Everybody loves a good mystery and the alleged murder of Hamas commander Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai by Mossad agents is sure attracting a lot of ink or pixels, not the least of which is Ronen Bergman’s Israel and the Dubai Murder Mystery in Friday’s Wall Street Journal. But unfortunately, Mr. Bergman – a senior military and intelligence analyst for Israel’s popular daily Yedioth Ahronoth – makes a major error in the second paragraph of his piece. Can you spot it?
Nearly everyone believes that the 11 alleged members of the hit squad that killed Hamas leader Mahmoud al-Mabhouh last week in Dubai are Mossad agents. Seven of the 11 identities used were stolen from other Israelis with dual European citizenship.
Well, as it happens, the murder didn’t take place “last week” but on January 19. It was only reported widely last week. I’m not noting that to make fun of Mr. Bergman, obviously a knowledgeable fellow, or the fact-checkers at the WSJ, stressed as they may be, but it does cause you to wrinkle your nose at some of Mr. Bergman’s comments further down the page:
But the real, and so far unappreciated, achievement in this affair belongs to the Dubai police, who were able to integrate all the evidence at their disposal into one clear picture and do so with remarkable speed.
Whoever sent the hit squad to Dubai was not aware that the police and security services had such advanced capabilities at the ready. The investigators managed to put together still and video shots taken in seven different locations and place them on a single timeline together with the cellphone records of the individuals in the footage. Doing this requires sharp analysis and advanced computer skills, and computerized intelligence systems able to cross check information from various sources.
How did the Dubai police manage all this? Did they have help? For now, it remains a mystery. But in any case, misjudging the ability of the Dubai authorities so spectacularly is evidence of a serious intelligence failure on the part of the organization that sent out the squad.
Remarkable speed? Advanced capabilities? Hmm… Besides his timeline being off by nearly a month here, Mr. Bergman (speaking of speed) is not particularly up to speed on technology either. With face recognition software so ubiquitous it comes with a $150 point-and-shoot camera nowadays, a smart high school student could probably put these surveillance videos together on a MacBook in matter of days, if not hours. I don’t know about the expertise of the Dubai police, though at the very least they’ve probably seen a few episodes of “Las Vegas.”
With all the talk about the passports, the fact remains that, as of today, the only people arrested have been 3 Palestinians, including one member of Hamas.
Roger, the big question is:Why was the target free to roam? “extrajudicial” assumes a fair judicial process, which does not exist for Americans or Israelis.
This ‘operation’ sounds so uncovert I can’t believe it is anything more than an internal Hamas matter. The pay back for who knows what is dished out with the side benefit being the Israelis getting blamed for doing it. The UnOcean’s Eleven crew could be any sort of hired goons. With out a doubt Hamas would have plenty of contacts with in various mafias in their weapon buying to get some muscle for the job.
I suspect that the timing of the hit had everything to do with the exact components-tipping the balance of power- of the shipment the killer was waiting for.While all weapons in the hands of terrorists are lethal, they are even more so as Iran reaches ever closer to the nuclear edge.
It must be noted that there are certain prices worth paying when hunting down Jew-killers.Surely the team knew all about the cameras.No one believes otherwise.The fact of the matter IS that they got their target, they made a getaway AND no innocent civilians were killed.
Those who castigate Israel for morally and legally-yes legally, as international law is NOT a suicide pact-sanctioned hits, would do well to remember these things-Hamas PURPOSEFULLY uses their own civilians as human shields AND they PURPOSEFULLY target civilian Jewish areas. Therefore, to even compare the methods of the Mossad to Hamas et al is to compare good vs evil.
Further, this clean hit proves that when Israel can eliminate a terror head they PREFER not to involve innocents.Can’t say as much for ANY of our enemies.
Put another way – what rankles the Islamists and anti-semites world over is that Israel actually defends itself, refusing to go like sheep to the slaughter. The fact that the Mossad/Shin Bet has a reach ALL over the world is SO humiliating for them that they automatically go into orgasmic frenzies.
