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Wargaming the Electoral College

October 8th, 2012 - 11:55 am

Polls are are starting to reflect the results of last week’s debate, so it must be time for another exciting edition of WtEC. That’s pronounced “We-Tech,” which couldn’t be further from the truth.

I’ll get the controversial bit out of the way first, and go with my gut that Colorado is most likely out of reach for Team Obama. What I’m seeing on the ground and hearing from locals just doesn’t mesh with Empty Chair taking the Centennial State again. Just a few months ago, it looked like Colorado might prove to be the most difficult purple-state pickup for Mitt Romney, but it sure doesn’t look that way from here — and that was before the Denver debate. What I’m seeing of the ground game makes Romney 2012 look like Obama 2008. Well, not that amped, but close enough to secure my state.

That leaves us with Obama’s best-case scenario looking like so.

Even if that’s something of a comedown from 2008, it’s still a convincing win. But what’s Romney’s potential upside?

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