As our own Bryan Preston reported earlier today, Texas Governor Rick Perry has announced he’ll stay in the race. That’s somewhat of a surprise. Most people, including myself, had expected him to drop out after his poor performance in Iowa yesterday.
The question now is: who benefits from Perry’s decision? Well, the first answer is, of course, the governor himself. He at least gives himself another shot at winning. That’s worth something. However, there’s another “winner” and his name isn’t Newt Gingrich.
I am, of course, talking about Mitt Romney. The strategy of Mittens, as AllahPundit loves to call him, is based on “divide and conquer.” At the very moment the campaign develops into a horse race between two candidates, he’s somewhat vulnerable. After all, the conservative base isn’t exactly enamored by the man they consider to be a flip-flopper and “Massachusetts moderate” (at best).
The longer Perry stays in, the more the “conservative base” will be divided. And the more divided it is, the easier it will be for Romney to win this thing. In other words, he just gave Romney a wonderful (but belated) New Year’s present.
There is a “but,” though. If Perry pulls off an unexpected win in, say, South Carolina, he will suddenly pose a threat to Romney because he will then be able to present himself as the (social) conservative alternative.
If Perry can stay in this race through Super Tuesday, I think that he’ll make history as the first candidate to win the nominationafter losing both Iowa andNH. Newt knows that he won’t win the nomination at this point, but he’ll destroy Romney on his way down. Iowa proved that Mitt is a weak candidate, 75% of Republicans don’t want him. Santorum isn’t viable beyond Iowa, Huntsman isn’t viable beyond NH, and Paul just isn’t viable, period, and McCain’s endorsement will actually hurt Mitt. So, who does that leave left standing? Perry.
Santorum’s moral victory in Iowa means nothing. He was the last unvetted candidate standing and that’s why he performed so well. The Romney machine would have ground him to hamburger by South Carolina.
The “divide and conquer” bit is spot on, and I was sorry to see Perry stay in the race. He’s used goods, now. And he can’t talk–simply put, he should have been prepared to defend the children’s drug issue, and the illegal aliens’ kids’ tuition thing–he should have batted that criticism outta the park the moment Used Car Mitt brought it up.
But Perry flubbed disastrously. Remember “You don’t have a heart”?
No, no, no, to the man. A thousand times no.
Erick Erickson is advising Perry to dump his campaign capos and get a new crew, as in get it done immediately. I think that Erickson is right, Perry needs to reboot. Massively. So, we’ll see. But this week, THIS WEEK, if Perry doesn’t make a clean sweep of his campaign honchos, forget him.
I think it is fair to say that.
Santorum we don’t know much about in terms of how he’ll handle Mitt in his Fang Attack Mode, but I’ll say that I’m damned tired of this or that candidate failing some Conservative litmus test. There ARE some things that make you a conservative and some that make you anything but (Romneycare, anyone?). But does Santorum really fail as a general-level conservative? He is surely as conservative as Chris Christie on money issue, and more so when it comes to social issues and guns.
Fair is fair, perhaps, sometimes, in some galaxies. But right now, I’d Rick Perry had his chance and should leave, I think. Should he not clean his house this week, forget him. If he toughs it out with his deadheads and does poorly in S.C. he will have to leave. But by then it might be too late.
Whatever.
An Préachán
Think its the smart thing to do. Wonder if Tim Pawlenty ever thinks that he folded too quickly and by now, might have a good chance of winning?