Wargaming the Electoral College: Quickfire Thursday Edition
If Suffolk University was correct in its decision to quit polling FL, NC, and VA voters and paint those states red, then here’s our new battleground map, with MI and PA slipping (very slightly) into battleground territory.
Now I never did consider NC to be a battleground state, but it would appear that Romney has moved the playing field to the right. Two battlegrounds (FL, VA) have turned red. And three blue states (MI, PA, WI) are opening up. The GOP looks to have a great ground game in OH, and a win there puts Mitt in the White House. Romney can also score a win with with just PA or just MI. Either IA + WI or NH + WI gets Romney over the finish line, too.
If I’m wrong about CO, that opens things up for Obama a bit more. My lyin’ eyes though tell me CO has rather quickly become a gimme for the GOP.
In a close race, Obama wins it 281-257, or Romney takes it 285-253. But if Romney breaks this open — which he now has some small chance to do — then it’s 331-207, and a pretty complete repudiation of the last four years.
UPDATE: For what it’s worth, RCP moved MI and PA into the tossups this morning, too. All is proceeding exactly as I have foreseen.
If Minnesota shifts to “Toss-up”, then I’ll recognize your boast Pallpatine.
This race is over before it leaves the Eastern Time Zone.
Depends. If PA and OH go to Obama, it’ll be settled in Central.
Make that PA and OH and MI. If Romney gets one of those three, you can safely pop the cork.
It’s also contingent on those states being called within an hour of the polls closing.
Whats going on in Maine? Even Sabato has noted that the situation there has changed.
Short version? People have been looking for permission to vote against Obama. Last Wednesday, Romney gave them that permission. As a result, he’s going to do better in Maine than any GOP candidate since Bush won there in 1988. I don’t see him taking the state, although he could conceivably pull one EC vote out of it.
Candidates win when their campaign is about the people they are representing.
Candidates lose when their campaigns become all about the candidate.
Of course, this would not be the conclusion reached by a narcissist.
What about ME-CD2?
Romney up by 4 in ME-2. Could win 1 EV.
If Romney takes just two battleground states (NH and WI) and the 257 assumed to be in the GOP column, he’ll make history – the first Republican to win without Ohio.
I honestly believe that Romney will win Ohio given what is going on in OH today.
My take is another 1980 where it was over before the polls closed in the mountain states.
Lotta Romney signs here in my corner of Connecticut. And they are not being slashed either. I went last night to the debate of our two congressional candidates, Steve Obsitnik and the Democrat incumbent Jim Himes. Aside from Himes’ gratuitous snarkiness, one of the take-aways was the big distance he wanted to put between himself and Obama. Quite striking in this mindlessly blue state.
THIS. Through the poll misdirection and the deranged media, what I’ll note is that NO ONE in local elections is tying himself to Obama, as they did to Clinton (typed clingon, first) in his reelection campaign. Mind you, not many tied themselves to Bush in 04, either, but think about it — that was under as heavy a pounding by the media as a sitting president ever took. Obama has the opposite and is STILL toxic. It has to mean something.
Not entirely true.
Rob Teplitz, running for State Senate in PA, has “OBAMA/TEPLITZ” signs posted throughout Harrisburg PA.
Okay, so there are exceptions, but it’s not… a widespread practice.
About the signs, I think many Romney supporters (especially in heavy blue states) are afraid to put their signs out in case they might get a rock through a window. I know that my car got keyed the same day I put a McCain bumper sticker on my car in 2008 (and I live in a VERY red state). So I think there might be a silent but deadly group of Romney voters out there. I am cautiously optimistic at this point.
You may be able to list Nevada as a toss-up – check on it. 48.2 Obama to 46.6 Romney per RCP. The Republican Party here is a shambles and the Democratic machine is very good, but don’t read too much into the 2010 Senate race. Sen. Reid convinced Republicans to stay home and Nevada has a strong bipartisan history of keeping Senators in high power positions. Republicans won’t need any help getting to the polls this year and I have several apolitical friends who recently registered to vote for the first time to vote against Obama – a 2008 in reverse – and I don’t think these people get polled. Also, don’t discount the Mormon factor. Very high enthusiasm and turnout there will offset (and maybe exceed) Obama’s African-American turnout. Not sure we’ll go red, but there is a chance.
That’s good to read, Rob. I’ve gone back and forth on NV, but it’s very difficult to see Romney overcoming Reid’s casino machine and your Ronulan-infested state GOP. I know upstate Mormon enthusiasm will be huge, will it be enough? I just don’t see it yet.
Look at the economic wreckage of Las Vegas since 2008. Its a very different place than it was 4 years go.
