Virginia Sen. Jim Webb said that an obsession with the Middle East has distracted Washington from the dangers in the Western Pacific. He told David Gregory on “Meet the Press” Sunday that while it was mesmerized elsewhere the U.S. had let China expand unchecked. “Our situation in East Asia with respect to China and China’s expansionist military activities has deteriorated. We are at a point in the South China Sea right now where we are approaching a Munich moment with China, and it’s not being discussed.”
Not even Gregory wanted to discuss it, according to Nicholas Benton at Maritime Security Asia. “Last weekend on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” anchor David Gregory repeatedly ignored the comments by Virginia’s U.S. Senator Jim Webb about an “Munich moment” in the South China Sea that is extremely important to U.S. strategic interests.”
Gregory was ill-equipped, clearly, to handle any breaking news on his show that had not been vetted by his superiors ahead of time. He twice passed over Sen. Webb’s reference to a troubling act of military aggression by the Chinese to stick to the script on the subjects of Afghanistan and Libya.
But the next day, this Monday, a resolution introduced into the U.S. Senate by Webb was unanimously approved. It put the U.S. Senate on record “deploring the use of force by China in the South China Sea,” and called for “a peaceful, multinational resolution to maritime territorial disputes in Southeast Asia.”
The incident in question occurred on June 9. Three Chinese maritime security vessels ran into and disabled the cables of a Vietnamese exploration ship, the Viking 2, in an area within 200 miles of Vietnam’s continental shelf. The area is recognized under international law to be within Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
This case followed similar incidents on May 26 near Vietnam, and in March near the Philippines, as well as incidents at sea last September in waters of the Senkaku Islands, under the legal administration of Japan, according to a statement issued Monday by Sen. Webb’s office.
China was outside the narrative and therefore invisible to the general press. The trade papers had something to say though. The Diplomat asked whether Webb was really justified in likening China’s expansionism in the South China sea to Munich. True the principles involved were the same, but what was not yet known was whether the consequences would be comparable. Maybe someday if things got very bad then historians would look back in retrospect and say “aha, this is where it all went bad”.
Historical analogies are always imperfect. That holds true here. It remains to be seen whether the South China Sea, a maritime thoroughfare where Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and other dignitaries have repeatedly declared a US national interest, ranks as a lesser objective for Washington. Just one indicator that’s not the case: the 2007 US Maritime Strategy, the guiding document for US Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard efforts, declares in effect that the United States will remain the leading sea power in the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean for the foreseeable future. If Washington is serious about this, it can hardly relegate Southeast Asia—the seam between the two oceans—to afterthought status. In Chamberlain’s terminology, the South China Sea may be a faraway expanse, while Americans may take little interest in regional affairs. They can hardly look on indifferently.
Would concessions egg China on, encouraging it to aggrandize itself further at its neighbors’ expense? This is a central question for China watchers. Settling matters along its maritime periphery—the South China Sea, Taiwan, the Senkaku/Diaoyai Islands dispute, and the like—on its terms could satisfy Beijing. And indeed, these controversies all fall within China’s historic periphery, where China believes it must get its way. But it’s also possible that these would be appetizers, as the Rhineland, Austria, and Czechoslovakia were for Nazi Germany. Whether China would be a sated power or would search out for additional tasty treats remains unclear.
But in the meantime, the stories are all about the Republican obstructionism to raising the debt limit. Yet curioiusly, one of the reasons the administration may be reluctant to resist China more vigorously is because they are looking to borrow more money from Beijing to make “investments” and stimulate the economy for 2012. A key reason why the administration wants assurances from Congress that it will not hinder the further servicing and expansion of debt is to calm China, which holds so much of it.
Unless the limit is raised by August 2, the Treasury says, growing commitments will force a default.
Ratings agencies Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s have warned they may downgrade Washington’s sterling Triple-A debt rating, and leading US creditor China, Wall Street titan JPMorgan Chase and the Federal Reserve have also sounded the alarm.
After five straight days of crisis talks ended Thursday without a clear solution, Obama implored lawmakers to embrace “shared sacrifice” to help break the stalemate.
Washington may or may not care much about Chinese naval actions, but it does worry about whether Beijing would regard Washington with less than complete confidence when it came to buying more of its bonds.
Source: WSJ
“We hope the U.S. government adopts responsible policies to protect the interests of investors,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei at a regular briefing, carrying on the consistent line from Beijing, which held at least $1.152 trillion in Treasury securities as of April, making it the U.S. government’s largest creditor. A spokeswoman for China Investment Corp. said the sovereign wealth fund wouldn’t comment, so as not to cause “unnecessary moves in the market.”
The big government agenda was linked to Cathay by a golden cord. The Right to aJob, to government health care, to an Ipad and other goodies really depended on more money. And the prospect of borrowing more money required China. “Freedom from Want” in the a deficit economy meant No Freedom from China. Perhaps the most impressive thing about James Webb’s warning was that it came from a Democrat. By warning against Chinese moves in the Pacific, Webb indirectly raised an issue which would harm the chances of his own party in 2012. Why did he do it? Perhaps out of some notion of a higher duty to country.
It has now become quaint, even Quixotic, to put the interests of one’s country over personal and party concerns. “Love,” John Le Carre once wrote, “is whatever you can still betray.” And what can moderns still betray? It is now far easier to turn one’s back on an unloved birthplace, the affection for which is now regarded as a kind of bigotry. Today’s political class is far more comfortable owing allegiance to itself. What affection it has left over has never been weighed the crucible of choice. And maybe all that amounts to is a hill of beans. Perhaps that is why concerns about “Munich” have so little resonance today.
Murray Sale asked Kim Philby how he could deny being a traitor in the face of the obvious facts and was told that “to betray, you must first belong. I never belonged.” Never that is, except to the KGB, which Philby fell all over himself to join. “One does not look twice at an offer of enrollment in an elite force.” Cruelty is perhaps the first cousin to self-love. It may even be its child, requiring, as George Eliot put it, “no motive outside itself … only … opportunity.”
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Webb is of course known for his novel Fields Of Fire but I also enjoyed his book about the Borderers–ie, Scots-Irish–just as much. That’s my heritage tho I didn’t realize it until I read the book even as I knew my ancestors were Presbyterian.
He’s an interesting and unconventional guy and particularly, as pointed, in his sense of duty and willingness to go his own way. His recent statement re the involvement in Libya was virtually unique amongst the senatorial class for its clarity. He doesn’t shirk and if he calls it “appeasement”, then I’m with him.
“Our situation in East Asia with respect to China and China’s expansionist military activities has deteriorated”
A classmate of mine from a Spanish class about 10 years ago, who incidentally spoke Mandarin (she was also an illegal alien German lesbian that liked to drink beer), complained bitterly about an E3 surveillance flight off of the China Sea. Most remember that it was forced to land in China after being intercepted in international waters. She said the flights were just George Bush being provocative. I said no, these flights were what maintained peace between two nuclear powers. Getting caught off guard is what initiates wars.
