You would have to assume Prince Saud Al-Faisal was speaking sotto voce to the Israelis – he couldn’t have been expecting anything from the weirdly distracted Obama administration – when, according to the AP, the Saudi Foreign Minister opined publicly at a Monday meeting with Hillary Clinton:
“Sanctions are a long-term solution,” the Saudi minister said. “But we see the issue in the shorter term because we are closer to the threat,” referring to Iran. “We need immediate resolution rather than gradual resolution.”
He didn’t identify a preferred short-term resolution.
AdvertisementU.S. officials traveling with Clinton said privately they were uncertain what al-Faisal meant, since the Saudi government has been explicit in its support of sanctions against Iran. They said he appeared to be suggesting that sanctions may not be effective and that other action could be required.
No kidding? I wonder what those other actions might be. Challenging Ahmadinejad to a game of Chinese checkers? Whoever the “U. S. officials” were they were being more than a tad disingenuous. Prince Saud might as well have been singing John McCain’s favorite Beach Boys song aloud. You remember the one – a parody of “Barbara Ann” with a little extra oomph in the lyrics (“Bomb, Bomb, Bomb…Bomb Iran” for those of you who missed the last election). And Saud was most likely singing to the Israelis because it would be hard to have confidence in the Obama people at this point when they have spent their entire term in office allowing the mullahs more time (approaching fourteen months now) to build a “Barbara Ann” of their own.
As for sanctions, who could believe in them? Certainly not a Saudi, who lives across the street from the mad mullahs, or certainly not even any remotely impartial observer who has watched Khamenei & Co. put the boot to their own people since the Iranian election/selection. If they can shoot their own citizens in the streets, do you think they’ll really be worried about sanctions from abroad, sanctions that any un-law-abiding mullah knows never hold up for long anyway? Clinton herself is now finally admitting that Iran is “moving toward a military dictatorship.” Toward? What has it been? Well, a religious and military dictatorship lead by theocrats who believe in the coming of their Mahdi/messiah amidst global chaos. Those kind of millenialists are going to worry about sanctions? They love the bomb more than Dr. Strangelove did – or Slim Pickens…. Well, maybe a few of the more cynical mullahs in the pistachio business have more sense, but I wouldn’t bet the house on them.
No wonder Prince Saud is worried. I wouldn’t be surprised if he woke up in the middle of the night whispering, “Benjamin Netanyahu, save me.” Not that I would want to be Netanyahu. You want to be the leader of a country these days, you’re asking for a lot more than you bargained on. I wouldn’t doubt Barack Obama is feeling that right now – and then some. With all his domestic problems, he needs Iran like the proverbial hole in the head. But Iran he is going to have – in a big way – like it or not. I don’t know what he or anybody else is going to do about it, but it may be time to reconsider the famous words of Trotsky… even if he never said them.
The Saudis have been working with Israel for a long time. Now that rimless zero is running the U.S. they will be even more working hand in hand.
Also the rest of the world notices the Americans are becoming more and more furious with this administration with the result that the dollar is up. I do not see Iran actually doing anything.
The Shite Iranian mullahs might consider the Sunni Saudi leaders to be heretics. They may very well perceive them as only one step ahead of the infidel Christians and Jews. The United States had a peculiar relationship with the Soviets during WWII. Israel and Saudi Arabia could also be compelled to embrace the ancient adage of The Middle East: the enemy of my enemy is my friend (at least temporarily).
As one who is generally allergic to delusional thinking, hope and change rhetoric, and quick to recognize what registers high on the bullsh-t meter, I thought EXACTLY the same thing as Roger when I read about the Saudi’s response to Clinton.
Even the Saudis, who have exported Islamic fascism worldwide for decades, understand which way the mushroom clouds are aiming, and they too have their limits. Their red lines revolve around staying alive long enough to enjoy the financial fruits of their fomented jihad, and making sure that their oil revenues keep on keeping on. Not so the mad mullahs and the Iranian Hitler. They have visions, expectations of the bloodiest global confrontation imaginable, all in order to reap the rewards of the return of their Mahdi.
What Bibi and the Saudi Prince have in common is their innate desire to survive, and realistically (no hopey change for them) concluded that only military strikes will save their nations.
So, these VERY desperate times call for desperate measures, and it does not require much stretching of the imagination to conclude that our PM has been conferring with one particular Prince.
