During the presidential debates both candidates seemed to be assuming Bin Laden is alive. Maybe they know more than we do. Senator Kerry, the man who wouldn’t even attack Saddam after he invaded Kuwait, went so far as to vilify Bush for letting Usama “escape” in Tora Bora, although no one has any proof he did escape (or any real proof that Usama was really there, to my knowledge). Perhaps the Senator was relying on this report from the head of German intelligence, only made public today. But even that is equivocal. I remain skeptical that Usama is alive. A narcissist of that magnitude could not resist parading his phiz on television. (And, yes, I’m aware of the “he’s injured” argument, but it wouldn’t take Bernardo Bertolucci to deal with that possibility.)
But more important I don’t think it matters much if UBL is alive. It’s simple-minded to think that his death or incarceration would change much, just as it is tendentious to blame everything on “Al Qaeda.” “Al Qaeda” is no more than one constantly morphing name for the hydra-head of Islamism. Kerry’s argument that Bush was shirking his duty by not concentrating on “Al Qaeda” is specious and, I hope (for all our sakes), the Senator is smart enough to know that. I also I assume that his supporters in the Mainstream Media are intelligent enough to know that Saddam could support the Islamists one day and kill them the next. This is the way things go, as anyone covering the Mafia for decades (as that same MSM does) would know. Making that clean break between Saddam and “Al Qaeda” is just another Big Lie of the Mainstream Media, but it is such an obvious one that it is almost embarrassing. Time to change their URL along with UBL’s.
OBL is just a red herring. Simply capturing him doesn’t mean that we will all break out into “hurrah, we’re now all getting along.” We still have to deal with his ideology that has so many followers.
Last week on Brit Hume’s show (the most rational news show on television) they interviewed the Commander of Cent Com’s Sepcial Forces Ops. His analysis was more or less along the same lines as your Roger, “you cannot lead A-Q from behind.”
Despite Kerry’s lies about Tora Bora, I remeber B-52′s droping sticks up in those mountains back then. I think OBL contracted a bad case of silicosis and went to paradise to collect his 72 clear raisins.
Problem is that the WoT is not one man, or one organization. The real war must be fought by depriving the terrorist organizations of their state sponsors, which are: 1. Iran, 2. Syria, 3. Saudia Arabia (some elements of the royal family), 4. Pakistan (ISI), 5. Lebanon (see 2) and by rooting out terrorist organizations and their bases. Much work will need to be done in Western Europe which will have to cease to tolerate places like the “Finsbury Park Mossque” which are little more than terrosist recruiting centers.
UBL’s URL!
Wonderful!
Roger, how do you come up with these?!
Jamie Irons
UBL’s URL!
Wonderful!
Roger, how do you come up with these?!
Jamie Irons
I’m glad that the attacks, if they had to happen at all, happened well before a national election. We have come a long way from 9/11 in understanding the threat that faces us. Now we know what our intelligence community and our government always knew but kept from us: it’s not a man, as you say, it’s a movement. I hope that all of America is up to speed on that fact come November.
That Kerry can blithely chatter on to the contrary shows his and the Dems utter moral and political vacuity.
On Sept. 9, when the first videotape of Zawahiri was released, I asked is Osama Bin Laden dead? –and answered with much of the same rationale that you used today, Roger. I couldn’t agree more. It is in al Qaeda’s best interest to keep the myth alive. Personally, I think we should call their bluff and announce he’s been killed and see if he magically appears.
Well, I’ve known all along that while UBL was the “Figure Head” of AQ, necessary in the beginning, once a certain critical mass occurred it wouldn’t matter if he were alive or dead, the morphing monster would continue on without him. Personally, I think he is a greasy smear inside of a Bora Tora tunnel, I agree with Roger that he would have never stayed out of the picture this long if he were alive. Wounded? Nah, that wouldn’t stop him. He’d still hog the camera. As for the rest of it, well, it may be true that there’s now a web of coordination and funding for the Islamo-Terrorists. It is a loosely knit web if it is. At least, at this point. And not because they want it to be that way. My concern is what it may become if the pressure eases. A Pan-Islamic web of radicals brings to mind a much more sinister thought I have, as expressed in another thread.
I see UBL as the “tree that fell in the forest and no one heard it”. Since he hasn’t made any sounds, he’s as good as dead.
