The analysts at CNN attribute a 7 point jump from their last poll in Governor Chris Christie’s support to all the publicity surrounding his landslide win earlier this month.
That’s logical, although three years out you might expect a beauty contest. What’s interesting is that Christie’s margin came at the expense of support for Rep. Paul Ryan:
Twenty-four percent of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP questioned in the survey say they’d be likely to support Christie for the Republican nomination, up seven percentage points from a CNN poll in early September. Back then, Christie and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the House Budget chairman and the 2012 Republican vice presidential nominee, were virtually tied at the top of the GOP list, with Christie at 17% and Ryan at 16%.
But Ryan, who’s stayed mostly away from the political spotlight the past few months, has dropped to 11%, putting him in third place, slightly behind Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, at 13%. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who like Paul has made multiple trips this year to the states that kick off the presidential primary and caucus calendar, like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, stands at 10% in the survey, the only other Republican White House hopeful to get double-digit support.
Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is at 9% in the poll, with longtime Texas Gov. and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry at 7%, and former two-term Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who battled eventual GOP nominee Mitt Romney deep into last year’s primaries and caucuses, each at 6%.
The poll suggests a wide divide over income among Republican voters.
“Among Republicans making more than $50,000, Christie wins 32% support, 20 points higher than Cruz, Ryan, or Marco Rubio, all of whom get 12% among higher-income GOPers, and 23 points higher than Paul,” said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “But among Republicans who make less than $50,000 a year, Christie’s support drops 19 points, only good enough for second place behind Paul.”
On the Democratic side, Hillary is the choice of 63% of party members. But what if she doesn’t run?
If that’s the case, the poll suggests that 43% of Democrats would support the Vice President, with Warren at 17%, Cuomo at 15% and O’Malley at 6%.
Warren’s popularity is pretty much with the internet left. She has little name recognition outside of Massachusetts. That may change, but it’s not likely she could challenge Clinton, who is going to have more money and a bigger organization than she had in 2008.