Borrowed Time
With the sovereign debt crisis now spreading to Italy, European leaders are looking for ways to insure the continent’s third largest economy against default and extend similar protection to banks, which are sure to be pulled down if one or several European countries fail to service their deut obligations. A Council of Foreign Relations article itemizes the growing dangers:
The sovereign debt crisis has begun to infect Italy, the eurozone’s third largest economy. And as the contagion spreads from Greece to the core of the single currency union, it has endangered many French banks that hold large quantities of Italian and Greek government bonds. This has put other exposed continental banks–and U.S. financial institutions– at risk, feeding investor unease throughout global markets.
But the Daily Telegraph reports little confidence in the proposed solutions because they lack the one thing necessary to make any solution work: money. The only conceivable source of additional money, Germany, has failed to provide any guarantee that it will ante up the necessary sums.
That sent Angela Merkel to the German parliament in order to get the authorization to write a bigger check. The odds are that she will get it.
Robert Preston of the BBC says that given the EU’s depleted bailout kitty, there will be barely enough money to keep the wastrels afloat for more than year. Eventually, the European Central Bank will have to print money to keep the EU going.
This is what France – backed by the UK – wanted. And it would have been the “comprehensive and ambitious response” promised by Mr Sarkozy and Mrs Merkel.
The point is that there is no limit to what the ECB can lend, because (to state the bloomin’ obvious) it can create money at will. Deploying the ECB in this way would have been the big bazooka that the British prime minister has been requesting.
But for German politicians, sanctioning the ECB to lend directly to governments would have been the slippery slope to debasement of the euro (there’s hyperinflationary history haunting them here).
This leaves Germany with the choice of either letting the ECB print money or kicking in more money to square the accounts. But neither solution is likely to last. A number of EU member countries are mired in systemic deficits, spending more than they are earning. Since they can’t stop spending, sooner or later the debt crisis will re-emerge. That much is clear. But tomorrow is another day and maybe something — like a diamond asteroid hitting the earth — may turn up.
Nigel Farage of the UK Independence Party appears to believe that Eurocrats have no other strategy but to play for time and amass as much power in Brussels as possible in the process. On the face of it such a strategy would be completely insane. Maybe it is, and the only thing that makes observers believe there is a method to madness is the belief that no one could be that crazy
Update:
David Smick at the Weekly Standard also noticed the lemming-like response of political ‘leaders’ towards the debt crisis. He characterizes this zombie-like marching toward the cliff as “learned helplessness”. It is a kind of fatalistic shell shock. Smick writes, “the financial news is so relentlessly terrible that people have become numb to it and assume nothing can be done to regain control over our fate.”
Its psychological driver is the sudden feeling of helplessness brought about by the collapse in faith in all the nostrums in which their confidence was formerly reposed. “A year ago, senior European officials never dreamed they’d be in their current mess. Greece represents only 3 percent of the Eurozone economy. Bailout tricks and clever central bank interventions were supposed to calm nervous markets. That happened, but didn’t last. A powerful global financial market brought officials to their knees.”
Even though the Eurocrats are talking about the “big bazooka” there are probably few of them who actually believe it can actually stop the monster from advancing on them. They have been cut down to size by reality and yet must play the part of confident sovereigns simply because yielding to their instincts now would manifest what they really feel — a rising sense of panic. They’ve woken up only to realize, looking at the mirror, that they are frauds and have always been frauds.
Maybe Smick is right, but then if he is the global elites are in a world of pain. His article is subtitled “the global debt apocalypse approaches” and that probably says it all. He believes excess debt is suffocating the world economy. Since all the solutions proffered by “world leaders” feature increasing the debt load then the responses to the crisis are essentially prescriptions for suicide. The Europeans are trying to brazen it out, but the game is up and they have only themselves to blame.
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Since we have broken the rule about electing foreigners President why don’t we take a stab at getting Nigel the job? He seems to have a mush better grasp on things that the current Resident, I would bet that he would do just fine.
A wooden horse before the gates
The Greeks are bearing gifts
From pensioners and young ingrates
Who work four hour shifts
And take two hours out for lunch
And call it a good day
Then off they go, the whole darn bunch
To sit in some café
Demanding that the Germans come
Up with the money fast
And not just some small piddling sum
Enough that it will last
Until the next debt crisis looms
When Greeks will once again
Insist that talk of fiscal dooms
Is far beyond their ken
And so once more the wooden horse
With Euros thus gets filled
And who is stuck, why us of course
When Uncle Sam gets billed
Since the Euro is doomed to failure, which will lead to (more) civil unrest, and undoubtedly the massacre of civilians, the course is clear: An immediate Tomahawk strike on the command and control centers of the ECB, followed by airstrikes on armored cars carrying Euro notes, followed by Predator and Reaper missions to finish off the last of the Euro hardliners.
I just saw on Yahoo.de that the overseer of the rescue fund will be travelling to China Friday to talk about obtaining financial support. Apparently China has already indicated it is willing to help. According to the report, the EU may seek additional help in other countries like Brazil.
Y’know, some large part of the US population carries huge balances on their credit cards, generates immense profits for the banks, even though there are also huge losses in the game. Still, the banks play the role of referee and don’t let individuals run up endless debt.
Translated to sovereign players with trillion dollar chips, how does this work?
Will US or European voters turn off sovereign spending when they are no wiser about their own personal spending? Do European voters as such even have a say, or is it the even more spendthrift EU elites?
I suppose we will struggle through rather than collapse into a steaming heap, but the struggle is going to be ugly enough. Historically I think this degree of change (after this degree of foolishness) requires a major war or depression, to clear out. And we still don’t know where we’re going, in a globlized, automated world with more people than work, even in the west, even in China. It’s very exciting, but that doesn’t mean it’s safe to watch, much less participate in.
This is the best writer on the web today. What an independent thinker! You don’t lean to the “right” you lean towards intuition and common sense. Stay on that path-yes, really you do deserve 5 bucks from all of us, you dont have a box office or major advertising stream to corporate your thoughts.
Josh@5: “And we still don’t know where we’re going, in a globlized, automated world with more people than work, even in the west, even in China. It’s very exciting, but that doesn’t mean it’s safe to watch, much less participate in.”
I’ve actually been noodling this issue of “more people than work” for maybe a decade and a half, ever since it became clear to me that such a world WOULD eventually materialize. Isaac Asimov started me thinking about it in his robot books. I don’t remember which book it was, but there was an extensive description of huge machinery that endlessly knocked down buildings and built new ones, robots that basically took care of people and had no purpose other than to provide for the needs of humans, and so forth. There was no need for people to work unless they wanted to because pretty much EVERYTHING had been automated.
We’re closer to that world by a long shot than we were 50 years ago…but we’re certainly not there yet. I think some of the upheaval we are seeing/dreading has to do with the birthing of that world, though.
Nigel Farage and Dan Hannan could run circles around every politician currently on the national stage in America, with the possible exception of Newt Gingrich. In their time Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson had that spark.
It is to much to hope that those who submitted to the power of Europe at its peak will resist the temptation to humiliate it now. Brazil and China will accept the surrender of Europe and lead her out on a chain. The Islamists for years have been using the wealth the West transferred to them to advance the decay and subjugation of Europe. The only thing that can save Europe would be a global collapse so fast that it destroys the pretensions of China and the Arabs, who really face a bleak economic future themselves. Brazil and Argentina do have great potential. That has been true for over a hundred years and once they get past their legacy of corruption and statism they may rise to share the next century with America.
Ag Plumber: You hit the nail on the head. In a world where no one needs to work, who decides how the wealth is distributed?
