It seems European leaders were no more impressed by the Washington Post’s self-serving unsourced intell leakers than I was. You remember – the ones who said only a day or two ago that Iran was ten years away from nuclear weapons. Otherwise, I doubt the Europeans would be putting so much pressure on that country, as is now being reported by the IHT.
PARIS: In an effort to end the stand-off over Iran’s nuclear program, senior European negotiators on Friday submitted a sweeping proposal to Tehran, offering economic and political incentives and support for its ambitions to generate nuclear power if it abandons activities that could develop nuclear weapons.
But by calling an extraordinary session on Tuesday of the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Europeans also appeared to signal that their proposal was an ultimatum that if rejected would make the prospect of sending the case to the UN Security Council more likely.
The proposal was handed to the new Iranian leadership by ambassadors from France, Germany and Britain, the three countries that have spearheaded a diplomatic initiative to dissuade Iran from pursuing ambiguous nuclear activities that might be used to make an atomic bomb.
Tehran said it would examine the document and respond within two days.
And the beat goes on… But, in retropect, that anonymous reporting by the WaPo seems even more cynical and shoddy. Shame on them.
MEANWHILE: For Iran, “trouble ahead, trouble behind.” No wonder they’re pushing for nukes.
Color me cynical, but the incentive (i.e. extortion) route worked so well with DPRK I have no doubt we’ll eventually see similar results with Iran.
The problem isn’t so much the goal (develop nuclear capability) as it is who wants to get there. As I’ve said before, if Canada or Denmark or Norway got a wild hair and decided to start a nuclear weapons program I’d hardly loose a night’s sleep. They probably won’t, though, since there is no economic incentive to do so and among liberal democracies cash is king. The problem is that among totalitarian states the ego and personal ambitions of the few decide the national policy. This is what makes them dangerous and contributes to regional instability.
There is one and only one solution to the Iranian nuclear threat that has any potential for long-term success: remove the mullahs from power and give it to the people.
You don’t have to be physicist to quickly figure out that WaPo article is ludicrous on its face. The Manhattan Project started from zero and built a bomb in 4 years. The knowledge base is now 60 years old and while building a bomb is not trivial there are hundreds if not thousands of individuals who know every detail of how to do it. No small number of them are available for a price and have been for years.
The only real question is who was the WaPo article intended to reach, and why? It’s a sticky wicket indeed when you have to wonder if your nation’s most influential media organizations are deliberately working against national interests.
Roger:
I hope the Europeans are succesful. Maybe there are stiff threats that are being given to the Iranians in secret. But from what I can read this is another series of blustering threats that have no teeth behind them. I would love to be shown to be wrong. It would be the most tasty dish of crow that I could ever eat.
Based on past history the economic incentives will be great but the inspection regime will be based on trusting the Mullahs. Even if it reaches the U.N. will anything be done other then a nasty resolution that the Iranians will use as toilet paper? If they reach a settlement these will be the signs that it will work. A real inspection regime that can’t be cancled by the Iranians on a whim. It will have to be written into the agreement that all economic agreements will be terminated for any violation. And of course we will have to hope that the French won’t try to do a end run around their fellow E.U. members as they did with the Cubans.My hopes are not high at this moment.
Kevin Peters
Apparently it’s just easier to co-opt a few journalists than to co-opt a few countries. Perhaps Eason Jordan could elaborate.