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by
Rick Moran

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September 14, 2013 - 2:07 pm
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The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) “fifth assessment report,” will slightly dial back its predictions of how much the planet will warm over the coming decades.

Outside of the numbers, there appears to be an acknowledgement — finally — that there has been a significant pause in warming trends and that climate sensitivity to CO2 may have been overestimated.

The lower predictions are slight, but significant, says Matt Ridley, author of the article:

Specifically, the draft report says that “equilibrium climate sensitivity” (ECS)—eventual warming induced by a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which takes hundreds of years to occur—is “extremely likely” to be above 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), “likely” to be above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) and “very likely” to be below 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 Fahrenheit). In 2007, the IPPC said it was “likely” to be above 2 degrees Celsius and “very likely” to be above 1.5 degrees, with no upper limit. Since “extremely” and “very” have specific and different statistical meanings here, comparison is difficult.

Still, the downward movement since 2007 is clear, especially at the bottom of the “likely” range. The most probable value (3 degrees Celsius last time) is for some reason not stated this time.

A more immediately relevant measure of likely warming has also come down: “transient climate response” (TCR)—the actual temperature change expected from a doubling of carbon dioxide about 70 years from now, without the delayed effects that come in the next century. The new report will say that this change is “likely” to be 1 to 2.5 degrees Celsius and “extremely unlikely” to be greater than 3 degrees. This again is lower than when last estimated in 2007 (“very likely” warming of 1 to 3 degrees Celsius, based on models, or 1 to 3.5 degrees, based on observational studies).

Most experts believe that warming of less than 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels will result in no net economic and ecological damage. Therefore, the new report is effectively saying (based on the middle of the range of the IPCC’s emissions scenarios) that there is a better than 50-50 chance that by 2083, the benefits of climate change will still outweigh the harm.

The benefits of a slightly warming earth are critical when you consider that an increase in arable lands in the north would mean we’d be able to feed increased populations:

Warming of up to 1.2 degrees Celsius over the next 70 years (0.8 degrees have already occurred), most of which is predicted to happen in cold areas in winter and at night, would extend the range of farming further north, improve crop yields, slightly increase rainfall (especially in arid areas), enhance forest growth and cut winter deaths (which far exceed summer deaths in most places). Increased carbon dioxide levels also have caused and will continue to cause an increase in the growth rates of crops and the greening of the Earth—because plants grow faster and need less water when carbon dioxide concentrations are higher.

Up to two degrees of warming, these benefits will generally outweigh the harmful effects, such as more extreme weather or rising sea levels, which even the IPCC concedes will be only about 1 to 3 feet during this period.

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All Comments   (20)
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If the computer models that predict global warming -- oops! climate change!-- are run backwards in time, the models do not recognize known historic fluctuations in climate such as the Little Ice Age of the 17th century, the Medieval Warm Period of the 12th century, or the Roman Climate Optimum of 100 BC - 250 AD. Therefore the models are wrong, which isn't surprising because the underlying theory of atmospheric circulation is poorly developed.
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
the lying frauds, alarmist warmist climatologists, now exposed as the lying cheats they are, attempting to deceive us they aren't really bought and paid for shills of Agenda 21, purchased by government grants that greatly enriched them and gave them fame, now want us to think it was simply harmless mistakes...

Go read the climategate emails again. these fraudsters should be imprisoned, we squandered HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS because of their lies....
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
What an interestiing way of admitting they lied.
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
Nick Taylor, you do know that the polar ice, at both ends of the globe, now appears to be increasing.
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
"The most plausible explanation has always been that the scientists have simply been wrong"

No . . . the IPCC report doesn't support that conclusion, and neither does the underlying science. And it's not a "meme" - the science underlying climate change/global warming goes back to the 1800's, and is supported not just by models, but by studying the Earth's response to changes in orbit, volcanic eruptions, sudden releases of carbon, and impacts by asteroids during its history.