In 1995 I amused a friend when the subject came up I said – “F— China!” The US has been selling out to China for lucre ever since. This government is the generation of ‘Americans’ that murdered their offspring so don’t for a moment think they give a crap about their community let alone their country.
But who knows, maybe we’ll have another Democrat Gulf of Tonkin incident Obama must calculate that it is the best way to cling to power. And they can get Katie Couric to blame it on the Tea Party. I guess that would never happen, who would pay for the DNC’s massive war chest if we were to go to fisticuffs with the hand that feeds it.
Make that a P3.
People talk about China’s holding of US debt as some kind of club held over our head. It seems to me that debt is like marriage — it encumbers both parties, giving neither more sway than the other. China can hardly tell the US to pound sand — we owe them too much money.
As for David Gregory being unwilling (or unable) to continue the conversation about nefarious acts by the Chinese government, I am surprised neither by his lack of knowledge nor his disinterest in going there. The term one-trick pony comes to mind, and his one trick is to make Obama look good. As someone called him and his fraternity in another post, they’re a bunch of presstitutes.
A few months ago I posted this on the occasion of a similar warning about the coming blue water Chines navy. I post it again, a thing I almost never do, because it is useful to remind all that the US Navy is still the most powerful force on, above and below blue water. Yes, China is building a blue water navy, and some worry that the Chinese navy will push the United States navy out of the western Pacific. This is arrant nonsense. The Chinese are not building a blue water navy, they are building a collection of blue water targets. A navy is not a collection of ships, a navy is tradition and culture. A navy is Drake and Hawkins taking their little ships against the Armada, a navy is a squadron hull down outside Brest, beating up against a northeast blow, keeping station month after month lest the Frogs cross their yards and come out. A navy is John Paul Jones crying he has not yet begun to fight, and Stephen Decatur sailing into Tripoli harbor and burning the captured frigate Philadelphia. A navy is Nelson putting the telescope to his blind eye, and Charles Stewart taking his 44 into the English Channel and beating the two Brits rash enough to attack him. A navy is the CSS Virginia sailing into Hampton Roads and taking on the entire Federal fleet. A navy is Foote taking his gunboats upriver under fire, and Farragut running the gauntlet past New Orleans. A navy is the USS Nevada, the only BB on Battleship row with steam up that Sunday morning, standing down the channel, big battle ensign snapping, trying for the open sea in a doomed attempt to get the Jap carriers under her 16 inch guns. A navy is Spruance launching his planes knowing they did not have enough gas to get back, and the Taffies attacking Jap battleships to protect the transports loaded with troops. Where is the Chinese Nelson, where is the Chinese Preble, where is the Chinese Halsey? Not since Zheng He in the early 15th century has a Chinese fleet left home waters. No, if the Chinese navy ever leaves port with hostile intent, they will very quickly become permanent residents of the bottom of the South China Sea.
The rolling sea is restless in the dark
The silent ships glow faintly as they move
With purpose past the looming darkened shore
Where guns and lighted matches lay awake
In fog the forty-four waits for the spark
The flash, the roar, the broadside that will prove
The enemy is there and what is more
He’ll fight for honor and for glory’s sake
The years, like seas, go silent on their way
The wooden walls have given way to steel
Sharp eyes in crows nest no more climb the shrouds
And wooden decks no longer spread with sand
The ships still sail, still anchor in the bay
A rating still stands silent at the wheel
The sun still shines behind the lowering clouds
The Navy still protects this golden land
So, we find out years later that Uncle Ho backed the wrong horse. Maybe he should give Brezhnev or whoever is running the Soviet Union these days a call. Personally I don’t care what is going on in the submerged Sprately Islands as long as the sea lanes remain open. I am more concerned with our friends in that area, Japan, Australia, maybe South Korea.
China’s generals have made no secret that they intend to be the power of the South Pacific region. They have been saying this for years. But this whole budget debate informs that we are not the world’s policeman anymore. The time for that is long past. We need to pick our conflicts carefully and concentrate on helping our friends. Especially friends that join us in sacrifice, like the Australians. Too bad for Viet Nam.
I recently read of naval exercises and contacts between the USN and Vietnam. We have obvious interests in common and, of course, we know they can fight (or at least earlier generations could). Japan is gearing up and there’s S Korea. Things could be worse.
I still remember Clinton giving tech aid to the Chinese—they had him bought and paid for.
wretchard: It has now become quaint, even Quixotic, to put the interests of one’s country over personal and party concerns. “Love,” John Le Carre once wrote, “is whatever you can still betray.” And what can moderns still betray? It is now far easier to turn one’s back on an unloved birthplace, the affection for which is now regarded as a kind of bigotry. Today’s political class is far more comfortable owing allegiance to itself. What affection it has left over has never been weighed the crucible of choice.
I know wretchard is talking about a selfless act by Jim Webb but the act of betrayal passage seems sure to describe Mitch McConnell these days:
http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/07/17/why-is-john-boehner-letting-house-republicans-be-mitch-mcconnells-toy/ He wants to sacrifice the good of the country for his desire to be Senate Majority Leader again.
The brainiacs in Beijing are repeating as farce all of the blunders of the Imperial Japanese Army.
The ONE thing the Japanese couldn’t understand was how extremely parochial their view was.
And they certainly had no understanding of their place in the world. To a man, the key decision makers never left Nippon.
Ditto the PLA and PLAN.
The very few PLAN officers to visit the USN think us a threat. That’s all upside down. Without the USN every one from India to Indonesia could pull a Barbary Coast on China’s critical trade — and absolutely rape her.
So it’s the USN that’s providing tariff free trading for the globe.
—–
The Red Chinese are running a mercantilist trading regime in a fiat world. Thus, it is IMPOSSIBLE for them to NOT attend the auctions. Purchasing our debt is but one half of their currency game.
If anyone is so stupid as to not figure it out: to hold the Yuan in place Beijing HAS TO BUY American financial assets — and the only ones suitable are US Treasury instruments — typically T’notes.
For those unaware:
T’bills — max maturity 365 days — zero coupon — sold on a discounted basis — .98 today = 1.00 later…
T’notes — max maturity 10 years — set coupon paid semi-annually — sold at auction ( can be + par – )
The bulk of long term debt is in the ten-years since it mates up well with commercial needs.
T’bonds — max maturity 30 years ( typ ) — uncallable until 25th year — sold at auction ( can be + par – )
The weighted maturity of US Government debt is actually pretty short. IIRC the most recent figure was under 48 months. A staggering amount of US debt is T’bills — which are rolling at a massive tempo.
