If you’re one of those political junkies who really like to get down in the weeds of analysis and observation, chances are you’re already a fan of Nate Silver.
His 538 blog is always an interesting read and today is no exception. Silver statistically analyzes the risk Mitt Romney took in choosing Paul Ryan as his running mate.
Vice-presidential choices are inherently risky to a degree, but the risks are asymmetric, and weighted toward the downside: It’s far easier to name choices who undermined campaigns than those who helped them. The best way to mitigate that downside risk is to select someone who has been tested on a national stage before, ideally by having run for president themselves — or failing that, by having been elected multiple times from a large and diverse state.
Mr. Ryan is a national figure of some repute — before Saturday morning, his national name recognition was about 50 percent — but he has never been elected to anything larger than his Congressional district of about 700,000 people. Members of the House of Representatives have only occasionally been selected as running mates. The last one on a winning ticket was John Nance Garner, the speaker of the House, in 1932. The last time an ordinary member of the House was elected vice president, and the last Republican, was more than 100 years ago: in 1908, when William Howard Taft and James S. Sherman, a New York congressman, were chosen by voters. (Coincidentally, that fall was also the last time that the Chicago Cubs won the World Series.)
Politics 101 suggests that you play toward the center of the electorate. Although this rule has more frequently been violated when it comes to vice-presidential picks, there is evidence that presidential candidates who have more “extreme” ideologies (closer to the left wing or the right wing than the electoral center) underperform relative to the economic fundamentals.
Various statistical measures of Mr. Ryan peg him as being quite conservative. Based on his Congressional voting record, for instance, the statistical system DW-Nominate evaluates him as being roughly as conservative as Representative Michele Bachmann, the controversial congresswoman of Minnesota.
By this measure, in fact, which rates members of the House and Senate throughout different time periods on a common ideology scale, Mr. Ryan is the most conservative Republican member of Congress to be picked for the vice-presidential slot since at least 1900. He is also more conservative than any Democratic nominee was liberal, meaning that he is the furthest from the center. (The statistic does not provide scores for governors and other vice-presidential nominees who never served in Congress.)
Silver’s statistical model gives President Obama a 70% chance of winning at this point. (Intrade has been hovering around 60% for Obama for months. Obama gained 0.3% today.) Faced with stubbornly static polls, Romney needed to do something to shake up the race.
But as Silver points out, while Ryan is a risky choice, he was also an intelligent choice. By no means was Ryan a hail mary toss or a cry for help. And as Silver points out, it is likely that Romney brought his experience in gauging companies ripe for a turnaround to bear on the decision. With his campaign in trouble, the candidate made a realistic self-assessment and made a rational choice based on all the other factors, including other candidates who were available.
We’ll see over the next few weeks whether Romney chose wisely.
“He is also more conservative than any Democratic nominee was liberal, meaning that he is the furthest from the center.”
comrade henry wallace(vp ’41-’45) couldn’t be reached for commet
No one is further right than Obutthead is left…
This is what I’ve been saying. Ryan, a hero to me, is a very risky pick as a VP.
In some ways, I admire Romney, a rarity, for doing it, but that doesn’t make it smart.
Ryan’s strengths aren’t needed for the campaign. Romney is already too wonkish. The people Ryan excites will vote for Romney anyway. And having to endlessly explain Ryan’s plan will distract voters from the disaster in the White House. Why on earth do we want to open the third rail of politics THIS year when the fate of the country hangs in the balance. It’s stupid.
Right man. Wrong year.
Silver’s right. The odds of victory just went down quite a bit. Rubio, Pawlenty and McDonnel would have been better choices.
Finally someone who gets it.
Even Ronald Reagan didn’t say anything about Medicare. There is too much at stake in this election.
Rubio would have brought Florida, some Latinos, and Tea Party. With Ryan, you can kiss Florida goodbye (too
many seniors will be spooked about Medicare) and with it the election.
Can anyone explain to me why he didn’t pick Rubio?
Rubio’s decision to join the attack on Michelle Bachmann and support the Muslim Brotherhood’s operatives in America will haunt him for some time…..terrible decision, and completely unexpected to many, including myself.
I hear you brother, but the only thing I care about is winning the election. Rubio would help. Ryan may make for an Obama landslide. Most people don’t pay that much attention to politics. Tell them that someone is going to take away their Medicare, and they’ll vote for Obama. They did 4 years ago.
I felt exactly as you do, but it seems that the seniors are way ahead of us on this. Gallup polls show that they really like him- for one, his reforms don’t affect current seniors, they only kick in for people under 55. I think now that this is a non-issue, or even a strength, as Obama has Medicare on the chopping block to help pay for Obamacare. So Ryan has high favorability ratings (59%) and seniors prefer his plan over Obama’s 48 to 42%.
