“Don’t Panic” in Large, Friendly Letters
September 21st, 2012 - 3:43 pm
Here is where Gallup has found incumbent presidents at this point, i.e. roughly mid-September, since 1956.
Through 2004 every incumbent who was above 50 percent at this point won, and every incumbent who was under 50 percent at this point lost. As of today, Obama is under 50 percent.
Now get to work.
People put too much stock in historical trends. History is not destiny. A black candidate never won the White House — until one did. No Irish Catholic did either — until one did. No governor ever won a recall — until one did.
The thing is that there’s always a first time for everything.
Through 2004 every incumbent who was above 43 percent at this point won, and every incumbent who was under 43 percent at this point lost. As of today, Obama is over 43 percent.
We’re screwed.
By that logic, every incumbent who was at > 48% at this time also won, so that means Obama is toast again.
I’m reminded of the Futurama clip:
“It’s a quantum finish!”
“No fair, you changed the result by observing it!”
Mitt Romney double digit lead in unskewed data from Reuters/Ipsos poll
http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-double-digit-lead-unskewed-data-from-reuters-ipsos-poll-1
The actual poll shows Obama up by 5, but the author says the poll over-samples Democrats and under-samples indys: “Unskewed, the data from this poll would indicate a Romney lead of 54 percent to 44 percent.”
See where the candidates really stand in the polls at UnSkewedPolls.com: http://www.unskewedpolls.com/
Hey, this may be BS but so is the “mainstream” media…. so, if you’re gonna get BS either way, why not go with the BS you like?
Steve — Sarah’s voice comes out of the ceiling fixture — we must get “like” buttons in here, so I can like comments like Buck O’Fama’s.
Um… of course, that would mean I’d probably infest Vodkapundit MORE, which might not be the desired result. (Ahhhhh. Not the Sarahbegone can, not the can.)
At this rate BO will be lucky to get 42% by November 6.
Large friendly letters indeed.
In The Liar’s Poker Election, you can throw out ANYTHING that pretends to predict the last four years or the coming election.
We have a President (and his administration) that lies to us about fixing the economy, about protecting our borders, about running guns, about protecting embassies, about supporting Israel, about Obamacare, about hidden taxes, about religious freedom and freedom of speech.
These things are then taken and turned into bigger lies by the propagandists, who forge documents, redden eyes of candidates, form a hidden cabal, who all conspire to bury bad news for Obama and coverup his lies, while creating lies out of whole cloth about everyone who opposes Obama.
These double-decker lies are then fed to the pollsters, who oversample useful idiots, simpletons, the indoctrinated, the brainwashed, SEIU/ACORN members and people who have been photographed by Zombie. Sometimes this is all one person.
This gives us a “current reading” of who is “winning” the Liar’s Poker Election.
Except…it doesn’t take into account the plot twist.
What if, in this Liar’s Poker Election, the populace decided to play? The “oversampling” had a force multiplier? (which might be somewhat offset by not counting “utility Bill’s” and “Chicago cemetery voters” and office seekers from Maryland…who either vote illegally, vote when dead, or vote twice or more).
Besides, what fun would it be to tell everyone in America that Romney is up by 39% at this stage and nobody with a firing synapse wants any more of Obama’s “change”? You can’t sell newspapers or tv ads or magazine fillers with a rout that big, this early.
So, Obama has a lead and people in Ohio think he has been wonderful for the economy. Yeah, that’s the ticket.
Obama will get at least 47%, those who are afraid to lose their “disability”, their welfare payments; those elitists who love to “save” people with other people’s money to show their superior status; those crony one-percenters: Kaiser, Buffett, Soros, GE’s Immelt, JPM Chase’s Dimon who love to preen and receive “stimulus” and taxpayer financed bonuses; those who want others to pay for their condoms, the public sector paper pushers, the greedy selfish AARP old folks who gang up on the young, and those who are unable to think for themselves.
Looks like 1980 in which both candidates are running neck-and-neck. But Carter had fewer “clients” then. Carter massaged messages, but did not blatantly lie, Obama lies thru his teeth.
The cliff hanger is how many undecided decided to stay home, how many long dead decided to vote, how many votes decided to show up in garages and warehouses in swing states, how many pre-recorded votes decided to clog up vote counting computers. Minnesota’s senator Big Mouth won by 300 votes after numerous recounts, a few months ago more than a thousand votes were found invalid.
Zaphod Beeblebrox has the following message for Barack Obama:
“Do Panic!, and, no, I won’t lend you my Peril-Sensitive Sunglasses.”