Threats of annihilation do make for strange bedfellows.
It looks to me like the end game is going to arrive any day now, that is, the Israeli air strike on both Iran’s nuclear program and a magnetic pulse strike on Iran’s electronic infrastructure. Of course when that finally happens, all bets are off and the new reality will have a vengeance seeking Iran directly attacking American warships in the Persian Gulf, Iranian missiles hitting American interests throughout the region, and serious Iranian attempts to cut off the Persian Gulf oil supplies. Hizballah, Hamas, al Qaida, and every other terrorist group affiliated with, supplied by, and financed by Iran will launch attacks everywhere they can, especially on Israel. There is even the possibility that Syria will join Iran in it’s military attack on American interests. Only one thing is sure and that is that some very tough times are coming for the Middle East, America, Israel, and if the oil supplies are damaged, the rest of the world.
Very interesting read. It might be interesting to see Saudis (and Arabs opposed to Iran) working with Israel, even if on a temporary basis.
Ken Besig:
If a you suggest, there was an EPM strike upon Iran then I don`t think there would be many(if any) Iranian missiles capable of a launch against anyone or anything after its effects take hold…
However the effects of whipping up Middle-East terrorism to extreme levels would make such a strike,somewhat of a difficult call to make? I do like (in principal)the fact that a more “limited” amount of civilian casualties would occur compared to other types of attacks and that the regime would probably fall rather quickly as the countries entire infrastructure would be screwed…
This scenario is somewhat a theoretical prospect (in my view) as I do believe that Iran could be persuaded into a positive position with regards its nuclear ambitions and relationship with the West,by altering their stance on the petro-euro back to the petro-dollar and therby negating the need for military action against them?
#4 Thomson has it right, but Saudis don’t want an Israeli full-bore attack because they fear that an Iran counter-attack would spill over on them (they’re worried about their wells, not their people).
The Saudis started all this with their investments in Arab Rage and Muslim Terror, including in this country through the Saudi Institute’s destabilizing the African-American population through prison indoctrination and much, much more. Saudis have kept the anti-Jewish fervor boiling for 60 years.
Time to put a lead wall around Israel and let the rest — all of ‘em — glow in the dark.
Ken:
I agree that Iran will attempt to lash out but you can count Hezbollah out of the equation. If Israel decides to use its military muscle againt Iran Hezbollah will know the gloves are off and they will be crushed if they jump in.
Hezbollah is probably the most rational, and therefore the most dangerous, Middle East terrorist organizations. They will always ask what in it for them? Their base is their political power in Lebanon and they know if the Israeli’s decide to go all out they will not survive intact. Iran will make will the phone call but Hezbollah will have the anwering machine on.
I suspect that the Saudi’s will, very quietly, urge the Isrealis to strike at Iranian nuclear targets. The Saudi’s and all the rest of the Sunni Arab states cannot afford to have an aggressive nuclear Iran. It would set off a huge arms race in the Middle East. All of those states will have to implement a crash nuclear weapons development program in order to not be overwhelmed by the Iranians. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey and Jordan will have no other choice but to develop a weapons program.
i see the Saudi intelligence working very hard to cut Irans influence in the beach areas. most likely some more hisbollah chiefs will mysteriously bite the dust. the Egyptians are cutting off Hamas/Iran as we speak. Pakistan is curtailing their nut cases.hmmm whats going on here. we have to let our Muslim allies take care of their business for a change, the big satan ain’t going to do spit for them.
So……. Will the Saudis allow transit through their airspace and provide tanker support? After all, they would be richly compensated by oil going to $200!!!
Oil will be less and less important with shale gas coming on so rapidly. In only three years US stopped importing LNG. A big, expensive LNG terminal in Texas is sitting idle. Go into NO HOT AIR for details.
Mr. Marsden
You are quite correct that an Israeli EMP would cripple the Iranian military, but I doubt that Israel has the capacity to blanket all of Iran with that weapon. Israel does have the capacity to inflict that sort of damage on the Teheran area, which would be devastating but not debilitating.
tdviina
It is altogether possible that even Iran would respond diplomatically to an Israeli military strike rather than take a chance on an all out regional war. This is because any attack on the American military forces in the area would almost certainly result in a quick and complete end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, most of Iran’s political and religious leadership, as well as most of the Iranian military.
