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UA 93 or Oceanic 815

March 14th, 2014 - 3:46 pm

Erin Burnett at CNN posts the following graphic in her Twitter feed with the caption “U.S. Officials: #Flight370 apparently took one of two paths; likely crashed in the Indian ocean”.

Which Did It Go?

Which way did MH370 go?

Well if “they” were going to crash it in the ocean, why bother with the route?

The National Post says: “An investigation into the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines jetliner is focusing more on a suspicion of foul play — with either a suicidal pilot or hijacker at the controls — as evidence suggests it was purposely diverted off course and investigative scenarios grew to include the possibility the plane may have landed somewhere.”

A U.S. official said in Washington that investigators are examining the possibility of “human intervention” in the plane’s disappearance, adding it may have been “an act of piracy.”

The official, who wasn’t authorized to talk to the media and spoke on condition of anonymity, said it also was possible the plane may have landed somewhere….

Malaysia says it has asked neighbouring countries for their radar data, but has not confirmed receiving the information. Indonesian and Thai authorities said on Friday they had not received an official request for such data from Malaysia. …

They also gave new details on the direction in which the unidentified aircraft was heading – following aviation corridors identified on maps used by pilots as N571 and P628 – routes taken by commercial planes flying from Southeast Asia to the Middle East or Europe.

For an accurate depiction of these routes, check Skyvector.com

The southwest route is the “Lost” scenario. Those in control of the aircraft have taken it to who knows where and we may or may never see its remains again. The northwest route is the hijack route. Neither of these possibilities has either been precluded nor settled upon.

One question implied by the provision of MH370 pings is “who’s in charge?” Who is the controlling legal authority for the search operation if it can still be called that? Ostensibly it is Malaysia. Formally this is still search and rescue or perhaps a recovery operation. But it is looking more and more like a pursuit. The movement of naval units and the intelligence support suggested by recent developments suggests that some agency, as yet unnamed, has been tasked with this effort, whatever you want to call it.

A WSJ journalist’s interview with Charlie Rose suggests that “investigators” in Washington are interested.

As the focus shifts away from Malaysia the briefings issued by those country’s officials become less and less germane. The action is shifting to Washington and that’s a worrying sign in itself. One might guess that acoustic records, elint logs, sigint records and all that intelligence fusion business are in operation to find the plane. Because the plane in itself is no longer as important as what it might represent.

Update: Readers will know by now that the Malaysian Prime Minister has basically strongly implied that the MH370 incident is a crime, either in progress or under investigation, rather than a mechanical failure. The Prime Minister told a press conference the airplane may have been hijacked by persons unknown.

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak faced the media Saturday to say authorities are sure enough about the track of their search for Flight MH370 to pull resources away from the South China Sea.

The Malaysia Airlines flight, which disappeared a week ago, is now being looked for in two corridors: the northern corridor runs from the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan border to northern Thailand, while the southern corridor passes over Indonesia and heads into the Indian Ocean.

And for those who think it still might have been slow depressurization here is … Steve Canyon.


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Top Rated Comments   
Don't discount the possibility that some agency of the US government knows quite precisely, but we have to "find" the plane by ordinary means to not reveal too much about our capabilities. If it really was lost with all souls on board, there's no real rush, is there?
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
OT but for a reason.
Today was the opening night receptions for Asia Week NY. I visited over 20 galleries. An ocean of. wine was declined and the art and people were great. What is the point? While facing financial disaster and armageddon at the hands of barbarians, it is important to remember that there is better out there. We must guard against being bitter and angry. We need happy warriors. BTW, I just had a great BLT at a hipster Bier and Cheese place in Astoria. Now I could fight commies and smile.

Imagine how the Malaysians and others feel. The Americans sneer at their efforts and say, "Stand aside the Pros from Dover will take over." A door opens and Kerry Biden and Obama are there.

Someone please offer a photo of Moe Larry and Curly.
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment

As regards MH370, if someone was going to steal this aircraft, they had it down…

The interesting thing about MH370 (to me) is that it occurred at hand-off.

Malay was telling them: “Contact Ho Chi Mihn Center at 129.6, or whatever.
Mh370 would repeat 129.6. Thank you and goodnight.

That would be the last contact with Malaysia, and they would expect the transponder to disappear, as Ho Chi Mihn would give them a new “squawk” .
They did NOT contact Ho Chi Mihn.

At this point, there is a large span of time where they do NOT need to be talking to anyone. Mayay-Center has released them to Ho Chi Mihn, whom they have not contacted

They turned the transponders off.

They disengaged the auto-pilot and went their own way.

The ACARS says the engines ran for another 4 hours. Where did they fly to, and what is the fate of the PAX?

When, IF, this is ever explained, it will be a GOOD story.

