Jerusalem was the scene of Palestinian riots expressing outrage over the reopening of a synagogue which had been destroyed by Jordanian forces in 1948 war and in the aftermath of a US rebuke of Israel for building settlements in East Jerusalem. The incidents were “part of a ‘Day of Rage’ called for by Palestinian leaders in response to the recent reopening of a historic synagogue in the Old City.”
Though the U.S. had been engaged in a high-profile dispute with the Israel government over a proposed 1,600-unit housing settlement in a disputed neighborhood of Jerusalem, the protests in recent days have stemmed from the reopening of the Hurva synagogue, which was destroyed by Jordanian forces in the 1948 Arab-Israeli war.
The BBC described Jerusalem as a “tinder-box”. “Palestinians at the scene gave a range of reasons for their anger, but there was one common theme – a growing feeling that they are being squeezed out of Israeli-occupied East Jerusalem, where they want the capital of their future state.”
“This government is not like any other government that has governed Israel, they want to ignite everything.”
“Every time they talk about peace, the answer from the Israeli government is more buildings [in East Jerusalem] and more closures,” said Rida Zamamiri, 25, also watching the clashes.
The Guardian says that the US has been given an opportunity to prove it can get tough on Israel. It quoted Hillary Clinton as saying she expected Israel to back down and offer concessions to the Palestinians to entice them to the negotiating table. “The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, today demonstrated a new-found steeliness towards Israel by making it clear she was expecting it to back down in the row between the two countries and offer concessions needed for a resumption of Middle East peace talks.” Israel, said Clinton according to the AP, had to prove its commitment to peace. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu retorted that “the government of Israel has proved its commitment to peace in the last year in words and in deeds.”
The Times of London says that “for the first time there are voices questioning Israel’s strategic value”. Reuters says that the US-Israeli “bitter public spat” has thrown a monkey wrench into Clinton’s plans. Washington has publicly stated it expects Israel to eat humble pie — and give President Obama what he wants. “Analysts said the Obama administration wants to quell the dispute — Clinton on Tuesday stressed the “absolute” U.S. commitment to Israel’s security — while still extracting concessions from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.” Otherwise the future talks will be derailed.
Clinton leaves on Wednesday for a 36-hour visit built around a meeting of the quartet of Middle East peace mediators — the European Union, Russia, the United Nations and the United States.
U.S. officials said they had hoped the quartet meeting, scheduled before the housing dispute flared during U.S. Vice President Joe Biden’s trip to Israel last week, would bless the start of the indirect peace talks.
With “rage” in East Jerusalem and “rage” in Washington, Netanyahu must decide whether to cool things down by conceding or up the ante and letting the fire burn.
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It’s all going according to plan.
Enough rioting, a few missiles, and Israel will be legally able to attack Hamas and Hezbollah.
The day that is done, they post on the Syrian border and make the hit on Iran – and Hamas and Hezbollah’s big threat to tell the Palestinians to cut loose with their missiles will be meaningless.
I think what’s happened is far simpler. The US has embarked on two processes, the containment of Iran and the engagement of Iran (flip sides of the same coin), and success in either requires the cooperation of the Arab world.
Whether we are talking about counterinsurgency, interrogating rendered prisoners, or funding proxies, the axis of the administration’s efforts now runs through Arab capitals. Israel has now become the junior partner in Middle East. America, having stepped fully into the shoes abandoned by the British in the Middle East long ago, have just acquired an Arab constituency. That is the fundamental problem for Israel.
Despite the assurances that the American commitment to Israel’s security is absolute, the fact it must be uttered so stridently by politicians like “friend of Israel” Biden and “smartest woman in the world” Hillary Clinton probably means that it is not. What liberals neglected to consider, when they abandoned the Freedom Agenda, is that without it, Israel and the ideas it represents would become less and less important. Having sold democracy down the tubes, it was inevitable that the suction would pull more into the drain. Given the trends, how long before Israel is disposable? To the power of oil and demography must now be added political convenience of pandering to an Arab constituency.
Those who trusted in Obama failed to see that his eventual political interests would not lie with theirs.
When will Joe Biden learn to stop talking whenever other people can hear him?
for the first time there are voices questioning Israel’s strategic value
That from the Times of London, which is owned by the same News Corporation that owns Fox in America and has as its second largest investor the Saudi Prince al-Taweed.
There are voices now questioning America’s strategic value.
