Each week, from Sunday evening until Friday morning, I'm a voracious consumer of political news and opinion from both sides of the aisle. Because I never had a wandering liberal phase when I was young, I can't get inside the heads of Democrats and figure out what they're up to. I do, however, tend to have a good read on where the Republican electorate is.
Also, thanks to my Morning Briefing gig, I see a lot of what's being covered in conservative media.
I have been detecting a little optimism lately and I'm here to you-know-what all over everyone's Wheaties.
There has been a flood of polling information that looks promising for Donald Trump in his bid to return to the presidency. Of particular interest have been some polls from the battleground states that are crucial to Trump's chances in November. I've seen some that actually have Minnesota in play for Trump but even I don't drink enough to buy that.
Here in Arizona, we're still adjusting to battleground state status, and the polling here has been very favorable for Trump.
Political polling can often seem like something wizards in a tower and witches around a cauldron collaborated on. I've been polled several times over the years, and very often, the questions were framed in a way that left me feeling that any answer I gave would be unsatisfying.
To be sure, it's better to be ahead in the polls than behind. You know what's even better, though? Being ahead after all the votes that come out of the ether after election day are counted. We all know that's where things get weird in our corner of the 21st century.
Point of clarification: I'm not at the garment-rending, "ALL ELECTIONS ARE RIGGED FOREVER!" stage. Were that the case, I would already be bouncing around the world in an expat frenzy, learning how to say "cirrhosis" in multiple languages. I do have questions, however. I've written a lot over the years about my mistrust of vote-by-mail and my intense dislike of early voting. That's not my purpose for this column.
This is more of a psych eval.
It seems like Republican voters have been saying they'll swear off belief in polling. It happens after every election in conservative media. We are not even two years removed from the red wave that never happened, and many on the right have gone full "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" regarding the polls. I don't know how many "Biden should be worried about this poll" stories I've read just in the last two weeks.
Polls leading up to the 2022 midterms made it seem like the Republicans were not only going to win back the House and Senate but also take control of the British Parliament and the NFL Players Association.
I know that not everyone is caught up in the nascent groundswell of 2024 Republican optimism. It's important to remember that the temptation to want to believe will become stronger the worse this trainwreck of a Biden administration gets.
Back in the Tea Party days, I used to say that any Republican candidate polling lead under six percent wasn't outside the margin of ACORN (Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now). Now that early voting starts sometime around Super Bowl Sunday and Election Day is Election Seven or So Weeks, I've revised that. If a Republican isn't up by at least eight points in a poll, he or she is not outside the Margin of Magic Mail Ballots.
Although it's fun, optimism isn't warranted. You can add complacency and protest votes because of Trump and feelings to the list, too.
If the exuberance continues, I'll be back. I'd also like to be proven wrong about the eight points thing, but I'm sticking to it for now.
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