Dr. Sanity:
Ok, I’ll go along with that, but I won’t buy it unless I see him holding a copy of today’s Karachi Times (or whatever) with the date clearly visible. Otherwise, how do we know that it isn’t stock footage?
And besides that, what difference would it make? Other than to know that we need to hunt the snake down? A general push against Islamo-Terrorists accomplishes much, and does so better than a targeted push against 1 man. It is sufficient to isolate him, if you know what I mean.
“‘Al Qaeda’ is no more than one constantly morphing name for the hydra-head of Islamism. Kerry’s argument that Bush was shirking his duty by not concentrating on ‘Al Qaeda’ is specious …”
What’s striking is the obviousness of this. That this even needs to be advanced as something of an argument (and it unfortunately does) is a reflection of just how far Kerry, among others, has dumbed down and otherwise misdirected the debate.
We don’t want a ME environment (or a Eurabia and active Western cells for that matter) in the forthcoming decades that will continue to allow for the gestation and growth of jihadist groups, al Queda and OBL being merely one, if prominent, manifestation thereof. We have to take the long view and concern ourselves with the next several decades because if they continue to gestate and grow it will simply be a matter of time (years or decades?) before WMDs arrive on our home turf. The logic of that is virtually insurmountable excepting by the use of preemptive strategies, including force, deployed in commensurate fashion. And even if that scenario is regarded as “merely” a worst case scenario, it nonetheless has to be regarded as an entirely viable scenario in terms of the short and longer term future, not dismissed or otherwise marginalized.
Ergo, as a primary strategy within the overall WoT, Iraq has been brilliant, even though miscalculations and mistakes have obviously been made. (Which is unlike which war, exactly?) 1) It’s a strategic locale within the overall geography. 2) It spearheads pivotal military initiatives that help to ensure the fight is taken to their ground, not our own. 3) It thus lays the groundwork for future commensurate actions, actions that will either be diplomatic and political only (largely due to the fact we have a credible deterrent and threat and have shown we in fact mean business) or will be first initiated with military force as Iraq itself exemplifies. 4) It lays the groundwork for a post-Saddam/Uday/Qusay Iraq itself, obviously enough, with all that entails both in terms of the positives and the challenges as well.
Alternatively we can imagine the world is different than it is.
Funny you should mention the Mafia. Where do you suppose that wonderful aspect of my cultural heritage came from?
There are many who believe that the southern coast and islets of Italy were heavily influenced by Arab frequent invaders and conquerors. I am one.
“This thing of ours” isn’t ours after all – it came from those who raped and pillaged us.
I remember specifically after Tora Bora that there were reports from Saudi Arabia that 2 Islamists who managed to escape from there spoke about Osama in past tense and gave a date of his demise: on or about 10th of December 2001.
We have never seen the man since. I know that CIA tells us abuout each and every tape ìwell, the voice is consistent with the pattern that we have on Osamaî, but I would have to see a video of him holding a current newspaper to believe that he is alive. There may very well be a man out there who calls himself Osama bin Laden, but I very much doubt that it is the original article.
Even if we identify his DNA from the wet spot in a cave in Tora Bora, what exactly is the upside for us in announcing his death? Dems and MSM will immediately scream: Mission Accomplished, letís go home, letís cut military and intelligence budgets, and open borders to illegal immigration. And letís scrap that nasty Patriot Act while we are at it.
Keeping up the myth that Osama is alive is very convenient to both sides of WOT. The Islamists have their Mahdi. We have ever-moving target. Should Bush win, it may turn up that Osama trail will lead us to, letís say Syria.
Looks like you have broad approval for your thesis, Roger–count me in as well; perhaps it bespeaks our tendency to have to personalize a movement rather than deal with movement–I dont know. Even if (and big if) OBL were alive and holed up–it makes no sense to commit large forces in pursuit. Those kind of arguments strike me as totally ignorant of such basic military considerations as economy of force and terrain.
Michael B:
What you say is quite true. But I do have 1 small point of contention. And that is where you refer to the terrorists eventual use of WMD’s here stateside as being the worst case scenario. Actually, I’d say that isn’t the worst case, but the second worst case. The worst case would be if the Islamic radicals formed their Pan-Islamic Calliphate, kbecame a 1st class world power of their own right, and then came knocking on our door with large scale thermonuclear weapons in large numbers on ICBM’s, ala the Soviet Union with lunatics at the switch, without the deterrability. Large Scale Global Thermonuclear War. Not just Massive Casualties, but the End of Civilization and possible extinction of mankind. THAT’s the worst case.