Hmmm,
I was looking for long airstrips in the direction MH370 was headed and I found a 9,000′ runway on Nicobar Island.

http://www.ourairports.com/airports/VOCX/#lat=9.177108257944731,lon=92.87280082597864,zoom=12,type=Satellite,airport=VOCX

I figured they would put-down there, load their cargo, dump the bodies, refuel and do whatever it is.

I think that ‘whatever it is’ went-off prematurely.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/14/world/asia/andaman-nicobar-earthquake/

Pretty damned strange…
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
All Comments   (145)
All Comments   (145)
Sort: Newest Oldest Top Rated
The 777 turned off it's transponders and flew towards Vietnam.
Defense RADARs paint the unknown target coming in and vector fighters up who collide with the plane or shoot it down.
Consternation ensues when Vietnamese realize they have just shot down a civilian Malaysian airliner with a great many Chinese on board.
Not wishing to enrage the Chinese they shut up and sit down hoping no one notices they did the deed.
It could be India or any other nation if they could hide the event and get away with it they might just try.
Then again it could be Space Alien's coming in for some payback for ID4's movie.
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
Reviewing this article more critically::

So, the pilot of MH370 had just spent the day at the trial of Anwar Ibrahim? That's an interesting way to prepare for a cross oceanic flight. Well rested, are we?

However, to be objective, the article provides little justification for the editorial assertion that:

"The Mail on Sunday has learned that Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah was an ‘obsessive’ supporter of Malaysia’s opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim."

Who was the source of that information?

"Police sources have confirmed that Shah was a vocal political activist, and fear that the court decision left him profoundly upset".

So, politicians disguised as police authorities are impugning the pilot's integrity, again, without offering evidence. I'm skeptical.
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
It's almost as if, in this world today, one cannot look at anything at face value. If Islam or Muslims are involved in any facet of an event, one needs to look for duplicity, for hidden "root causes".

A plane goes missing, or a plane crashes, or a plane is hijacked, and the world later learns a Muslim was on board under false pretenses, or that the crew was Muslim, one immediately thinks "...but of course.." as the light bulb goes on in the minds eye.

Islam is the religion of peace? That lie is proven daily by Islam's more sincere adherents, all of the world. If I didn't already know the joy, peace, and salvation through faith in the true God, I'd probably become a militant atheist as the dishonorable Mikey Winstein, based only on the legacy of Islam.

One way or another, I am certain that MH370 was lost to some element of militant Islam. The irony of Iran's leaders blaming the USA for the loss of MH370 is rich indeed.
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
By their actions—or by chance—Mohammedans (and Putins) are teaching us to think as they do.

A hefty dose of reality or a descent into madness?
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
Malaysia reported that there was satellite communication with the plane for 7 1/2 hours after they lost direct contact. That would be the point where they made a 90 degree turn towards the Indian Ocean. It is interesting that the two Iranians on board with the stolen passports are being ignored in this whole story. Not only did they have stolen passports, but the Financial Times reported that their tickets were bought by someone else from Iran. If you look at where direct contact was lost and add 7 1/2 hours flying time, will you reach Iran? Yes.

There can be no doubt the plane was hijacked, but there were no demands made by the hijackers. It flew for over 7 hours from that point, so that means that they were heading somewhere. Wherever they were headed had to have been worked out in advance. Since there has been no word of any landing, if it did land rather than crash in the ocean, it is being hidden by a country. There is only one country who would be up to that. No proof yet, of course, but there are interesting pieces to this puzzle.
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
Well I am a little surprised that no one else has yet mentioned the possibility that occurred to me almost immediately, a week ago: This plane was hijacked to Shangri-La and the Valley of the Blue Moon. The more time passes, the more likely it seems. Some one of these days one of the passengers will show up at a Chinese hinterland hospital in the company of a Chinese lady who is most old--most old of anyone the receiving doctor has ever seen.
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
Another possibility is that the plane flew into to the Twilight Zone-- as in "Nightmare at 20,000 Feet," in which a man recovering from a nervous breakdown sees a gremlin on the wing of his airplane tampering with the wing. "Bob tries to alert his wife and the flight crew to the gremlin's presence, but every time someone else looks out of the window, the gremlin leaps out of view, so nobody believes Bob's seemingly outlandish claim; his credibility is further marred because this is his first flight since his nervous breakdown six months earlier, which also occurred on a plane. Bob realizes that his wife is starting to think he needs to go back to the sanitarium, but his bigger concern is that, if nothing is done about the gremlin, it will damage the plane and cause it to crash; in fact, the gremlin has already started to tinker with the wiring under one of the engine cowlings. After repeated attempts to warn the crew, Bob grows desperate, steals a sleeping police officer's revolver, and opens the window marked "Auxiliary Exit" to shoot the gremlin, succeeding despite being nearly blown out of the plane himself. Once the plane has landed, everyone believes that he has gone insane. As Bob is whisked away in a straitjacket, he tells his wife that he is alone in his assurance of what happened up there. Rod Serling informs the viewers that Bob's conviction won't be long and the final shot reveals why: the gremlin has left evidence of Bob's story, in the form of the damaged wing." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nightmare_at_20,000_Feet