This was brilliant on the Israeli part. The Arabs riot over the reconstruction of a house of worship that the Jordanians destroyed in a war crime. The Arabs stand unabashedly with the legacy of hate that used the Jewish grave stones on the Mount of Olives to line latrines. This has nothing to do with housing or property rights and that lie is shredded. This explosion of violence, like the violence over Rachel’s Tomb, is about the islamic effort to eradicate the memory that anyone may have of a prior claim to anywhere that they have declared ex cathedra to be Dar al-Islam. The Israelis can now announce that they are starting an emergency mission to rescue threatened religious sites. They can move into Bethlehem, where Palestinian gunmen once desecrated the Church of the Holy Sepulchre. They can even move to eject the Islamic Waqf from its control over the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.
Chesterton thought America was going to the dogs 100 years ago, but his words THEN seem more apropos NOW:
It may be said with rough accuracy that there are three stages in the life of a strong people. First, it is a small power, and fights small powers. Then it is a great power, and fights great powers. Then it is a great power, and fights small powers, but pretends that they are great powers, in order to rekindle the ashes of its ancient emotion and vanity. After that, the next step is to become a small power itself. England exhibited this symptom of decadence very badly in the war with the Transvaal; but America exhibited it worse in the war with Spain. There was exhibited more sharply and absurdly than anywhere else the ironic contrast between the very careless choice of a strong line and the very careful choice of a weak enemy. America added to all her other late Roman or Byzantine elements the element of the Caracallan triumph, the triumph over nobody.
Much as in the case of Honduras, the US through Obama and his underlings is playing hardball with targets that it has very little to fear from.
Can’t agree, though I hope you’re right luagha.
Israel should up the ante while it still can, while it still retains support within the US and cause this Obama strategy to be stillborn. If Netanyahu yields, the US will increasingly demand that Israel concede more and more.
Netanyahu needs to say, “I’ve apologized for the unfortunate timing of the settlement announcement but these settlements are being built upon our land, we don’t tell the US where its citizens may build, respect is a street with two sides.
Netanyahu should say, “it’s time for the US to require the Palestinians ‘prove their commitment to peace’ by abandoning their demand for a Palestinian ‘right of return’ to Israel and that Hamas reform its charter so as to eliminate its call for Israel’s destruction.
Until the Palestinians do these two things, they prove beyond question their disinterest in peace.”
Most of all, Israel needs to accept that for the next 3 years it is on its own. It should strengthen its ties with India, a natural partnership and embark upon as much self-sufficiency as possible.
As for the Palestinians, it should announce that in the future it will only engage in talks if the Palestinians agree to pre-conditions. Otherwise, there’s nothing to talk about.
Wretchard in #2, exactly. At best one might accept that the Obama position is to make a great show of being even-handed by strongly berating Israel in this instance. More likely, he attempts to precipitate the end of the current Netanyahu coalition, forcing either a grand coalition or a return to power for Kadima and/or Labor.
Whether that is a naive effort to “solve” the long-standing Israel vs the Arabs series of conflicts while waiting out internal events in Iran, or a simple betrayal of our once ally Israel, remains to be seen. In any event, the outcome will be ugly.
Bizzarly it refused to allow me to add this to my previous comment but it all was meant to be together.
The problem with the American system as outlined by Petreaus, is that it will not work. The betrayal of the non-communist Polish and Yugoslav forces in WW-II was justified by two things. First the compromised relations of some of the Yugoslav Chetniks with the Germans. Second by the need to support the Russians in the face of an existential threat. Both betrayals of recognized allies were of dubious merit given the realities of the time. Certainly the betrayal of the Poles at Yalta was reprehensible.
Neither is analogous to the position of Israel in relation to the Iranians and the Arabs. If during the Cold War we had sacrificed Japan to China to buy support for a strike on the Soviets it would have approached this level of perfidy. The Sunni will pocket our gift and treat us with scorn.
This isn’t even to gain support for an American strike on Iran but to gain support for the Arabs not supporting an Israeli strike and instead choosing an American strategic shield. Given that we have just destroyed the credibility of that shield they would be foolish to be impressed by the offer.
Israel will do what it has done for the last half century – just what it pleases. The “Juan” and his senile father Jose can huff and puff all they want – to no avail. It will all be pro-forma, of course, but in the end there will be substantive changes. Guessing how those changes turn out will be almost worth the price of admission.
@Lifeofthemind – The Church of the Holy Sepulchre is in Jerusalem, not Bethlehem. Perhaps you were thinking of the Church of the Nativity.
