Two new snapshot polls released today tell pretty much the same story — Mitt Romney is losing ground to Barack Obama.
I suppose when you hammer a candidate with lies and distortions that include murder, felony tax evasion, outsourcing jobs, favoring the rich, and being incapable of handling foreign policy — all in the space of two weeks — it’s going to take its toll on his popularity.
First, the Fox News Poll shows Romney trailing Obama 49-40. And the CNN Poll shows Obama up 52-45. No doubt there is some bias in the sampling, but it would be difficult to make a case that Romney has not lost ground recently.
These snapshots of the race about a month before the national conventions are liable to change very quickly once Romney announces his choice of running mate, and the conventions shape opinions of both candidates.
The good news for Romney is that there is still plenty of time to make up ground. It would help if he could change the national conversation and get the focus off of him and on to Obama. One way to do that would be to announce his choice of running mate immediately — something he may do as early as Friday.
And it better be a good one.
It would also be helpful if he tightened up his messaging by making sure all of his staffers are on the same page. The response of his spokesperson to the steel worker ad — that if he lived in Massachusetts he would have had Romneycare — was a disaster. That’s the kind of gaffe that costs the campaign in the long run. It never should have happened and there has to be better staff coordination to make sure it doesn’t happen again.
And Romney must address the challenge of winning independents. From the Fox Poll:
Obama’s advantage comes largely from increased support among independents, who now pick him over Romney by 11 percentage points. Some 30 percent of independents are undecided. Last month, Obama had a four-point edge among independents, while Romney had the advantage from April through early June.
CNN also shows Obama with an 11 point lead among independents. And Romney trails Obama 6 points among men in the CNN poll. Romney must win both groups by a decisive margin if he is to win nationally.
About the best that could be said from this dreary news is that at least Romney hasn’t peaked too soon.
They haven’t even warmed up yet.
So far, it’s just words.
The problem is that the media is still in the tank for Obama. Although they don’t swoon at everything he says these days, his missteps are not covered and all of the bad economic news is still whitewashed. Meanwhile, they carry his water regarding all of the Romney attacks.
I read an article by the AP today regarding that attack ad accusing Romney of “killing” a lady with cancer, and they repeated the entire text of the ad word for word without attempting to critique it at all, though the facts are well-known by now. I guess they reserve the actual investigative reporting for Romney.
Romney needs to step up his game- no more Mr. Nice guy. He’s got to fight the Democratic attack machine AND the media, and it’s a very dirty fight. I don’t know if he has it in him. I also don’t know why he’s not spending more in advertising, since he’s been out-raising Obama for three months now.
My hope is that the public gets tired of hearing about taxes and Bain- things that are old news to begin with. Obama’s got nothing else. Romney, however, has a treasure trove of things to bring up- if only he will.
The reason Romney hasn’t “stepped up his game” yet is because election laws limit how much money he can spend on advertised BEFORE the convention. Obama is trying to drown Romney before the convention because he can’t legally match the Presidents advertising. This is why Obama is spending far more than he’s making on contributions.
Wait until after the convention, when Romney can use all the money he’s raised.
Thanks for that info, I didn’t know that. Seems a bit unfair, considering the incumbent already has several other advantages, but at least there’s an explanation for the disparity.
That’s because campaign finance laws are nothing more than incumbency-protection schemes.
Campaign election laws have divided elections into pre-nomination and general election. Financial funding and disclosures are different in these two events.
So, on to CNN’s new found “independent voter bloc.” This mytic, mysterious “independent voter bloc” was, until August 8, 2012 undiscovered. True? Yes, because up until 8/8/12, all polls showed both candidates in a “virtual tie.”
Enter New Left with a plan to energize disaffected Obama voters by conducting a poll of “independent voter bloc.” One wonders, where are these hidden slices of Americana-the “independent voter bloc?” Humm, one would guess this poll was conducted in known, strongly democratic demographic, collated the results and labeled this as “independent voter bloc” supporting overwhelmingly candidate Obama.
More Holder, Emanuel, Jarrett, Axelrod flim-flammery. Stay the course America. This is traditional Chicago-style thuggery on full display for every American to see and witness what Illinois citizens have suffered ever since the days of the “Daley Machine.” Vote massively. God Save America, she’s on life support.
Good gravy. The Fox poll was done with a D +9 sample, which they said “seems a bit high but that’s what all the other media a$$holes are using.” Great. But the 2008 election was not nearly that high and the 2010 election sample was more like D +0. Bogus.