It would help if the President would articulate that–and often.
Roger:
I am with you here. I think OBL is dead. I just can’t imagine he could stay off the TV that long. Not with that ego of his.
Kerry is jsut using this because he has no principles and will use anything.
RogerA makes a good point.
The personification (celebrity) of UBL as the face of terror reminds me of the celebrity of Al Capone as the face of crime. It seems that the general population has a propensity to ignore the scope of an shadow-enemy and can only be mobilized by reducing it to a face.
Emerald Elixer:
I’m assuming that you are referring to my worst case scenario. I agree that it would be a good thing if the president were to actually articulate that, because it is a distinct possibility. But, no, I don’t think he will, because he would be dissed as being a scare monger. And they would be right. But he would be right, too. Too many people haven’t paid enough attention to what the stated goals of the radical Islamists actually are, and what that leads to. It’s just plain scary. It makes the global terrorism thing look like child’s play. I’m not talking about a city here and a city there going up with an intense radioactive glow, I’m talking about worldwide devastation.
What makes it scary is that they aren’t afraid to die if doing that will take out some infidels, they’ve shown that all along. And they’ve also demonstrated that they don’t really care that much about the welfare of their own people — what’s a few more martyrs? Hence, nuclear deterrent won’t.
Shudder.
Roger,
Your analogy to the Mafia is the model I have always thought fitted al Qaeda best,loosely affiliated,groups or famlies.Bin Laden was probably a figurehead,a rich boy nutcase expendable in the overall scheme of things.Only the rank a file live in the armpits of the planet,those at the top will never have left their air conditioned palaces and are overtly respectable pillare of their societies.
Like the Mafia there will be those who would like to move from armpit to palace,those like Zarqawi making a name for himself in an effort to rise up through the ranks.
There is one thing that those at the top shun more than anything and that is notoriety,those who make waves tend to get retired early.One day Zaqarwi will cease to be useful.
There will also be turf wars as individuals and factions jockey for power and lucrative drug and arms business.
All this are weaknesses that can be exploited to further fracture “al Qaeda”
BTW We will know when bin Laden is dead when there are repeated sightings of him on a white horse,that and they will start selling bits of him in amulets in the Souk.
I think that Bush should announce that he believes UBL to be dead. The two possibilities that would result would be 1)No reaction and no response which would be confirmation, or 2)UBL responds and in doing so, re-invigorates the pursuit and the battle.
I don’t see Bush losing either way.
Michael B:
I’m with you on the absolutely transparent strategy behind the Iraq front in the WoT. I suppose we can quibble about how effectively the President has articulated it, but then again, I’m not sure that we need a great deal of proof that the sun rises in the east.
“Even if (and big if) OBL were alive and holed up–it makes no sense to commit large forces in pursuit. Those kind of arguments strike me as totally ignorant of such basic military considerations as economy of force and terrain.”
Exactly, charging the red cape instead of the matador himself. By contrast, from perhaps the President’s most forceful, eloquent and well directed speech (too bad he isn’t more consistent in this vein, consistently Churchillian he is not):
We are not deceived by their pretenses to piety. We have seen their kind before. They are the heirs of all the murderous ideologies of the 20th century. By sacrificing human life to serve their radical visions — by abandoning every value except the will to power — they follow in the path of fascism, and Nazism, and totalitarianism. And they will follow that path all the way, to where it ends: in history’s unmarked grave of discarded lies.
For the excerpt, hattip to Belmont Club and Eject, Eject, Eject.
I’ve long thought bin Laden is dead, largely because he hasn’t shown up in video.
But the larger point is that the GWOT is not only about more than bin Laden, it’s about more than Al Quaeda.
I wish Bush would articulate that more, and the fact that Kerry thinks this is only about AQ shows he is either stupid or doesn’t care.
I also hope Bush can articulate why the Duefler (No WMD) Report and Food for Oil report actually strengthen the administration’s position. From his remarks to the press in Penn. today, it seems Bush understands this. I hope he tells the American people on Friday what the Deufler Report concludes:
A. Saddam had plans to restart WMD development as soon as the sanctions collapsed.
B. They were collapsing, and were not sustainable.
Honest observers can connect the dots as to what this meant in a world of “death cult” terrorists bent on destroying US cities. I hope Bush connects this for his audience tomorrow night.