Tough sh-t!
I must say, I agree with the # 5 comment. Israel has a right to defend herself. Certainly no one else will. But what really rankles is that Israel has been tried and found guilty in the world press. What’s the matter with everybody? Regardless, whoever did this rid the world of another piece of scum!
Actually it seems a little over-manned and slightly clumsy for the Mossad. Shin-Bet maybe. Iran and its Arab partners more likely.
Palestinans? Not near clumsy enough to be them.
A technical note: the camera at the link can do face *detection*, not recognition. There is a big difference between detecting a face and recognizing it; though I guess face detection saves police time, because they can skip the long boring stretches of video with no faces in it.
They still have not explained how the door got locked with a chain type of lock, obviously either from the inside or using some device from the outside in full view of the cameras.
This would imply access to the adjacent room either through a “combining” door or over a balcony….I suppose theoretically the room below over a balcony as well. We have only heard the suspects rented room 237 across the hall.
Finally, was he carrying cash to pay off either his contact or actually purchase the arms or explosives we are told initiated his mission? In that case robbery is an obvious motive and the Palestinians would certainly be the prime suspects for a large shipment would be intercepted, not cut off by popping the agent that had been under surveillance in the past.
Think how the Israelis have taken down shipments in other countries or as they are being delivered by sea. The Egyptians have been essentially allies to this process intercepting materials going toward the tunnels…in these cases they win twice. The Palestinians cough up the payment and the Israelis either destroy or steal the arms. Better yet, the Palestinians then suspect each other and thin their own ranks but killing the suspects…without condemnation from the western press.
So who are the three Palestinians?? His security detail didn’t make the trip likely for a reason more likely than someone forgot to click the Expedia box for 3 adults rather than 1.
I agree with Adina and Joe… But there are still things about this scenario as a Mossad hit that don’t sit right with me. If the Irish passports used were all fake, why not all the passports used? Why endanger real people by using the identities of some real dual citizens? Any why look right into a CCTV camera? Why change your disguise in a washroom whose exit is covered by a CCTV camera? Is it cockiness?
But the world won’t miss Mahoub, that’s for sure, and if his assassination slows down arms shipments to Hamas from Iran and China, that’s a big positive for Israel, whoever the culprits and whatever the fallout from this for Israel.
One other thing…if the Israelis had bugged his room and knew the guy was wasted, they would have every reason to bail quickly…we haven’t heard whether their reservations were quickly changed, whether they grabbed the first eleven seats to anywhere before switching IDs or whether they had scheduled the departure for 18 hours after arrival. Dubai is a transit point with Emirates so there are lots of opportunities.
It is entirely possible they held multiple reservations.
Why now? They’ve been stalking this dog for G-d knows how long. In Dubai, the pieces all fell into place. I wonder how many Israeli (American, Russian, etc.) stalking teams are working as we speak, waiting for a perfect opportunity.
Post of the day? #5
Steven
Snori #8, it is you who is not technically correct. Most of these cameras actually do a form of face recognition. They essentially memorize a face (favorite family member, etc.) and focus on them in the next group picture. This is not far from the technology to match people in videos. So you are wrong.
FYI -
Report: PM authorized Mabhouh killing
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3852012,00.html
Reading Bergman’s opinion it surprised me that it appeared in the WSJ. It more compatible with the NYT form of entertainment.
Reading this gives one a greater understanding why Yedioth Ahronoth and Maariv the two “popular” dailies are trying to get the popular daily, and free, Israel Hayom banned with the excuse that the owner is not an Israeli.
At least its articles don’t appear to be the script for the Marx Bros type CCTV video that was released.
Tying together multiple footage, digital or not, from multiple cameras even with facial recognition in the face of changing and altering disguises is a very impressive feat.
