Democrats Admit: Romney Way Up with Indies
Democracy Corps — that’s James Carville and Stan Greenberg’s polling outfit — has Romney up 16 points with independents.
16 points.
Voter ID typically runs low-to-mid 30s for Republicans and Democrats alike, leaving the remainder as Independents. What’s that mean? If Carville and Greenberg have it right (and many other polls show Romney way up with Indies), it can mean only one thing: Democrats are being oversampled, and grossly.
Admittedly, voter ID is a tricky thing to measure, and trickier still to sample. But most polls I’ve seen have had D samples the same or higher than in 2008, when Black Jesus was still bringing us the hope and change and lowering the oceans and all that stuff. And they’ve R samples the same or lower than 2008, even though the GOP managed to flip 63 House seats in 2010.
The game is rigged. Don’t let that stop you from playing.
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The mass market polls are trying to shape opinion instead of reporting it. Ignore them. The only poll that counts happens on election day (and no, it isn’t the exit polls). Just remember, if it isn’t close, they can’t cheat.
We have to turn out and take the results past the margin of illegal voters, dead voters, voting maching malfunctions and an amry of litigating laweyrs.
Personally I think the slanted polls are doing us a favor. We should ALWAYS campaign and fight as though we’re five points behind.
I believe we will see a Romney landslide, however, the Iowa Electronic Markets give me pause. http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres12.html
Put me down for expecting a Carter/Reagan level beat down.
I don’t believe that the pollsters are deliberately slanting their results. What they are is befuddled – the game has changed and they are trying to make some sense of it.
“At Pew Research, the response rate of a typical telephone survey was 36% in 1997 and is just 9% today.”
http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/
The article explores the reasons and concludes that there is considerable self-selection bias. An example of how this skews results is the exit polling of the Wisconsin recall where it showed Walker losing badly. We know how that turned out.
Polls work somewhat well in ordinary times. These are not ordinary times.
I don’t believe in that poll or any other poll that is not LV and the D/R/I is about 35/35/30. The MSM and the Demorat polls are bias and skewed to make believe that Ozero is ahead when he is not. Nov can’t get here fast enough….
Another thing that is beyond my brain is, how Romney is ahead of obama in Independents and this poll says that he still losing by two points…lol….They really got trouble understanding MATH. Like I said before Liberalism is a mental disease.
You obviously have failed to factor in the metabolically-challenged voters (notoriously unwilling to speak with pollsters, so the polling organizations have to guess), who will overwhelmingly support Our Nero Zero. Zombie Apocalypse, anyone?