“The US has embarked on two processes, the containment of Iran and the engagement of Iran (flip sides of the same coin), and success in either requires the cooperation of the Arab world.
… the axis of the administration’s efforts now runs through Arab capitals. Israel has now become the junior partner in Middle East. America, having stepped fully into the shoes abandoned by the British in the Middle East long ago, have just acquired an Arab constituency. That is the fundamental problem for Israel.”
That is also of course, a fundamental problem for the US and it shall not go any better for us than it did for the Brits.
Plus, we won’t contain Iran, as Russia and China will not allow that containment. Nuclear proliferation is now certain across the M.E. and that won’t end well either.
Whether we are talking about counterinsurgency, interrogating rendered prisoners, or funding proxies, the axis of the administration’s efforts now runs through Arab capitals.
No. Or rather, to the extent that that is true, we are dead meat, walking zombies, before anything has even happened to Israel.
“Arab capitals”, forsooth. Look at the quote I posted from WSJ, that ‘Israel is an impediment to the Saudis putting pressue on China.’ Are you kidding me? The US is a multicultural society of immigrants, we might look at the Saudis with some multiculti charity, not to mention they hold a trillion dollars worth of our bonds. China is an ancient, sophisticated, and insular society. They must look at the Saudis as talking camels, especially given recent Chinese political and economic progress.
Iran is not such an existential threat to the US, that we have any reason to ally ourselves with the likes of Riyadh – except, insofar we might do so for the benefit of Israel. Is a nuclear Iran an existential threat to Saudi Arabia? I cannot make myself care. Can the Saudis really get under the US nuclear umbrella, while also dividing the US from Israel? That might make the likes of Pat Buchanan happy – or he might have a moment of clarity, in which it would even turn the stomach of the likes of him.
Is neo-anti-semite a real word?
As I said in a previous thread (and I hope it was not the proximate cause of the closure of that thread, or this), in game theory, IF this were really a move by the US, I suspect Israel’s best move might be an immediate raising of the ante, up to an including a nuclear one. They might choose not to make this, their best move, but look at the position that would put them in.
At the least, they should get out the bulldozers and start development of the Dome of the Rock golf course and luxury condos.
Just wandering between sub-topics here … if we really need to subordinate our foreign policies to the Wahabis, China will see us as unbelieavably weak, or dead. What they would do then, I presume, is slowly start to liquidate their holdings of our bonds, and use the proceedings to double and redouble their own military strength in preparation for what we should have done, invade and hold the middle east for their own benefit. Hey, might even cause them to make peace with Taiwan in order to have their assistance.
Lifeofthemind @ 4 said:
“They can even move to eject the Islamic Waqf from its control over the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.”
Events will get really “interesting” really fast after the state of Israel opts to begin doing stuff on the Temple Mount.
My guess is the day after the first Islamic nuke gets lobbed at Israel and successfully intercepted is when a Catepillar goes through the walls of the Al-Aqsa Mosque to begin demolition and a foundation stone is laid down for the new Temple of Solomon (the Israelis will have disposed of all of their downside risk).
I’m sort of hoping this happens about two or three hundred years from now (long after I’m dead and forgotten).
With Obama we get the confluence of the two of the most poisonous trends in the world today: Leftism and Islam. The “rage” in Washington is identical to the “rage” among the “Palestinian” Arabs… Like two peas in a deep fried falafel — and after you eat eat, you definitely feel awful.
#5,
Not too much faith should be put in Chesterton’s acumen. If America exhibited its ‘symptom of decadence’ in the war with Spain, how are WWI, WWII and the cold war explained?
Obama’s “transformative” style is to make strategic commitments from which all else follow. By electing to fight in landlocked Afghanistan, by unilaterally dismantling the ability to interrogate prisoners, by choosing a theater in which NATO was a command structure and portraying it as a “war of necessity”, President Obama foreordained a dependence on Pakistan, Arab intelligence agencies, Russia and Europe to prosecute anything. He enmeshed the US in the toils of those who in the end would come to dominate proceedings.
In the process he implied the selection of choices which he wanted to make anyway, only not openly. His choice of strategy eventually ensured it would be Pakistan over India, European multilateralism over American unilateralism, rendition over Guantanamo. He guaranteed Russian influence over the process. And the liberals went along while step by step he led them to shadow of the gallows of their supposed enemies.