I have long wondered how it is that Nigel has avoided having an “accident”. That room full of grumpy old power-brokers (who have no regard for democracy or freedom) would certainly be thrilled if he got hit by an errant bus or fell from a thirty-story balcony. I hope his Guardian Angel has help close by. He seems to be the “Anti-Chamberlin” a Brit that sees the threat and isn’t afraid of literally standing up and pounding the table to make his point.
Perhaps he has a touch of Churhill’s blood-line in him.
Could you imagine him taking on the TOTUS in a debate? The carnage would be magnificent.
7. Agoraphobic Plumber
My first thoughts of a world made perfect by machines was “The Jetsons” cartoon of my childhood, Mr. Jetson would complain from time to time of having to work four hours a week! I dreamed of living in a floating city and having a bed that folded itself up when not in use (I hated making up my bad as a child).
BTW I am still waiting for the car that flies and folds up into a briefcase!
cr @ 9: In a world where no one needs to work, who decides how the wealth is distributed?
Bernanke? More broadly, the government?
But that didn’t work in a world where people *did* need to work.
Power corrupts, and there seems no end to what people will steal, beyond all rational reason. I give you: Mohamar Ghaddafi.
I’m sure that most BC readers remember about the “Dark” factories in Japan. One in particular comes to mind. It was a factory that used industrial robots to manufacture industrial robots. It didn’t have much in the way of lighting because there were no people making anything. Once a month people would come in turn on the lights, replenish stock, load product, and take care of maintenance issues. A bunch of those factories are shut down now. Can’t sell the product. The product is artificially overpriced in my opinion. One problem with automation is that it is expensive and tends to be used for large batch products. Progress is being made in doing medium and small batch but, tax policies, regulations, and etc., are putting spokes into the process. At the same time government policies are killing craftsmen who make one offs and niche products.
“The problem with intellectuals is that assume all trends are linear.”
Josh @ 5 said:
“… some large part of the US population carries huge balances on their credit cards, generates immense profits for the banks, even though there are also huge losses in the game. Still, the banks play the role of referee and don’t let individuals run up endless debt.”
The banks are acting like parasites with the credit cards. AMEX charges 10.24% for purchases and 25.24% for cash advances. Given that the prime interest rate is zero, this is flagrant usury. I remember when the official inflation rate was over 10% and the banks convinced the state governments to repeal the usury laws. Then either the inflation rate went down or (more likely) the governments began lying about the true inflation rate. However the usury laws were not reinstated and the banks continued to steal from the general public. Fortunately I’m not part of this general public because for decades I’ve always paid my credit cards on time. In fact, I “make money” from the thieving banks because my credit card (US Bank) has a kick-back scheme where I get back 1% of everything that I spend. I write “make money” in quotes because I know the thieving banks charge the shop keeper something like 1%-2% on every transaction so actually I’m breaking even. The fact that the banks engage in open usury through credit cards is clear evidence of “regulatory capture” by the finance industry. It amazes me that the public tolerates such blatant theft.
Wretchard said:
“This leaves Germany with the choice of either letting the ECB print money or kicking in more money to square the accounts. But neither solution is likely to last.”
Josh also said:
“I suppose we will struggle through rather than collapse into a steaming heap, but the struggle is going to be ugly enough.”
I see three possible outcomes for the world economic crisis:
1) Through massive money printing, shameless market manipulation and mindless Goebbels’ style MSM propaganda, the central banks will achieve a miracle and the world economy will recover.
2) The system will continue to sputter along until a “black swan” incident occurs and then the whole rotten edifice will collapse.
3) The criminals running our financial and political systems will continue to prop it up with money printing, manipulation and deception. Eventually the world currencies will have no real value, the stock market valuations will have no real meaning, all government statistics will be fraudulent. The system will continue to tick along with most of the population unemployed, living in foreclosed-on homes and eating food bought with food stamps. I call this the “ring wraith” scenario. [Some background: Tolkien ring wraiths started out as powerful kings, who were skilled warriors in athletic bodies. Most of these kings were originally evil but a few of them began as virtuous rulers. Then Sauron as Annatar, the "Lord of Gifts" gave these kings magic rings. The rings provided the kings with enormous power and apparent immortality. However while doing this, the rings slowly ate away the king's physical essence and free will. Ultimately the kings became disembodied spirits who were slaves to Sauron].
Of the three outcomes, the “ship has sailed” for option 1). Maybe in the late 1970s, it might have been possible to avoid the current situation if the developed world had shifted away from petroleum to nuclear/coal, shunned socialism in its various forms and constituted world trade with corrections for environmental neglect and the use of industrialized slave labor. However crime and stupidity trumped foresight and all of that is now water under the bridge.
Option 2) is the most likely but assumes that the black swan is so swift and terrible that even though willing to print infinite money, the central banks can not mitigate the black swan’s effect.
Option 3) is the most scary one. Under an honest system, we would clear the system by defaulting on bad debt and forcing insolvent businesses into a bankruptcy process. There would be massive pain but at least the system could restart itself. However doing that maybe politically unacceptable for a general public corrupted by years of socialism. Also, The-Powers-That-Be maybe too dishonest to allow the system to go through orderly reset. Therefore we are left with the option of becoming ring wraiths, which leads to the next comment response….
Agoraphobic Plumber @ 7 said:
“I’ve actually been noodling this issue of “more people than work” for maybe a decade and a half, ever since it became clear to me that such a world WOULD eventually materialize. Isaac Asimov started me thinking about it in his robot books. … There was no need for people to work unless they wanted to because pretty much EVERYTHING had been automated.”
Actually a better science fiction reference would be Kurt Vonnegut’s “Player Piano”.
I have mixed feelings about Kurt Vonnegut. I find him to be too pessimistic. Also Vonnegut was an obvious self absorbed moonbat. However Vonnegut wrote brilliantly and was a skilled satirist.
It worries me that there maybe too many people chasing after too few nonrenewable natural resources. I firmly believe we’re sleep walking towards a cliff.
“The only conceivable source of additional money, Germany, has failed to provide any guarantee that it will ante up the necessary sums.”
Two questions:
1. Is the IMF, i.e., the U.S. taxpayer, not a conceivable source of additional money?
2. What role does the House of Representatives have in determining the U.S. contribution to IMF funding? (I don’t recall ever seeing a discussion of this in budget negotiations)
Anyone visited small towns in rural France or Germany? Every back yard has a garden plot, chickens and maybe a milk cow. Cities are the death of civilization. Even the larger cities, though, have the same characteristics.
Maybe we need to do some soul searching. How much is enough.
2. What role does the House of Representatives have in determining the U.S. contribution to IMF funding? (I don’t recall ever seeing a discussion of this in budget negotiations)
A subject I’ve been bringing up lately in different scenarios. Apparently governing by the Constitution is considered as quaint as living by the Bible.
e @ 13: It worries me that there maybe too many people chasing after too few nonrenewable natural resources. I firmly believe we’re sleep walking towards a cliff.
Fracking has pushed off any day of reckoning there by a century, plenty of time to get thorium working, which should give us two or three more centuries to get space-based solar working long-term. And maybe we’ll get lucky and figure out how to do fusion after all, though I’m getting pessimistic about that. MHD maybe, which would also lead to fusion space propulsion. Or, maybe not.
We’re just passing 7b world population, and our food reserve is probably no worse today than over the past century, and world carrying capacity is probably 10b or more without major strain.
So these little financial issues are all of our own creation, not that we aren’t capable of visiting disasters on ourself that nature never dreamed of.
