The two World War II axis powers are moving in opposite directions sixty years after that great conflagration. More specifically, Germany seems to be going nowhere fast while Japan, under the creative leadership of Junichiro Koizumi, is headed for radical capitalist experimentation, privatizing its post office and turning it into the world’s largest (private) bank. If the old saw “Fortune favors the daring” has any validity, there’s little question which country is making the right choice, certainly the more interesting one.
Meanwhile in Germany, Deutsche Post remains
a monopoly refusing to privatise and blocking competition efforts inside Germany, while using its substantial revenues outside Germany to compete with Fedex and UPS, inside the US and worldwide, by owning DHL and Airborne. Watch those yellow trucks.
P.J. O’Rourke has an argument (not sure if original with him) that nations looking for a change tend to pick another currently successful nation to copy. Japan is one noted for having been particularly adept (or lucky, if you prefer) at both timing and the choice.
The prototypical example is copying the British navy while the Russians copied the French, leading up to the 1905 Russia, Japan war.
Roger:
Most economic and political systems has it’s glaring weakness along with benifits. The european model of cradle to grave nanny welfare system could possibly work if it’s unions and worker representitives saw themselves as part of the entire picture rather then autonomous groups who looked after their own first, everyone else be damned. The inability of the German and French left leaning parties to get even minor reductions in social spending is the glaring weak spot in their systems. Both Schroeder and Chirac looked at the math and tried to implement minor reductions. Of course these reductions would not solve the problem but they were attacked by the left wings of their parties as abandoning the people and protecting the wealthy. There is a sweetness in seeing them on the receiving end of that left wing propaganda.
Tony Blair reaped the benifits of Thatcher crushing the trade unions and it allowed him to ignore the loons on the left because Thatcher had destroyed their political muscle. They were so emasculated Blair was able to ignore them when he had to make a light trim on government spending or allow a slight reduction of government regulation on private industry. Thatcher took the strikes and broke the ability of the trade unions to hold the government hostage. Germany and France will never fall out of their slump until someone repeats Thatchers boldness.
“Germany and France will never fall out of their slump until someone repeats Thatchers boldness.”
Kevin P., you’re correct. And THAT won’t happen until a brave Prime Minister senses that he has a healthy majority behind him. Given current Zeropean tendencies, that may get really dicey…
To fully understand the impact of this requires a little perspective on just what function the Post Office serves in the average Japanese person’s life.
Japan is largely a cash society. While credit cards have in the last ten years become more common and accepted at more places, the vast majority of purchases, especially in rural areas, is done with cash. A lot of this cash moves through the Post Office, since it is not only a place to buy stamps and ship packages, but also a universal point of paying almost anyone for anything.
At the Post Office you can pay your water bill, gas bill, electric bill, transfer money to another person or a business. For example, it is common when placing a phone or mail order to be given a kind-of “account number” to which the money is to be sent. So you zip on down to the Post Office (usually within walking distance in most cities), hand them your cash and tell them where to wire it.
More importantly, the Japan Postal System also operates a huge deposit and savings system. I believe the Post Office accounts usually represent more long-term retirement-style savings, but I’ll go out on a limb and say that most Japanese people have a Post Office account, either out of convenience (they go there all the time anyway) or tradition. This is huge reserves in a country that traditionally has one of the higher saving rates (as a side note, my feeling is that their cash economy helps to drive this rate up, as it is just more painful to spend cash than plastic).