President Obama chose to “engage Iran”, knowing that in the end, any process of engagement or even confrontation with Teheran would spell the decline of Israel. If the President understands anything, it is how to quietly misdirect and lay the groundwork for his preferred outcome.
He is doing the same with Healthcare. Healthcare isn’t about medicine. It’s about a transfer of power. Hope and Change. But the Change had no relation to the Hope advertised. “I am a blank canvas on which everyone projects his aspirations.” Sure. Never let an opportunity go to waste, especially an opportunity to hoist people by their own wishful thinking. I think the liberals are beginning to see they’ve been had now. But maybe too late. Just like Molotov-Ribbentrop; they thought there would be a zig when there was in fact a zag.
Only slightly OT the Presbyterian Church USA has recently jumped the shark by commissioning a pro-Palestinian biased “ME Peace” study committee which labored mightily for months and eventually produced a mouse. They began with the assumption Israel was “at fault” and – low and behold – that’s what they proved, too.
The point is its quite obvious our “betters” have recently decided this is the year to somehow force Israel to toe a progressive line. Good luck with that. Don’t expect it to happen. Sort of reminds me of Haman’s plans in the book of Esther. Might have the same end results, too.
Uh huh. So the bamster is hoping to stir up the pot, causing enough noise out of the arabs, that people will “forget” the problems he has at home. Not that he won’t say “he’s got a signed bill in his drawer, already.” Of course. It’s been ‘deemed’ passed.
Believe what you want. I’m sure the bamster thinks the world of Sherlock in Dubai. But a joke is still a joke.
If the President understands anything, it is how to quietly misdirect and lay the groundwork for his preferred outcome.
I still take the optimistic view that no, the president does not understand anything, other than how to get elected by gathering the least intelligent voters to his bandwagon. That he can do that, has done that, is indisputable.
Josh @ 19 said:
“I still take the optimistic view that no, the president does not understand anything, other than how to get elected by gathering the least intelligent voters to his bandwagon.”
I’m with Josh. I don’t think Obama is all that bright. I also suspect that all Obama is really good at is reading the teleprompter and shuckin’-and-jivin’ with the moonbats.
There is no master strategy and that’s why we’re in serious trouble.
Biff,
Thank you corrected on my blog. Stupid mistakes happen when I pretend to know how to type.
What have the Palestinians ever put up as collateral for peace besides their cheap, murderous lives? How is it that they have no stake in a positive outcome but we cater to their whims? This is disgusting really. If we have no stake in freedom and democracy in the ME what is our stake in the Levant? None. I don’t have a problem with a policy of disengagement but if we are to disengage from principles by gosh let us disengage completely. It is low to coddle murderers and the Dems should be ashamed of themselves… but as long as American Jews are the greatest obstacle to peace in Israel maybe it isn’t the Dems who should be ashamed.
…playing hardball with targets that it has very little to fear from.
There’s a word for that. Bully.
Another day, another rage
It’s what the Palis do
You’d think that they would turn the page
And get a job or two
Instead they hang around all day
And mutter, gripe and whine
They think if Jews just go away
Then everything’d be fine
You say to them if Israel
Just left they’d not get fed
There’d be no work and this way will
Not work, but in their head
They think when someone kills the Jews
Then money will flow in
And everyone will get to choose
Whose house he will go in
Which Jewish business he will own
Whose car he’d like to drive
With Jewish riches they’ll have shown
The world that those who strive
To make the good life for themselves
To earn an honest wage
By grabbing stuff from off the shelves
All got by days of rage
Except for a handful of fools promoted far beyond their level of competence, pretty much every major power knows exactly what is going on right now in the Middle East, and probably knows the endgame. The only people in the dark are the ordinary folks, along with the ideologically blinded in the media. Unfortunately, the only source of intel that I have is the media- which means that I am groping blind in the dark. Stalin would observe that I have no divisions, but also that I have no espionage network. I may be a nobody, but I’d like to know what is really going on.
I am not looking forward to the day when I wake up, turn on the news, and have a parade of shocked newsreaders who cannot believe whatever it is that has transpired, and then we switch to some news conference, where government officials inform us that they are shocked, simply shocked about gambling in this establishment. Then they’ll tell us (not in so many words) that they have no plans for how to deal with it, because it is so sudden and unexpected, so they need time to develop an organizational timetable that will allow them to set forward a structure to implement a framework for formal planning operations.
