The stock market, not surprisingly, is soaring on news of a Bush victory. How much money is George Soros making on this? Enough to make up whatever he spent on the Kerry campaign?
The big winner in the polling department is again the remarkably accurate George Washington University Battleground Tacking Poll:
As of 9:30am this morning, the Associated Press estimate of the final popular vote is Bush=51.1%, Kerry=47.9%, Other=0.58%, and Nader=0.34%. The Tarrance Group prediction for the popular vote, based on the GWU Battleground Tracking Poll was Bush=51.2%, Kerry=47.8%, Other=0.5%, and Nader=0.5%. (hat tip: Steve Finerock)
Back to work, via Rantburg:
North Korea has spelled out its terms for rejoining six-nation talks on its nuclear programme, saying the outcome of the US vote will have no bearing on resolving the crisis, a report said.
The isolated Stalinist state said talks would depend on the US dropping human rights demands on Pyongyang and abandoning sanctions.
Back to work, via Rantburg:
North Korea has spelled out its terms for rejoining six-nation talks on its nuclear programme, saying the outcome of the US vote will have no bearing on resolving the crisis, a report said.
The isolated Stalinist state said talks would depend on the US dropping human rights demands on Pyongyang and abandoning sanctions.
Back to work, via Rantburg:
North Korea has spelled out its terms for rejoining six-nation talks on its nuclear programme, saying the outcome of the US vote will have no bearing on resolving the crisis, a report said.
The isolated Stalinist state said talks would depend on the US dropping human rights demands on Pyongyang and abandoning sanctions.
Sorry, major hiccup.
Did Kerry just move his statement back????
Oy.
EURSOC is very, very informative today, I recommend you peruse it.
Roger
What you say is true and they deserve kudos but more permanent to conventional wisdom is one simple thing, that Gallop Polls last Job Approval rating is the gold standard to measure the popular vote by. What was it for Bush… 51%! Zogby is now discredited in my opinion, he couldn’t keep his partisanship out of his numbers, I won’t be hiring him any time soon.
I’ll add one last thing. For all my fellow “Neo-cons” like you, Ron Silver or myself, we need to remember that the Gary Bauer Social Conservative type must be dealt with respect, especially in our differences for without this class of conservative we have no governing majority in which we can take up our our own moralist causes. Bush is not a neo-conservative, he is a social conservative whose moral compass inspires common ground with the moralist nature common to neo-conservatives. Irving Kristol is abolutely right when he says that Social Conservatives are a Neocon’s natural ally in building coalitions to do Neo-conservative actions. The bottom line is that the 20% of the electorate that voted on “values alone” are a critical group.
I saw this on real clear politcs, but I think it was ignored because it was considered a Republican polster, ergo patisan. And Zogby wasn’t?
It has been a long time since a president won this decisively. Hell I think Bush should contest Wisconsin and PA. just kidding. Leave the Dems some pride.
Samuel,
I’m happy to have you, and the rest of the heritics with us. As a conservative Republican with libertarian leanings and an agnostic with severe skepticism toward organized religion, your call to treat the social conservatives with respect is welcome.
I’ve tired over the years of trying to explain that most social conservative values are not necessarily tied to religion (specificaly those dreaded fundamentalist Christians).
Those ideas are worthy of respect in and of themselves. Just to pick ( but not discuss ) a certain hot button, try abortion. A completely justifiable argument can be made that abortion is murder without any recourse to religion. If you don’t agree with this, fine, but address the merits rather than the straw man of religion.
To paraphrase the econauts, think global, act local. Deal with these social issues at the local and state level. Persuade people get legislation passed and you can carry the day. The problem is when things like Roe v. Wade or the Mass. Supreme Court gay marriage decision try and short circuit the building process that takes time and effort. Even if you win, you only get contention.
Via Bros. Judd:
Hope the cheese they sent w/this w(h)ine was exceptional:
…ìWeíre going to work with the American administration, Barnier said. ìWe have lots to do on current crises: Iraq, the Middle East, Iran, the challenges of the African continent, to rebuild, to renovate trans-Atlantic relations.î
Whoever wins, ìthis is a new step that starts at a very important moment for the world.î
Barnier said that the United States and Europe ìneed each other.î
AlanC – a kindred soul in my “I don’t need religion to have values” wasteland! Glad to meet you.