I seem to recall that NV used to be very reliably republican. Is this change to a solid blue state the result of Californians escaping the wreckage they created and then behaving in the exact same ways in their new home?
May I remind you that California used to be a red (used to be blue until the commies stole blue from us in 2000)state too. We are the ones who gave you Ronald Reagan.
The whackadoodles started to flood the state in the 60′s. The grownups in my little kid world truly believed the world was coming to an end with all these heathens invading the state.
It didn’t take them long to trash the place. They’re like locusts, consuming everything in their path and then moving on to the next patch of earth to devour. I believe they consumed Oregon and Washington before moving on to Nevada.
I’ve been here in the Golden State since ’87. I recall this place being moderately sane. But people who like to control things began controlling things. And the citizens started bailing. So we end up w/ a highly concentrated progressive electorate that is always moving leftward. First those to the right of Pete Wilson were alienated and left. Then those to the right of Arnold. At the point now where people just to the right of Lenin are considered right-wingnuts. While those Leninists are figuring CA is just too damn socialist, time to move to another state.
I know what you mean. Ive lived in CA a total of 10 years, San Bernardino County on the early 90s, San Diego county in early 2000′s and northern San Diego co til late 08. I would love to move back when my husband retires from the military because I loved many things about it. However, the negatives simply outweigh the positives now & it is simply not going to happen. The freedom lovers have fled & the lunatics are running the asylum now more than ever. It makes me even more sad than what the libs did to my hometown of Detroit.
@lolly – I agree with your comment about “blue”. I will NEVER consider myself “red”, but always “TRUE blue”! I served in (West) Berlin for 6 years, and I remember the commies over there all too well!
Washington State (west of the Cascades, at least) has always been a bit lefty- the cradle of the Wobblies and all that.
Latest Suffolk poll had 0bama up by 2 in a D+8 RV poll. It had Romney winning the state except for Clark and Weshoe Co. The poll had 0bama winning Weshoe Co by 4%. In 2008, 0 won it by 12.5%.
In the Minneapolis/St Paul area, it’s quiet as the grave. I’ve seen two Obama ’12 bumper stickers, one Romney bumper sticker, and one Romney yard sign. And my commute is about 16 miles each way, so I’ve had plenty of bumpers and yards to look at.
Every other bit of politicking I’ve seen has been local races (30%) or “vote yes/vote no” signs (70%) about the marriage-definition thing. Those all seem equally split.
Whether I’m in the blueish or reddish areas of the cities, nobody’s tipping their hand. Considering the state politics range from seriously blue (Reagan vs. Mondale) to seriously insane (Ventura, Franken), that might be a good sign for Romney, but I don’t know.
Mike: as a fellow Twin Citian, I can corroborate your testimony. For starters, I haven’t seen any Romney-Ryan signs. With that said, here in Robbinsdale (I live close to the parkway near North Memorial and N Mpls), I’ve seen virtually no Obama-Biden signs either…here in one of the most liberal districts in the state. My simp-mind interprets this to mean low enthusiasm for Obama. They may not be voting for Romney, but they’re not voting for the president either. As you mentioned. I do see a fair number of local signs (usually for a democrat).
Toured through New Hampshire a couple of times over the last month on business. A month ago Romney signs out numbered Obama signs 8 to 1, but in my 2nd trip last week I saw alot more Obama signs than before. Romney signs still dominate however. Only place I saw Obama signs outnumbering Romney’s were in Concord and that town is the capital where there are lots of government workers and SEIU types.
I heard that until recently Obama was selling signs and maybe that puts a damper on distribution. NH looks pretty purple to me, hope I am way wrong about that. I have read that Republican registrations are out numbering Democrats in NH.
Or maybe unions are bullying members into displaying signs.
Free signs, plus a hefty fine for not displaying?
I am cautiously optimistic, preferring to think of this as a sporting game, with a clock running down, and Romney and supporters must put on the full court press and run the other team off the floor. Can be no playing for time.
Here in the occupied territories of Northern Virginia, you see many more Obama signs than you see Romney signs, but I don’t think that tells the whole story. I have seen Romney bumbper stickers in homes that I have visited indicating that Romney supporters don’t feel quite free to put up a sign here. Also, I went to a lunch on Monday. The speaker asked if anyone knows a McCain voter who was thinking of voting for Obama. One hand. Then he asked if any knows an Obama voter in 2008 who was planning on voting for Romney this time around–about a third of the audience raised their hands. He said he as seen the same pattern across the oountry. This may be a “silent majority” election.
