Actually, in this case I mostly agree with him (Ross Douthat) when he opines, self-mockingly since it seems so obvious, that “Rudy is toast.” He’s probably been toast for a while but the success of McCain in SC put an extra level of brown crunch on the sour dough.
Still I wanted to use that headline… more fun… because there’s one area where Ross and I don’t agree. He thinks the Republican side is evolving into a two-man race between Romney and McCain. I think it’s gone further than that. Effectively, McCain has won. And, ironically, that is the worst nightmare for the Democrats and a fair number of Republicans. We Independents just laugh.
Meanwhile, Josh Marshall is suffering from FoM. Can’t say I blame him because he suspects what most of us do – that the most appealing figures in American politics today to the public (not to the pundits and the party regulars) are the politicians who don’t play by party rules.
Love this from Marshall:
For my part, I would have vastly preferred to see Mike Huckabee win this thing tonight.
No shit?
Well, tell you what, Josh: I’d rather Dennis Kucinich were the Democrat nominee. I think we’re both going to have to lern to cope.
But McCain’s victory tonight does set us up to get an answer to an important question: just how much enmity is there for John McCain among base Republican voters?
McCain/Thompson: Marshall’s nightmare.
Republicans have to remember that the office which is up for election is President of the
United States, NOT President of the Republican
Church.
I understand that the front loading will have an effect, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. McCain looks good at this point, but there are still many primaries to go. Rudy’s strategy of starting with Florida will either be brilliant or stupid, but it seems to be a strategy. I don’t think he expected to have his national poll ratings tank this much, but maybe he did. Romney has a very well organized campaign, and that really does count for something. McCain is the clear frontrunner, but there’s still a lot to go.
McCain will look better than Hillary probably no matter what, although Hillary will put Obama on the ticket if she thinks that what it will take to win. The contrast between McCain and Obama is impossible to forecast right now. If national security is a big issue next Fall, the election will belong to McCain. But if the public simply feels a vague angst and wants change, Obama will look vibrant next to the old McCain.
As usual, Josh Marshall is an absolute scream, whose fetching perfervidness is exceeded only by the studied earnestness of his tone. The latest “important question”:
“Just how much enmity is there for John McCain among base Republican voters?”
(As much as he dares to hope? Perhaps much more, if he’s lucky, or if God exists?)
This while the Democratic front-runners are busy tearing one another to shreds….
McCain has shown he can win among independants. He has not yet shown he can win among Republicans. Florida will be pretty important–winning it will require convincing Rudy’s supporters that he can’t win and that McCain is the next best choice.
…will require convincing Rudy’s supporters that he can’t win
And that will be a difficult thing to do, I mean Rudy is only Five delegates behind the ever popular Ron Paul and Seven Delegates behind the exciting candidacy of Fred Thompson. I mean, if most of the candidates were to die, or be caught with a Wide Stance between now and November, Rudy might well be on top of the heap.
*snort*
Roger, Roger, the laughing Independent. Please read Stanley Fish, “Against Independent Voters”, in today’s NYT. He is right on.