More Bill Whittle:
We like to say that the world changed that day. What a ridiculous, self-centered thought. The world didn’t change. Our illusions about the world changed.
Except, as we’re seeing, some people’s illusions are stronger than others.
OBL’s URL : http://www.ashestoashes.com
I think Bush will use the report on wmd to back up the notion that Saddam was not contained.
I think Kerry will use the report to call Bush a liar.
How Democrats can avoid any responsibility for any of this is beyond me. But that is what Kerry will try.
It is the vote for me I am dumbass who could be fooled by Bushitler and I believe we should bribe the French to support us strategy.
Gb_in_ga, actually my response was to Roger Simon’s post.
Your worst case scenario is frightening. But I have faith our terrorist enemy won’t be able to contain themselves if possessing nuclear weapons. Use of WMD against the United States will ensure the ultimate destruction of the nations supporting Islamic terrorism…hopefully long before they actually become an Islamic power. At least I hope so.
I fully support the way President Bush is fighting this war on terrorism. The amount of lives (including Arab and Persian) that would be at stake if we put our heads in the sand and pretend the threat would go away would be more than just sobering.
I believe he’s dead. As far as the tapes go, voice identification is far from fool proof. Maybe, it’s my cultural bias, but his voice sounds so monotone. How difficult would it be for a relative to sound like him? I don’t want him captured alive. The muslims won’t kill him. And God forbid if he was tried here.
Emerald Elixir:
Sorry, I couldn’t tell by your prior post.
Now, as to your last post, I concur. I really don’t think they would contain themselves if they ever got the chance at a real, city busting nuke. I, too, think they’d use it at the first opportunity and therein doom themselves to our full retalliation. It wouldn’t be pretty. But it is their stated goal to set up that Calliphate, and if they manage to do that without self destructing, well, that is just too dreadful to contemplate. But the possibility is there, and that is the actual worst case scenario, not the suitcase nuke in Times Square scenario. Speaking of self destructing, there is that aspect of the great Calliphate issue: the struggle amongst them pertaining to just who gets to control the Calliphate. That struggle would tend to weaken themselves due to fraternal conflict. That alone may serve to minimize the chance of such a “Unified Islam” from ever coming to light. I hope.
I think UBL is dead, too. I’ve thought so ever since Gen. Mussareff said he thought so, probably 10 or 12 months ago.
I apologize for losing track of where I spotted the pointer to this article at Eject! Eject! Eject! but it is, IMO, the case I wish I could articulate for Bush and against Kerry for the ABBers I still wish I could salvage.
I have one thing I’d add to the case. Not only is Bush fighting a war that needs to be fought (and that John Kerry is to ignorantly stupid – Eject’s definition of the type of stupidity Kerry displays), but he is so far managing to fight a global conflict without destroying the world’s economic system (no small feat).
One small bone I would pick with the article is his description of liberals as wishing to be “nice” while conservatives understand that there are times we need to be “mean”. While this is true, there is a subtle difference between being perceived as “mean” and actually being mean. Any parent of a teenager who has fought the Bloody Battle of Curfew Pass understands that just because the perception Darling Teen has is that her parents are being “mean” does not mean they are, in fact, mean. A very inappropriate analogy, but I think it illustrates the point. Doing what one perceives as “nice” is not always the “nice” thing to do and, conversely, that which is perceived as “mean” is not always “mean”.
What caught my attention (in the article):
“But Hanning said all countries now have a stake in the country’s future because Islamic radicalism posed a global threat.”
Quick OT note, sorry, for LA-area readers: Invitation to a Rally
Terrye:
I think Bush will use the report on wmd to back up the notion that Saddam was not contained.
I think Kerry will use the report to call Bush a liar.
I think you should change your handle to “Cassandra”. Here’s the Fox News coverage:
“The Duelfer report shows that Saddam was systematically gaming the system,” Bush said outside the White House, before leaving for Wisconsin for a rally and then to St. Louis for the second presidential debate. Bush added that the deposed leader had the “intent of restarting his weapons program when the world looked away.”
