An Excellent Question
Doug Mataconis asks, “Are Republican voters suicidal?” That’s in response to some strange numbers from inside that recent Michigan GOP poll:
As I noted in my earlier post, the latest poll from the Detroit News shows Rick Santorum leading Mitt Romney by four points among likely Michigan primary voters, this depite the fact that Romney clearly beats Santorum in the areas that one would think actually matter to voters:
Romney was four points behind with Santorum even though far more voters believe he’s a better leader than Santorum (38 percent to 15.8 percent) and more likely to beat President Barack Obama (42.2 percent to 18.4 percent).
It seems even Santorum voters don’t think much of Santorum. If correct, it strengthens the argument that Santorum isn’t much more than the most recent Not-Romney.
This is what I feared — the Stupid Party is acting stupid. Evil party is rubbing its hands together and going mwahahahahaha.
ACE NAILED WHEN HE SAID THAT THE ANYONE BUT MITT CROWD WOULD RATHER DEFEAT MITT THAN DEFEAT OBAMA.
THEY’VE TURNED THE GOP INTO A CIRCULAR FIRING SQUAD.
There is something definitely wrong with the process. I can’t figure out what it is — but there’s something up when the Candidate No One Wants (Romney) can hang around so long.
If he’d been the one eliminated early — and I’m talking Pawlenty early — we wouldn’t be faced with this particular choice. Why did he survive when the so-called Base clearly doesn’t want him?
He got lots of early support (read that as “money”) from establishment Republicans because, on paper, he seemed like the right guy for 2012. He had a good campaign organization all ready to go, he doesn’t seem scary to independents, and he wouldn’t rock the establishment boat too much. Those items are still operative, so he’s still got money to buy enough advertising to stay in the game, but he’s wasting resources that are going to be needed in October.
The base, and to some extent the establishment, has backed off from supporting him out of a belief that he can’t actually articulate a full-throated response to the Obama campaign’s Huey Long message. They’re afraid he’s going to lose.
The problem is that, if you go by record, the most qualified guys were Perry, Pawlenty, Johnson, and (ugh) Huntsman.
I understand Perry got in late, and could’ve gotten the money if he hadn’t shot himself in the foot. I understand staying away from Huntsman, even though he’s more conservative than Romney. But why did Pawlenty and Johnson get no love?
That confuses me.
T-Paw — and I’m a fan, FWIW — refused to pull the trigger on “Obamneycare” during one of the very early debates. He never recovered from that failure of nerve.
A shame, too.
Johnson promised to rock the establishment boat. Perry got the full media treatment.
the base doesn’t elect presidents.
the independents do.
if we want to win the white house, then we need someone who can do more than throw redmeat at the base.
Is that what they’re teaching in “How to lose elections and not influence people” class these days?
We’ve tried the moderate approach. Surprise! It isn’t what voters want.
Yes, the “Independents” choose the winners, but you are making the assumption that that means they vote for the middle-of-the-roader. They do not. They vote for the guy with passion, be he Left or Right. They vote for Hot or Cold. The spew tepid from their mouths.
They do not vote on the issues, because they generally do not know the issues. They vote on a key moment’s impression of a candidate. If he seems strong and passionate, why then, he must be the right choice. Most folks vote in half-assed fashion.
Independent does not mean Center.
Why does everyone assume the independents are somewhere between the far left and the near left? Remember what Regan said about no longer being a Democrat?
“I didn’t leave the Democrat Party, the Democrat Party left me.”
The Cocktail Party has been marching in lockstep like a manacled chain gang convict ever leftward (or conceivably leftard)to the point I believe Regan could echo the sentiment but name the Republicans this time.
Ann Coulter claims Romney “tricked” Massachusetts Democrats into voting for him. Balderdash, he just appealed to what a Democrat used to be, as did Scott Brown. Neither are as conservative as Regan and neither can reach those people that appeared in the voting booths to carry 49 states. We were told he wasn’t “moderate” enough to appeal to independents either.
Well as Gomer Pyle said, “Surprise, surprise, surprise.” To update Ross Perot’s slogan, “There’s not a nickel’s worth of difference.” (With inflation from when Perot said “dime’s” a nickel is worth about a cent.
The TEA Party could help if the Cocktail Party could bear input from the “upstarts”. I’m praying for a brokered convention and anything that slows Mutt Moneybags down is why you’re seeing those “mystifying” poll results.
There are three segments of voters out there, Stephen.
There are the “not Romneys”, the “un-Romneys” and the “meh-Romneys”.
The “not Romneys” are in kamikaze mode. They will attack capitalism, the free market, Chris Christie, Ann Coulter, Bob McDonnell, …anything that moves, if it is attached to Romney. They see a “conservative pravda” behind every mild critique (much less criticism) of any “non-Romney” candidate. They see “establishment” money and “RINO’s” beneath every bed and around every corner.
They have anger management issues and are nearly impervious to reason.
The “un-Romneys” want a different candidate, won’t vote for him in the primaries, but would support him in the general. Many of this crowd (estimates up to 60%) are utterly, wholly, completely dissatisfied with the entire slate.
The “meh-Romneys” look at the slate and say he’s got the best chance of an incredibly weak field, they will hold their nose, vote for him and cross their fingers….which is quite a physical feat when you think about it.
You cannot convince the first group about…well, anything. Facts don’t matter. It is raw, unhinged emotion, seething with rage, blind to logic, boiling with revenge. Even though Newt bathed in this acid and destroyed himself, this group wanted to jump in with him with both feet.
They simply are gravitating to the next “non Romney”…the last one standing. Santorum had virtually no support before the “candidate convenient store” ran out of other non-Romney brands.