This is not new. Those old geezers who steal ever more power have been here since some humans learned how to get more food than they needed to survive. The Nigel Farage’s and Dan Hannan’s have been in residence for the same time period. Through most of history, the old geezers have been on top. Occasionally, the Farage’s and Hannan’s have overcome Geezer Power. It happened once upon a time in America.
Geezer Power used to be compartmentalized – in fiefdoms, Principalities, tribal areas, ethnic regions, economic regions and in Nations. Consequently Geezer Power in one area was not united or correlated with Geezer Power in other areas.
The new part is that today, Geezer Power has united over the continent of Europe. Now it’s United Geezer Power. The only way these guys will go is by pulling the whole house down around themselves and the people of Europe. They will do that because the power they hold is their very life force. If they relinquish power now their life force is extinguished now. If they pull the house down their life force flickers on for a few moments longer.
Josh@5: And we still don’t know where we’re going, in a globlized, automated world with more people than work, even in the west, even in China.
The energy industry will generate market growth and jobs (including prudent environmental controls and renewables, both of which employ people, not robots.)
That goes without saying. Right now it’s a matter of how the competing energy technologies shake out, which looks like it’s going to be a more complicated (diverse and integrated) resolution, unlike the ‘one size fits all’ first generation market of cheap fossil fuels we are now leaving.
However, there will come a point, absent space exploration, when growth markets will have to venture into non-traditional areas – such as those that blur the distinctions between private enterprise and The Commons/General Welfare, iow, more GSE-”like” operations, along the lines of proposals being presented under the emerging concept of Creative Capitalism (referring to the Gates initiative, not the rock band from Baltimore – I think there is an obligatory rock bank under every google search.)
I’ll just leave it there. Not a well received concept, but at some point imbalances will begin to bend the system. The question of what drives unlimited economic growth is a conversation surely had many times in college keggers and corporate boardrooms and conventions of futurists. But it’s a practical question. Why Wall St thought it would go on forever I will never understand so for the time I am going with stupid, venal and corrupt. (Over-leveraging commercial deposits in a mortgage environment being taken to its knees with fraud and corruption should have been enough to put somebody away for a long time. If the ratings agencies knew (“house of cards dude”) then the investment firms knew – and the Fed knew. The studiously focused intent and the cavalier ‘above-it-all’ arrogance still takes my breath away.)
There’s no way out of the current economic debt crisis (USA but more so in EU) without some combination of debt forgiveness (public and private) and economic growth from technological advancement. Concerns over Moral Hazard will be suspended.
They are going to wind up printing money. It’s the inevitable outcome that nobody wants to admit to.
Josh @ 17 said:
“Fracking has pushed off any day of reckoning there by a century, plenty of time to get thorium working, which should give us two or three more centuries to get space-based solar working long-term.”
We’ve had this discussion enough times before so I’ll keep it short for the newbies who are lurking Belmont Club.
There is still more energy in the ground than has ever been consumed. However most of that energy will remain unexploited after our civilization has ground to a halt due to Peak Oil. The problem boils down to depletion of Cheap Energy which is defined by Energy return on investment (EROI). Here in California, our manufacturing economy hit its peak when light sweet crude oil lay just below the surface in vast petroleum fields near Bakersfield. Back then, all one had to do was poke a hole in the ground and high grade crude oil would bubble up under its own pressure. Compare this with our current situation where our energy supply is partially based upon the Athabasca oil sands in Alberta. To acquire energy, tons of sand needs to be dug up, the tar washed out with hot water and then the huge quantity of tailings returned to the mine site. The tar then needs to be cracked and refined into a usable product and shipped thousands of miles to consumers. Compared to the 1950s, the EROI for current day petroleum is awful and it will only get worse. People have known about fracking for decades. It was proposed back in the 1960s to use nuclear explosives for natural gas fracking. Why are we fracking now but didn’t back in the 1960s? Answer: Energy is damned expensive now and wasn’t back in the 1960s when there were still oil wells near Bakersfield. Energy is the foundation of the economic pyramid. Much of our current economic problems come from stupidity and criminality. However the triggering event was Peak Oil.
[Comment #2 of 4]
“Brazil and Argentina do have great potential. That has been true for over a hundred years and once they get past their legacy of corruption and statism they may rise to share the next century with America.”
Brazil perhaps, but doubt Argentina unless the country has an epiphany and stops electing populist/statist governments that have led it into a hundred year economic death spiral
Don’t cry for me America:
http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2009/11/dont-cry-for-me-america.html
Doesn’t look like this is going to change anytime soon seeing how newly re-elected President Kirchner has ordered the Argentinean oil, gas and mining companies to repatriate all future export revenue in an attempt to stop the capital flight out of the country. And this is after she has nationalized the pension fund industry and placed limits on purchases of farmland by foreigners. Since the first of the year direct foreign investment in Argentina has fallen 30%. Quite sure that this latest move will only increase the decline of investment and accelerate the capital flight out of the country.
Steve@20: They are going to wind up printing money.
Of course, that is and will continue to be part of the global institutional response. Sloppiness on my part. The debt forgiveness is still being ignored/debated/negotiated and the tech is under development. Many claim to know what’s coming. They all seem to point firmly – in different directions. We’ll see.
Time to buy gold/silver again before the printing presses go into over drive. These economies (Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal) have a failed Socialist business model that can never afford the overly generous welfare/retirment benefits they have become accustomed to. Add the massive demographics crunch and it’s ‘Game Over.’ The question is how long will the Germans want to keep these brain dead states alive. They should pull out of the Euro before they’re pulled under as well. I give it 1-2 years.
7. Agoraphobic Plumber
Josh@5: “And we still don’t know where we’re going, in a globlized, automated world with more people than work, even in the west, even in China. It’s very exciting, but that doesn’t mean it’s safe to watch, much less participate in.”
There was no need for people to work unless they wanted to because pretty much EVERYTHING had been automated.
We’re closer to that world by a long shot than we were 50 years ago…but we’re certainly not there yet. I think some of the upheaval we are seeing/dreading has to do with the birthing of that world, though.
…………..
We’re in an inbetween time.
The scale of the inbetween is just stupendous.
One thing I’ve always advocated on this board is that the road to the deserts of the moon and mars goes through the deserts of the earth. Instead of the 100-1000 technologies that have to be invented and refined to green wastes of the moon and mars-only two technologies have to be refined (better faster cheaper smarter) to green the deserts of the earth: pipelines and membranes.
That’s it. All you have to do is collapse the cost of pipelines and membranes and suddenly the habitable size of the earth doubles. And during the decades of expansion into the deserts of the earth–people will gain the the time and money and expertise to green the deserts of the moon and Mars.
Meatloaf had it right we’re– All Reved up With no Place to go
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=241mnuTfRe4
Not yet.
You know, I really hate to buy into a bubble. I’ve done that inadvertently at times (e.g. late 1990′s, I bought into tech growth funds thinking “Microsoft” and “CISCO”, only to realize later that all that investment capital was being poured into worthless web companies, where were the “Hot ticket” at the time).
However, I really need to buy gold now, at any price. I need to put my small retirement funds all into gold, set aside perhaps 25% of my monthly income in gold – I need to go all in for gold and other precious metals.
That is because the biggest bubble out there today is government printed money. Basically the entire world is broke, and the only thing tying the financial markets together is tons of paper debt which can never, ever, be honored.
The only “up” side I see for the USA is the potential we have for energy independence. Just like it’s always been, natural resources and people are the core wealth drivers, and the USA still has both.
But this economy is going to crash, and crash hard. If Obama and the Fed’s economic malfeasance doesn’t do it, then US ties to the Euro certainly will.
Someone will win. Eventually, the best bet is still on the USA. However, a lot of people in the US could be starving before this is over. And if the USA goes hungry, the world will see cataclysmic human disaster.