Sen. John Kerry, who has been preparing for Friday’s debate in Colorado, almost immediately went on the offensive against Bush’s statements, saying Bush and Cheney “may well be the last two people on the planet who won’t face the truth about Iraq.”
Charlie:
And Kerry may be the last person on the planet that will not face the truth about the UN, that august body of mulitlateralists to whom we are to appeal to if we hope to pass the global test. I guess we could just take a cue from Saddam and buy them off.
Democrats were talking aoubt these weapons when Bush was still the Governor of Texas so maybe they ought to watch the rhetoric.
Can you imagine the reaction if Bush had come to office and announced that Saddam had learned his lesson, sanctions could be lifted and he had no weapons. Clinton was full of crap and the Iraqi Liberation Act calling for the ouster of Saddam was unfair and unilateral..
Wanna bet we heard of talk of oil deals and Halliburton and blood for oil?
Floor plans for US schools captured from Iraqi “insurgents”.
To figure out what’s up with UBL, take a look back a few decades to another church leader.
L. Ron Hubbard, the inventor of Dianetics and founder of the Church of Scientology, was mysteriously absence from public view for .. a long time .. in excessive of 5 years. Church officials either didn’t know or at least weren’t saying what was up. Finally, after years, they admitted he had died. I have no idea why they let this go on for so long.
UBL is another mysterious figure who seems missing. His absence is a boon for friend and foe alike. Al Qaeda can claim that UBL has not been captured by the “mighty Satan,” meanwhile the CIA and military have an elusive foe to chase. Now if he’s dead, and no one knows for sure, why should that change things ?
I am often reminded to be careful what you wish for. Iraq seemed a more peaceful country between the “end of major combat operations” and Sadaam’s capture. it was as if all Iraqis were waiting to see just how Sadaam who confound the US. When he was captured, there was no further need to sit about waiting. I suspect a similar change of events should UBL actually be captured, or killed before the cameras of the world media.
Thanks for that good news, Knucklehead.
But I’m sure the children of California, New Jersey, Oregon, and Michigan at least will be safe. After all, as Michael Moore tells us, those are Democratic states who didn’t vote for George Bush.
I agree with most here. UBL is no longer with us. The only scenario I can see where he would stay out of sight this long would be if he was waiting for a mega-attack before re-appearing. I find that inconsistent with the way such things work.
Michael B…nice analysis. You too Katherine! And though I agree in part and principle with Roger, i.e. your thesis is correct in its essentials, e.g. his egotism, OBL is dead. Killed with a bunker buster…to be exact, a 52 and a half foot rocket/bomb. Nearly three years ago.
I’ve been in Afghanistan a number of times since 9/11 and have pursued this question many times with the tribes, the Qwami Shura, NGO internationals, ISAAF, foreign journalists, jihadis, my associate, the German author of the best book on Bin Laden–the works. And posted on this since 2002. (Here, Daily Pundit and probably in my missives to Insta.) I also ‘know’ (i.e. saw on the street and lived in the same small neighborhood in UTown in Peshawar) as OBL in the 80s and know a bit about the man. I know his doctor during the 90s quite well, his family dentist (!) Zabir and can attest to the fact that those who knew him claim he’s long departed from this earth. With no remains available…so little of him to scrape up that none can confirm his departure. Alas. Those bombs were a bitch. But they saw him in the cave, then the cave blew up. And all there was left were little pebbles.
I was overwhelmed in Afghanistan this summer with other work (and problems…’friend’ Jack Idema was arrested) but I still had some time to meet with mullahs and tribal/political leaders, from Safi Nation to Zabul and Kandahar and the consensus remains OBL is dead. Even if he weren’t dead, well, he’d dead. As Roger noted, an arrogant ideologue like OBL would not remain silent…or let his visage be ignored by the likes of vidiots at Al Jazeera. If he weren’t dead, he’d be dead to the Afghans and Paks because he’s a coward afraid to show his face; thus violating Pushtunwali…the codes of behavior that govern the regions where he is supposedly hiding.
That being said, Al Q’aeda is still a problematic presence, especially in Pakistan (where Musharaf is waging a heroic struggle against his traitorous ISI/madrassas) and the the indigent provinces of the Gulf States. I do demur from conventional wisdom on the growth of Al Q’aeda and the myth of Bin Laden in the Arab world. I was cheered in the oil emirates (the UAE) this summer to find–compared to 2002 and 2003–that Al Q’aeda’s jihadist philosophy is losing steam and prestige. Basically, terrorism is bad for business and the Middle East is now an emerging financial power. It’s widely accepted in the Gulf that if OBL were alive, he would have provided visual proof by now…absent that, he’s no longer a factor, much less a hero. No pictures, no respect.