The readership should know that the US is entirely unlike ANY other borrower: she is the ‘last turtle.’
The Buck starts and stops in Washington.
The ENTIRE planet is structured around the USD, and our debt instruments.
Such is not true for anyone else. ANYONE.
There is NO comparison.
Default by Uncle Sam is like the Sun winking out.
——-
David Gregory ignoring Webb’s comments epitomizes the myopia of MSM. A potentially incendiary subject, that doesn’t fit the Issue of the Week mentality of the media, rips the desired template and threatens to reflect badly on the Obama administration. Guys like Gregory compromise their profession and serve the public horribly.
I’m not sure what China wants. I’m not sure they know what they want. Perhaps they just want stable sea lanes, as the US stands down. Sure they have a couple of hundred million surplus males. Sure they would seem able to build a heluvalot of medium-technology weapons much more cheaply than we can. But they have that little wart of the Norks stuck to one side, they have the feisty Vietnamese right on their underbelly, they have those horrible Taiwanese floating just offshore, and a billion Indians hiding behind the Himalayas waiting to spring and take over their help desks.
What exactly is Jim Webb ranting about?
And what exactly is his point? Perhaps that we should not dissolve our own military as the Chinese ramp theirs up? Or that Hillary should fly to Peking and speak sternly to a duck?
One interesting effect of Chinese bullying is that the smaller nations in the area are banding together around the US. Instead of driving the US out Chinese aggression is pulling the US further in to the region. Of course, this just means that these are potential allies which the administration can and likely will alienate.
I haven’t really thought it through, but it seems that since China has pegged the Reminbi to the dollar a weak dollar would mean a weak Reminbi. In consequence I would expect that the cost of China’s imports will have risen, and China imports plenty, especially food and oil. Exports would be reciprocally cheap, reversing the trade imbalance between China and the rest of the world; not good for China. In fact China is experiencing a good deal of inflation, particularly with regard to the price of food, everybody complains.
Annoy Mouse, it was an EP-3.
The US should do five things.
1. Give Australia all the B-52s left that are sitting in the boneyard waiting destruction under the old SALT treaty. They can be reengined and would make fine ASM platforms in the event of push South by China.
2. Start building non-nuclear Air Independent Propulsion submarines and sell them at bargain prices to India, Taiwan, Vietnam, Australia, South Korea and the Philippines.
3. Build 1,200 F-22 Raptors and build 3,600 F-35s, followed by another 1,200 to be divided between India Australia RoK and Taiwan.
4. Make it clear using words of one syllable that any hostile act by China could result in the immediate repudiation of all debts credited to the Chinese government or any agent thereof, and all Chinese business is government controlled.
5. Begin hearings in the House regarding the administration of both the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the Espionage Act regarding the influence of the Chinese government in the American political process. Al Gore’s cash and the role of Maurice Strong in advancing interests contrary to the national interest could be revisted.
Walt
All so true, but that tradition can be lost in just one generation of stupidity. Navies need nurturing and action to maintain the ethos. Inappropriate political control, admirals who never saw action and never led anything or anyone, reduction below critical mass and loss of the assets required to field an effective force and that final killer, lack of the will to act decisively all destroy navies. History proves it, even I can see that and I am only a stupid civilian, how come our lords and masters can’t see it?
Munich? Nah. It’s more like the remilitarization of the Rhineland two years earlier.
France was in a major financial crisis and it was trying to stabilize the franc. The French government was worried about the financial costs of mobilization, scaring away foreign investors if there were a war, and getting a massive loan to keep the franc pegged to gold. France feared a devaluation of the franc.
In such an environment, economic fears pushed France to refrain from challenging Nazi Germany’s aggression.
Dear Blast from the Past,
I’m afraid this is going to bite well before we have a chance to build another dozen F-22s, let alone thousands to prime the pump with the last Keynesian stimulus of all — WAR. Prior to hostilities kicking off there’re more ‘black swans’ coming down the pike.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/true-elephant-room-appears-trillions-commercial-and-retail-loans-europes-insolvent-countries
Truly MASSIVE FED discount loans to Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, et al may not be able to hide EUropean insolvency any longer. Even the German export machine could be about to hit a wall.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NevmB7QuqCU
Watching the Fed of New York functionaries justifying to Brother Ron Paul virtually unlimited Fed loans to any European bank that has bothered to set up a branch in NYC was classic. Paul asked the relevant question of whether the Bank of Greece could simply set up a branch and get unlimited loans too, but the functionaries claimed that wasn’t possible because the debts have to be incurred in the U.S. But apparently those rules have been massively bent. What would be the consequences I wonder if shortly after D.C. raises the debt ceiling by hook or crook in two weeks, but the Eurobond and Eurodollar markets blow up right on the eve of that vote?
BTW, for those BCers who still do have some skin in the market — one of the top ten holdings of the ISHARES $ (short term corporate bond fund, notice Credit Suisse of NY’s prominent position, as well as that old zombie TBTF AIG):
Holding % of Fund Coupon Maturity Moody’s/S&P Rating
AT&T INC 0.89% 5.50 2/1/2018 A2 /A-
WELLS FARGO & CO NEW 0.84% 5.62 12/11/2017 A1 /AA-
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 0.79% 6.30 4/23/2019 Aa3 /A+
AMERICAN INTL GROUP 0.77% 5.85 1/16/2018 Baa1 /A-
WAL-MART STORES INC 0.76% 6.50 8/15/2037 Aa2 /AA
CITIGROUP INC 0.74% 8.50 5/22/2019 A3 /A
GENERAL ELEC CAP COR 0.74% 5.62 5/1/2018 Aa2 /AA+
AT&T INC 0.73% 6.55 2/15/2039 A2 /A-
CREDIT SUISSE NEW YO 0.71% 5.30 8/13/2019 Aa1 /A+
VERIZON COMMUNICATIO 0.71% 8.75 11/1/2018 A3 /A-
ISHARES just positions its clients to deal with the United Corporatist States of America…
Why call it the “South China Sea”? Why not call it something else? Whenever we refer to that region as the “South China Sea”, we implicitly recognize China’s claim over that territory. Why isn’t it called the Vietnamese Sea, the Malaysian Sea, or the West Philippine Sea?
Here’s the more relevant Ron Paul video re: 88% of Fed discount window loans going to non-U.S. banks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fc4DDBvsYPg&feature=related\
Marie Claude my dear, the German banksters have some explainin’ to do.
Perhaps as Mr. X’s in-laws keep suggesting there will still be some Moscow bank left standing for Mr. X to work for when the U.S. has its ‘Russia in the early 1990s’ moment. After all, the Germans will still need Russian gas for heat even if they’re much older and poorer.
Go to Amazon and buy this:
“Unrestricted Warfare: China’s Master Plan to Destroy America”
Read. Discuss.