It quoted Hillary Clinton as saying she expected Israel to back down and offer concessions to the Palestinians to entice them to the negotiating table.
Good God, Hillary is only Secretary of State (and more of a poseur at that trade than any other description). She is not the Emperor of Palestine, nor is her boss.
And what’s this rubbish about ‘enticing to the bargaining table’? Translated to English, this means abjectly offering Hamas and the PLO some form of bribe, which they will reject as insufficient. Has the real world ever intruded into the coddled fantasies of Hillary or Obama?
I don’t know if you’re familiar with my Generic Israel/Palestinian Solution(r)?
My basic idea is that there are some conflicts that are unsolvable. This is one of them.
So I’ve spent years working this out…
What we do is evacuate the entire region, Jews and Muslims and Christians and everybody else must get out of the entire “holy land”. Then we build a 20 mile high electric fence that immediately kils anything that touches it around the entire region.
Within the fence, in the baron area, we genetically engineer super sized rhinos that shoot nuclear bombs out of their huge horns at anything that looks like a person. The rhinos themselves are immune to the nuclear bomb.
This will be a permanent structure for the rest of the life of the planet.
Oh, and no one else will be permitted to claim any area of earth as a “holy land” every again.
Or else they will be fed to the nuke shooting rhinos!
*i have patented this idea, fyi*
While I agree Buraq is not very bright, and hopelessly over his head in making programs work and improving the world, he is good a one thing: monkeywrenching.
It seems most marxist revolutionaries are trained to do it; just attack the right pressure points. I doubt he has a grand plan, but Buarq still can do a great deal of damage.
There seems to a ramping up of the tension between the US, Israel and Iran, and I fear Buraq is up to something that will reap havoc on our interests and traditional allies again. Zerohedge had a hysteric post on the shipping of fuel air bunker buster type bombs to Diego Garcia, http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-preparing-total-destruction-iran. Zerohedge is a interesting financial blog but this post and the comments afterward appear to be pure bat guano. My take is closer to Whiskey’s; Buraq is much more likely to defend Iran than to defend Israel, at this point.
I just felt a disturbance in the force.
I believe Hildabeast just woke up with a start and said, “What am I doing, fronting for this buffoon?”
OK, carry on, fellow jedii.
“News Corporation that owns Fox in America and has as its second largest investor the Saudi Prince al-Taweed.”
LOTM, thanks for mentioning this. It is worrisome. There are rumblings that Fox News is now censoring out any anti-muslim reporting (cf. the latest bashing of Geert Wilders by Beck et al, particularly strange since before this they praised Geert ***google it for more info)
“Washington has publicly stated it expects Israel to eat humble pie — and give President Obama what he wants.”
Like the Olympics, or the Copenhagen Climate Conference, or Iran, or Russia.
Obama will get nothing, because, deep down inside, he is a weenie.
a bit off topic
@ 28. Unsk
“hopelessly over his head in making programs work”
Rush the other day said that Obama himself has NO PROVEN record of streamlining any program! why should we believe he can make our healthcare system better, more efficient, streamlined, etc. The man has NO proven record of going into systems and fixing them and making them better! he has no expertise in this…or anything else really! yet we are supposed to just trust him because he’s so magical! (ok, i’m ranting, thanksbye!)
and LOL at Josh #29…disturbance in the Hildebeast force! Jar jar biden!
Wretchard wrote; “I think what’s happened is far simpler. The US has embarked on two processes, the containment of Iran and the engagement of Iran (flip sides of the same coin), and success in either requires the cooperation of the Arab world.”
If that is the thinking in Washington, there will be bright flashes over the region double quick.
Not sure if “State” has noticed, but Iran is NOT an Arab nation, They only speak Arabic when they have to; Farsi is their lingo. They are Shia “heretics”, not Sunni, and so on it goes.
The dream of the twelfth imam is interwoven with the dreams of the days of the infidel Darius.
The Iranians may have the first “Islamic” nukes, but it will be a PERSIAN nuke, not an Arab nuke; big difference. Their play in Syria and Lebanon may have discomforted the neighbouring Arab (and Turkish) states, but said states will never admit their unease as they are terminally locked into their “Shame / Honour” dichotomy. Some of them are also probably fantasising that the Persians will obliterate Israel, (and with it, most of those useful, but annoying “Palestinians”). Once the Shia heretics have expended their nuclear aces, the “righteous” Hyenas can descend on them.