Sandy P – did that Euro happen to mention what it is s/he thinks we “need” from them?
Sandy P,
Thanks for the tip re: EURSOC. Seems to be some interesting stuff out there. I’ve been noticing among my Euro friends – even the ones who are about as fully Americanized as possible – that they are having huge difficulty getting at a core understanding of the concept of the Electoral College. Not intellectually – it just isn’t that difficult. But they seem to find the whole thing baffling at some level. They can’t quite come to grips with the idea that a “democratic” system can be specifically designed to protect regionalism by allowing for the potential of the popular vote being ignored in favor of the EV. This is especially true when it comes to the “winner takes all” nature of each state’s EVs.
I typically try asking things like, “Well, as Europe moves toward the EU federation how will, for example, Poland be protected from always being forced into whatever Germany and France want?” They get that to a small extent but can’t seem to make that last leap of “faith”. Then I try to ‘splain that if you devide the EVs of each state by that state’s popular vote proportion you run the risk of defeating the protection of the EC.
Oh well. I try. It ain’t easy being a knucklehead.
knuclehead:
Ref: Euro weenie: I have good friend who is a Hagelite Republican. I keep telling him that I am much closer to him then he thinks on many international relations issues. We need to clean up this GWOT mess in the next four years so we can part our ways with the Old World. The core of European civilization is dead. The surviving elements need to make a decision whether to peacefully go to the grave or to fight for their existence. I really don’t want to send my son to Europe to bail them out again. I would rather see us “withdraw” our troops from France and let them deal with the situation.
Reading about Theo van Gogh tells me itís past the point of no return when it comes territorial defense. It’s come down to Milosovic-like methods. Europeans used to be rather good at that. We lost our desire to do such things when the western frontier had closed. Let the free riding Europeans take control of their own fate.
America is still a dynamic nation. Our future is to be found with other dynamic societies in Asia. Horace Greeleyís advice is still good. Look West young man, look west.
This is a really bad moment for most of the ruling elites of the world. Despite their best efforts and the aid of their allies in the MSM Bush managed to pull it off. One wonders what will happen now that President Bush no longer has to modify his conduct to appease the appeasers here in the US. He’s a lame duck now. If I was Kim Jong-Il (msp?) or an Iranian mullah I would be shaking with fright right now.
We do live in interesting times.
Sounds like we agree pretty closely re: Europe, Jerry. To paraphrase my mom, “they’ve made their bed now they can sleep in it.” Tomorrow’s problems and opportunities lie to the west, in the east
The EC is easy to explain if they understand how the World Series is won.
Most games, not most runs.
Pure democracy is mob rule. Sounds great if you’re the majority, but if you’re not……
Tcobb:
While “lame duck” is a technically correct description, somehow I have difficulty with the image vis-a-vis Pres. Bush.
Dear Mr. Knucklehead,
The pleasure is all mine. Re the non-necessity of Religion in Values….I look with bemusement on all the kerfluffle over the 10 Commandments.
Take out the specifically religious few (“no other G_d before me, keep the Sabbath holy) what’s not to like for any civilized person?
Especially if you change one word (which I read many years ago was a mis-translation) and make it “Thou shalt not murder”, the whole thing seems eminently reasonable.
Now, we can discuss which of these moral codes should be law and which should be left to the social compact (not laws, but, shame based constraint). That’s where my libertarian streak kicks in.
Peter:
The turn lame duck originally meant the period of time from the national election in November to the inauguration at the end of March. Today, it best applies to the President after the second midterm election in an 8 year term. President Bush still wields tremendous political power up until the third year of the second term. If the MSM thinks Bush is lame duck then they are in for a surprise.
If the MSM thinks Bush is lame duck then they are in for a surprise.
Once again we see that denial is not just a river in Egypt.
(So it’s a cliché. I’ve always liked it and I’m gonna use it.)