If Iran is continuing to make moves toward weaponizing its nuclear arsenal, AND…they announced that they had achieved a great milestone in doing so..AND…Mabhouh was on his way to Iran, because he was involved in furthering the ability of Iran to:
a)accelerate the timeline for having weapons grade nuclear capability;
b)pass off weapons capable of fulfilling the expressed intent of wiping Israel off the map and driving her into the sea
Mossad wasn’t “sloppy” in that instance…they were sending a message. Iran boasting about its nuclear advancements, was given a rather clear notion that all their “secrets”…weren’t so discreet after all.
Leaking that they had been tailing and infiltrating Mabhouh for at least two months, is also a message. Everyone at Hamas may be a mark, a target or a double agent. And Iran…can’t know which. They must now believe that Israel has insiders who have been feeding them information…and not from Travelocity.
This must have shaken the very ground they stand on. It also sends the message, that if all of the above is true…Israel can take out Iran’s threats at any time, and in any manner of their choosing.
Seems to me that a modern CCTV security system would have the capability of linking video signals together to allow such a timeline video. And having face recognition features would allow security to track persons of interest throughout the hotel and grounds.
Why does Dubai get upset over a killing of a known terror guy and yet let him into their country?
Do we know for sure he’s dead? Do we have proof that the passports cited were really used? And how do we know the individuals in the edited film clip weren’t simply members of the Dubai intelligence agency (whatever that may be), meticulously creating evidence of an assassination that never took place, or that was arranged by a government or coalition of governments in the Arab world? Would Mossad really leave that obvious a footprint? Hamas is owned by Iran, and Iran is deeply feared in the Arab world. It pays to be skeptical.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7034933.ece
the whole story of the “event”
WHAT IS THE BIG DEAL ..IN THE WORLD OF ESPIONAGE EVERY COUNTRY DOES NOT PLAY BY THE BOOK.THEY ALL HAVE DIRTY TRICKS …THE RUSSIAN POISON THERE OPPONENTS, THE ENGLISH MI6 GUNNED DOWN IRA SUSPECTS IN ITALY I BROAD DAY LIGHT..THE AMERICAN IN PAKISTAN AND AFGANISTAN HAVE THERE HIT SQUADS TOO AGAINST EL QUIADA AND TALIBAN…..AND AS FOR THE ARABS DON’T LOSE ANY TEARS OVER THEM THEY ARE THE FATHERS OF TERROR ON INNOCENT CIVILIANS WHO ARE NOT INVOLVED IN ANY POLITICAL OR MILITARY MISSIONS…SO GIVE ME A BREAK WHO THE HELL GIVES A DAMN ABOUT FORGED PASSPORT A TERRORIST WAS TAKEN OUT AND CONGRADULATION TO THE PEOPLE WHO DID IT…AND LET THE DUMB ASSES OF VARIOUS GOVERNMENT GET UP AND HUNT DOWN THESE BASTARDS …WHAT THE HELL DID THE GOVERMENT OF DUBIA LET THIS TERRORIST IN THEIR..SO NOW THE CRY A CRIME WAS DONE …WHAT ABOUT ALL THE ROCKETS THIS MABHOUH WAS BUYING FOR HAMAS…IT WAS GOING TO KILL INNOCENT CIVILIANS..NOW DUBIA AUTHORITIES ARE CRYING FOR THE HEAD OF MOSSAD’S DIRECTOR..I WOULD HAVE ANI VESTIGATION ON DUBIA FOR LETTING TERRORIST OPERATE IN THEIR COUNTRY…AND AS FOR ENGLAND AND IRELAND WJHAT MAKE THEIR HANDS SO CLEAN ..GO TO THE SUSPECTED IRA MEMBERS THAT HAVE IN IMPRISONED IN ENGLAND ASK THEM IF THEY WERE TREATED ACCORDING TO THE LAW AND WHAT LAWS DID MI5 -MI6 BREAK TO CARRY OUT THEIR MISSIONS AGAINST THE IRA
HELLO THERE IS ANYONE LISTENING
Roger:
In fact, contrary to your assertion that the murder of Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh was only reported last week, it was reported in January when it happened (I read about it the next day in the WSJ and other news sources), so you’ve actually committed the same journalistic error as he has. Will you own up, just as you’ve called Ronen on his similar error?