Questions?
My family’s from old Scottish stock which has been living in the Appalachian areas of Virginia since before there was a United States. We’re the people Jim Webb chronicled in his writings on the Scotch-Irish contribution to American culture. I was a big fan of the man back then for this, and for his writings regarding the Vietnam experience.
Then he turned traitor and carpet-bagged a Senate seat away from George Allen, a man who was in touch with southern Virginia sensibilites. Webb was not and is not. His campaign was a creature of some very left-wing northern Virginia anti-war Democrats. The campaign was amazingly nasty, featuring the WaPo in a sustained bind rage attack mode against Allen for every conceivable thing, from having a Jewish mother to saying the word “mukaka”.
Webb cynically played up his Reagan Administration credentials during the election, even though he was taking positions that would (and did) make Hanoi Jane proud. Everything he had to say about Vietnam turned out to be a sham. He betrayed it all as he sided with the very activists he had professed to despise. It became clear to me why the Gipper fired him years ago. He must have realized Webb is not to be trusted.
Allen’s reaction to the very close election was not to call for a recount but to bow out gracefully citing a need for faith in public elections. Webb’s first act after being sworn in was to threaten President Bush personally at a meet ‘n greet the White House arranged with the incoming legislators. Robert E. Lee spun in his grave.
Webb voted for Obamacare, and for most items of the liberal Democratic agenda.
He’s a TWANLOC. Dead to me. I can’t stand the fact that that man is my Senator.
Thankfully he’s not running again, probably because he’s widely dispised everywhere outside of the liberal salons of northern Virginia, to which he is a pet.
I have little doubt that the reason he’s focusing on this issue is to rehabilitate the Fightn’ Jim Webb image, Reagan’s Secretary of the Navy, the one he cynically traded on even as he betrayed it.
One interesting aspect of this crisis is that it can potentially unite China’s neighbors and allow the United States to act by proxy by selling naval supplies to China’s neighbors. We should be willing to take the lead when necessary, but we should refrain from taking the lead when we don’t need to. The United States can provide logistical and diplomatic support, but this is a situation where Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Japan need to take the lead.
By the way, how is Taiwan doing in terms of naval armament?
The CPC only allows one party member to be a part of the PLA military supreme council. (except recently when the new guy was put in contemporaneous with Hu during a period of transition.) Presumably the reason for this was so that the one party guy who held a seat at the military supreme council would direct the military and consolidate power over all the rest of the party. That is, no other party guy could wield military power.
However, this this also means that the one party member is way outvoted on the supreme military council. It would be easy to see how the one party member would become a captive of the supreme military council.
This means that the chances of china being brought progressively under the control of the military as Japan was after 1890 (until 1945)–or so increases. Some have argued that this has already happened.
It is very important that the Chinese military lose the south china sea business and the CPC increase its seats on the military supreme council.
Otherwise the trajectory of the world over the next several decades will be simliar to that of the world in the decades prior to the Imperial Japanese Army/Navy launched their adventures.
The MSM has rendered itself illegitimate – it is also mum about Gunrunner – a high crime far more devastating in its implications, legally, politically, morally, and lethally, than anything related to Watergate…
800 F22s and we own the air.
Move ballistic missle defense and strategic bombardment into orbit.
1600 F35s and about 400 turboprop A1 Skyraiders will provide global
lower-level fire support.
Rebuild Military Airlift Command
Keep 3 to 4 Naval Task Forces on patrol in each hemisphere
This is not as expensive as it sounds, not with orbiting major fire support.
Expand ground forces to 6 million. 1/3 Regulars 2/3s Reserves. A few heavy-duty ACRs will be needed, the rest light infantry/cavalry and Snake Eaters.
This will let us be the necxessary dominant force eveywhere on the planet.
And yes, we can too afford to do it all alone. Be prepared to do so and THEN others can be persuaded to do their part as well.
If PRC objects, just whisper “Ridgway” in their ears. They will understand.
The countries that the US has been waging war in, like Iraq and Afghanistan, do not lend the US any money and do not supply the US with oil …
On the other hand, the US borrows lots of money from China.
I think I can see where this is going.
EP3-E;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P3_Orion
Scroll down, there is a list of variants.
I’m not worried about China. They have fought almost a dozen small wars in the last 50 years and only won once. That was against India and it is still disputed who really won that battle.
Navies are mostly about tradition. China doesn’t even HAVE a Navy. They have a Peoples Army Navy. Not the same thing. anybody that thinks a bunch of ship equals a navy needs to drive over Tampa Bay on the skyline one nice June day. LOTS of ships, boats and watercraft. No navy. As Secretary of the Navy, Mr. Webb voted present a lot.
The thing that bothers me is that along with the other armed services, the Navy is short on funding and the funding looks to be getting even smaller. Given the number of theaters it has to operate in and worry about things could get dangerous in the future. At this minute China is not all that worrisome to me but the minutes pass. From what I reading a number of countries are shedding dollars and Euros for gold reserves. China is one of those countries. So in the future they could afford to outspend the US if the US doesn’t get its economic house in order. You need gold for guns……and ships.
It’s not a question of them threatening the mainland, it’s a question of them being able to use their navy to exert influence in WestPac. A combination of the increases in their capability, and the decreases in our capability, and will. It absolutely is something to be concerned about.
“Climate scientists need protection from pirates
Posted on July 18, 2011 by Anthony Watts
From the truth is stranger than fiction department…
Scientists ask for escort in Indian Ocean due to pirates
From the Independent By Roger Maynard in Sydney
Scientists are seeking the help of the Australian and US navies to repel Somali pirates who are threatening one of the world’s key climate monitoring programmes.
Continue reading →”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/
5. Walt
“No, if the Chinese navy ever leaves port with hostile intent, they will very quickly become permanent residents of the bottom of the South China Sea.”
Sir, I wish I could agree with you!
However, the Chinese are not looking to fight navy against navy on the high seas. Their focus is neutralizing our ability to project power using full spectrum warfare. They don’t have to field a carrier battle group and send waves of dive bombers at our carrier off of Midway (though they are now completing their first carrier, the refurbished Soviet Varyag). They merely need to use prevent our carriers from approaching Taiwan during their invasion, and they win.
To this wit, they are focused on cyber warfare, espionage, anti satellite systems, and area denial weapons like anti ship cruise and ballistic missiles. Their new stealth “fighter” is likely a ASCM delivery truck. This is in addition to the implied threat to stop buying our debt, which is really a double edged sword for them.
They could lose their own Navy doing it, but if they blind our fleet or sink a carrier it is the end of an era for the US Navy, and the rise of a red sun in the east. You remember how Israel massively decimated Hizballah positions in South Lebanon in 2006, and it was a win for Hizballah, which is now larger and stronger than before? The Chinese do.
