Disintegration
Here’s the latest bad news from Pakistan:
Taliban fighters and Pakistani government officials today agreed a controversial deal that will lead to a “permanent ceasefire” in the troubled north-western Swat valley, potentially creating ahaven for terrorists 100 miles from the capital, Islamabad.
The agreement, between the militant commander Maulana Fazlullah and local administrators, builds on a previous temporary deal. “They have made commitment that they will observe a permanent ceasefire and we’ll do the same,” Syed Mohammad Javed, the commissioner of Malakand and the local representative of the Pakistani government, told reporters.
Around 1,200 people have been killed and between 250,000 and 500,000 people have fled Swat in 18 months of fierce fighting over the beautiful valley, once a tourist centre. Three thousand militants have been battling up to 12,000 troops.
Here’s what the Guardian story above leaves out — it’s not a “controversial deal” that was just signed between Islamabad and the Taliban. It’s a treaty.
Treaties are signed between states, so there’s a silver lining on this very dark cloud. If Pakistan is giving up the pretense that they maintain sovereignty over the Swat valley, then so can we. We should all adjust our maps to show the Swat region detached from Pakistan and tacked on to that under-governed region we’ve historically (and mistakenly) called Afghanistan.
As I wrote back in November of ’07:
If Pakistan isn’t already a failed state, wait a minute.
Their minute seems to be up.
And now, the trillion-dollar question is “Do we dare do something that might further destabilize a nuclear nation?” I would like to hope that “No” is the easy answer, but know there are no easy answers when considering Pakistan. There’s half a million refugees, three thousand militants, and a ceasefire. I hope this is Pakistan playing rope-a-dope, but I doubt they can pull it off politically even if they can do it militarily. In the end, Pakistan is going to be much more like Afghanistan than anywhere else. There will be the governed areas of Islamabad and Kabul, and then there will be the rest of those countries. It’s probably a lazy illusion that caused us to ever think it was or could have been otherwise.
I just hope those nukes are secure and stay that way, or else India will find them. And then all hell would break loose.
I too see this as a good thing. Same as some of the agreements made a few months ago. It is in effect, Pakistan washing their hands of responsibility for the lawless regions.
It’s if they are saying, “Ok, if you want to be on your own, you’re on your own. Don’t come complaining to us when the Hellfires rain down.”
I have long believed that NWFP should become part of Afghanistan, Baluchistan should go to Iran and the rest should be siphoned off to India.
Afghanistan isn’t really a country so Iran should get the Dari speaking areas around Herat ,and tadjikistan and Uzbekistan should be given the areas controlled by those ethnic groups respectively. A pushtooistan would be formed from all the eastern Afghan provinces and the NWFP.
The hazaras should get a a semi autonomous state alligned with their fellow Si`ites in iran.
Hey UN!,Let’s do it now and save the world and the local peoples more grief.
If the world doesn’t do something about the talibaan completely taking over two sovereign states they will be sorry.
sorry about the typos.