Wargaming the Electoral College
August 21st, 2008 - 8:08 am
For the first time, Election Projection has McCain in the lead. A very narrow 274-264 lead, but a lead nonetheless.
The map’s two surprises are Colorado and Ohio. Ohio’s state Republican party is in such disarray — and so is the local economy — that I have a hard time seeing Ohio in any color but blue.
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See [link removed by author who refuses to host comment Google-bombing comment spam]
susan
Susan,
The “real issue” is whichever one *I* choose to post on *my* blog.
Your comment is spam, and so I’ve removed the link.
Steve,
I think Susan is a spambot that places that same comment onto any blog post that uses the words “electoral” and “college” together in a sentence.
She’sIt’s hit me three times in three weeks.It’s kinda fun to read through “susan’s” comment, and imagine it being spoken by Al Gore.
All it’s missing is the phrase “lock-box.” But the word “battle ground” in quotes works much the same.
Not that Al would have a reason to push popular vote spam ….
Ron Paul, Ron Paul, Ron Paul, Ron Paul!
Sorry, Steve. Just had to do it!
I think the real point here is that Obama and the gang have spent about 5 times as much as McCain in this campaign and what they have accomplished is to end up in second place against a 72 year old man who isnt even the favorite candidate of his own party.
If thats not enough to get your attention, remember that in the primary season, Obama didnt do very will in elections, he did very well in Caucases. Elections are private, where Caucases are public pronouncements and are highly manipulated by the party. In the primary election, the polls always showed Obama winning by a large number, but in many, many of those cases, when it came time to vote, Obama lost to Hillary. Polls in most elections always have a “bubble”, but in this election there is a clear bubble for Obama and for a very clear and understandable reason. People dont want to say to the pollster or in public that they wont vote for Obama for fear of being called a bigot, and yet with this in context,we see that the polls are close. Polls involving Obama are always going to be artifically high because of that factor.
What that tells me is that this election isnt really close and if this “Closeness” continues to hold it will end up as a big McCain win. Obama needs to lead by over 10% to have any chance at all to win. That “bubble” between Poll numbers and actual votes is real and it will determine this election.
Obama should be walking away with this election, instead he is working hard to just keep his head above water. Why is that? Well to paraphrase P.J. O’Rourke: “Old age and and guile will beat youth and a bad haircut every day”.
Democrats do well in federal elections in the first half, but tend to run out of steam in the second half. When it comes to fumbling the super bowl in the second half of the game, Obama is well on his way to out-Kerry Kerry if not Out-Dukakis Dukakis with his ham handed amature style actions. This week alone he has decided to compare the infrastructure of the US of A to Communist China, and not in a the right way either and he has just compared the barbarian armies of “New Imperial Russia” to the United States and if thats not enough to put the baking soda in the vinegar, he’s decided to start talking about real estate, whilehe lives in a house purchased by questionable means and has a former VP of Countrywide on his staff.
Oh, and thanks to Czar Putin, we arent living in the post 1992 “peace dividend” world that got Bill Clinton elected anymore, we are living in the good old-bad old “theres a bear in the woods” world again. We on the right and left might debate whether or not the Jihadis are a real threat, but everyone knows what it means when Russia decides to go shopping on its border for new “living space” and what it means when the Russians decide it would be a hoot to house Backfire Bombers in Cuba. This summer, the Russians have changed the game, this is not the same election that we started last summer. Obamas campaign is still stuck on 2002 decisions and it will cost him and cost him dearly.
The only thing saving Obama in the next week is that all of the oxygen is about to get sucked out of the air by the horde of mouthbreathers that are about to descend on Denver. Im sure they are all looking forward to this convention, but I think that this next week will likely prove to be a week long “Wellstone funeral” for the Democrats. They will love the feeling of wall-to-wall anticapitalist, antiamerican antibush, orgiastic debauchery, but the rest of the country will feel like they were a bus load of back country Kansans who were dropped off accidentally in the Castro district of San Francisco.
This convention is going to be one where the entire week will be dedicated to showing one class of victim after another as evidence of the evil America that needs to be controlled( The subtext being it can only be controlled by the most corrupt political party in existence since Cicero was working the lobby in Imperial Rome). My prediction is that it will fall flat on its face, and no, I dont think Obama will come out and say sister-soldja style and say ” This is not the Democrat party I know!”. Obama might be a good “speecifier”, but he’s wearing the cultural cement shoes provided by the left.
Americans do not want to be victims or be victimized, they want to win. They will vote for someone,anyone who will let them win, not someone who will “get even” for them. They will not vote for someone who simply doesnt believe in his heart in the greatness of this country and its place at the front of the world.
Obama doesnt, McCain does. Game Over.
I guess there are still people who think the Electoral college is a bad thing.
But a Constitutional Amendment? Ha! Good luck.
Other points about caucuses: they have fewer participants, said participants are in effect “professional” party members, and tend to be True Believers. In other words, a very vocal, excitable minority of the public (for either side). That sounds like Obama’s base to me.
Recall that Hillary beat Obama pretty well here in Ohio during the primary. It’s not a sure thing either way; consider the fact that Bush barely won the state in ’04 (c. 52/48), but an anti-gay marriage amendment passed on the order of 70/30.
Even if the PUMAs don’t vote for McCain here, it’s quite possible they won’t work as hard, or at all, for Barry, and that could strongly affect results.
I agree with varifrank that the many whackjob fringe groups such as Tent State and Recreate68 cause a big problem: do Denver and the Dem party leaders let the crazies run free? Do they want to appear repressive, or just insane?
Tough call.