The war drums in the Middle East are beating louder after Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made a direct threat against the state of Israel earlier this week. He said on April 10 that Israel "must be punished " for attacking the Iranian embassy compound in Syria.
"When they attack the consulate, it is as if they have attacked our soil," Khamenei said in a speech marking the end of Ramadan. "The evil regime made a mistake and must be punished and it shall be."
Both the U.S. and Israel concluded after the embassy attack which killed several high-ranking Revolutionary Guard leaders that Iran would retaliate in some way.
But Khamenei's warning seemed to hint at a "tit for tat" attack on Israeli territory after Israel attacked Iran's sovereign territory in Syria.
The threat of an attack on Israeli soil initiated a crisis meeting that included Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, U.S. CENTCOM Commander, General Michael Erik Kurilla, and other security officials at the Hatzor Israeli Air Force base, where they discussed the possible attack.
"We discussed the close cooperation between the United States and Israel, between our defense establishments and our miliaries," Gallant said after the meeting. "Our enemies think that they can pull apart Israel and the United States, but the opposite is true, they are bringing us together and strengthening our ties. We stand shoulder to shoulder."
That the CENTCOM commander was present at the meeting shows that Israel is taking the threat of an attack on Israeli soil quite seriously.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the attack may occur on Friday or Saturday.
In recent hours, social-media accounts close to the Revolutionary Guard have posted videos showing simulated missile attacks on Israel’s Haifa airport and its nuclear facility in Dimona. An Iranian official has also previously said Iran would strike at Israel’s power and desalination plants if attacked.
A Revolutionary Guards advisor to Khamenei told the Journal that while several plans have been presented to the Supreme Leader, no decision has been made about a course of action.
The Iranians have been strangely forthcoming about their plans.
The scenarios involve attacks by Tehran’s proxies in Syria and Iraq, for which Iran delivered drones out of warehouses in recent days, according to advisers to the IRGC and the Syrian government.
Iran and its allies could also attack the Golan—a disputed territory annexed by Israel from Syria in 1981—or even Gaza, they said, to avoid an attack within Israel’s internationally recognized territory. Another option would be to strike at Israeli Embassies, notably in the Arab world, to show them that friendly ties with Tel Aviv could be costly, these people said.
Iran could still cross Israel up and attack another target inside Israel. But the ultimate question has to be "Why"? What would it gain by starting a war with Israel?
On Thursday, Annalena Baerbock and David Cameron, the foreign ministers of Germany and the U.K., called Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, asking that Iran please not attack Israel as it would start a war that Iran couldn't possibly win.
For Iran, it may not be a question of winning a war. Iran is a boiling cauldron of resentful minorities, oppressed women, and young people crying for more freedom. Every 18 months or so, there's an uprising. It could start anywhere for any reason.
Keeping the lid on domestic unrest is a priority for Khamenei. Perhaps Tehran thinks that a uniting expedient like a war with Israel could head off domestic trouble. It wouldn't be the first time in world history that a tyrant started a war to forestall a revolution at home.
But all this foreshadowing by the Revolutionary Guards and Syrian advisors — highly unusual in the relationship between Israel and Iran — probably indicates that Iran isn't going to escalate by attacking Israel directly. More likely one of its proxies will do its dirty work.