As for younger people, well, they’re pretty realistic. They know that without major changes these entitlement programs won’t be there for them, anyway.
I still prefer Rubio to an extent, but some of that is identity politics. That’s not supposed to be what we’re about. Ryan has the POTENTIAL to appeal to the majority of Americans who are tired of all the spending at a time when they’re watching their own budgets tighten and who simply want a chance to succeed without government sucking the life out of them. Whether R & R can tap into this feeling remains to be seen. Maybe we as a people aren’t desperate enough to realize taxpayer funded benefits have gotten too expensive, or maybe we’ve already turned into a nation of people dependent on the government.
The folks on the 80 Entitlement Programs (80, really??) don’t pay taxes, so the National Debt is not their problem. So they don’t mind running the country into Bankruptcy because they won’t have to pay anything back. Just keep the checks coming. The rest that don’t pay tax want to keep the (Obama) status quo. With that, and the gays and the Atheists and the Unions, this is going to be a tough election. R&R are the right people to fix it, problem is, they are going to scare the hell out of the folks mentioned above. So if any of them were going to vote Republican, they won’t now.
What do you think businesses are going to do if Obama gets re-elected? I am guessing any business with any sense and/or a couple of bucks will be heading for the borders, leaving those that stay behind to pay more.
Thanks for spelling it out…….
It strikes me that Romney had to burn one in order to consolidate the party just before the convention. He shouldn’t have been in a situation where he had to play to his base over aggressively pursuing the campaign, but that’s where he was and that’s what he had to do. Fighting out of a hole in an axe fight doesn’t necessarily end the contest, though it limits the strategy for sure…………
Outstanding comment, weo, by which I mean I agree. I think some conservatives are tying themselves up in knots to see this pick as a stroke of genius, when in reality it wins Romney nothing and may lose him everything.
Please explain to me how Rubio who is not a natural born citizen would have been a better choice? Talking heads, including Sean Hannity, continue to push Rubio and I’ve yet to understand how conservatives consider an anchor baby a good choice. Rubio was four years old when his parents became naturalized citizens… therefore, he is NOT a NBC and not eligible to be vice president. Am I missing something?
Remenber that Gerald Ford was chosen to fill the VP slot, and he was a representative. Ryan is qualified because of his involvement in the budget process that the Senate has refused to participate in for the last three years. The leadership in Congress have americans beliving that continuing resolutions are budgets, and that’s a lie. The last VP’s to be president was George H. Bush, and before that Johnson, Nixon, and Truman. The economy and the budget are the two most importtant issues for this election cycle, and Romney-Ryan will make the case for getting america back on track. Obama administration’s adding five trillion dollars to the national debt, a failed 780 million dollar stimulus that did not keep unemployment under eight percent as President Obama had promised are the two top reasons why Washington is in need of a change, so we can move forward with a new administration.
And as Silver points out, it is likely that Romney brought his experience in gauging companies ripe for a turnaround to bear on the decision.
Eggs-actly.
Seemed like Rubio was the absolute best choice out there – helps with the Tea Party vote, the Latin vote, the young vote, the Florida vote. And Marco is a very eloquent speaker – he really hits home runs when he speaks. I’m sure Romney had valid reasoning, and I like Ryan, but to pick up votes not already in hand, seems like a swing and a miss – a foul ball at best.
I consider our ticket to be by the numbers good strategy.
We have the most centrist candidate on the top of the ticket, and Mitt’s job is to sell the center. We put the more extreme candidate on the bottom of the ticket to make the Conservative & Libertarian wings of the party happy, which Ryan does quite well.
Much better than having a Socialist Ideologue who cannot be trusted to speak without a teleprompter on the top of the ticket and a Bozo for VP.
We are not running against Kennedy & Truman, we are running against Obama & Biden. Not exactly a pair of competent centrists.
I believe that in both cases, our candidate is closer to the wishes of the American people and in both cases the debates will close the deal for us.
Not knowing enough about Ryan, I just started reading “Path to Prosperity”, I went to the Medicare and started reading. Sounds good to me, and I don’t see anywhere where it say’s that retired people will not get coverage. Get ready to rubble with the left. Become informed. Here’s the link:
http://budget.house.gov/uploadedfiles/pathtoprosperity2013.pdf
Nate Silver entirely mistakes the part of the game Romney wante to change.
ut
Obama’s record gives the election to any serious opponenet candidate, unless the Republican base has every reason to stay home. Romney is an exellent reason to stay home, he would be an excellent candidate for the Dem nomination.
If Romney plans on losing 3% in the middle by selecting Ryan, but this ensures 3.1% from the base who would have stayed home show up, he’s ahead.
That’s the part of the game Romney is trying to affect.
The support from the base engendered by Ryan will be paper thin, it will not survive many mis-steps from Mitt at all.
