One of my favorite political analysts, Jay Cost, sifts through the economic data and concludes Obama’s chances at re-elecion are slim:
On a political level, the blame for the recovery goes entirely to President Obama. Indeed, looking at the polls on his handling of the economy, you can see that he is already taking the heat.
And so, we can lay down the following marker: if the economic recovery does not begin to show substantial improvement, the likes of which we have not really seen in the last two years, and if the GOP nominates a reasonably acceptable alternative, this president is going to lose in 2012, and the final result will not be close. Nobody gets reelected with employment way down, real income way down, and 14 percent of his fellow citizens on food stamps. Nobody.
And the president needs something more than a “recovery” in the sense that we’ve seen to date. When you start controlling for inflation, population growth, and government intervention, the recovery we’ve seen has only been, at best, a treading of water for average people. This president needs to see a significant improvement in real, per capita, and private metrics of personal economic vitality. Put simply, he needs something more than this “food stamp recovery” to win next year.
All the foregoing assumes that Obama is the Dem candidate in 2012, and that isn’t necessarily guaranteed.
A challenge from The Lizard Queen would be suicidal. Even if she were to win the nomination away from Obama, blacks would go ballistic and they would stay home in droves on election day.
But The One could pull an LBJ and decide that the Presidency is really beneath him after all. And that would result in a whole new ball game.
And you suppose Hillary hasn’t figured out that downside to her run ?
Actually, Clarice, if the R’s continue down the road with the current batch of pathetic also-rans I think HRC could poach enough middle-of-the-roaders to make up the difference. I have personally said that if the ’08 choice were between Hillary and Johnnie Mac I probably would have gone for “Clinton the 3rd”.
Anyways, if the African-American grievance bloc vote does stay away as you suggest, it will have marginalized itself most deliciously and possibly permanently.
Actually, there are some very decent republican options; I doubt Hillary would split her party and I don’t think most pols think beyond the next scheduled election. In other words, she knows she’d lose and therefore she won’t.
Jay is right on target.
DC is operating in a world of its own. In the real world, the much-touted recovery has been an unrelenting struggle to not lose any more ground. Those of us who pay out of our own pockets for food, general supplies, paper goods, gas, utilities, etc., etc., are confronting three forces: cash reserves are down, income is stagnant, prices are up.
The bumblefooted Obamatrons are doubling down on a double-dip recession. Any semi-competent Republican should be electable in 2012, but the GOPhers are renowned for their ability to bobble what should be a sure thing.
What will America experience in 2012?
Reality or make believe reality?
The only thing we know for sure is that Ozians will be working around the clock for the make believe variety.
exactly,
how many of the electorate have thrown in with make-believe?
how effective is the message delivered from the right?
how effective are the shenanigan operatives?
how effective is the spontaneous nature of the tea-party versus the zombified rent-a-mobs of the unions?
and many others…
The portents are cheering, but Han Solo’s advice remains in force:
DON’T GET COCKY, KID!
Obama can be relected if he reduces enough people to an inner city standard of living by impoverishing the middle class. I think his political braintrust went through the 2010 electoral results and have identified just such a strategy. California bucked the national trend because many of the swing votes from the middle class are no longer there. They have fled the state. Obama and his party’s goal is to make America lool like Detroit.
Could this be the DEFINING MOMENT in BO’s Presidency? Hopefully this will be the defined end of this demon’s role in power.