Gold (and other precious metals) and ammo – that’s what I need, and a whole lot of it. I’m a rational man, and what I see happening in Washington, NYC, and Europe cannot possibly continue.
O.S.
#7 Agoraphobic Plumber
The idea of what would happen to a world where there was no need of the majority of people to work is the basis of Karl Marx’s Das Kapital. As automation became more and more efficient the number of people it took to produce the basic necessities of life would fall beneath the number of people who were needed to produce them, and when the number of the unneeded workforce grew to a sufficient number all hell would break loose. It makes total sense.
The problem with his theory was that it assumed within the context of his time that the only goal of humankind in general was to produce the basic necessities of life. The very technologies that made it easier to produce plows, needles, and cooking stoves also made it easier to produce cheap goods that in the past had been considered luxuries, which in turn provided jobs for those who would have been displaced in a society that was only geared to provide the basic needs for survival. And the explosion in the standard of living proceeded from there.
Nor did Marx envision that the very basic necessities of life would change. It may well be that nobody “needs” a cell phone or computer but you really can’t participate in the modern economy without such items. Society evolves.
If the allowable fruits of technology are frozen at a particular level it is not hard to see how Marx’s predictions would come true. If the standard of living is static but technology advances this will indeed be the outcome. And guess what–by pure coincidence this is what the Green movement and the allied AGW crowd want to do–freeze or actually reduce the standard of living by government fiat either directly or indirectly.
If affordable energy drives the capitalist state cripple the source of that energy. If entrepreneurs keep it alive smother the vermin with red tape and persecute them without mercy.
If Capitalism has the bad grace to fail to commit suicide it becomes necessary to slip it some poison in its wine.
21. Eggplant: However the triggering event was Peak Oil.
You say “Peak Oil” in the past tense. We’re not there yet in terms of peak production, globally. Demand has peaked, however, and with China’s housing bubble in the process of popping at this very moment, demand will only continue to fall. All those backhoes they used to dig the foundations for all those ghost cities will now sit idle.
t @ 27: yes, and we’ve filled in with new items and of course services, but there seems to be a problem, and that’s that Marx was also a little bit right about the money value of labor – actual manufacturing truly adds value that many of these subsequent steps do not. And our automation skills are outstripping our inventiveness. It gripes me greatly when (mostly Republicans but also Obambus) say, “Oh, we’ll have our geniuses invent some new stuff and it will all be OK that we’ve shipped existing jobs to China and India.” How’s that working for solar panels, etc? You can’t turn genius on and off like a switch anyway. The computer and Internet revolutions were fortuitous, very unusual in scale and scope, I can hardly imagine the like again anytime in the forseeable future. Not only that, but it’s also the exact revolution that is now eliminating more jobs than it is creating.
Yes, computer revolution followed the assembly line for cars followed electricity and telephone and air travel. Had a great twentieth century. Railroads and steamships in the 19th. Medicine today … is evolving, but cost structure does not seem promising. Biotech – cannot see it as a big job creator. Infrastructure – is a cost center, unless you start putting up toll booths everywhere.
We must remember, this is, overall, GOOD fortune, not bad. It’s the distribution algorithm that is the problem, not production itself. Marx did see that, sort of.
Old Salt @ 26 said:
“… I really need to buy gold now, at any price. I need to put my small retirement funds all into gold, set aside perhaps 25% of my monthly income in gold – I need to go all in for gold and other precious metals.”
If it were possible without taking a huge tax hit, I’d convert all of my 401(k) into Krugerrands and bury them in the backyard. However buying precious metals right now is probably a poor investment choice. The rule-of-thumb is if they’re advertising a particular investment strategy on daytime television then you know it’s a sucker’s bet.
Teresita @ 28 said:
“You say “Peak Oil” in the past tense. We’re not there yet in terms of peak production, globally.”
I was thinking about domestic Peak Oil when I wrote my earlier comment, refer to:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/US_Oil_Production_and_Imports_1920_to_2005.png
It’s a matter of public record that continental US petroleum production reached peak in 1970 and the first oil shock followed a few years later. Depending upon how you draw the curves, the world reached Peak Oil a couple years ago or will peak around 2037 (make your choice), refer to:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f2/PU200611_Fig1.png
[comment #3 of 4]
The Euro Sumo meetings continue apace. Early today there was a tag team event between the mimes and the clowns. The mimes called foul because of the clowns use of seltzer bottles firing up nose. So far no one has accused the Yakuza of fixing the matches.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/26/us-eurozone-crisis-strains-idUSTRE79P68O20111026
Zero Hedge report frustration on the inability to execute the “Buy on rumor, sell on news” technique since all the news is rumor and b.s.
21. Eggplant
US oil production started rising again for the first time in over thirty years starting in 2005;
Here’s a map of US oil shale/gas fields available for development in the USA.
http://205.254.135.24/oil_gas/rpd/shale_gas.jpg
Its all available for extraction –including the fields in California at current prices. These fields at their most expensive produce oil for 55@barrel.
Here is Richard quoting Ambrose Prichards
The arrival at the crossroads comes at a time of great opportunity for the United States. As Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Daily Telegraph noted, America has arrived by a twist of fate at what may prove to be an even more dominant role in the world. The European implosion, coming on the heels of the Soviet collapse, is now being succeeded by an American accession to energy dominance coming as a result of new oil extraction technology. The result is that despite the mistakes in Washington DC, America finds itself at the top of a heap of nations which have managed to outblunder it.
The American phoenix is slowly rising again. Within five years or so, the US will be well on its way to self-sufficiency in fuel and energy. Manufacturing will have closed the labour gap with China in a clutch of key industries. The current account might even be in surplus. …
It is almost the only economic power with a fertility rate above 2.0 – and therefore the ability to outgrow debt – in sharp contrast to the demographic decay awaiting Japan, China, Korea, Germany, Italy, and Russia. …
The 21st Century may be American after all, just like the last.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8844646/World-power-swings-back-to-America.html
http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2011/10/24/in-reverse/
US oil imports have already fallen from 2/3 to under 50% of US oil consumption.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WTTIMUS2&f=W
Quoting again from Ambrose Prichard
“The US was the single largest contributor to global oil supply growth last year, with a net 395,000 barrels per day (b/d),” said Francisco Blanch from Bank of America, comparing the Dakota fields to a new North Sea.
The Roman Catholic curia just told us how to fix the whole thing for the better. Too bad the EU countries that are dragging everyone else down are Catholic or orthodox. Think we have the arrogantly humble here in the White House? Nothing beats those traipsing around in vestments, invoking borrowed glories.
17. Josh
Fracking has pushed off any day of reckoning there by a century, plenty of time to get thorium working,
………..
Thorium power plants will come much sooner than that, we’re talking less than a decade.
cheap safe thorium production
http://www.lanl.gov/science/NSS/issue2_2011/story6full.shtml
http://www.lanl.gov/news/releases/lanl_earns_thee_rd100_awards.html
cheap safe thorium reactors.
http://www.thorium.tv/en/thorium_reactor/thorium_reactor_1.php
(The biggest roadblock to deployment in the USA will be regulatory.)
#29. Josh–
When the cost of living goes down the value of luxury services goes up, amongst other things because more people can afford to spend their money on them and the demand increases.
And I suspect that the industrial paradigm of mass production may indeed be receding into the past except for specialized things like refining raw materials into steel. We are on the cusp of having machines that are 3D replicators that can turn out designer machines for little more cost than an identical model could be made if it was manufactured in a huge factory that was built for turning out a single uniform product.