The CNN poll was 1000 adults and registered voters. Big deal. Bogus.
Seriously, we have enough problems with Obama and the MSM without you repeating their garbage. If you want to believe them, fine, go ahead but let the rest of us carry on in peace.
Once again, the inestimable Buck O’Fama strikes!
Pitch perfect, as always.
It’s AUGUST, and a properly run campaign isn’t about scoring media points in August.
The swing dolts aren’t even paying attention, if they ever even do, let alone the “undecideds”, which is code for “the clueless”.
“La, la, la… eenie, meeny, miney, moe, which President shall I pick today… the black one or the white one…la, la, la.”
Universal suffrage, even for idiots and soap opera watching women! We must dilute the thinking vote! With the added benefit of organized voter fraud, organized by the DOJ, itself!
Huzzah!
It’s the Dem Way, since forever. I sure hope all those Damn Yankees who died in the Civil War don’t think it was all in vain. At this point, it probably was. They had this silly notion, which has since been utterly refuted by any academian worth his salt, that EQUAL meant “equality of opportunity”, not, actually, “equal in every single way”, which is, of course, preposterous, for aren’t we all snowflakes? I thought no two snowflakes could possibly be “equal”. Thomas Jefferson’s trademark flight of eloquence continues to destroy the fabric of Society. “Equality” has such a fine ring, doesn’t it? Details are for losers.
When one side is concerned with “what’s right” vs.”what we want”, they are always fighting with two hands tied behind their backs. It is a noble, but forlorn side we occupy, like the Last Samurai, or the Spartans…have we learned NOTHING, in all these long years?
Once the Enemy has declared himself, destroy him utterly; don’t fool with him. No political party in American history has declared that they hate every single thing that Americans cherish more thoroughly than the Democrats have this time. They would destroy you, if they could. You should return the favor, wholeheartedly.
Mercy should be as a stranger to us. RICO should be our friend. BS about “we are above that” is why so many died in the ovens. This is an existential battle, not a disagreement. Have you not suffered enough? Don’t fret. You will!
Does anyone not yet see that this is the point we are at? (Apologies to Sir Winston, for the “at”, that is).
Sorry to be so grim, but a grim business it is.
Choose. Choose with your whole heart. And pray to Almighty God that it will not take bloodshed to evict the usurper.
Perfect!…..Sir Winston Spencer would be proud.
It’s Moran — what do you expect?
Unless he takes the gloves and grows a pair he peaked when he won the nomination. I detest Obama, because of his philosophy, but he is fighting for his beliefs. Romney on the other hand acts like a acting like these attacks ca be defended against with mild objections is enough. Both people running for President make me puke.
My theory is that the media is going to fake Obama dominance in the polls all the way up to election so if Romney wins Obama can claim voting fraud and fight it out in the courts.
We’re busy building high-speed railroads out here in Kalifornistan, are you guys holding a presidential election back there in the states?
Who is this Rom Ney guy, another Frenchman, or is he a gypsy or something?
– best!
Now we will see if Mitt’s got the stuff.
He certainly has Dole (and Bush the Older, who I always thought a squish) beat to death in the personality and command departments, and people who equate them are either stupid or delusional; Romney didn’t win at Bain just because his daddy was a governor back in the sixties and just because he is a rich guy. Don’t confuse him with W, who, quite plainly, wouldn’t have been dog catcher without “Bush” in his name. How smart do you have to be to run a baseball franchise which loses money all the time? You know. Like the government he left us.
Similarly, I always though McCain a dolt, and have never felt I needed to revise that opinion. (Yeah, yeah, yeah. Torture, blah, blah, blah…give him a pension…oh, he HAS one! Paid for by you and me. And he’ll get it even though he is way too rich for a guy who did one thing in his entire life, and that badly. No matter, Meghan the Retard can spend it after he dies. What the Hell were we thinking nominating him?) Does anyone here think Romney isn’t just plain smarter than McCain on his best day? Hold up your hand: I have a bridge to sell you.
But I keep seeing, in my minds’ eye, Al D’Amato running hearings when he wasn’t ready to hold them, years before Election Day, uncovering Clinton’s dirty linen (and there were heaps and heaps of it) way too early. Clinton had time to come back. I think Mitt’s saying, “Let’s not do that again.” Entertaining the press in August is not the point. Driving the Enemy from DC is.