There IS a silent majority. I’ve known that since my first Tea Party. I was so sure I was all alone and feeling beaten down, and sure no one in government would ever listen to me again. (I’ve been there before in Portugal, and the mechanism was startlingly similar.) I heard about the tea party in my town by following two-links-out from Instapundit, and I thought “it will be me and fifteen other people, and we’ll be lucky not to get beaten.” Since I lived within distance of the gathering place, though, and since I have more… okay, I can’t have more balls than brain, but if I were a guy, I totally would, I decided I’d go.
I live about ten blocks off, and the first thing I noticed is that OUR street was getting parked solid. Then, as I started walking down, it was like a growing river, with more and more people joining at every intersection, as the cross streets got parked over.
The funny thing is that all of us had this mullish, determined “I might be alone, but d*mn it, I’m going.”
At the end there was a crowd — well, the local paper said 1500, which when you consider lunch hour, business day, is a lot, but I have EXPERIENCE of demonstrations, and I’d say 2.5k — and the reassuring thing? We were all colors, sizes and ages. (There was a group of Native Americans in traditional dress who arrived by minibus. Still not sure where they came from, but glad to have them there.) Since then, I’ve had the same sort of moments in the 10 election and the Chick-filet thing and a dozen other things, including the way OWS despite all the cultural support and ALL the push from the establishment, including books written about it TOTALLY died on the vine.
There HAS to be a silent majority. (My almost apolitical husband — raised in a liberal household, but having lived long enough with me to be knee jerk anti-Marxist, yet prefers not to think about any of it — refuses to answer polls, for instance, because he can’t “trust people on the other side.”)
How big? Who knows. This election is terrifying me like no other before. My gut says it’s Romney in a blow out, but my head keeps gibbering in fear.
And we’re playing for all the cookies.
Sarah;
I know how you felt. I saw the outrage in the voice of the guy who started it all at the Stock Market and I felt like I was shouting loud enough to be heard all the way up there where he was. I have always been politically active but 8 years ago I ended up in a wheelchair and it kind of curtailed my politics some. but the Tea Party gave me a jolt! I talked to my wife and my four kids (4yrs thru 14yrs) and told them if no one else even showed up we would. I contacted some people I knew on the net and got the ball rolling. We were the first Tea Party to hold a rally in Alabama on Feb 18th of that year.
we could not get the press/radio to even talk about it. When we got to the park there was already 10 people there waiting for us. We had over 4 cars stop and join us when they were passing by and saw our signs. We had Republicans, Democrats, Indies, and I don’t know how many others. Black, White, Asian and Native American.
I had gotten 4 of the best candidates running in our local elections to come and we had a great time.
Don’t let your fears overcome your determination to speak out and you could change the world. The Liberal/Marxist are not supermen just liars & cheats.
Deo Vindice!
“This election is terrifying me like no other before. My gut says it’s Romney in a blow out, but my head keeps gibbering in fear.”
You’ve perfectly captured my current state, blow out v. gibbering fear.
Yeah, it’s a nicely turned phrase. She shows some promise. Maybe she should consider writing for a living.
Mark Malone — you are a BAD MAN. I suspect you comment on my blog. They’re all BAD PEOPLE there.
A silent majority is simply a majority of cowards. If it weren’t for the remaining portions of our Constitution and Bill of Rights we would have long ago been reduced to serfdom (or more accurately Marxist proledom). More and more of us need to speak up – at work – at church – at the gym – at the ball field – etc. More and more of us need to write and publish essays extolling the founding principles of our American Revolution. More and more of us need to run for school boards and political office. Our Founding Fathers will stop turning in their graves when the silent majority finally takes courage – and speaks out – and takes action – in defense of our God-given equal rights to life, liberty and the fruit of our own labor in creative pursuit of happiness.
Yes, but take in account many people work in “Captured Fields”. I still do. And whatever people say about there being “no black list” it’s amazing how your books stop selling and they can’t offer a new contract the moment they realize you’re a conservative. Particularly if you’re a first generation immigrant from a Latin country (Sarah is my citizenship name, and Hoyt is my married name)
I can talk for two reasons — Baen books, which doesn’t care what my political color is, provided I can tell a story — and because I can take my other stuff, mystery, fantasy and historical, indie on my own. This is still a huge risk but I THINK I can survive financially until it starts paying. OTOH I could find myself living under the bridge.
Ten years ago, when my kids were in the public schools and I had no options but to keep working for the media-industrial-democrat complex, I might have been a “coward” by staying quiet. I preferred to think of it as “likes to keep kids safe and fed.”