It was also quite clear in the UAE that the American effort in Iraq was gaining significant support…much to my surprise. Just a year ago, things were very different. Why Bush does not publicize or capitalize on these successes has always baffled me…from Afghanistan to the Gulf, pro-Americanism is ascendant. This is not, unfortunately, a media savvy administration. It’s clearly missing an opportunity to brag on its successes. I could understand its reluctance to whistle past the graveyard, but it’s missing an opportunity to whistle past the garden.
BTW, one amazingly courageous move was to hold the Afghan elections in October…just weeks before the US presidential referendum. Gutsy, crazy move–considering all the problems that wild and wooly nation’s elections might cause Bush. Believe me, it’s not a shoe-in for Karzai; this administration knows it and still scheduled Afghanistan’s election right before our own. That alone should make the most intransigent voter support Bush…just for his cojones.
It seems that once upon a time Kerry’s friends said that Usama wasn’t the issue and Bush was making too big a deal out of him with the Dead or Alive talk. Then we heard that invading Iraq would create a thousand Usamas, seeing as how he could be so easily replaced. Now the rhetoric of club Pelosi et al is that the President has failed because he let UBL slip away. Slip away to hell, perhaps. UBL might be decaying even as we write and Kerry & crew act as if they know what’s going on.
Each day the irresponsibility of this kind of rhetoric multiplies. Such faux certainty is so cheap now and so costly later. You can’t take back those kinds of words. In fact it’s all a word game to the Kerry folks, since he is not really ready for action.
I have been wondering for a while if Kerry, perhaps, doesn’t really want to win the election. He may not really want the job, the more he understands what is needed. He doesn’t have the stomach for it.
John:
Haven’t you heard? Iraq is a mess. Bush is a liar. The world hates us. At least that is what we hear so I think any effort of Bush’s to say otherwise would be seen as a lie or a delusion.
But I will vote for him. He has balls which is more than can be said the other guy.
David Warren’s elegantly-rendered perspective on this, “Geopolitics” is at davidwarrenonline.com. The essay finishes:
“…Americans remain under extraordinary international pressure to retreat; on the other, the appeal of the Islamist ideology is still growing, and finding its voice through such mass media as Arab satellite television.
If, for instance, a President Kerry were to take the Americans out of Iraq, mission unaccomplished as in Vietnam, we would see a storm-tide of Islamist triumphalism, and the belief would quickly spread through the Muslim world that an aggressive, Jihadist, politico-religious Islamism is the wave of the future.
The same, of course, would happen if a President Bush did that. But everything we know about the man suggests he wouldn’t.
One of my reasons to pray for his victory in the coming U.S. election is because he wouldn’t. I don’t think he fully grasps the dimensions of the conflict — nobody does. But he knows they are large, he knows the difference between advancing and retreating, and that’s really all he needs to know, for now. The rest we learn as we go along.”
Iraq is John Kerry’s McGuffin. What’s a McGuffin? Almost every English speaking person on earth that was born before people walked on the moon has either seen Alfred Hitchcock’s thriller Psycho or has heard about the Bates Motel and what happened there.
But does anybody remember that Psycho was a story of a stolen $40,000? The $40,000 robbery is the McGuffin. At the beginning of the movie the robbery seemed to be the story. Hitchcock used the McGuffin (the robbery) only to get Janet Leigh to the Bates Motel. After that it was all Hitchcock magic and the importance of the robbery disappeared from view.
Iraq is John Kerry’s McGuffin. It exists only to draw us into his story of American unilateralism, arrogance and selfishness. A story in which American boys die for a mistake and where war is never the answer. As the UN Oil for Food Scandal was breaking replete with the trail of billions of bribe money paid to Jackass’ buddies in France as quid pro quo for a Security Council veto, John Kerry was speaking about diplomacy as the only correct response to the maniacal Butcher of Baghdad.
Whether Kerry wins or loses, the mere fact that he’s still a viable candidate less than four weeks from November is proof enough that our liberty and our American Exceptionalism are at risk from within and without.