I could be wrong. He might just be another joyboy elite a-hole, but every time I try to frame him like that, it doesn’t seem to fit, somehow. A precious little jerk like POTUS, wearing a helmet to go biking, like a little precious 5 year-old girl, fer chrissakes! Who looks at that and doesn’t think, “Precious”. I’m sure the Arabs do. And the Chinese. He’s a little girl pretending to be President. See why everything must be secret?
Meanwhile, Mitt rescues drowning people on his jetski. With his sons. At least twice we know of. Including the drowning dog. He never thought tice. Just did it. That’s not campaign BS. It was in the news look it up.
Oh, hell! It’s not my JOB, y’know, but:
http://www.myspace.com/intgd/splash.html
If you were a dog, which Master would you want? Pretty simple choice, no? If only people had the common sense of dogs.
But a man with a brain knows these things will yet keep. Noone is paying attention, yet. We know Axelrod’s MO, and it’s disgusting. If Mitt is going into October and November having spent all his ammunition, he’s dead, and I think he knows it. These people make the Mafia look weak: there is NOTHING they won’t do. The Mafia always had its rules. They respect none.
That will be the test. When the Highlanders stood up to the charge of the Russian Heavy Cavalry outside Sevastopol, they had only a few things on their side: they trusted their officers; they knew noone was better than they; they figured they were already dead, but BY GOD, they meant to take those Russkies with them, to punish them for making their wives widows.
When the smoke cleared, the few hundred Scots were almost untouched, but the thousands of Russians were fleeing headlong, leaving behind a great number of their men and horses, finished as a fighting force. They would never charge British infantry again.
But it was TIMING! “Don’t shoot until you see the whites of their eyes!”, the standard British infantry orders. Don’t waste your ammunition.
The proper use of which will show us whether Mitt is really “for real”.
God Bless him, as I’m sure He does. He will require it.
Romney has just released a MASTERFUL response to Obama’s ‘Romney killed my wife’ smear:
It’s doesn’t try to respond to Obama’s accusations. Instead it uses Obama’s ad itself against Obama.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-EEETo3Sqo&feature=player_embedded
I think Moral Godless called one of the two purposes. (The other being that they are trying to make Obama look like he is pulling ahead so he draws some of the twit voters and discourages some of Romney’s supporters.)
With schools opening in many places in a week or so I suspect the response rate on their call is in the low single digits.
At this point in 1980 Carter was up by ten or more points over Reagan.
We all know how that turned out.
It’s actually better that Obama leads at this stage. If business were convinced that Romney was going to win they would start investing again … which would pick the economy up and may actually lead to an Obama win.
I like the scenario where Romney wins, business releases pent up investments, and the economy comes back in a huge rush … during the lame duck period. Bwahaha!
Obama will get an enormous boost when Biden announces that he’s decided to retire and Hillary will be the Vice Presidential running mate.
It’s going to be tough to counter. Especially when that news is inserted just when Romney clinches the nominiation.
Right now, I’m basically of the profound and educated opinion that the best long term solution to the issue of how to get a more thoughtful deliberative republic is probably rioting by the right.
Naturally I’m joking.
Even though its true.
These particular polls should be ignored, for fairly simple reasons.
First, the CNN AND Fox polls samples are absurd. Do you really think for one minute that Obama is going to manage greater turnout than in 2008 when Hope-n-Change was at a fever pitch?
Second, the Fox poll puts Obama’s approval at 55%, which is far higher than most reputable pollsters estimate. Some of this can be attributed to the +9% democratic skew in the sample, but Gallop has his approval usually around 45% with a demographic sample of usually around +3.5% Democrats.
Third, if you looked at the internals of the CNN poll I think you’d be alarmed just how many of the respondents are unaware of major political figures. A third of the respondents didn’t even know who Harry Reid was, and he’s been all over the news at the same time this poll was conducted. Of course ultra low information voters do vote, but high information voters are far more likely than low information voters. Granted, this is poll of registered and unregistered voters, not likely voters, but the number is of low-info voters is still higher than it should be.
Call me crazy, but these issues make these polls highly suspicious. I’ll stick with Rassmussen and Gallop, whom have shown the two candidates to be roughly tied for the past month, in a holding pattern.
Right on target, WolvenOne! The Fox poll has been biased since they changed polling organizations in January of 2011 – right after the 2010 elections. There was an immediate shift in Obama’s favorability rating in his favor, and it contributed to a change in the RealClearPolitics basket of polls. I can only surmise that it was a deliberate attempt to change the public perception of Fox News as a right-wing network.