Also, we are looking weak on multiple axes – economic stagnation, currency depreciation, spineless leadership… the PLAN sees blood in the water and won’t care how glorious our naval tradition is once the missiles start flying. See also:
http://defensetech.org/2011/07/13/the-navys-readiness-woes/
I give half a cheer to my Senator James Webb. The reason it’s a mere half cheer is that I doubt his motiviation has anything to do with US national interests. He wife is Vietnamese so remember that the next time he rants about the Israel lobby.
“but if they blind our fleet or sink a carrier it is the end of an era for the US Navy, and the rise of a red sun in the east.”
Sorry Jay, but that statement is irrational. Stop, take a deep breath and hold it. Now release and take another.
The Chinese are NOT the only folks that can take the indirect approach.
How will they Blind our fleet? Remember, if the Diplos and Pols let things get to the point where the Chi-Coms are trying to blind our fleet(s), then other assets will come into play. While I have my doubts about the Army, the Air Farce will share intel with the Navy. Just to spite the Army if no other reason.
A Navy is mostly Tradition. Ships and men, like politicians come and go. The sea is eternal (actually 2.5 billion more years, which is close enough for our purpose).
Take your Chinese so called stealth platform. Any one with the slightest knowledge of Air Power knows that 90% of warplanes are destroyed on the ground. If things get to the point where the Chi-Coms are stalking CV battle groups, then the air fields will become smoking craters. China has 1 (one) modern fighter. It is being used as a test bed. The rest of the Peoples Liberation Army Air Force is obsolete. Came off the assembly line that way. Navy Pilots go to sleep dreaming of fighting the PLAAF and wake up with sticky sheets, sporting wood.
China is a paper Dragon. The last time the PLAAF meet the US Navy in the air, a clapped out, 30 year old patrol plane knocked down a top line PLAAF fighter.
Do you really think the PLAAF will do any better against Super Hornets?
The F-14 is superior to anything in the PLAAF inventory.
They better hurry. Eventually, some Admiral will figure it out and the Carriers will get new flight decks tough enough to handle an F-35 and then the Chi-Coms will be 2 (two) generations of fighters behind. An F-35 in VTOL mode melts the flight deck with it’s exhaust. Righht now the Navy is trying to work around that by lowering the temp of the Exhaust. They are working against the Laws of Physics, and not making much headway. Replacing or reinforcing Flight decks is expensive and will take CV out of the OOB for a few years while it is done, but at least it is possible. NO altering the Laws of Physics needed to replace a flight deck. This is mostly Webb’s fault. The original design specifications were written under Webb. He is responsible for not testing to see if the flight decks would be strong enough.
Their (Chi-Coms) EW isn’t good enough to get a missile through the screen of a CVBG.
No need to panic. Webb is just trying to drum up business for the MIC.
Webb does have a point about allocation of resources. It’s a big planet anf 74% of it is water. The US Navy doesn’t have enough ships. That is the Navy’s fault. Mr, Webb’s to be precise.
All the money that was wasted on the LCS is now coming home to roost.
What should be done is out source the contract for light combatants to South Korea. They make the best <10,000 ton warship afloat.
Since the US cannot build a real light combatant, buy from the ROK's. Or the Japs.
Stoicheion,
At the rate things are going, very soon the U.S. will not have the assets to compete locally with the PRC.
“Their (Chi-Coms) EW isn’t good enough to get a missile through the screen of a CVBG”
For the U.S. to be close enough for carrier air to be effective against them, the volume of missiles that they could send, the relatively small number of assets in a BG and AAW missiles they carry, yes they are good enough to get through the screen.
Alexis – “Why call it the “South China Sea”? Why not call it something else”
We can call it Eastern East Atlantica, Western West Pacifica or maybe North Eastern India Ocean. There, no more China.
Ex Helo – “It’s not a question of them threatening the mainland, it’s a question of them being able to use their navy to exert influence in WestPac. A combination of the increases in their capability, and the decreases in our capability, and will.”
I am not so sanguine about the Chinese either. NEVER underestimate your enemy. The Chinese could calculate that the high seas are too vulnerable to make much of an investment there. They could keep task forces at bay with barrages of anti-shipping weapons and use their nascent navy to distribute their capability around littoral waters, possibly maintaining a landing force. You don’t counter your opponents castle b y building a bigger one right next to it.
blert@9: “Default by Uncle Sam is like the Sun winking out.”
Money systems always come to an end. Afterwards, the population of Earth lives on, and, in most cases, does rather well.
Your comparison with sunout (which would SUCK) is overwrought.
stoicheon @ 33: The way to sink a CVBG is with nukes, delivered by ballistic missiles. I have thought since the “USSR – Fulda Gap; surge CVBG through the GUIK gap” scenario that that is how the era of the CVBG would end. No state would accept the presence of in-theater CVBGs if they could be erased, and no US President would retaliate on population centers for a successful attack on a purely military target. The problem for China is target acquisition, I’m sure that’s one of their main goals in space.
Annoy M :” NEVER underestimate your enemy.”
Words that should sum up our defense policy, but unfortunately don’t.
There are too many Republicans and conservatives who say we can’t afford our overseas military presence, yet they forget that without that dominant military presence our Reserve Nation monetary status wouldn’t be worth a hill of beans. And that Reserve Currency status is the difference in our economic situation between us and the PIIGS.
Mr. Webb is a bit late to the debate. Could the admiral have just realized his party is in favor of moving from a 600 ship navy to 60? And that they don’t know that stimulus is always best spent on military programs?? – as compared to shoveling dirt from one pile to another.. with teaspoons.. aka high speed rail, massive public works at 4x private business prices and wages, not allowing decayed industry to be recycled in two of the big three in Detroit, not forcing speculative investors (including those who bought claimed AAA instruments) to take haircuts, and not allowing prices to be reset by markets, v.fiat.
J @ 31: You remember how Israel massively decimated Hizballah positions in South Lebanon in 2006, and it was a win for Hizballah, which is now larger and stronger than before? The Chinese do.
Yet in five years Hizboolah has not launched another attack, given their ideology that does not suggest a win.
It may be that Israel won on all scorecards, on points. They did attack infrastructure behind the lines. Even in Hizboolah-land, that hurts. And China has a wholeofalot more infrastructure to attack, than Hizboolah/Lebanon ever did.
Israel *did* manage to kill most of the big missiles in 2006 before they could be launched. I doubt they would do as well today – far more targets, and rather more paranoid. Israel might get 95% and still get hit with dozens. OTOH one hopes Israel would do much better against the bunkers than they did in 2006. Not going to be a rerun of the last war, and perhaps that’s the lesson to learn.