“Whether Kerry wins or loses, the mere fact that he’s still a viable candidate less than four weeks from November is proof enough that our liberty and our American Exceptionalism are at risk from within and without.”
Posted by: Peter Boston
That’s the nail on the head of what’s bothering me–bother in the sense that before this one, ya wins or ya loses. This one threatens to be pure loss either way…I mean, you saw in the debate, the man is not normal, he’s a black hole; he bled the president’s energy off him down into some dark well of negation–just as P.B.’s above quote holds he is doing to the USA (and hence to whole world). He is The Candyman, knowing that half the voters, give or take that percent or two, like candy too much, for whatever reason, for their (our) own good.
I think what happened to the presdient in the last debate is simple: Kerry was speaking nonsense in a rational way and Bush was just stymied by that. Bush calls lt like he sees it. Reality is a finite thing. It has boundaries and borders and exists. Kerry on the other hand is not confined to our world.
Bush is the parent you see every day. Telling you to do your homework, clean up your room, don’t talk to strangers.
Kerry is that weekend parent who takes you to King’s Island and tries to pass it off as what life is really like. When you hang with the right person. The one who really loves you.
but if he gets the job full time….
Jeez, you’re right, that’s it. Give it to hiim full-time, he’ll go flaccid, have to ‘think’, like Crazy Al spending December 2000 locked in his bedroom, emerging only to un-nerve the polity in front of the TV cameras. Yes, the GWoT would quickly be under the full control of “Sox” Berger and Richard the East Timorese Serbian Carter-boy Holbrooke.
The Afghan elections tomorrow (or is it already tomorrow there?) was indeed a gutsy move by Bush et al. It is hoped to be what mathmaticians call a “proof by construction”.
Anybody would agree with this statement: “Iraq is a far better prospect to become a liberal republic than Afghanistan”. So, if elections succeed in Afghanistan in the sense that they are judged as fair and broadly representative with not too much violent intimidation, then a fortiori Iraq has an excellent chance also.
If they fail, well, Iraq is a far better chance anyway.
Great upside for Bush, minor downside.
I believe Osama is dead also, and I feel the best evidence lies in the fact that there is no way he would have allowed the embrace of the martyr-less attacks we are seeing now.
Beginning with the Spanish train bombings, which were uncharacteristically remote detonations, and continuing with the cowardly snatch-and behead tactics in Iraq, what we are seeing is something he would not have allowed.
Not one missive from Osama failed to acknowledge the power inherent in suicide missions, he saw its supreme power, especially after 9-11. He was aware of his audience in this macabre play, and what they required to lift their hands in applause. The beheadings and remote detonations are indications of frustration on the part of our enemy, as they instill only anger, not fear, and Osama knew it.
fyi
from Yossef Bodansky’s Bin Laden: The Man Who Declared War on America
Apparently the Saudi regime felt the same way about him, but I can’t find the passage. He was a loyal subject who didn’t ask for fame or money for himself.
I don’t think Bin Laden can be understood as a narcissist, assuming Bodansky is right, and I have no reason to doubt him.
I’m not sure we have a psychological category for Bin Laden. We would see him as some kind of “religious fanatic,” but none of us knows what that is beyond the obvious.
I think he’s dead–I wouldn’t bet the ranch, but that’s my guess–because he really was willing to die for his cause.
I think he most likely did die for his cause in Tora Bora.
I also think his disappearance is important for us, because whatever the reality of his character, he was a genuine folk hero and leader of men. More than a quarter million tape cassettes of his sermons sold in Saudi Arabia in 1989, along with millions of bootleg copies.
There isn’t anyone else like him.
That’s a good thing.
OTOH, by my own logic Bin Laden could be alive and living amongst his beloved Afghan peasants . . .
Hey–do we have Bin Laden “in a box”??
Maybe someone should tell John Kerry!
He likes boxes!
OT
Just found this interesting factoid:
When it comes to politics, the use of the Internet is higher for Democrats (57%) than Republicans (47%) or Independents (55%).
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-07-2004/0002268398&EDATE=
Catherin:
Maybe that has soemthing to do with overall demographics.
John©,
An informative and intriguing post. Your Holmesian take on the likelihood of OBL’s demise is the most convincing case I’ve read on that matter specifically; rings true.
Maybe they know more than we do.
i like this