No doubt the wealthy, but unwilling to shed their own blood, saudis would like to engage the services of america to wage war on another of their enemies. We neutralized saddam for israel and the saudis, and that just unleashed iran.
Is it right to send our children to die so that those in the middle east need not fight their own wars?
If not Saudi Arabia, then I would imagine that the Israelis are already dealing with the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain. While noted imbecile and Joo-hater Zbigniew Brzezinski would want US forces to shoot down Israeli planes overflying Iraq, Israel may be already staging aircraft and assets directly across the Gulf, cutting down the time to target(s) by a significant factor and allowing for heavier payloads as well as the element of surprise. I would also imagine Israeli special forces going in ahead of the strike to take out radar and communications as was done by us at the start of Desert Storm.
There are a few problems with the EMP idea…
1) It would be hard to have effective EMP in important areas of Iran without doing immense damage in Iraq and some other neighboring states.
2) EMP means going nuclear. There is no way of setting of a significant EMP pulse without an exo-atmospheric nuke.
3) Military systems are the least vulnerable to EMP. It is likely that the Iranians have hardened their most critical systems.
4) EMP is a strike at civilians. It is the civilian infrastructure that crashes the hardest.
Screw EMPs, just nuke their nuclear sites outright. Israel doesn’t have the firepower to take out the Iranian nuclear program with conventional weapons; they will need to cross the nuclear threshold to do it. The upside is that these sites are a significant distance away from population centers- you just don’t put a nuclear reactor in the middle of a city, nor a major military facility. You put them on the outskirts.
#8: The mullahs are in a hurry, because demographics are against them and they know it. They only have a couple of decades to change the world, and there is nothing the world can offer them except complete surrender.
#14: Ron, is this the NO HOT AIR you were referring to?
A theater level EMP can be done without a nuke, but it wouldn’t be enough, by itself. Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is hardened and distributed. But the real problem is the regime, instead of going after the centrifuges, strike at the regime itself. Destroy it’s ability to intimidate it’s own people, and how long can it survive?
I hesitate to disagree with my fellow Israeli, Mr. Besig, but I think that Larry D. is right. The real problem is the régime, not the weapons. A nuclear Iran with a peace-loving régime would not be a threat to anybody but the Gulf States and the perhaps the Christian countries bordering the Kavkáss in the northwest.
One has to get rid of the régime. This, I fear, requires a two nuclear bombs – one to hit Tehran, and one to hit Qom. Last may, I made the case for attacking Iran with nuclear weapons. This article lays out in detail why a nuclear strike is necessary as opposed to the other options on the table. This was before the elections and the near constant confrontation between the citizenry and the dictatorship in Iran.
These confrontations have changed the algebra in the equation, so to speak. So, attacking Tehran with nukes is not a good option at all, as it could bring the surviving Persians to hate us more than they the dictators they demonstrate against today.
The optimal solution is for someone to light a fire under the opposition’s butt to convey to them in clear and unmistakable terms that they need to get rid of the régime soon in order to protect the country from outside nuclear attack by people who really do not want to pursue that option – Jews who would prefer to see Persians as friends rather than enemies. And it should not be forgotten (as too many outsiders to the region so easily forget) that the Islamic Republic has a gun at our heads already – the missiles of HizbAllah – and they can choose to use them even before they achieve the capability of nuking Tel Aviv.
Once those missiles from the north are in play, there is no guarantee that this country, faced with an in extremis situation, will not choose to decimate Tehran and Qom in a column of nuclear flame.
That just isn’t true. You can do a small tactical level EMP (effective radius a few hundred yards, maybe) without a nuke.
I do believe we have reached a state where Israel will only be able to stop the program with the use of tactical “bunker-buster” nukes.
Let’s hope they have something better up their sleeve. One ICBM armed nutso state (NK) is all the world needs, and we sure don’t need a nuclear arms race in the Persian Gulf.
If we get one, when the mushroom clouds clear, we can rename it to something other than “Persian” Gulf.
OTOH, I fear that the opposition is not going to be enough. The history of revolutions against regimes willing to use brutal force is not impressive, as long as the security forces remain loyal to the regime.
Wouldn’t surprise me if this is true. Israel is the strongest Middle East nation. It’s the only thing standing between Iran and the rest of the Middle East. Arabs like the Saudis might hate Israel, but I bet they fear Iran even more.