Video of the episode at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sinwH3LjQAI
"Bob," incidentally, is played by a then-unknown Canadian actor named William Shatner.
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
Bugs Bunny vs. Gremlin in Falling Hare

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwq6mp8zKKg

Spoiler alert - running out of gas
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
No, the better answer is that space aliens took it. They wanted a swoopy-looking hood ornament for their starship.
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
It has begun. Remember where you were when the war began. How Sat, Mar 15, 2014 the Ukrainians have not set the gas oil and water systems for destruction?
http://washingtontimes.com/news/2014/mar/15/ukraine-russian-forces-backed-helicopter-gunships-/
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
More information about the pending Russian invasion:

http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-braces-crimea-breakaway-vote-043501185.html;_ylt=AqJuvzQ2ILRkB2rlroCXJqrQtDMD;_ylu=X3oDMTBsaGVqY3E0BGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHNlYwNzcg--

I hope the Ukrainians put up a decent fight and not dishonor themselves.

The Ukraine can not win against Russia in an all-out war but they could bloody the Russians enough that part of the Ukraine survives as an independent state.
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
Have Polish, Czech, and Lithuanian un-uniformed volunteers begun arriving in Ukraine? If not, Kiev is doomed.
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
The Russians will keep probing until there's a Ukrainian reaction. It's conceivable but unlikely that the Russians will do piecemeal military advance until the entire Ukraine is conquered (the Russians march into Kiev unopposed). That could happen if most of the Ukrainian military command was compromised by a Russian 5th column (during the Cold War, Western Germany was set up to collapse but it never happened due to the Soviet Union's own collapse). More likely, the Ukrainians are waiting where the local terrain offers them the best tactical advantage. A tough problem for the local Ukrainian commander is whether to make his stand in territory dominated by pro-Russian residents. By doing so he loses the home field advantage but the collateral damage is more acceptable.

A smart commander would be laying mine fields, setting up IEDs, blowing up bridges and tunnels.
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
Interesting the number of people who think that the USA, China or who ever know something they are hiding for the need to keep their capabilities secret.

I am under the impression that, by and large, the point about capabilities in this era is to have them known.

If some one tests your capabilitiy, eg, flies an aircraft within range of your radar, and you do nothing then he will go on doing it and you don't know whether it is a test or a live invasion.

If he tests you and you immediately show that you know he is there he need not do it again (though typically he goes on testing you!) unless he is risking an invasion.

Yes, he will start inventing counter measures, but then you are busy creating counter/counter etc. That, of course, is the nature of the business.

I thought that was the lesson of MAD and the cold war.Am I just too simple?
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
Robert Mark of jetwhine.com was just interviewed on FoxNews. I don't know anything about him, just that Fox had him on as an expert. By and large he was behind the burn line already established here, but he did say something hard --that the trip to 45K altitude is only an assertion, that no one knows how that knowledge came to be. And then he was off on something else. There's prob a vid on his site.
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
Everyone is hung up on runway length. Evergreen Intl Airlines landed two 747's at McMinnville Municipal Airport which has a runway length of 5,420. Nice landings by chief pilot; both at full stop by 3000 feet and probably could have done it in 2,800. Both planes destined for museum (runway too short for safe takeoff). Both planes landing with minimum fuel/zero payload. That being said, the 777 officially needs 2400m of runway at 20 degrees C. That can be cut down by reducing weight (stripping seats, seat track, minimum fuel, maybe even JATO bottles). I'm thinking that a 5500 foot runway would be adequate for landing/takeoff under one-off ciircumstances as in effect. The-airport-guide.com provides a pretty comprehensive listing of runways worldwide. And of course there is always airports-freeman.com that covers abandoned runways. Remember - this only has to land once and maybe takeoff once. It doesn't require an immaculate modern facility. Just my two cents based on 25 years of kicking cargo 747's around the odd corners of the world.
24 weeks ago
24 weeks ago Link To Comment
Abbie Normal: "this was a test run to see if they could hijack a modern airliner."

Does not sound likely behavior from terrorists. General rule in matters like these is -- One Free Shot, whether that shot is bombing Pearl Harbor or flying planes into the World Trade Center. Second shot is not so easy. Consequently, terrorists would be unlikely to throw away an asset once they had hijacked it. Their world is a target-rich environment.

Best options discussed in this thread:

1. MP's suggestion of an unlikely (but possible) series of events stemming from the earlier wing tip repair, which just happened to go south at a specific time which feeds conspiracy theories.

2. Suggestion that someone is trying to get other parties to tip their hand on their monitoring capabilities. But who? China trying to get the US to come clean, or the US trying to learn what China can observe? Notice the utter silence from Russia and the EU's pet European Space Agency -- what does that mean?
24 weeks ago
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24 weeks ago
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