” wante to change.
ut”
!=
wanted to change.
It lso beggars belief Mr. Silver actually believes Romney is in a trailing position RE Obama.
” wante to change.
ut”
!=
wanted to change.
It also beggars belief Mr. Silver actually believes Romney is in a trailing position RE Obama.
Mr. Silver stating that Dear Leader has a 70% chance of winning ruins his credibility with me….ANYBODY could beat this clown if they would simply “out” him for what and who he is….the facts, witnesses, videos – all the evidence you would need is everywhere. Make the choice ideological and you crush the Communist Kenyan.
Guess how far right or left all depends on: 1) who is measuring; and 2) where they place the center. Biden is a big lefty that got away for years with an undeserved reputation as a somewhat moderate foreing policy expert. He was neither, but the MSM controlled the narrative.
I like this pick of Ryan. Romney’s natural base is the center of the political spectrum. I daresay that even the independents will move in his direction. Where Ryan comes in is in Right of Center section of the Republican Party. Yes, even the TeaParty and the Libertarians. His budgeting skills will prove to be an asset as a whole nation is aware and mostly concerned about the debt. But also his cultural conservativeness will provide Romney with strength on the right as well.
For the quality of ALL of the VP candidates (and they were outstanding, all of them) Ryan brings necessary skills to the fight that’s coming and very little baggage. I think this will change the conversation to a subject that Obama cannot defend and Biden cannot debate. This is good. Throw in the fact that Ryan is Catholic and the Catholic Church has take a few hits and you have natural allies Romney gets a well-done from me.
I notice that 538blog is part of DOTnytimesDOTcom.
Not that this is necessarily a sign of evil intent, but – fan of stats that I am – I found little grist for my fact-mill to ponder while he presented the results of his “50,000″ runs of the data on elections.
I’m a programmer and, just as one example, have run hundreds of thousands – probably more than a million – deals of cards at 21 to prove or disprove the betting strategies outlined in the 1970s book, “Beat the Dealer.”
If I was gonna start a blog about my findings, it seems to me that it would be incumbent on me to show my algorithms and methodology.
For all of 538blog’s numbers and graphs, I didn’t see his methodology, except for him saying he didn’t use certain polls or “non economic” data.
I mean, he’s probably within 3 or 5 percent of error. Or hopefully 10. But how can we know?
For what it’s worth, I once took all the race results from a full season at Golden Gate Fields. (horse racing) I then ran the results against two touters, my best friend’s “handicapping method,” the favorite at post time and random chance.
Random chance won by more than 40% over the next best method. Sounds good, right? Random chance won less than 34% of the time on over 100,000 runs of the “data.”
Computer models are sexy to us number-crunchers. But they are very objective and very limited. They only have the criteria that are built into them.
Ryan is a smart pick. He is a “real” Republican and not a “RINO”. He’s from Wisconsin. He’s Catholic. He’s not a Senator and so his selection won’t upset GOP chances of toppling the odious Harry Reid.
Now, all Romney and Ryan have to do is to make the case that it is Obama who is waging war against women.
The conventional wisdom only goes but so far in an unconventional election year.
Obviously, Romney judges that his biggest problem is not how to win independents but how to energize the base.
As to how well Ryan plays, that might depend on Ryan himself, who seems more than capable of articulating a reasonable position. I know, it’s a novel idea for Republicans, but they might, they just might, be more successful if they actually, you know, try to articulate and defend their ideas. It worked for Reagan, after all.
I take this as a good sign. It tells me that Romney is not playing not to lose. He’s not doing the Prevent Defense. He’s playing to win. We haven’t seen that, in a Republican, for a very long time. Too long.
all romney needs to do to “energize the base” is grow a pair and attack the failure in the white house
i believe the ryan pick was a move to refocus on the economy and have a person capable of articulating concepts of free-market econ 101 versus commie 101
when the left repackages the “grandma off the cliff” ads, romeny/ryan can demonstrate the brilliance of collectivism by showing hundreds of millions of people being thrown off the cliff
as far as this “right/left/center” gobbledegook discussion – i’m not buying
when our current left is far left in ideology and our republican right is in the center (on a good day) then, by default, the center is already in the “ostrich head-in-the-sand” lib land
in other words, our current center is already in the lefty sphere and to bring the rest of the country up to speed on this is paramount if any attacks on obamanation are to have some bite
“when our current left is far left in ideology and our republican right is in the center (on a good day) then, by default, the center is already in the “ostrich head-in-the-sand” lib land”
You are assuming a bell curve ditribution. I think the real histogram would show a slante, two-humped plateau, with the libs in the administration in the farther from center, lower hump.
I don’t see how anyone gives a gives a guy with under 50% approval ratings and strong net-negative approval a 70% chance of winning. I just don’t get that.