#21 Ruvy
I am not so sure that a regime change in Teheran would necessarily result in a government any more conciliatory towards Israel or the Jewish People than the present one. The mullahs have had more than thirty years to deeply impress a genocidal form of anti Semitism on the mind set of the Iranian people. Indeed, the Iranian form of eliminationist anti Semitism is even more venomous than that which is usually encountered among the Arab states, and which could be even more severe than that which the German Nazis impressed upon the German people, and remember, the Nazis had only about 12 years to carry out their brainwashing. I am also deeply impressed by the fact that the name of the state, Iran, means “The Land of the Aryans” a point which rather endeared the German Nazis to the Iranians because of it’s racially provocative and largely anti Semitic overtones. However there is no sign whatsoever that the present Iranian regime is in any trouble or in danger of losing power. And even worse, there are all the signs that the Iranian security and military forces are so deeply religiously and politcally indoctrinated in favor of the mullahs that unlike the Savak or the Shah’s forces, they are both willing and happy to use the maximum lethal force to protect the regime.
An Israeli military strike of some sort is the only practical answer to the Iranian nuclear program. Unfortunately at this late date this strike will only serve to delay the program; only the Americans have the forces and means close enough to the area to completely put the program out of commission for good.
And the Americans under Obama aren’t going to lift a finger against Iran although they might talk really tough. There will be no UN sanctions, no US military strike, and no restrictions on Iran financially.
Israel will have to go it alone this time, and may God help us!
No one should be surprise when the Saudis turn
a blind eye and let the Israeli’s jets cross
their air space. Don’t forget, the motto in the middle east is clear. The enemy of my enemy is my friend, and the Saudis know it very well.
Israel will have only one change (assumning it does anything) so how can it do anything but use atomic weapons.
I for one do not have any particular desire to breath Israeli fallout….but then I also do not want to get old either.
Oh well, Israel will act in it’s own interests and I support them 100%
Anthony Cordesman has written a very carefully thought through paper on this subject—all based on open sources. I’m sorry not to have a link but he is well known and should be easy to Google.
He concludes:
1. Of the three possible aircraft attack routes the one following the Syrian/Turkey border is the best. The Israelis have the aircraft and capacity to make a decisive strike. However, aircraft losses might be as high as 30%.
2. A better option is the use of Israeli mid-range missals, also able to deliver a decisive outcome.
3. The nuclear plume from a strike on these facilities could poison or kill tens of thousands, depending on winds, hundreds of thousands.
I concluded that no country would want to pay the political price for number three above. Right or wrong Israel would be shunned, decisively isolated politically and economically. Think of South Africa. Being their principle ally we wouldn’t be far behind on the political “hit parade”.
Iran, using small boat “swarms”, could close the Striates of Hormuz for an indeterminate period of time. Iranian volunteers would attack all of our military assets in the ME and else where. And as far as fearing American power it is not difficult to see that our military is fully engaged and then some. We had long term problems pacifying desert Iraq, imagine mountainous Iran with three times the population.
For the above reasons I don’t see a military option as viable.
well all the arabs states except lebanon and now iraq are democracys all these gulf states hate iran cause they are scared of being overthrown by them these princes just want to keep having there billion dollar planes boats ect and goverment blackcards for personal use i am lebanese shiat and i hate every arab dictator i dont know why the us backs these idiots guess cause they kiss ass to be protected and keep there black cards
The Navy is well prepared to deal with the “swarms.” If out CIC has the cojones, the Iranians would only reap what they sow. It would be messy for a month, and then the Iranian regime would be no more – one way or the other.
Late last summer it was noted that, earlier that summer (June), for the first time ever, Egypt allowed an Israeli military vessel to transit the Suez canal. That ship was one of Israel’s nuclear capable submarines. Early last fall, the saudis announced that they would have no objection to Israeli overflight of its airspace.
Apparently, the sub was mapping the waters and littorals of the Persian Gulf. While Turkey would make a better site for an air attack, the current political situation in that country renders it unlikely, hence the approach from Saudi. While landing and refueling there aren’t likely options, overflight and in-flight refueling would be.
While the Arabs may hate the Israelis, they hate and fear the Persians. Read a text on ancient history to find out why. The last time something like this happened was the strike on the reactor in Syria. Any Arab criticism was muted. The Arabs have a saying: me against my brother; me and my brother against my cousin; me, my brother, and my cousin against the stranger. In this instance, the Saudis and the Eqyptians have deiced that the Israelis are the cousin, and Iran (the mullahs) are the stranger.