Think of the possibilities. You want a robot vacuum cleaner that is shaped and custom designed to fit to the contours of your house? You can have it. Somebody can design and have it built using software that not everyone would want to master but can be done without being Einstein, perhaps something no more complicated than MS Excel. Jobs.
And servicing and maintaining the machines that make this possible? Jobs.
And then there is the growing opportunity of people who can be bridges between various technical disciplines, people who do not qualify (as an example) as being electrical or automotive engineers but can explain to both of them why a micro-controller of a specific geometry cannot be used in close proximity to an engine spark plug.
And then there are the folks who create things like “pet rocks.” I wish I had done that.
Never underestimate the power of people to create value. To do so is to emulate the moron in the 1800′s who wanted to shut the US patent office down because, to him, everything that could have been invented already had been invented.
33. Evanston2:
Which parish — Saint A’s or Mary’s? (Assuming Illinois, not Wyoming).
Time will probably prove Charles (32 and 34) right. Nevertheless, some folks might want to hedge their bets. http://www.fredoneverything.net/Disengagement.shtml
Btw, it’s “etiolated.”
From CNBC today about the EU:
‘A draft summit statement obtained by Reuters on Wednesday indicated policymakers were considering creating a special purpose vehicle to attract sovereign and private investment from the likes of the International Monetary Fund, China and others.’
“Special Purpose Vehicle” – rings a bell – ENRON! Yes I think that ENRON had a Special Purpose Vehicle. The EU geniuses have finally found their guru and it’s ENRON. The fog clears.
Charles @ 34,
I remain skeptical that hydrocarbon fuels could bring about an American economic renaissance. Likewise, I assume any green energy scheme (wind, photovoltaics, etc.) is a socialist subsidized scam until contrary compelling technical proof is demonstrated. However I am very optimistic that nuclear energy coupled with synthetic petroleum from coal could bring about economic rebirth. Energy from thorium breeder reactors is a very exciting technology. Also, a large number of plutonium pits from old nuclear weapons are currently stored at the Pantex facility. Those old pits represent a significant national security risk and should be converted into electricity at nuclear power plants. Again, one of the keys to restoring prosperity is utilizing high EROI energy sources.
[Comment #4 of 4] I’m done.
Josh@5: “And we still don’t know where we’re going, in a globlized, automated world with more people than work, ”
Josh- We are no where near where there should be more people than work.
• The problem right now in the US is that government intervention in the marketplace has made the cost of basic necessities – food, housing, transportation, energy, health care, insurance and education more expensive than income paid to the average worker, and that price explosion is just gathering steam.
The cost of basic necessities, if the market was allowed to do it’s magic, should have gone way down, not way up.
• That same government has also sent most of our best jobs overseas as you have commented many, many times, has as well as devalued those jobs remaining here.
• That same government also illegally indebted you, me and virtually every American, except for the connected Elites, with trillions of public and private debt.
• That same government also devalued the worth of all America’s assets in their currency manipulation and debt schemes.
The problem is that too many Americans have not had the gumption to understand what is going on in the world and have not had the guts to call out, slam and run out of town the fashionable rent seekers who have pillaged and raped America.
How many times Josh, have your written that no one could have done a much better job than Buraq, our most hallowed Dear Leader, or what a good job the Bernank has done? Both of those ideas are just so ridiculously false, it unbelievable.
To fatalistically blame our current economic plight on some such ” there are more people and jobs” idea is just pathetic.
Much of the world today is starving, and lives in such horrific conditions that it would make most of us violently ill if we were faced with such a plight. The opportunities to improve the world in our lifetimes are almost endless. All those automated and computerized robotic capabilities you deride could be used, if used wisely, to launch tremendous advances that would improve the lives of billions. If only our damn government would get out of the way, even after all thievery and pillaging by the rent seekers, our economy could very quickly rebound to a much more prosperous, higher standard of living and at the same time greatly improve the lot of the rest of the world as well.
DECLASSIFIED American government documents show that the US intelligence community ran a campaign in the Fifties and Sixties to build momentum for a united Europe. It funded and directed the European federalist movement.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/1356047/Euro-federalists-financed-by-US-spy-chiefs.html
It seems to me that the reasons for Germany remaining in the Euro have to be getting shorter. They seem to be guilted into staying in order to preserve stability and prevent any future intra-European wars. Maybe I am being influenced by recency bias, but is there any Euro country that could seriously even think about threatening another Euro country militarily? It took the whole of them to try to overthrow a small N. African country of 6MM people and that wasn’t exactly Shock and Awe. I guess that could change, but the demographics of an aging Europe would argue against them waging war on each other.
And if Steve C is correct, and many smart people agree with him, why would Germany hang around if the ultimate goal is rapid monetization of scofflaw country debt?
42. steeple
because:
http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Navigation/Statistics/Aussenhandel/Handelspartner/Handelspartner.psml
Europe, and particularly France is the biggest Germany client for german made goods, if such a market disappears, then Germany can close her manufactures, and bye bye to the second rank as world exporter, and hello China everywhere !
Hmm some say that China made some agreement with Germany to let her selling German goods in China, and in compensation the Mediterranean club would be fully open to China goods. If you’d travelled to Spain and or Portugal, you would see numerous Chinese stores, and some big stores that display their merchandises to spanish stores, especially clothes. I saw in Crevillent (near Alicante) a big industrial zone full of such stores, where Chinese are employes, and they also manufacture on the place.
I have no sympathy for this new Europe made in Germany, that wants the Europeans to become german vassals.
If the Germans don’t want that ECB prints money, it’s not only because they are afraid of Inflation, but because they want the Europeans at their mercy, .
Merkel doesn’t miss some aplomb when she affirms that the German parliament vote would prevent a war from happening in the coming 50 years, because precisely, it’s her austerity and recession for the others that will bring war !
BTW, French banks aren’t so much exposed to the Greek national debt as the German’s are, France is much implied in italian national debt. So Greece default wasn’t a problem for us.
It seems that this is a organised crisis, so that the fiscal union is implemented
“According to the new figures, a preliminary release of which went out in April, French banks have $56.7bn of lending exposure to Greece while German banks have about $40bn. But look closer, because the BIS figures have something new — a breakdown of credit exposure by type. On that basis, German banks are the most exposed to Greek government debt with $22.7bn held. French banks have $15bn.”
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/06/06/585381/bis-the-burdensharing-new-greek-exposure-numbers/
I think Nicholson said it better than Marx.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73PnAymHAHk
I actually went to NYC (from Minneapolis) to see what the mess was about. Apart from the usual inconsistencies in desires and values espoused I was struck also by the heavy sense of cheerful — indeed, inevitable — entitlement. Is it possible this isn’t so much about anger, really, as much as it is about some undefined extortion? And another point: What do we think would happen to the OWS crowd and sympathizers if stripped of people who lied on their loans and/or are net negative in terms of taxes paid and benefits received? We’d be left with what exactly?
reply to MC #41
that’s right MC, it’s all part of America’s cunning plan to destroy is enemies.
first Russia was bankrupted by trying to compete with Reagan’s military spending.
Now, europe is being destroyed by bad debt because they attempted to keep up with Wall Street’s financial chicanery.
And china is next, duped into competing with the US over who can create the largest housing bubble.
they’re fiendish, those yankees…
I love how people in europe, outside Germany, are blaming everyone but themselves…
The natural end result of socialism: Ich Bin Ein Merkel.
“That Germany, the country responsible for two world wars, is raising the prospect of future conflict is a measure of the panic sweeping Europe about the unrest that could follow a collapse of the single currency.”