Similar defiance in our Southern Colorado county. The local paper is owned by an out of state company [Texas, of all places] and they told me that they had an order not to give any coverage to the TEA Party [memo said that "resistance to taxes is treason"]. They started covering us just before the 2010 election [because their circulation was dropping] and put the embargo back on a few months ago.
We gathered in one of our larger parks with a bandshell stage. Across the highway there were a LOT of people wearing sunglasses with long lensed cameras documenting all of us.
We are a small town. We know all the reporters from the local rag. No vehicles from the nearby urban media. We know all the cops and County Sheriffs Deputies [and they are on our side, anyway]. They were NOT from our county. We assumed that they were Federales or CBI.
When I got up to speak, I pointed them out and had the crowd greet them. There was a variety of waves. We were in no mood to back down.
Romney is not my first, second, or third choice. But I will vote for him if I have to involve one of those evil black rifles …. or an 1860 Cavalry saber I happen to own, to get to the polls.
From the response to our weekly GOTV rallies, I will not be alone.
Subotai Bahadur
I was just up there Sept 28-30 & was shocked at how few o signs there were & how many romney I saw. Granted, I saw more o stuff up there than any place I have been (even Detroit) but I expected more. I see enthusiasm is just not where it was in 08. I certainly see enthusiasm on the right
Stephen,
My college neighborhood has 10 Romney signs for every Obama sign. And we don’t even have ours up yet — I can’t decide whether to have it in English or Spanish (they don’t offer them in Portuguese) or which would make my neighbors’ heads explode more. But Dan and I have decided to compromise. We’ll put English signs on either side, and the Spanish (or Portuguese if I can trick one out — there’ s a Portuguese neighborhood two streets away, anyway) at the corner point.
Oh, yeah, Steve knows this, but for the rest of you, Colorado. And I’d say Steve’s gut is right.
My fear right now is the media in the VP debate and today’s phony balloney jobless claim report — will any of it stick?
Thanks for that, Sarah.
Will it stick? The True Believers won’t doubt any of it — not out loud. And everybody else stopped listening a long time ago.
I live in a “mixed” neighborhood, too: teachers, college professors and middle-class liberals, offset by a fair number of military types, self-made business people and middle-class conservatives.
Earlier this week, the signage was 50-50 Obama v. Romney. What’s notable is this reflects a significant shift from 2008, when it seemed close to a 70-30 split.
Among those sporting Dem candidate signs, only a handful ALSO have Obama-Biden signs. One neighbor, a rabid Obama supporter in 2008, has only one sign in the yard: House For Sale.
That said, local folks are playing this close to the vest. Fewer signs, but a quiet determination to vote, particularly among Repubs and Indies.
O: These aren’t the electoral votes you’re looking for.
MSM: These aren’t the electoral votes we’re looking for.
O: Move along.
MSM: Move along… move along.
I sense a Romney blowout from six thousand miles away.
The portents are there.
The debate was awful for Obama.
The Libya-Egypt news is lousy for Obama.
That the White House lied about the causes of the attacks is bad news for him.
Romney is looking good, talking clearly, sounding confident on foreign policy.
People here are very biased, of course. We don’t want Obama. But I have been following political discussions since I was knee-high to a bridge table. Romney is going to sweep to victory.
I mentioned it last week, but Mitt has to actually fight for Michigan and Pennsylvania to have a chance. The GOP here in MI is lame and spineless; Rick Snyder is invisible, Senate candidate Pete Hoekstra is a ghost with NO money to spend on anything, the ballot proposals this year are all leftist initiatives, and all but three of the state Supreme Court judges are liberal nominees. The deck is stacked against Romney (who isn’t running any ads or campaigning here, either).
I can’t see Romney fighting for PA. Philadelphia can carry the state Blue all by itself (not to mention all the AFSCME/SEIU state employees in Harrisburg), and you can be sure the New Black Panthers are going to be putting on a repeat performance of 2008, making sure anybody they suspect might break Romney won’t be able to get into the polling locations.
The smart set is saying both obama and Romney have 47% bases, and that the race swings on the other 6%.
Romney’s “47%” is squishy, but the Fraud’s “47%” is simply unbelievable. There areen’t that many welfare dependents in the country, and everybody who isn’t can be struck by lightening and realize that the guy who went to bed when a US ambassador was tortured and killed (and then lied about the causes in front of the UN) isn’t the guy who should be leading the country.
Assuming the republicans have put the attention and resources in Ohio to overcome voter fraud of 5%, the election now looks to be a fairly easy Romney victory.