DS
Yes, Deborah, I will gladly own up, as you say. As I indicated, my reason for pointing out Bergman’s error was to call to question some of his assumptions re speed and capabilities. Indeed we all make mistakes, as I am sure you would agree.
He’s still alive. Fake op to get him off the radar and simultaneously implicate Israel as a bad guy. Too amateurish.
Regardless of blame in this case the Wackor has become the Wackee!
Maurice… your CAPS LOCK is on.
Hope this helps.
I simply find it impossible to credit this hit to Israel. The Mossad is one of the best, if not THE best, intelligence agencies in the world. I can’t accept that they used stolen passports of Israeli citizens. Why steal passports when I’m sure they could counterfeit them easily enough. And make them appear issued from any middle eastern nation, including Iran. Come on, people, does anyone really think the Israelis are that dumb?
@28
and at the same time put these Israeli citizens whose names were used truly in harms way. You make a lot of sense
Nope Ben MAURICE does not have his caps lock on it is just his keyboard it seems that the manufacture did not include small letters, heck even his handle is in caps, if you examine your keyboard carefully all letters are in large caps so he got what he paid for.
Just kidding there learning how to use HTML would be nice like bold or italic you know stuff like that using tags like or along with the closing tags of and without the space before the greater than than signs!
Somebody died?
the theater of who did it. the Dubai police go around demanding the head of the Mossad, the Mossad quietly says not gonna happen and they blame the Israelis again and everyone is satisfied the it is all they can do. hey the Syrians did because he went behind their backs and didn’t ask for permission from them. sounds a feasible enough conspiracy to me.
we may all be getting fooled by the Dubai authorities. we will never know.
I think that the authorities had no need to show their hand. So that says something.
What was the point of exposing the plot ? What about those who they have in custody. These things are done for a reason …and we don’t know what that is.
It could be a face saving ploy because they were also involved.
I will wait for the movie, or book.
maurice,
if you used some separation, pragraphs..I could listen better..thanks
Mossad is too smart for this kind of nonsense. Maybe it’s all a hoax..
26~~ right!!
By far . . .the best video synopsis using actual footage from various locations involved in this hit.
ht -Vladtepes
In the meantime, I have read that al-Mabhouh also used a fake passport. Where’s the outrage?
Roger, why did you censor my post? I’m a fan of yours but I have to comment when your lack of Intelligence experience and penchant for creativity run away from you!
#37 Karen -
Yes, I was wondering the same thing.
What I’m looking forward to is the UK, France, Ireland and Germany announcing their SHOCK! absolute SHOCK! when it’s discovered that it was Hamas and other Palestinians who used their passports — and to hear their outrage and denunciations, plus lectures and threats of the type they’ve made to Israel.
P.S. No one is saying what intelligence the arrested Palestinians are contributing — voluntarily, of course.
Roger #13: thanks for your reply. I have read again the product description, more carefully. Believe me, I take no pleasure in correcting you, but it’s for the next article that you’ll write on this. What the camera does is [a] it detects faces and [b] it tracks faces that remain within its field of view, so it does not have to detect them again. Tracking is not recognition: if a face gets out of sight and then comes in again, the camera has no way of knowing that it is the same face.
AQUA
actually Israel did warn UK about the deal, and offial complains were forecasted, in regard of the populations, otherwise, that would mean that whatever cheater could used foreign passports !
I have a better info for you, Pals use american passports
Has anyone considered that maybe the Dubai authorities are behind this plot? Maybe they wanted to send a message that their lovely little city (with its prostitutes and alcohol) is not to be used for jihadist nuttery.
Good read, Simon.
Would I be surprised to find that Mossad took out a scumbag? Nope (nor would I be too concerned about it).
My money is on an internal (of sorts) Hamas-PLA struggle. After all, the man murdered was with Hamas. The three (and only three thus far) suspects apprehended were affiliated with the PLA. Perhaps Abbas is actually better at leading than we know…but we’ll never really know (not REALLY, anyway).
