’s Team Nevada workaround for the state party has been tremendous here. The volunteers feel like they’re winning, which means everything. And at least in swingy Washoe County (Reno), Romney signs easily outnumber O signs 10 – 1.
I’d paint a lot of swing states red in various wargame scenarios before Nevada. But we’re still in it.
Las Vegas Weighs In :
http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/benghazi-blunder-obama-unworthy-commander-in-chief-176736441.html
wow. just wow…
They came out and said the unspeakable truth that half the country has known for 4 years – that the Obama junta has been deliberately trying to destroy the economy.
Thanks for the link, Frank.
Un-freaking-believable. Definitely must-read material. Brutal and blunt, it needs to be forwarded far and wide.
“These behaviors go far beyond “spin.” They amount to a pack of lies.”
from a newspaper, no less.
Awesome.
Must read.
Brutal.
But also true- and necessary.
“unexpected reduced enthusiasm”
Unexpected!
Has anyone done a comparison of the voters to the actual votes, vis-a-vis Party ID? I see 48D/33R/19I for having voted, but how much of those is Romney getting? 44%? 45%? More? Are they releasing running vote totals?
Let’s say 10% of Dems are crossing over and no Repubs do. Romney would be at 38%. Then he gets more than half of the Indies, say, 10 points. He’d be at 48, with Obama at 52. If Romney is getting 12 points of the 19 Indies, then it would be 50/50. I’m just a little curious, is all. Nov 6 is still the decider.
We won’t know until after the election, but the pot initiative in OR might shine some light in it’s odd duckness. If there are a lot of Stein votes, but the pot initiative goes down, that will be puzzling. I think people in OR, WA, and other states with pot initiatives are in a libertarian mood now. This will be a good gauge of that.
We have a similar ballot measure in Colorado this year, which I hope passes. It was probably added to drive Obama voters to the polls, but I suspect it will do more for Johnson.
I voted straight republican BUT for the pot initiative. Oh, I also let the anarcho libertarian chick in me vote all the judges out. I have to let her have fun. I never let her for national these days.
A college friend at CU had a rule on judge retention: Vote yes on Jewish judges, no on the others. He was Jewish, but it had nothing to do with loyalty to his “tribe”. He felt that because of deep, and pronounced cultural upbringing, Jewish judges would more likely have the judicious temperament required of a good judge, on average. He allowed for deviation from the rule in the case of particular knowledge about a judge in question. I have followed that rule to this day(two days ago, actually(early voted)).
Sarah: how do you reconcile your anarchism with voting?
I’m not actually an anarchist. The anarcho libertarian chick was me at 18. She’s in there somewhere, surrounded by a lot of chocolate. (She was a lot skinnier than I am, and wore workboots and leather jackets. Okay, I still wear a leather jacket.) It’s just that I felt I needed to throw a sop to my younger self.
I’m a small l libertarian.
Wife and I early voted yesterday at the Butler County Ohio Board of elections. We expected maybe 20 folks there as it was a tad bit after lunch. When we got there, there was around 200 voters voting or in-line to vote, parking lot was a zoo, inside was even more so, and there was not one single grumbling person.
When It was my turn to get a ballot, I asked the fellow, who looked exhausted, how busy has it been. His one word answer was “swamped” When we left, it was even more crazy in the parking lot than when we go there. Then today my son asked us to go to dinner with him and since our favorite Tex-Mex eatery was just a few miles away from the board of elections, he decided to early vote today. This was at 3:30 and it was even nuttier that it was yesterday, This county went for John McCain in 2008 by about 44,000 votes. I have never seen so many political yard signs, They are everywhere you go and Romney outnumbers Obama 40-1 if not more. would not surprise me to see Butler go for Romney by 100,000 votes.
In 1980 a lot of people unhappy with the conservative turn the GOP had taken, especially the embrace of Southern evangelists, talked about voting for John Anderson right up until Election Day. When faced with 4 more years of Jimmy Carter many opted for Reagan and didn’t regret it. I suspect that will happen with the Libertarians.
As for the rest of the voters, the economy is bad in much of the far West. Gas prices are also extremely high. Those issues effect lifestyle and that tends to trump party affiliation, even when the union bosses are screaming vote Democrat.
Remember that the day before the 2010 election Harry Reid was down three points to Sharon Angle?
Remember, too, that Nevada, and Las Vegas specifically, is Chicago-West.
And for that reason, the election is still a long call; Romney may win, but Obama will likely “win”.
Oregon gave Nader 5.1% in 2000, which was less than in nine other states and DC.
The state with the highest Nader percentage? You’ll be shocked – it was Alaska> (10.1%). Of course, Bush won the state with 58.8%, more than double Gore’s pathetic 27.8%.
Sharon Angle won, every place and early, including Las Vegas and Reno, until Reid called on the casino bosses to march their employees to the polls.
Considering what Obama has done for the casinos. I do not expect the same this year.
Here in bucolic Dayton, NV there are NO Obama/Biden signs whatsoever, nor have I seen any similar bumper stickers, and only one lone public sign in Carson City on the corner of Airport Rd. and Hwy. 50. McCain got a disappointing 56% in Lyon County, which I hope will be up to 65% this time around, and Obama actually carried Carson City and Washoe County (Reno). THAT is highly unlikely to happen again.
You are so right about the myth of the FEARSOME Reid Turnout Machine, and the only one other than me to point out that the same people he got out also drew the line at voting for Rory, who didn’t even win Clark County. All the campaign mail my NP wife got with return address “Nevada Democratic Party” was for Harry and Harry only. NOT ONE mention of legislative, congressional, or other statewide candidates, even though I have no doubt that contributors to the party were expecting the organization to go to bat for ALL its candidates.
Obama may yet still carry Nevada, but the figures you cite bode well for victories by Dean Heller, Joe Heck and Danny Tarkanian, Greg Brower for a bitterly contested state senate race in Reno, and possible regain of the state senate.
Howard Hirsch
chairman, 2007-08
Lyon County Republican Party
Dayton, Nevada
Here is some more <a href="http://politicalhat.com/2012/11/01/nevada-early-vote-update-12th-day-of-14/"local number crunching from NV…
Oops – proper link here:
http://politicalhat.com/2012/11/01/nevada-early-vote-update-12th-day-of-14/
In 2008, just over a million (Nevada) votes were cast in the presidential election. This was a record turnout for my state.
I have a very difficult time believing that well over half a million have already cast their ballots in early voting.
Steve, I told you weeks ago about Nevada, it’s not too late to be the smartest guy in the room. Put NV in the red column and move from demi-god pundit status to full on pundit deity. I’m telling you man, it’s going to be 1980 deja vu all over again. The Mormon vote here in Nevada is going to crush any casino-worker voter junkets that Reid can finagle. Øbama has been no friend to Las Vegas and Clark County and many of the dhimmicrats will simply “forget” to go to the polls on Tuesday. I can’t wait for the word “unexpected” come election night in Nevada.
Sure, I follow you, but Kruiser follows me back. So there!
What he said.
In 2009, Obama said “You don’t go blow a bunch of cash on Vegas”. That one remark made Vegas conventions toxic. Hundreds upon hundreds of conventions cancelled. (Conventions are Vegas number 1 job). Thousands of people were laid off. Vegas didn’t forget that. There is zero union support for Obama this time. I think there is a good chance a lot of those Dem votes, are not for Obama.