Before the marxists “surprises”, that is. We haven’t heard much about Mormonism lately, have we? And the Pip Squeek hasn’t peeped a word about taking over a Seal Team and personally leading an assault on Libya yet either. And why would this be the fist election in the Fraud’s life for which sealed records for his opponent haven’t been revealed? What if some records pop up about Romney’s love child? It will be a damn shame if some do and after the election they turn out to be forgeries.
But I kid…no normal person can begin to imagine what the criminals will come up with. After all, the mortgage “crisis” was widely known from about October, 2007, yet the cataclysmic market crash didn’t happen until less than 2 months before the last major election. It’s not like these people majored in ethics.
Although I would rather post otherwise, I simply can’t see Romney winning Iowa. I base this as you have on comparative lawn sign analysis. I was biking last week through western Iowa last week and saw a unexpected number of signs for Kristy Vilsack (D). She’s running against long term incumbent Peter King (R) in the most conservative district in the state.
No way she should have that level of support there. Given that and that Obama carried the state by 9% in 08, I just can’t see the state swinging sufficiently.
Stephen what does that amazing red map mean for down ticket races? I’ve been so obsessed with the Presidential that this post if the first I’ve thought about it. I think 2010 was even R/D turn out split and it resulted in 63 House and 6 Senate seats, so obviously much of the low hanging fruit has been plucked. If we end up with an even or just a D+1 or +2 how big do you think that would be for races other than the big one?
I’ve been predicting a Republican landslide for three years. Any good Republican could beat Obama, I have argued, because in my trips to town I never encounter an ordinary person who would vote for Obama, again or for the first time. I admit that I don’t do business in the ghetto or union shops, so I don’t meet supporters who are locked in for Obama. I do attend a Farmer’s Market in the town that hosts Indiana University, where many Marxists reside, and so I give the Obama vote to university towns. Yes, this election will be over in a huge landslide, and over before tallied states reach the Mississippi River.
November 6th can’t come fast enough.
May I offer my confession as a “polled” voter? Since July I have been regularly polled by a certain organization. On those occasions when my wife is present I remain a steadfast and loyal Democrat. But only on those occasions when she is out of the house, I reveal the truth that I am actually going to vote a straight GOP ticket. The fact that the country in on the “wrong track” trumps party identity. As well as the fact that the modern Tea Party reminds me of my traditional “old fashioned liberal” Democratic party.
I have always believed Romney would take Florida. Now I’m just hoping for a big enough margin to sweep away Bill Nelson.
Stephen, I hope you guys found some extra bandwidth for tonight.
After the debate tonight I think they should plant Ryan in the midwest and not let him leave until election day. I’m including PA.
I hate to keep tooting this particular horn of mine, but over a year ago I said this election would be decided in the industrial Midwest and the Great Lakes (minus Illinois, of course). That’s why Ryan was such a perfect pick for Romney to make.
Living here in Ohio I would be very surprised if Obama carries us this time.I have seen exactly 5 Obama signs and many many more Romney signs.I know no one who wants another 4 years of this.
In Toledo, I’ve seen exactly one Obama yard sign for every ten Romney signs.
Stephen, I like the look of this map, but we still have weeks to go. It’s interesting that a candidate could set up a base of operation in Columbus, OH and spend relatively little time traveling between events in this small battleground. I hope and pray for very heavy precipitation in the Great Lakes on November 6th to shift the mix of voters in our favor.
And on cue, news leaking out that the Obama campaign is closing some offices here in Michigan – while GOP super PACs are apparently gearing up to return to the airwaves here, and Ann Romney is visiting the mitten (lower case) tomorrow…
I did a drive through my neighborhood today on my way home from the local Romney victory center – around a dozen or so Romney signs, including several others displaying “Protect Religious Freedom” signs (wonder who those folks will vote for?)….all of TWO Obama signs.
Something is afoot…
Oh, we have more Obama signs than that, but still more Romney.
AND in Maine…
Obama 48-44 statewide….but ROMNEY 49-44 in ME-2.
http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/10/poll-romney-leads-obama-in-maine-congressional-district-138207.html
Back in early 2009, I scoured the internet looking for any signs that the fever had broken, that people were waking up, anything. Dark, lonely times indeed. To read the comments on traditional liberal sites like Yahoo, WaPo, or even LA Times today is…wonderfully shocking. So many are now against Obama. I think Romney will win in a landslide.
Yahoo is liberal, but the commenters are center-right, just like the rest of the country. Tonight, I’m seeing more liberal comments than usual so I’m thinking it’s the paid folk.
CBS is showing a swing in the Peoples Demokratic Socialist Republik of Kalifornia of 8 points towards Romney/Ryan. Can you just imagine the Liberal suicide rate if the PRK swings right? Brings a tingle down my spine.