Jim Dunnigan over at StrategyPage is not at all sure that Mossad done it. He’s much more sure that Dubai is trying to cover its own ass to preserve its reputation as neutral turf where dubious characters can feel safe, and saying “J’accuse” to Mossad is both popular and a way of puffing out your own chest.
Money quote: “The police chief of Dubai, whose main job is protecting the many wealthy criminals that visit to party and parley, is making an entertaining, if thin, effort to prove Mossad did it. It’s all theater, with a macabre background and tantalizing clues.”
Funny if it would turn out that the only Israelis in Dubai at the time were actually on a shopping trip and not connected to any wet job?
Of course, the real address of the message was Iran: Israel is not your genteel western democracy but one that really cares about its survival from threat.
The people that killed Hamas leader at UAE dubai plotted a bomb that blasted at Superscreen Television Lagos Nigeria on December,which they know very the Hamas leader will not hear and he will disagree that mutallab did not intend to bomb USA jet from London united kingdom just like Richard Reid intended to bomb a plane with shoe bomb.
Another intriguing possibility is that al-Mabhouh was not killed by Mossad, but because he was Mossad.That is, he had been identified (perhaps erroneously, perhaps with malice) by his own enemies as a Mossad agent and was murdered for it. By whom? Iran, the main benefactors of Hamas.
How credible is this hypothesis? Well, not very at the moment. But you can read more here.
Unless any of us have actual contacts within the Israeli government it is impossible to know if Mossad was actually behind the assassination. But it is fair to say that if a terrorist is assassinated in the ME and there is no collateral damage, then it probably was the Israelis.
DEBKAfile: Dubai police claim of DNA and fingerprints is not credible
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 27, 2010, 12:15 AM (GMT+02:00)
Mabhouh’s shadows remain unidentifiable
Dubai’s police chief Dhahi Khalfan said Friday, Feb. 26, that DNA and fingerprint evidence of at least one of the 26 team of assassins had been found in the hotel room where Hamas commander Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh was found dead on Jan. 19. The first arrest warrants have now been issued through Interpol.
debkafile’s intelligence sources report that the Dubai authorities believe that a persistent stream of “revelations” about the Mabhouh investigation will make Israel and its Mossad intelligence agency slip up and admit responsibility for his death.
According to those sources, it makes no sense for the Dubai police to have found DNA or fingerprints in room 230 of the Al-Bustan Rotana luxury hotel occupied by Mabhouh and in none of the other rooms taken by hit team members. Any fingerprints will not be of much use unless they can be matched with prints of identified persons already on file with the Dubai police, and in any case are probably not genuine.
Our sources disclose that all the suspects arrived in Dubai disguised from head to toe and their fingerprints were most likely faked along with the rest of their appearance. Therefore, the Dubai police’s fine collection of video clips and passport photos are of little use to the inquiry.
debkafile sources therefore dismiss the claims by the Dubai police and certain Israeli publications citing “security experts” that the Mossad was caught unawares by the security cameras which tracked the death squad’s movements. They missed the fact that the team was not only aware of the cameras but controlled them and used them in support of their mission.
Therefore, when Khalfan comes out with his next round of “revelations,” he will most likely produce video depictions of some of the suspects using electronic gadgets to open the door of 230, Mabhouh’s hotel room, at 8:24 p.m. Jan. 19, as the victim climbed up from the lobby to his room. The next shot 19 minutes later will show the same suspects leaving room 230, relocking the door and with the same gadget shooting the inside bolt home to concoct the appearance of a locked room mystery.
But the Dubai police are clearly missing the essential 19-minute segment covering the action inside room 230, without which they have no real evidence of a crime.
That did not happen by chance.
According to our sources, the death squad kept the cameras running long enough to exhibit their facility to penetrate any secure site in the Middle East, but switched them off when they wanted to conceal the actions they took in pursuance of their mission.
http://www.debka.com/article/8618/