I would love to believe that a few years of slower warming of surface temperature mean that we no longer need to concern ourselves, but we would be foolish to do so. We know that 1998 was an exceptionally hot year because of a very large El Nino - a periodic event where the oceans give up a great deal of heat energy to the atmosphere. Since that time, the oceans have been absorbing an extraordinary amount of heat energy. Between melting polar ice, atmosphere and the oceans, there has been no slowdown in warming of the Earth.

The IPCC is not lowering its projections of future warming, so how can it "keep lowering" them?
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
So in 1998, the climate scientists were telling us to disregard the anomalous high temps created by El Nino because it wasn't representative of global warming models? Not in my universe. They were pushing the record temps as PROOF of global warming.

Then they were been trying to deny the lack of warming for 15 years until it became clear that it had to be addressed. Now you write it off as a hiccup? A hiccup COMPLETELY unpredicted in EVERY SINGLE climate model? How many other hiccups don't the climate models foresee? Did these models predict heat absorption by the oceans? Climatologists miss (as in - didn't consider) two [apparently] very significant forcers that completely throw a monkey wrench into the predictions, yet claim every thing is going by theory. Excuse me, THAT'S enough proof to show that the "experts" don't know enough to predict the end of the world. Period.

The IPCC admits climate models are way off but the theory is sound? What the hell do you base that on when the whole theory is based on these models? If the models are off, then the theory is off. And I'll remind you that these are the same climate models that predict Armeggedon and the reason that we all have to make massive sacrifices to avoid the end of civilization.

It's laughable that you still insist that global warming is proceeding as predicted. It appears to me the only reason that you think that man-made global warming exists is because your theory says it does. What a wonderful circular argument. Only blind faith gives someone that much moxie. You hyped your doomsday scenario on these theories, so don't try to pretend that their failures have no bearing on the climate debate.
48 weeks ago
48 weeks ago Link To Comment
Please read the article today about the over abundance of Polar Ice. You seem to be working with Fat Albert's old script.
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
Been drinking a bit too much elixir from The Goracle's supply eh?

Do your homework - the polar caps have been putting on a prodigious amount of ice these past few months. The Arctic ice was predicted to have vanished in 2013 - not only has it not vanished it has added ice - and in August of all months! The temperatures around the world have on average been FLAT! Read the IPCC's own report if you don't believe me. This isn't to say that warming isn't happening on the longer term - but that the 'prognosticators' from the left in science circles didn't even get the short term patters right. The IPCC's own report is a tacit admission of that fact.

Do your homework!
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
Its not "a few years", its been a decade and a half of flat temps which none of the vaunted models predict.

And as noted, if the new IPCC "predictions" include in their lower bound increases that have net benefits then all the apocalyptic rhetoric is deflated.
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
Amazing, what ever happend Global Warming, now it's Climate Change,hmmm. Climate continually changes over the years. In the 1970's it was global cooling the media was babbling about, the 1600's to the early 1800's have been called the Little Ice Age, and to keep it short, there was the real, big Ice Age'.
Some people need causes to justify their existence and give themselves ego boosts. Plus you can make some money off it, some of them actually believe it.
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
I suggest a new caption.

CLIMATE GUESSES ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
No, No, NO! The science is settled - it has been for many years - algore has spoken, no new evidence can ever change that - never, so shut up!!
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
Right now there is enormous behind the scenes pressure, and probably some more journal fraud of the kind we've seen in every previous IPCC report to try to undermine any conclusion that puts the report behind what is essentially the skeptic position.

Its going to be hilarious.
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
There is waaay too much money at stake for all of these global warming worshipers to just admit they are wrong and have been wrong and walk away from it all. Many of them have made a living at this fraud for decades and know that they have no other viable way of generating enough income to survive on - literally.

There are thousands of 'non-profits' out there that claim to have 'climate change' as their mission and there is no way they are going to give it up until every last penny has been milked from governments around the world (and a lot of private sector money as well).

So, although honest scientists will continue to report the facts about this issue, the fraudsters will continue to play to the fear and guilt of the mindless minions around the world who believe everything they hear on the subject and will continue to believe the world is about to end due to 'climate change'. And that is what the fraudsters are counting on.
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
I wish in vain that you were wrong. It would be in vain, though.
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
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