Could the Chinese actually be so deluded as to provoke the US and/or it neighbors in the Western Pacific into a hot conventional war? Look at the possible downsides:
the war may not stay conventional, once tactical nukes are used, the consequences could rise to “Three Conjectures” territory. Second, the economic consequences of a total ban by the US on any product manufactured in China being allowed to be imported and sold in the US. (Can China’s manufacturing sector stand this for even a short period of time?). Third, how long can the Chinese economy last without imported fossil/fuel energy. How are those super-tankers filled with ME oil going to get across the Indian Ocean, when USN fast attack submarines are firing high speed torpedoes into their hulls? And that natural-gas pipeline running from Central Asia to China, how long would it last once Predator drones start firing Hellfire missiles at it?
If the Chinese are willing to risk this kind of downside in order to throw around their weight in the Western Pacific, then both we and they have got major problems. Of course with a coward (and possible Marxist Traitor) in the White House, we have a major problem anyway.
“Default by Uncle Sam is like the Sun winking out. ”
Maybe to the financial side but I’ll still eat.
Blert, those up to their neck ib a swamp tend to see the world in swampy terms. Those whose rice bowel is the Financial markets tend to think the Finance is the end all be all of the Universe (an Obama complex). It isn’t.
If wall street vanished tomorrow, along with every other money market on the planet, life would go on. It would just be different. The current economic system does an almost adequate job of keeping people whole and hearty. When it ceases to do that it will be replaced. Supply and Demand. So long as there is a demand for Financial services, somebody will supply them. If the current system fails, another will take it’s place.
Not a big deal to me, since I’m as prepared as possible. I have food, weapons, gold, a place to hold out and friends to stand with me. Life will go on. It just won’t be the same life.
If you aren’t prepared, why not? The impending collapse of the current world order has been predicted here at the BC since ’06 at least. Now that the light at the end of the tunnel can be seen as a speeding locomotive, it’s a little late for vapors.
Are you really betting on the Bernake getting his 21st coin toss to come up heads?
I’m not. If it does, will you stick around for coin toss 22?
I figured out the toss thangie was rigged about toss 8. So then the question became when to opt out. You staying in means your balls drag the sidewalk on the way to Starbucks. Make a nice change purse when Bernake decides to end the game.
Or when the banks get run and Junk Bond Ben is left holding his two headed coin in one hand and his barrel in the other.
re: Webb as admiral (not). My mistake. Webb was a Marine Lieutenant who earned the Navy Cross while in Vietnam. However he was the Secretary of the Navy who promoted a 600 ship navy, who later resigned in protest in 1988 when told to reduce the size of the Navy.
bell curve,
“Could the Chinese actually be so deluded as to provoke the US and/or it neighbors in the Western Pacific into a hot conventional war?”
No, what they will do is continue to increase their military capabilities, as our ability and willingness to project power in that region declines. And they will periodically test our (and the western Pacific nations) resolve by pushing the edge of the envelope to see how we react. And at some point they will judge that the margin between us and them is such that they can take more significant action.
Even though it’s become a hackneyed cliche, it is true that when you owe the bank $100K you have a problem, but when you owe the bank $500 Billion, they have a problem. We buy stuff from China with dollars. They have a limited range of options: a. buy our debt (public and private) and earn interest (paid in dollars), b. buy our stuff or c. sell our dollars on the open market for other assets. Technically, they have one more option, they could quit selling us stuff. Since the Chinese have opted for a sort of neo-mercantilist economic policy, not selling us stuff is off the table. Some may define our current economic woes as a “crisis of capitalism”, but the more interesting thing economists will be studying in 20 or 30 years is “what went wrong with China”. History teaches that central planning, even central planning with free market trappings always succumbs to Hayek’s “information problem”. Just ask the Japanese, who created a free market economy administered with “nudges” by the national bureaucracy.
As the sole issuer of currency, the US government is not subject to the same constraints as the members of the EU. In fact, the US government does not need to borrow money, we can create more dollars. The purpose of bond sales is to indirectly manage the supply of money and interest rates.
That is not to say that creating more dollars does not lead to problems. The risk we have is not that the bond market won’t buy our debt, the risk is that our currency will lose value relative to other currencies and assets. Post WWI Austria and Germany are examples of what can happen if the government does not safeguard the relative value of its currency. Or Zimbabwe, more recently.
Anybody wondering how on earth the global pile of sovereign debt will be settled in lieu of actually paying off principle and interest, damn sure better quit building down the USN. The Mother of All False Economies, that one is.
Something new in the world since the last big war, no defeated naval power will ever rebuild his navy again –no new victor, owning now the ability to read the enemy book as it is being written, will be crazy enough to allow it –again.
So whoever loses the next one, is sunk for good.
If we think it’s tough now, having to spend the effort to stay ahead (or even at par), just wait ’til we no longer have the choice –wait ’til we can’t hold par, no matter what we want to choose.
Buddy/47
Welcome back
W: ‘Cruelty is perhaps the first cousin to self-love. It may even be its child, requiring, as George Eliot put it, “no motive outside itself … only … opportunity.”’
Just another of your little throw-away brilliant insights. Wow.
21. Cowboy
Webb ran out on his “so called conservative roots” much the same way that McCain rules as a flaiming liberal in office and runs as Attila the Hun during campaigns. He clearly knows the difference – too bad those that voted for him are part of the problems we face today.
To paraphrase George C. Scott in “Patton” – “McCain, you lying bastard, I read your book (Faith of My Fathers)!”
McCain is one of my Navy colleagues, and after reading his book some years ago, he made clear his amazing ability to rationalize his conduct at the Naval Academy, saying he was proud to have graduated at the bottom and that he did so to maintain his “honor.”
Balderdash. He was gifted a ticket to the Academy because his dad was an admiral and he discredited himself (and his family) in his tenure there because he epitomized the moniker service “brat.” The fact that he presented himself as some sort of “hero” and pillar of integrity and honor in his book only predates the spectacle of deceit he proudly wraps himself in today.
Thanks, Walt –mind if i critique your strong prose above? The brass at Pearl Harbor that morning were no less a part of the USN culture and tradition, and it did not help them against a new sort of attack; it may have hindered them. Well it DID hinder them, on the face of it. Also, “Damn the Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead” Farragut was storming Mobile Bay, in Alabama (my birth state, of all the nerve!).
Other than that, Mrs Lincoln enjoyed the play –
It is notable, in my mind, that the navy guy who championed flattops back in the late 1920s and early 1930s demonstrated with a converted battle cruiser or something (converted to a flattop) and maybe one more just how devastating such an attack could be …
See here on USS Saratoga: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Saratoga_%28CV-3%29
Note the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor that the Japanese seem to have copied (monkey see monkey do).
