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Wargaming the Electoral College: Quickfire Thursday Edition

October 11th, 2012 - 5:03 am

If Suffolk University was correct in its decision to quit polling FL, NC, and VA voters and paint those states red, then here’s our new battleground map, with MI and PA slipping (very slightly) into battleground territory.

Now I never did consider NC to be a battleground state, but it would appear that Romney has moved the playing field to the right. Two battlegrounds (FL, VA) have turned red. And three blue states (MI, PA, WI) are opening up. The GOP looks to have a great ground game in OH, and a win there puts Mitt in the White House. Romney can also score a win with with just PA or just MI. Either IA + WI or NH + WI gets Romney over the finish line, too.

If I’m wrong about CO, that opens things up for Obama a bit more. My lyin’ eyes though tell me CO has rather quickly become a gimme for the GOP.

In a close race, Obama wins it 281-257, or Romney takes it 285-253. But if Romney breaks this open — which he now has some small chance to do — then it’s 331-207, and a pretty complete repudiation of the last four years.

UPDATE: For what it’s worth, RCP moved MI and PA into the tossups this morning, too. All is proceeding exactly as I have foreseen.

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