And the civilian casualties? Hook-billed though I am I cannot imagine giving the order that will poison so many thousands (nor do I see Big O wanting that as his historical legacy) and not just Iranians, depending on the winds, south, onto our allies or east…
Far from a regime change I see just the opposite. The Iranian hard liners getting on TV with something along the lines of, “Brothers look what the infidels have done to our women and children… “ And you can be sure that the media will keep it going 24 hours a day, especially as children scream their way into oblivion. The outcome, right out of OBL play book, in fact at the top of his list, a world war between the West and Muslims of which there are of the latter some 1.2 billion (well that was just this morning’s count).
There are almost 20 million Muslims in Europe, several million here and there will be, I opine, hell to pay. Thank God Turkey wasn’t accepted into the EU or there would be millions more to contend with. Turkey by the way is as far in Iran’s pocket as it’s possible to be without marrage.
The alternative? Just as bad. The whole point of the Iraq/Iranian war some years ago was competition to see who would become overlord of the ME. The two of them suffered, combined, somewhere over a million casualties; it was serious business.
When Iran gets the bomb it isn’t just going to be “Iran, now nuclear armed” it’s going to be swagger and hubris. Everyone in the ME will fall into line… or, “Something terrible might happen you.” Europe will be ‘told’ to keep out and they will. Israel will come under constant low level and medium level attack i.e. rockets, etc. There will be no more “Cast Leads” because Iran will take them right to the brink, a country remember who during the nine year Iraq war showed they were indifferent to casualties.
The price of oil will go up. How high? How about $500 a pint—Chinese receiving a discount so the Iranians can keep that Big Dog in their corner. The point won’t be money anymore but destroying the economies of the West. Any increase will give Russia a shot in the arm though demographically they are a dead body on their way to the floor. Big new lease on life for Chavez though, same with Nigeria. Atomic power and shale and tar sands oil will look real good but some time before it can take up the slack. Thank the Democratic part for that.
The Saudis are talking… the Saudis want… please don’t make my gorge rise. What they want is to not confront any problems but have someone else wave a magic wand and make it all go away.
Would countries of the ME turn to the US for shielding? That would mean depending on Oboma. Would you?
A hard rain is going to fall gentlemen.
We have to teach our sons… how did it go now…
To ride.
To shoot.
To tell the truth.
That was the ancient law, and though old times are past.
The ancient law still holds true, oh, little son.
Truth be told I was never completely comfortable with my last post here and like Scrooge being visited by the ghost of Christmas future I was visited last night by the ghost of Curtis LeMay; and after he left I wondered, “Man, I wonder what size his boots are.”
Things are not going to get better with Iran’s nuclear ambitions and each day it gets measurably worse—the leadership makes Hitler look like a moderate. What’s more some appalling development that no one for saw may leap from this Pandora’s Box at any moment.
What to do?
1. Iranian population in general warned that time is up. Population centers around the refining facilities warned to get out forthwith.
2. Iran told that if they do not accept complete inspection of all their nuclear facilities by the 82nd airborne (I would love to take credit for this part but it was really CL’s idea) within five (5) days they will cease to exist.
3. Iranian leadership and population be prepared for the fact that parts of your country will be a cinder that will glow in the dark for the next 50,000 years.
And then let the bombs and the cards fall where they may.
“1. Iranian population in general warned that time is up. Population centers around the refining facilities warned to get out forthwith.”
Attack USA/Israel attacks Iran this is would would happen:
Thats fine that means all opposition would back the current president and the supreme leader and have nearly everyone (including women) sign up for miltary including suicidal missions. And iran would close the straigs! They would also tell hamas, hezbollah and their sleeper cells in to break the backs of there enemies. 5,000 dead per dead in NYC would not be unheard of! (How many of those attacks would the public endure they want to end the “war”) (Even if it doesn’t kill 5,000 it would install a fear not seen since 9/11!)
2. Iran told that if they do not accept complete inspection of all their nuclear facilities by the 82nd airborne (I would love to take credit for this part but it was really CL’s idea) within five (5) days they will cease to exist.
See #1
3. Iranian leadership and population be prepared for the fact that parts of your country will be a cinder that will glow in the dark for the next 50,000 years.
And then let the bombs and the cards fall where they may.
See #1
P.S. How many dead civs would you like before you say enough is enough?