…from there, way up the policy ladder, all the way down to it being a Sunday morning in home port the AA guns were significantly under-manned.
buddy/51
You are correct. Shows the danger of publishing draft copy without fact checking.
mbm/52
The first carrier in the US Navy was the Langley, converted from a collier, later a seaplane tender. The second was the Ranger, also converted from a collier, and the third and fourth the Saratoga and Lexington, converted from already laid down battle cruisers destined for the scrap heap under the terms of the Washington Naval Treaty of 1922. In addition to the successful surprise attacks by Sara on the Panama canal and Pearl Harbor, the Brits successfully attacked Taranto in 1940, so the navy had plenty of experience with surprise attacks by carrier based air. I have not read Samuel Eliot Morison’s monumental 15 volume United States Naval Operations In World War II in fifty years, so my memory may be faulty, but iirc his conclusion was that Kimmel and Short had too much information due to breaking the Japanese code, and believed that the scale of Japanese operations in Southeast Asia would require the inclusion of the Jap carriers. If that is the case, then neither negligence, stupidity, or a battleship mindset was responsible for the successful Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.
That is interesting for many reasons.
The motto of the Scouts is Be prepared. It would seem that that motto was not observed at Pearl Harbor or Dien Bien Phu … in my mind that looks like negligence. However, a peacetime navy is probably a different animal to a wartime navy.
However, all of those pieces of info are very interesting. I only hope that if I am ever placed in such a position I can discern the unpredictable things the enemy will do.
“to betray, you must first belong. I never belonged.”
I remember that Philby quote. FWIW: we now have a President who “never belonged.”
Just saying . . .
Walt…
You’d be very entertained by reading the memoirs of Jocko Clark…
http://www.jacklummus.com/Files/Files_R/rear_admiral_joseph_james_jocko_clark.htm
He spent the last half of the Pacific Campaign as the head of 58.1 — of which many, many naval records still stand.
It was Jocko who ‘picked’ most of the airports/airstrips in Hawaii. ( one weekend of arial photos, yes the airports are still there. )
His commentary WRT the prospect of Japanese carrier based strikes against Hawaii are most apt.
I also recommend Stinnett’s Day of Deceit ( go with the trade back, most recent copy )
The other super-significant actor in the Pacific was Eric Nave.
While the authors throw brickbats at each other…
The fact is BOTH story lines are true.
China is floating its own version of the Monroe Doctrine and has –on paper –aspirations to dominate the First Island Chain and later the Second Island Chain–in rhetoric.
The reality is China would face the combined overwhelming naval power of USA, Japan, S Korea and Taiwan.
Also-Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff just got back from a comprehensive visit to Chinas key nuclear, naval and air-force facilities.
Webb is just trying to change the subject from his own recent incompetence–too little too late.
Chinas current interest is in working with the USA
1/ to keep shipping and freetrade routes open and free of piracy
2/ to stop the spread of Islamist terrorism across its borders from Afghanistan.
In 10 to 20 years the USA could face military threats from China
–but by that time China will have
1/ too many old people
2/ be internally fragmented
3/ have 60 million excess young males-who will be gangsters and violent Hells Angels raiding N Korea for rape and ” comfort women ”
–horrible–but not a strategic threat to US interest
Chinas fate is that it will get old before it gets rich
Vietnam is facing conflict with China over energy resources within the First Island Chain–but it will be settled by commerce not violence
I’ve long predicted that the US would resolve its debt to China by inflation. It has always been the easy way out for politicians.
I generally agree with most of Victor’s points but even an aging China will have more men of military age than any military competitor except perhaps India.
The eternal cycle of Chinese history is unity/disunity. How long the Communists can hold the current political structure together is a guess but they are have not mastered history (nor economics nor politics) by any shot. A coming epoch of Warring States is not hard to visualize.
…to buttress Walt’s position, prior to the first bomb falling on Pearl, there was no war on –we were at peace with Japan. Not so the Swordfish attack on the Italians, and N/A re the Canal war games.
Victor, hope you’re right. Seeing as how the convo is including bits and pieces of Pearl Harbor, you’re brave to eschew the occasional ‘in my opinion’.
The status-quo of the Western Pacific is not going to be sustainable with a continually rising China and stagnant United States.
China is going to keep pushing until the region and the USA negotiate a new status-quo that properly reflects the realities of Chinese power.
http://hotair.com/archives/2011/07/18/plurality-ready-for-significant-military-cuts/
Buddy,
” there was no war on –we were at peace with Japan”
It was pretty clear that we were very close to war with Japan. Bottom line is that they were caught completely flatfooted. They underestimated the Japanese, big time.
buddy – Are you still receiving email? Just askin’.
Guys, look for the book All the Factors of Victory: Adm. Joseph Mason Reeves and the Origins of Carrier Air Power
Paperback: 336 pages
Publisher: Potomac Books Inc. (October 7, 2005)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1574884867
ISBN-13: 978-1574884869
Shipping Weight: 1 pounds
Available at Amazon.com
Reeves graduated from the USNaval Academy just a couple of years before the Spanish-American war, got experience early on helping the “black gang” during a high speed run to get to Cuban waters in time to participate. Later he worked out solutions to bad designs in the ordnance delivery mechanisms for the casemates; improved designs and procedures for aiming the guns, and generally made a name for himself in the fleet firing exercises. He was (IIRC) a commander of the collier Jupiter BEFORE it was converted to become the Langley, then was later chosen to command the same ship in its new life, possibly because of his record of success with that ship.
Again, if I recall correctly, Reeves was the commissioning commander of the Jupiter, which had been designed as a test platform for the Navy’s newest electric motor drives.
As Admiral, Reeves was the one who established the basic plane-handling procedures that brought the tempo of deck and hangar operations to a level needed for the needs of modern naval warfare. He also demonstrated several times how the carrier forces by themselves were enough to mount a successful surprise attack on a strategic target traditionally thought to be inassailable.
The book is pretty comprehensive and very readable.
I’m just a dilettante myself, and Buddy’s dire assessment appeals, but I tend to be a little more optimistic about the qualities of US military personnel, maybe because my brother and I are Navy brats whose dad served in WWII. Actually, he enlisted early enough to serve on the Battleship Tennessee right out of boot camp, sleeping in a hammock suspended in one of the casemates. He was an Aviation Chief Ordnanceman on the Hornet (CV-8) helping to launch the Doolittle raid. We have his Navy Cross — the Black Widow — in its frame in a place of honor in our house, awarded for his actions the day the Hornet was sunk in the battle off the Santa Cruz Islands.
Thank God, the guy never made a big deal about his heroism, or the burden of trying to “live up to his example” could have been crushing… But over the years I’ve had many chances to reflect on his service and that of millions of others who have put themselves in harm’s way, and it makes me realize that there is a charge placed on me to be ready to stand.