Since then, they have also bolstered their “balance” with Democrat and liberal Republican pundits and even news personnel. But the “balance” has not resulted in informed debate around opposing philosophies; it has encouraged the opposing pundits to harden their positions to maintain their “credibility” with viewers. The result is frequently shouting matches where the opponents talk over each other until the host gives up and changes the topic. I’m afraid that Fox has planted the seeds of its own destruction as the only voice for conservative opinion in the national TV media – in essence, killing the goose that laid the golden egg!
@ John J
“And pray to Almighty God that it will not take bloodshed to evict the usurper.”
Do expand on this thought. I’m sure the PJ Tatler is overjoyed that you posted it.
Yeah, Romney should panic and announce his VP pick because of two bad polls (and I mean badly done polls). That’s the ticket.
“And Romney trails Obama 6 points among men in the CNN poll.”
Horsecrap.
And Fox is selling pageviews with this poll finding Obamee ahead. The message is clear however that the time for Romney to pick Paul Ryan and fully embrace the House Tea Party budget is the only way he wins.
It’s time to run America like a business.
This reminds me of the McCain failed election! I am mad as heck about the fact that Romney is too chicken-hearted to get tough! What is the matter, does he want to lose? And meanwhile, the days just go on by, the election coming closer and closer. I would rather have seen a Gingrich or Santorum running than another weak candidate. Heaven help us, and I truly mean that.
for thinking that, Joe. Romney is a weakling, no guts, no nothing. Remember all the GOP pundits bashing Gingrich and saying he was “unwinnable” — the idiots! The dunce Ann Coulter endorsed Romney, even!
Romney is not just a weakling and a loser, it looks like he’s on the other side, too, throwing the game like McCain. Mitt Romney wouldn’t even defend chik fil a against unconstitutional political persecution, fer chrissakes!
Finally, Romney’s stupid. Not just ignorant, but stupid stupid, like a stone. Hasn’t got the brains to see Obama for the menace that he is. Romney actually thinks our racist commie president is a good guy, yet. It’s hopeless.
Methinks John J (comment 7) is right. Romney has shown that he’s no McCain (remember #ObamaEatsDog ?). We’ve seen how quickly his organization can respond. His track-record of decision-making in his professional life has been extremely good.
As frustrating as it is to see the lame response to ‘Romney killed my wife’, I’m inclined to trust Romney’s strategy at this point. If we get into September – after the Convention – and the Romney campaign hasn’t lit Obama up like a Christmas tree then I’ll start to worry.
to start a fire, not a limp, wet noodle.
Right now, I’m basically of the profound and educated opinion that the best long term solution to the issue of how to get a more thoughtful deliberative republic is probably rioting by the right.–Anon@13
You will never see it. The right is comprised of people who will sit through a ten-minute stop light on a country road when there is no cross-traffic the entire time.
They may shoot the sheriff when he comes to seize their outlawed semiautomatic battle rifles, though.
I’ll take the bait. The next weapon, on the list to be seized, will be the assault tounge. (free speech) I bet it will happen without a shot being fired from the opposition.
Already has been done. One of 128rworse Executive Orders Obama has “legislated from the White House.” Special agents can imprison any American citizen displaying signage detracting or defiling any government representative – “without Habeus Corpus.” America is now under total “Martial Law.”
Already has been done. One of 128 worse Executive Orders Obama has “legislated from the White House.” Special agents can imprison any American citizen displaying signage detracting or defiling any government representative – “without Habeus Corpus.” America is now under total “Martial Law.”
I am of that ilk, and that is in fact why there in fact may be such. People who voluntarily discipline themselves, and who know we named a capital after a traitor, have a memorial to the man that wrote the document of treason, and consider a leader of a mob an honorable name for a major beer company; people who understand there is a book that says “you do not get to do whatever you want when you want just because you have the *earthly* means and power to do so”–those, sir, are people who will not indefinitely give anybody or thing the right to demand from others obedience to law and principle yet have to show none themselves. And when they finally withdraw that grant of legiticy, it will not be given again absent major changes.
In other words, more so than others, people who voluntarily obey will tolerate much but once things get stretched far too far, they will not just accept it, but will act. Decisively. I think I know my fellow Americans of that ilk. The breach, should it come, will not be repairable by them that caused it or by others simply not wanting disharmony because they have other things they wish for. Only change and the retirement of them that caused the trouble would set aright again.
You may depend upon it.
“Legitimacy”, not “legiticy”. Apologies.