He was lucky. He was the least attractive girl in the bar, until closing time. Now, they want to take him home. (insert your own contraceptive joke here)
As the non-Romney afterthought, he’s the doggy bag dinner for tomorrow.
“He ain’t much, but he ain’t Romney”. Sounds like a winning slogan to get behind in August.
exactly.
I am a not-Romney. It is not blind hatred. I just know him for what he is. I know what his Presidency would be like. He’d give us the kinder, gentler version of Obama.
Reagan gave Republicans a positive image. Bush ’41, the establishment’s choice, destroyed it.
The Contract with America gave Republicans a positive image. Bush ’43 destroyed it.
2010 saw the Repubs sweep into power across the country, and there will be more in 2012. Again, we might see another positive view. Another Establishment Republican would destroy that. People do not want business-as-usual from the Repubs. If they want that, they can vote for Democrats.
Romney is just like Obama. His words are empty. His promises come with expiration dates. If I want another Obama, I’ll stick with the real deal, not his kinder, gentler, more competent, Republican version.
I am a Conservative. I was never a Republican, because they rarely represented me. When they occasionally offer me what I want, I reward them and vote for them. I refuse to reward them, because they are less bad. I expect Dems to be the Left. I demand Repubs be the Right or forget it. “The enemy within is more dangerous than the enemy without.”
I voted for Reagan. I voted for the Contract with America. I voted for Tea Party candidates in 2010. I voted 3rd-Party otherwise. I was not fool enough to vote for either Bush, nor the Dems. I kinda know what I am doing in the voting booth. I am not at all fooled by these corrupt people.
Romney is vile. The lies flow. The mask is always on, but slips occasionally. His ambition is naked. He does all the dirty tricks in politics. How can you not see the ugliness?
We should vote for the Republican version of Obama, another sneaky politician? Again? Because we did not learn the last umpteen times to recognize one when we see one? Just how stupid would we have to be to do that?
If Romney is the candidate, I vote for Obama, so I do not see Romney as a candidate again. Maybe then, the Repub establishment will get the message and offer someone acceptable. Well, no, they won’t, but maybe the voters will finally get it. Maybe the voters will finally understand that, if they want the votes of someone like me in the Fall, they damned well better not choose someone like Romney in the Winter and Spring.
You choose Romney, you get Obama. The country will deserve its fate. Yeah, I am determined enough to not swerve in a game of chicken. I am perfectly willing to crash. Are you?
I’m sure your bloody nose has your face feeling all spited and shit.
Somewhere I need to find the link to the first place I saw “Concern Troll” defined.
“You choose Romney, you get Obama.”
No.
Romney is a Rockefeller Republican. And I despise Rockefeller Republicans (having grown up in New York with him as governor.) But Dear Liar is an out and out fascist. He’s not a communist or socialist, because that would mean actual work on his part. Instead he just wants to tell private businesses what to do. Which is a hallmark of fascists.
There are no good candidates in the mix right now (and I voted for Ron Paul back in 1988) but we’ve got to stop the bleeding, then work on getting healed.
Republicans always think that any Republican candidate who looks and acts popular enough to win an election, is the worst sort of tainted goods. We are the “Island of Misfit Toys” party. If any Republican candidate isnt downright repulsive in word and deed to the average person, they are some sort Democrat plant or RINO sell out.
Are Republicans suicidal? This is not a new phenomenon. Every election is a case of waiting to see if the Republicans can set aside their self destructive impulses long enough to actually vote for a candidate but I’ve never seen it this bad before this election cycle. People seem to fear the worst theoretical possibilities about Romney more than the reality presented by Obama’s second term. They seem to believe in Santorum as their savior against Romney with no attention paid to his potential ability to compete with Obama, even when they acknowledge that Santorum’s biggest accomplishment is simply selling that he’s not Romney.
Interestingly enough, last time we did this in 2008, Romney himself was the “not Romney” because he wasnt McCain and most of the folks caterwauling about the oh-so-horrible-Romney this time were doing the same about McCain last time and backing Romney!( Including Santorum, who in 2008 endorsed Romney over McCain). My head gets twisted around trying to follow who hates who and for what reason at what time. It seems almost as though reason and the Republican party live in two different zip codes.
I think its become far more important for Republicans that they maintain some mythical sheen of ideological purity (which no candidate,living or dead, can even begin to live up to) than any chance of winning a campaign.
Somehow we have become more attracted to the bug zapper of “sending a message” than actually being effective in the campaign to win the office of President.
Consider this for just a moment fair comrades of conservatism; Maybe its not the candidate pool thats at fault, but the party membership and its toxic mentality of idealistic martyrdom itself that’s at actually at fault here.
– have his moment. Mitt will lose to the ship come November.
So long as Romney has a solid lead, the “not-Romney” crowd is free to cast their protest votes wherever they wish. Want to see Romney get 70% of the primary vote? Let someone else get within a few delegates of him.
This is just a show, it won’t change anything.
Some of this is a local Michigan stuff, with the voters reacting to both his visiting the state that day and the most inept media hit piece by the Detroit Free Press on Santorum on the same day.
Did you know in 2008 Santorum actually drove an Audi for a quarter of the year? Yep that was the best the leftist Freep could come up with on the occasion of his visit. A great attack if Santorum’s supporters were the UAW and the rest of the Freep’s regular readers.
Some of the result is because there’s a goodly portion of Michigan’s Republicans that are pretty conservative and aren’t pleased with Romney. Then there are some are annoyed with the Michigan establishment GOP that is backing Romney to the hilt and some are just plain annoyed at the whole thing and wishing the GOP quit taking every opportunity to lose an opportunity.
Also, Expect the Michigan’s open primary results to be fun, with lots of Democrats crossing over and voting in the primaries to play with the results.