…-
“Don’t put Europe’s peace at risk: German chancellor warns of war if currency fails”
“‘If the euro fails, Europe fails’ warns Merkel in stark speech”
“The peace and prosperity Europe has enjoyed for generations could be put at risk if the euro collapses, the German Chancellor said yesterday.
Angela Merkel raised the spectre of future conflict as it emerged that a comprehensive deal to save the single currency from economic catastrophe could be weeks away.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2053633/EU-summit-Angela-Merkel-warns-peace-risk-Euro-debt-crisis-isnt-solved.html
BRUSSELS (AP) – A European Union official says the currency union’s leaders have reached a deal with banks to take losses of 50 percent of their Greek bonds in a key move to solve the eurozone’s debt crisis.
For every 100 Euros they have invested in Greece, banks get 15 Euros cash now, and 35 Euros after 30 years, at six percent interest, except those new bonds are NOT backed by the full faith and credit of the German taxpayer.
Since Greece has been adopting austerity measures only to win new bailouts, they can now go back to business as usual. They don’t have to fire all those government employees after all. Greece is officially too big to fail.
Thatcher warned them about running out of OPM. If the Youropeans think China is going to shovel euros into the EU coffers until China is broke too, they will find out how wrong they are. The EU can either bite the bullet now or feel it hit the bone when all the OPM is gone.
Angel @41,
“I love how people in europe, outside Germany, are blaming everyone but themselves…”
Exactly my thoughts. Absent throughout all the media rumpus regarding Europe’s failed experiment in Federal government is any trace of introspection.
To this observer, D’Estang’s dream for a Franco-centric counterweight to the Anglo projects in North America (and the Southern hemisphere, far and near Asia, Africa and South America) manifested, resembles the Hindenberg zeppelin, just before it burst into flames. France’s communists have hauled that nation into the ditch. Their penchent for playing politics with France’s unions, pensioners, its students, its immigrants, and its nostalgia for greater times, has left the nation strapped with debt and lunging like a drunk towards whoever will buy her another drink.
Germany’s interest in the French project was always opportunistic. Merkel, by playing sugar daddy to its baleful indigent is simply playing to the Weimar’s enduring script. And just as a financial transaction bought Alaska from Russia, debt, promises and ‘transfers’ earn Germany title to the economies and polities of a region extending from Portugal, thru Napoleon’s cherished Corsica, to Greece’s border with Turkey, and Northward to le Seine.
I’d sure like to see some ink devoted to analyses that delve deeper into the ‘nudging’ and plotting that underwrote the EU-project. Who? What? When? Why?
Maybe PJMedia can do this heavy lifting.
Oops! Typo alert!
Senne should read “Seine.” Its an important commercial waterway in Northern France. And, yes, I do know that I’m understating its cultural importance to the nation of France.
Charles De Gaulle is rolling over in his grave right now.
The problem w/ writing books is that it ruinously expensive in terms of time and unless you write a best seller, it is unlikely to return a major investment. I think the best way forward is probably to write pamphlets, which are less costly. That creates a little bit of headway toward writing a “book”.
Newer readers are encouraged to review older posts…
EROEI has been throughly debunked time and again — but the same true believers keep pushing it.
Peak Oil is nonsense since discoveries are entirely politicized — the bulk of the planet is off limits to the West.
Green energy is a payola scam of the first water. Solyndra will be but the camel’s nose… All of the misadministration’s loans were vetted the same way. The bulk went out the door the very last day permitted by the legislation!
—-
Thorium is a hobby horse constantly ridden by Charles.
In fact, both America and the USSR spent a bundle trying to get anything going with thorium.
Thorium, per se, can’t burn in a reactor. It’s FERTILE not FISSILE. It has to be promoted, in a conventional reactor, into U233. Rapid expansion of Thorium based fission is therefore utterly impossible. This last bit is entirely skipped over in the enthusiasm.
Beyond that, American efforts found that no molten salt scheme of any kind could work.
It is in the nature of the fission reaction to leave behind ‘hot’ atoms: these start as the fragments of the reaction — but also include the first colidees struck by the remnants. Hot atoms are promoted to energies 100,000 times ordinary chemical reactions.
So you’re left with a soup of hyper-active halogens that tear every known substance apart.
If you can omit them — you’ve still got crippling problems with hot hydrogen and the like. These beasties rip concrete into dust.
The final years of testing focused entirely on materials testing. The hope was that some substances could be found that were practical. Nothing ever turned up.
Moscow trod the same road — giving up also.
Thorium converters always look great on paper and fall apart ( literally ) in the field.
Until a demo is done — treat all such blather in the manner of perpetual motion machines — skip the drawings: show me a working device.
It still does not exist. (!)
——-
There’s a clown up in Michigan who’s conned the government for more than $2,000,000 in R&D funding. He’s sold them a bill of goods. He has a ‘new engine’ with amazing properties. However it will require materials like un-obtainium.
——
The hope that water into the desert would make a huge difference is also false. Politics is going to entirely mess up any such undertaking.
Like the Libyan campaign to tap deep desert water to change all. At this time all of the key experts have fled.
Until islam is dethroned nothing else matters.
——–
The press, even the skeptics, can’t put their finger on what has happened: Greece has run a sovereign embezzlement.
Period.
The losers are the European mega-banks.
The way is harsh – - but Greece has to be simply cut off entirely. One does not keep sending funds to a thief.
What money power Germany and France has needs to be directed towards nationalizing their mega-banks.
Such, must be the end game.
BTW, Greece has no end of national assets that can, and should, be sold off to reduce her debts.
This drama must end with European banks greatly down-sized from today’s levels — and with Germany’s export engine running on 5 cylinders.
China is also going to see a severe contraction in exports — which are big factors in the PIIGS.
Copper prices are falling pretty fast — the market is placing its bet on contraction — and it’s a strong one.
This downturn is healthy and necessary. With nationalization, the Europeans can fire the crew that sailed the bank into shallow seas — and put lids on the outrageous wages extracted by their respective Money Trusts ™.
Steveaz, you read to much into the brit merdia french bashing !
check my link in post #41, it was the US that plotted such a EU
and it was Churchill that advocated it in his Discourse in Zurich 1946
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8oUyFS556s
it was the left Nazis banksters and corporations that wanted it
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1179902/Revealed-The-secret-report-shows-Nazis-planned-Fourth-Reich–EU.html
So the Nazis planned the Fourth Reich, and figured they could get away with it by calling it the EU. I’ll be danged. Well it’s a better idea than running off to the Dark Side of the Moon. But tell me, how did they get the French to sign on? Just think of the fun the stand up comics will have with that one.
But dadgummit, what is the attraction of building an empire? It’s costing them money. Did they do it just so everyone could travel visa free to Spain and Greece for a vacation? And dodgastit, how are they fixing to keep things going in this Fourth Reich, whose principal characteristic is bankruptcy?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-boots-ground-china-signs-slowdown-are-obvious
And so it is: China is contracting.
Hence the price fall in copper.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: In the current crisis, Greece was initially pledged €110 billion from the euro-zone and the International Monetary Fund. Now a further rescue package of similar dimensions has become necessary. How big were Germany’s previous defaults?
Ritschl: Measured in each case against the economic performance of the USA, the German debt default in the 1930s alone was as significant as the costs of the 2008 financial crisis. Compared to that default, today’s Greek payment problems are actually insignificant
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,769703,00.html
@50: “Germany’s interest in the French project was always opportunistic. Merkel, by playing sugar daddy to its baleful indigent is simply playing to the Weimar’s enduring script. And just as a financial transaction bought Alaska from Russia, debt, promises and ‘transfers’ earn Germany title to the economies and polities of a region extending from Portugal, thru Napoleon’s cherished Corsica, to Greece’s border with Turkey, and Northward to the Senne.”