But when you’re not one who ever swore an oath to the Constitution, and who has not lived under the UCMJ, it’s really hard to work out the practical questions, and link up with like-minded folks.
Hmmmm. That’s kinda why I read and post here.
Just trying to get a handle on things.
Worlds in worlds in every sentence, fiddler –plenty handle seems like. That famous photo of dying Hornet –crew abandoning ship directly into the sea –was in a book of dad’s i used to try to read as a little kid –i remember wondering why we didn’t just quit and go home after a ship that size got sunk. Come to think of it, i still wonder –knowing now how brutally destructive to both navies those Guadalcanal Campaign sea battles were.
Walt, yessir, i just got behind and haven’t caught up –daughters getting married, having babies, moving here to there –three different ones, not the same one! –the last couple three months –can’t take happy times, they profoundly depress and i fall out of the net –LOL –i’ll dig back and see what i missed –
Buddy, my life has been blessed repeatedly, and I finally realized it ain’t because I deserve it, but because GOD loves us. All we can do is try to do our best. I fall down all the time letting myself feel anger and contempt for people who are imperfect in different ways from my faults.
Some of the stories that stick with me from childhood are from Sunday School – Jews and Christians widely separated in time, if not in spirit. Captives who when ordered by their Masters to renounce their GOD refused, and bravely went to their deaths singing praises. Yeee-ow. Remember the Fox news commentator and cameraman kidnapped a few years back by Muslim poopheads in Lebanon? They were given the choice of renouncing their Christian faith, under threat of death. They did it, and I can’t fault them. But the Muslims, especially the fanatics, take that as clear evidence that we Westerners, Christians in particular, value NOTHING as worth risking our lives to defend.
I don’t want to prick anyone for having persistent profound questions about religion and faith.
I just don’t understand how anyone can think they’re smart enough to claim they’ve figured out the whole universe and how it came to be.
“and believed that the scale of Japanese operations in Southeast Asia would require the inclusion of the Jap carriers”
That estimate was based on the range of the pre-zero fighter. The Zero had the range to fly down from Okinawa, fight over The PI then fly home.
The Zero allowed the Japs to use their carriers to attack Pearl.
Victor, I get queasy when I agree with you but I do. by the end of the century both America and China will be 2nd rate powers. Both nations are eating their seed corn by murdering unborn children. Children ARE the future. When a nation destroys them, it destroys that nations future.
–different-sized universes, fiddler. Make yours small enough –say, heroin –and you CAN understand all of it, easily. Or like what Fred Sanford told Lamont when Lamont had a new scheme that was gonna ‘put us on Easy Street’: “Easy Street,” he said, “…that’s where the po’ house is located!”
Some no-nonsense universes.
There are some conspiracy theories out there:
http://modernhistoryproject.org/mhp?Article=FinalWarning&C=6.3
33. stoicheion
I knew I’d get a good response from Navy!
It’s now irrational after you spend way too many hours poring over reports on PLA planning and think tank write ups of what they are working on and how they could use it against us.
When I say “blind” our fleet I refer to their projects to disable satellite links, C3, and radar systems on our ships. Certainly we are much better at EW, they are probably better at hacking, and we both have tested ASAT systems. They are working really hard on hacking our military. They are also working hard on antiship missiles, including a guided ballistic missile. They love the idea of a US CSG in the S China sea that can’t talk to the rest of our fleet or see incoming ASMs. Do you think our fearless leaders in Washington are going to send a CSG that can’t reliably detect and defend against incoming missiles to defend Taiwan?
“The F-14 is superior to anything in the PLAAF inventory.” Agreed, and we retired it in 2006! As I wrote before, they know that ship to ship we wipe the floor with them, and they know plane to plane the same raw deal. They aren’t trying to build better planes to match us air to air, but are focused on developing tools to keep our carrier aircraft to far away to be useful. Their stealth fighters don’t need to dogfight our F-18s, and can’t. They just get within ASCM range of the CVBG/CSG. Then it’s a numbers game – how many SM2 in the CSG and how many missiles can they get off? (and they know we can’t reload our VLS underway). We can shoot down every incoming until we run dry, but they have home court advantage and thousands of missiles. And it will take exactly one hit on a CV for the current crop of politicians to start demanding we abandon Taiwan.
Bottom line is, to ‘win’ (defend Taiwan or other island chain) we would need to be able and willing to bomb thousands of airfields, radars, missile sites, AD, and ports on the Chinese coast. That means we will lose aircraft and there will be civilian deaths on the ground, and the UN will start whining.
We also need to destroy PLA resupply going to Taiwan and attack their positions on Taiwan, and probably send in Marines. And we would not have advance warning to build up our forces, and will probably have 2-5 days before Taiwan surrenders to accomplish all that. All they have to do is scare Washington, and we keep our carriers to far away to do the above (and how many refueling planes per CVW again?) And they get the first move.
Agreed about physics and the LCS.
Never underestimate the ability of the enemy to come up with out-of-the box thinking.
Eg, an affirmative action push in all branches of the US military, reaching all the way up the officer chain … could have interesting consequences.
http://issa.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=597&Itemid=73
Darrell Issa’s contact page –where one can offer a thanks for his Horatio-at-the-Bridge performance in this congress.
***
MBM/71, good gravy –it reads like history –no words spent on motive analysis –if the hard data is correct (if it IS history) –well, after Amity Schlaes old FDR is pretty much exposed anyway, i think.
Give Japan about 100 nuclear bombs.
Problem solved.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jul/18/liberals-see-opportunity-for-big-cuts-in-defense/
Cuts in defense in Constantinople must have seemed like a good idea too, given that there were more pressing problems.
…and they never even found the last king’s body. The Turk was not ‘spose to have a giant long-range cannon, but he did. And so it is Istanbul forever. The most beautiful church in all Christendom, Hagia Sophia, now a commercial venue selling souvenirs and such.
15. Alexis
betrayed by the Brits isn’t new for us !
they also allowed Germany to get re-armed in 1935
“Following the discussions described in the documents, the British Foreign Secretary, Anthony Eden, did indeed meet the German ambassador and make his proposals. Hitler refused to withdraw his troops, and put pressure on the League of Nations to act. France was on the verge of a general election and would not act without Britains support. However the British people felt that In 1935 the Treaty had been successfully defied by the German announcement of rearmament and the introduction of a military draft: the Treaty’s guarantors–Britain and France–merely condemned the unilateral German actions. Worse still, Britain separately concluded a naval pact with Hitler that same year allowing Germany to build a battle-fleet that included submarines–a British validation of Treaty violations!”
http://conservativepartyarchive.blogspot.com/2010/06/75-years-ago-todaythe-anglo-german.html
18. Mr. X
don’t trust germanz promises and talks, they are givin corn to the donkeys !
these people didn’t/don’t change their mentality for such a short period !