A survey released Saturday by the Democratic pollster-founded Public Policy Polling said that 19 percent of respondents in Ohio have already cast their votes for president in early balloting.
Out of those who have voted early, 76 say they voted for President Obama compared to 24 percent for Mitt Romney. Of those who have not voted yet, Romney has a 51-45 advantage.
The new overall numbers have Obama up 51-46, compared to the 49-45 spread when the poll was conducted two weeks earlier.
As far as the vice presidential debate, 46 percent of likely Ohio voters polled picked Joe Biden as the winner while 37 percent picked Paul Ryan. Independents favored Biden’s performance 44 percent to 32 percent.
PPP’s results are from a sample that was 40 percent Democratic, 36 percent Republican, and 24 percent Independent/other.
“One thing clear from our poll: Republican efforts to make a big deal out of Libya aren’t succeeding. By a 51/43 margin, voters trust Obama more than Romney on dealing with that issue,” said PPP’s Tom Jensen.
Romney made major gains in his favorability numbers in most of the states PPP has polled since the presidential debate, but his rating has stayed at 45 percent in Ohio.
Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot 44-42 even though House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) only has a 33 percent approval rating in his state.
The math of this has been pretty convincingly debunked right here on PJ media. Do you guys not read your own page?
“One thing clear from our poll: Republican efforts to make a big deal out of Libya aren’t succeeding.”
Republican efforts? Really? So no big deal otherwise? This country and it’s people are SO screwed.
Why? Because they don’t like Romney politicizing a tragedy?
Well, this poll seems something that can be looked at one day by a guy with sufficient knowledge and platform to see if the methodology and assumptions are reasonable or not. For the key to scientific integrity is never trying to spin one’s work after publication, but to allow it to stand on its own.
I realize math is hard, but perhaps you shouldn’t JUST copy-paste press releases? I mean, I realize that journalism is hard too, but there is training available. It is PARTICULARLY pernicious to copy-paste when you’re being spun. And you ARE being spun.
http://minx.cc/?post=333823
The poll cries, “stop! stop! talking about Bengazi” – who is talking? Big Bird.
Has anyone ever done a study of the Bradley effect on EXIT polling?
Democratic pollster? Ann Coulter says polling data NEVER favors Republicans, so I take this one, like most, with a grain of salt.
I’m guessing this ‘Democratic pollster’ wants us to believe this thing is over, so the rest of us shouldn’t even bother voting.
Spot on, ChiefEOD. So according to Jensen, four people killed in Libya, including an Ambassador, along with denied requests for more security, all while Govt Motors Chevy Volts are being sent to Vienna, isn’t a big deal and Obama and his corrupt State Dept are getting away with malfeasance, at the very least. Thanks Mr. Jensen! We’ll just ‘Move on’ then . . . . . . to a new President.
I know Ohio has lost population but I didn’t realize it was that bad! As of Friday about 60,000 had already early voted through there are something like . If that’s 20% of the total then only about 300,000 ballots will be cast in total. That’s compared to around 5.62 million on 2008. Seriously. Does PPP have a clue about statistics.
Now over 1 million absentee ballots have been requested but they are still mailing those out and many people who request them never return them. Some people who travel a lot for work request them as an insurance policy just in case their schedule changes. I used to do so after I missed voting because of a trip that came out of the blue.
Why does Bridget Johnson even post at PJM?
Don’t ask.
Couple big big problems with this poll, and not just on the early voting segment, which has already been thoroughly debunked.
First, they under poll Independents in order to give 40% of the sample to democrats. This sample makes it next to impossible for Republicans to win, since it means that they would have to win independents by an overwhelming margin to make up for its small size. This of course also affects the result in questions about domestic policy, foreign affairs, etc.
The second problem is that, PPP’s been engaging is advocacy polling lately, and this poll is no exception. They asked a racially charged question and placed it BEFORE asking people who they were going to support. Advocacy polling is considered beyond the pale by legitimate pollsters and statisticians. You simply do not do it unless you’re specifically trying to skew the results in a certain direction.
So, no, PPP is not a good poll, and this poll in particular should not be used to gauge the outcome of Ohio.
I live in Ohio and this sounds bogus to me. It contradicts other reports I’ve read about absentee ballot requests, and my own gut feeling about what’s going on in my local area. Personally, I’m furious with the US Postal Service which seems to have lost the absentee ballot that was mailed to me almost 2 weeks ago!!
Is that you, Chicken Little?
I wonder how many of these “early voters” will be voting in Florida on November 6.
PPP is a P-P-Pile of crap: http://betsyspage.blogspot.com/2012/10/why-ill-never-trust-ppps-polls.html
PPP’s lips are moving
Is Ohio really that parochial? Like so many other groups, I have this much ” ” sympathy for their afflictions these past four years.
As my old man told me a half century ago, “People are their own worst enemies”.
No, Ohio’s not that bad. Bridget just didn’t bother to think before copy-and-pasting the press release.
Any mention of a PPP poll without the requisite partisan warning that the outfit is employed by and staffed with Clinton-era Democrat hacks is a mistake.
The real number of voters who have voted early in Ohio is more like 1.9%, and is just as ridiculously false as the notion that Obamee has a lead in Ohio or any other swing state.
A massive red-state tsunami is just a few weeks away now. I know not a single person who plans to vote for Obamee. I’ve asked dozens. Every time it’s “I’m voting straight Republican” or in the case of liberals, it’s “I’m staying home.”
It will make 2010 look like a dream for the Democrats.
It very well might be the end of the party for good.
Right on target, Lightwave! Keep your head down to avoid the “friendly fire” from our supposed allies in PJ Media and keep working for a big victory in November!
GIGO writ large.
One fifth have already voted, three fifths will vote on November 6th and the other fifth will vote after the election but before the Democrats find all those lost ballot boxes and voting machines.