Sounds like a Greater West Europe Co-Prosperity Sphere, achieved without an army or navy. Too bad the Japanese of the 30′s and 40′s didn’t figure it out in their own domain.
Marie Claude,
I always enjoy our banters, and I appreciate your notice.
My recollections are hazy, but much of the jaw-jaw directed towards France by her English-speaking friends has been crafted to win her support for American and British agendas, both during and after WWII. In an attempt to curry favor first with a De Gaulle, then with a Mitterand, and later with a De Villepin, our rhetoric tended to reflect ideas that we thought France’s intelligentsia would enjoy (which is something that America’s socialists continue to do to this day BTW).
But France, as represented by her leaders at the time, suffered from an inordinate degree of chauvinism and pride. Most of which was fashioned for French voters’ consumption, but which involved intentionally irking her Canadian, American, and British ‘allies’ in key public fora. And this, only to cover for France’s burgeoning civil service sector, captured agri-, fuel and transport industries, arbitrary trade tariffs, and loss of prestige due the horrors of the Vichey era.
And little, really, has changed since the seventies. Only nine short years ago the French foreign ministry foiled American and British attempts to reform Iraq in UN auspices. If securing engagement, acknowledgement and detente from Anglo-saxon nations were France’s goals in the early ‘oughts, well, she got it.
I’ll follow your links later, though, to see where they lead.
wretchard
how many nazis were hanged in Nuremberg? not many ! at least not the von Schröder, the Mayer bankers… not Thyssen Krupp siemens bosses ! (that had free concentration slave labour)
http://www.rue89.com/tele89/2011/04/30/le-systeme-octogon-arte-la-censure-et-le-tresor-cache-des-nazis-201530
hmm Jean Monnet who was the Nations league secretary that collected war reparations through Ruhr coal exportations, was the at the Head of the financial organisation, which home was in Basel, and was/is called BIS.
Besides of that he was a close advizer to Roosevelt for allotting funds to the allies and Resistants, he had all the connections for making such a EU shema after the war, through him the pill passed for the French, though de Gaulle had little interest and confidence in him
It didn’t cost more money than the banks were prepared to invest.
Hmm did you see a German giving up money for free, even to Greece, loans are not cheap (at least they were charged two times what the German banks (French banks too) paid to ECB.
But I conceide that the German population was/is fooled by their elite, like we were by ours.
I have no confidence in the whole “Machin” (de Gaulle’s word)
55. wretchard
Actually, they are testing the McDonalds theory, which is that no two conutries with a McDonalds have ever gone two war against each other. If it’s true, we just make Ronald McDonald Secretary of State and train diplomats how to say “Super size that?” in 191 languages. Then peace breaks out. The money saved by paying diplomats minimum wage goes toward the bail out de’jour.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/06/russia.mcdonalds
MY bad. It seems Russia invading Georgia ( I can hear Mr. X whining) blew up the McPeace theory. Oh well, I guess we are back to the French planting trees along the roadside so the Germans can march in the shade.
59. steveaz
Chauvinism and pride are exacerbated when there’s a whole cabal aimed at demonising a country, like the neocons undertook it during Bush junior era, but still propagated by certain Brit papers, who still think that their readers are living 2 centuries ago, for them we are still the country that empeches them to play a major role in Europe, like they used too before, when they could forge and break alliances for the equilibrium of forces in Europe, so that they will not be threaten by a major power. They effectively think that we want to ally with Germany to become the masters of Europe, when they are the third wheel of the coach ! And Sarkozy is giving them enough honey to play on that scenario !
If we were heard as a population, the less we want is to direct Europe, but to recover our autonomy
Just as a point of fact, the Euro project dates back about 1200 years. Charles the great started it. He died and Europe was split up among his sons. Ever since then somebody has been trying to put the pieces back together. Napoleon and Hitler came close.The Project is actually doable this century. It won’t be done by faceless bureaucrats. It won’t be done by fast talking politicians. It won’t be done by a Despot or Tyrant.
It can be done by a vote. Hold a referendum once a decade. Address the popular objections until it passes. When the citizens of Europe are ready, it will be impossible to stop them from uniting.
stoicheion
it was sully that started to plant trees along the roadsides, especially the sort that was useful to make barrels, and Colbert carried on the habit when he undertook the “big works”
http://www.memo.fr/article.asp?ID=PER_MOD_220
53. blert
In fact, both America and the USSR spent a bundle trying to get anything going with thorium.
Thorium, per se, can’t burn in a reactor. It’s FERTILE not FISSILE. It has to be promoted, in a conventional reactor, into U233. Rapid expansion of Thorium based fission is therefore utterly impossible. This last bit is entirely skipped over in the enthusiasm.
Beyond that, American efforts found that no molten salt scheme of any kind could work.
………………
Blert sounds like you want me to do your research for you. humpf.
Ok
Molten Salt Reactors were developed at Oak Ridge (ORNL) from the late 1940s to the early 1970s,
highlighted by two successful test reactors.
http://torium.se/res/Documents/dleblancnewvisiongenivpdf.pdf
In a Molten Salt Reactor (MSR), the fuel is dissolved in a fluoride salt coolant. The technology was partly developed, including two demonstration reactors, in the 1950‟s and 1960‟s in USA (ORNL). Compared with solid-fuelled reactors, MSR systems have lower fissile inventories, are insensitive to fuel radiation damage that can limit fissile and fertile material utilization, provide the possibility of continuous fission-product removal, avoid the expense of fabricating fuel elements, give the possibility of adding makeup fuel as needed, which precludes the need for providing excess reactivity, and employ a homogeneous isotopic composition of fuel in the reactor. These and other characteristics may enable MSRs to have potentially unique capabilities and competitive economics for actinide burning and extending fuel resources.
http://www.gen-4.org/GIF/About/documents/30-Session2-8-Renault.pdf
The thorium fission fuel cycle was investigated over the period 1950-1976 in the Molten Slt Breeder Reactor (MSBR) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as well as in the pilot Shippingport fission reactor plant, which was a replica of a naval reactor design, and operated for 5 years on a single load of fuel and ended the run with a more bred fissle fuel U233 fuel than the fissle U235 feed that it was started with.
The existing U238-U235 fuel cycle has been favored to the Th232-U233 for historical reasons. The early reactors need to be powered using the U235 isotope that occurs in natural uranium to produce Pu239 from 238. Thorium could not have been used since it is fissionable but not fissle to build a self sustaining
chain reaction.
https://netfiles.uiuc.edu/mragheb/www/NPRE%20402%20ME%20405%20Nuclear%20Power%20Engineering/Fission%20Fusion%20Thorium%20Hybrid.pdf
………….
Another words the reason the program was dropped was because they wanted nuclear power that was duel use. Thorium didn’t fit that agenda.
A little while back the Chinese got wind of the thorium based molten salt reactors and sent a delegation to Oak Ridge.
……………..
China has officially announced it will launch a program to develop a thorium-fueled molten-salt nuclear reactor, taking a crucial step towards shifting to nuclear power as a primary energy source.
The project was unveiled at the annual Chinese Academy of Sciences conference in Shanghai last week, and reported in the Wen Hui Bao newspaper.
China’s program is headed by Jiang Mianheng, son of the former Chinese president Jiang Zemin. A vice president of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the younger Jiang holds a Ph.D. in electrical engineering from Drexel University. A Chinese delegation headed by Jiang revealed the thorium plans to Oak Ridge scientists during a visit to the national lab last fall.
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/02/china-thorium-power/
……………………..