Facts: 1) Until August 8, 2012, both candidates were “within polling’s margin of error (read: tied).”- MSM, crickets!
Economy taxameggedon, “going over a cliff” unemployment (U-3 & U-6) 15% -MSM crickets!. Emerging markets tumbling and shrinking – MSM crickets. Taliban, Al Queada, Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood sweeping the middle east- MSM crickets! Internal US growth only 1.5% – MSM crickets!
Just some of the “favorable data” for this administration to crow about.
New Left’s call for alarm that Obama’s base was eroding and must do something quickly – to shore it up. AHA! Enter “new polling data and the Independent voter.”
THE INDEPENDENT VOTER has been found!!! Eureka! So, dispatch CNN and their New Left friends to conduct a quick poll of known demographically identifed democratic strongholds, mis-label them as “independents” and publish these results as proof “Obama hasn’t lost his MoJo.”
Net effect of this ” show of support?” Yep, keep Tea Partiers, Teavangelicals, Constitutional conservatives and Republicans AWAY from voting and polling precincts. Of course the hoped for effect is to shore-up Obama’s waning, dissappearing base by re-energizing this bloc of voters (funny, only the “new found independent” is carrying Obama- where is this slice of Americana?) to “stay-the-course!”
Axelrod, Emmanuel, Jarrett and Holder are unfolding Chicago-style thuggery for every american to see how they treat Illinois citizens (and what they think of all Americans). God Save America. Vote massively for massive fraud is on full display and all around We The People.Amen.
Again. The Republicans are going to do it again. I have this sick feeling that they will do it AGAIN!!! Has the Romney campaign learned nothing from McCain, Dole, Bush 41…?
In a fight, you don’t win by being the best person, or the one who is morally superior, or even the one with Right on your side. The one who wins is the one who is the best fighter, or at least the one who fights the best fight. Period.
Obama campaign: “Romney is a filthy,tax-evading murderer who financed his lavish lifestyle through right-wing, Latin American, death squads.”
Romney campaign: “Oh yeah, well that’s just wrong. That’s a misrepresentation. Besides, the guy whose job we took away and whose wife we killed would have had insurance under our Massachusetts version of Obamacare, so take that!”
Seriously?!
How much do the insiders working on this campaign get paid? Are these the best and brightest? I can’t believe I’m living through another Republican candidate self-destruct. But there it is AGAIN, right before my eyes.
Why in the name of all that is holy and good doesn’t Romney come out and tell the damn truth about Bain and then crush Obama with his pathetic record and the fact that he’s a Marxist, Islamic mole out to destroy the very fabric of the country! The proof is in his own, damn book! He’s a sitting duck, for crying out loud! SPELL IT OUT for the dimwits and stop talking like a prep school librarian at an ice cream social!!!
In the words of the late Sam Kinnison, “SAAAAAYYYY IIIITTTT!!!!”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
According to Rasmussen, it’s Romney 47% vs Obama 43% … and does anybody care what any other pollster has to say? Rasmussen is the only accurate one.
How can you trust any poll that does not show how deeply hated Obama is by so many? I call it the web page comments test. Look at any Obama story including liberal papers like the New York Times and New York Daily News and there are plenty of people who have had enough with this President in the comments section. Remember John Kerry? In polls he was the popular choice and a well beloved scion of the Kennedy family. On the Internet he was a popular butt of jokes and a hated scion of the Kennedy family. The truth is that it is adding up against Obama. We need patience. We do not know how this will turn out but we know there have been heavy victories in 2010 and just recently. Do polls show buyers remorse against the buyers remorse that elected Obamacare opponents? I doubt it. So what are they actually measuring? Oh and by the way can anyone point to polls that showed these victories were coming? Nope. They all showed the administration succeeding in whatever it desired.
Listen the real story is that David Axelrod is doing a lousy job with the Obama campaign. If you were an Obama supporter you would want him gone. Maybe we should be focusing on the bad advice Obama is getting and how we all think we could have a better national dialogue if we could just get rid of the dead wood in the Obama campaign. We should be appealing to Obama to do himself and the country a good turn by getting rid of Axelrod and denouncing Emmanuel. To make this an election the American people can be proud of. It is a whole lot better option than wishing we had Gingrich back. Don’t think for a moment Gingrich would be making huge inroads in Obama supporters. He wouldn’t though be blowing up from time to time making the kind of errors Romney won’t.
So let’s get going. Civility in. Axelrod out.