The growing interest in thorium has caught the interest of the US Congress.
President’s Blue Ribbon Commission Recommends LFTR Study
The Reactor and Fuel Cycle Technology Subcommittee of the President’s Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future released its draft report in June 2011. Page 51 discusses thorium’s LFTR technology:
“A prototype molten salt nuclear reactor (the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment) operated in the U.S. from 1965 to 1969 and at one point the U.S. had a program to develop a full-scale reactor. Substantial interest in this technology, today commonly called the Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor, has reemerged due to its capacity to operate at high temperatures with thorium fuel…The Subcommittee recommends that DOE perform a detailed technology assessment to determine the status of this technology as a basis for deciding whether it should be pursued further.”
http://nvthorium.org/
…………..
. Currently, thorium is not even mentioned in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s policies. In order to move thorium forward, the US legislature must update its laws. Senator Reid (D-NV) and Hatch (R-UT) have sponsored a bill in the 2010 legislative session to do just that (but, it needs support to get reintroduced in this session of Congress).
http://nvthorium.org/
55. wretchard
some other times you happen to use a daily Mail article, so it’s surprising that it disturbs you that I bring one for my “unexpected” and non political corrected argumentation
52. wretchard
The problem w/ writing books is that it ruinously expensive in terms of time and unless you write a best seller, it is unlikely to return a major investment. I think the best way forward is probably to write pamphlets, which are less costly. That creates a little bit of headway toward writing a “book”.
………..
In the marketing industry recently there have been a number of forums devoted to monetizing the How To market. On google and elsewhere, people all the time want answers to how to questions and they’re willing to pay a couple bucks to down the answers to their ipads & laptops.
53. blert
In fact, both America and the USSR spent a bundle trying to get anything going with thorium.
Thorium, per se, can’t burn in a reactor. It’s FERTILE not FISSILE. It has to be promoted, in a conventional reactor, into U233. Rapid expansion of Thorium based fission is therefore utterly impossible. This last bit is entirely skipped over in the enthusiasm.
Beyond that, American efforts found that no molten salt scheme of any kind could work.
………………
Blert sounds like you want me to do your research for you.
Ok
Molten Salt Reactors were developed at Oak Ridge (ORNL) from the late 1940s to the early 1970s,
highlighted by two successful test reactors.
http://torium.se/res/Documents/dleblancnewvisiongenivpdf.pdf
The thorium fission fuel cycle was investigated over the period 1950-1976 in the Molten Slt Breeder Reactor (MSBR) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as well as in the pilot Shippingport fission reactor plant, which was a replica of a naval reactor design, and operated for 5 years on a single load of fuel and ended the run with a more bred fissle fuel U233 fuel than the fissle U235 feed that it was started with.
The existing U238-U235 fuel cycle has been favored to the Th232-U233 for historical reasons. The early reactors need to be powered using the U235 isotope that occurs in natural uranium to produce Pu239 from 238. Thorium could not have been used since it is fissionable but not fissle to build a self sustaining
chain reaction.
https://netfiles.uiuc.edu/mragheb/www/NPRE%20402%20ME%20405%20Nuclear%20Power%20Engineering/Fission%20Fusion%20Thorium%20Hybrid.pdf
OS@26 – “However, I really need to buy gold now, at any price.”
Gold is only useful as backing to another currency. If all the gold ever extracted by mankind were distributed among the world’s population, each person would have less than 1 oz. Fine chains of gold could be used for currency, one link per 10 gals of milk for instance, if Cosco remains viable. Counterfeiting remains a problem though.
Instead, go to your bank and buy nickels. Not only do you make an immediate 20% profit, but rolls of nickels fit perfectly into empty 30 caliber ammo cans which you can use to line your bunker walls once the shooting starts.
53. blert
And just so you know where things are right now.
February 1, 2011
China has officially announced it will launch a program to develop a thorium-fueled molten-salt nuclear reactor, taking a crucial step towards shifting to nuclear power as a primary energy source.
The project was unveiled at the annual Chinese Academy of Sciences conference in Shanghai last week, and reported in the Wen Hui Bao newspaper
In the 1960s and 70s, the United States carried out extensive research on thorium and MSRs at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. That work was abandoned — partly, believe many, because uranium reactors generated bomb-grade plutonium as a byproduct. Today, with nuclear weapons less in demand and cheap oil’s twilight approaching, several countries — including India, France and Norway — are pursuing thorium-based nuclear-fuel cycles. (The grassroots movement to promote an American thorium power supply was covered in this December 2009 Wired magazine feature.)
China’s program is headed by Jiang Mianheng, son of the former Chinese president Jiang Zemin. A vice president of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the younger Jiang holds a Ph.D. in electrical engineering from Drexel University. A Chinese delegation headed by Jiang revealed the thorium plans to Oak Ridge scientists during a visit to the national lab last fall.
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/02/china-thorium-power/
President’s Blue Ribbon Commission Recommends LFTR Study
The Reactor and Fuel Cycle Technology Subcommittee of the President’s Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future released its draft report in June 2011. Page 51 discusses thorium’s LFTR technology:
“A prototype molten salt nuclear reactor (the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment) operated in the U.S. from 1965 to 1969 and at one point the U.S. had a program to develop a full-scale reactor. Substantial interest in this technology, today commonly called the Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor, has reemerged due to its capacity to operate at high temperatures with thorium fuel…The Subcommittee recommends that DOE perform a detailed technology assessment to determine the status of this technology as a basis for deciding whether it should be pursued further.”[italics added]
This is a significant advance for thorium energy. It means that long dormant LFTR documentation of the 60s has been recognized for its possible benefits. Furthermore, the commission states: “nuclear energy systems that involve…molten-salt…using thorium …could potentially offer many of the combined [italics added] benefits of the alternatives listed (the alternatives listed are currently used and proposed systems.”
These statements reflect the growing interest in thorium and its benefits over current nuclear technology.
Currently, thorium is not even mentioned in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s policies. In order to move thorium forward, the US legislature must update its laws. Senator Reid (D-NV) and Hatch (R-UT) have sponsored a bill in the 2010 legislative session to do just that
http://nvthorium.org/
re: Thorium and Oak Ridge. When I was there I touched some of the old equipment. Amazing what we could do with 1950′s technology (back when engineers engineered) – and can’t seem to replicate today.
Another sad side effect of putting government in charge (rather than the market). The need to compete w/ the Sovs on tons of plutonium put the first thumb-on-the-scales. Today we have strangulation by regulation killing off invention – where regulation has put even traditional reactor fuel business at risk. Bill Gates believes there’s an opportunity for 100 50-100M$ startups in this area, of which 5 or so will be successful. But they have no prayer given current regulations.
RE: EROEI metric
Either the metric has value or it is ambivalent to the point of being useless (better critique on The Oil Drum which notes that use of renewables as input energy throws off the accounting.)
China is doing it all – nuclear, oil (on track to become if not already largest customer of ME oil), coal-to-liquid (profitable plants in operation), renewables (leads the world in wind capacity), conservation.
China is intent on becoming the world leader in nuclear power in just a few decades, generating more nuclear power than the United States by 2030 at much less cost.
Daniel Yergin on the Rebirth of Renewables.
Really, I wish the honorable Representative Farage would stop beating about the bush, and tell us what he REALLY thinks.
I mean really, magic beans procure magic gas, and isn’t that what people keep saying we need? Natural gas?! Or is it cognitive dissonance? I can’t remember which…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/foreigners-sell-second-largest-amount-us-bonds-ever-past-week-record-93bn-us-paper-sale-past-2-
It’s not just the French.
Blert @73,
I hope they got top dollar for ‘em.