Jason Gray/27
I like your nuclear horned rhinos idea, but you realize they will have to be moderate Republicans, for as described, your nuclear guardians will be rhinos in name only.
A “day” of rage? When did a Palestinian day without rage go by?
The idea that Israel was ever a strategic partner is a self-serving one that turns truth on it’s head. Without the existence of Israel, arranging Middle-east dominoes would be simple work. We have supported Israel for other very good reasons, none of which were in our strategic interest–as Harry Truman well knew when he reluctantly signed on to the UN vote.
It may be that an abandonment of Israel by Washington will end in a result that greatly disappoints Israel’s enemies. And no one should be relying on America right now.
Dr Mabuse-Chesterton, as much as I admire his writings, was also guilty of that common English malady of discovering after the war was over that America’s enemies appeared much weaker in reality than in the run up to the war. But before hostilities broke out the English were absolutely positive that finally America was facing an enemy that it could not defeat. The most famous of these is of course the Duke of Wellington who predicted that the Mexican army under the experienced command of General Santana would destroy the Americans at the Rio Grande or Vera Cruz. Then after the war he claimed that America had again triumphed over nobody.
If I may, I would like to hark back to the This Land is Mined thread. I was in the midst of writing a post when the thread was closed. This thread, Days of Rage relates.
Buraq Hussein Obama is putting pressure on Israel and giving every indication that they are as much targets as allies. OK, let’s go back to a couple of entries from the last thread.
88. Eggplant:
Off topic but interesting. The following link indicates that a build-up maybe taking place for destroying Iran’s nuclear capability:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/world-news/final-destination-iran-1.1013151
This story could be pure fabrication or an example of disinformation to confuse the Iranians.
Politically, Obama has painted himself into a corner with the health care stupidity. Also, the economy appears poised to double dip. An economic double dip coupled with failure to enact Obamacare means a one term presidency for the Messiah and the end in November of Democrat control of the Congress. Attacking Iran might be the Messiah’s only option for political salvage.
Mar 15, 2010 – 1:59 pm
and
90. buckets:
Over at Powerline the fellas noted a list of peremptory demands SecState Clinton delivered to the Israelis re: the settlement announcements. Not that unusual in and of itself, but the list includes things like:
3. Make a substantial gesture toward the Palestinians enabling the renewal of peace talks. The Americans suggested that hundreds of Palestinian prisoners be released, that the Israel Defense Forces withdraw from additional areas of the West Bank and transfer them to Palestinian control, that the siege of the Gaza Strip be eased and further roadblocks in the West Bank be removed.
4. Issue an official declaration that the talks with the Palestinians, even indirect talks, will deal with all the conflict’s core issues – borders, refugees, Jerusalem, security arrangements, water and settlements.
Maybe its just me, but this conjures up Hitler’s “negotiations” with Eastern Europe in the years leading up to 1939. I’m disgusted it’s now the U.S. demanding “negotiation” concessions like this. How far can we fall before we hit bottom? I suspect we may find out.
Mar 15, 2010 – 2:15 pm
————
# 88 Eggplant & #90 buckets [last paragraph]
Maybe it is because I am not a trusting soul, am definitely not a “nice” person, and tend to think a little outside the normal box like an investigator and look for all the possible ways that data can fit together that I can find. Then you emphasize those scenarios that match the known behaviours of the subjects and deal with anomalies. People do not vary from their normal routines without compulsion.
1) If Eggplant’s article is true, we are stockpiling bunker-buster weapons at Diego Garcia. The assumption of the article is that Buraq Hussein Obama is going to thump the living gou3 cao4 de5 gou3shi3 out of “poor innocent” Iran with emphasis on the specific hardened nuclear sites.
2) This would be totally anomalous behavior on the part of Buraq. He has acted in a totally submissive manner towards Iran, not even saying a harsh word since inauguration. There has been nothing but functional encouragement for their actions masked by alternate grovelling and concessions.
3) A strike on Iran would have severe complications. Russia is the supplier, guarantor, and protector of the Iranian nuclear program and has designed an air defense system to guard against an attack. Given the nature of the Iranian military, ‘you betcha’ that it is largely Russian manned. You think Buraq is going to risk dropping ordnance on Russians? Similarly, the largest importer of oil in the world by volume is …. China. It has been that way for a few years. China has tied up a lot of Iran’s output in long term contracts. ANY strike on Iran is going to impact Iranian oil deliveries, if only while the regime sorts out what happened.
It may not be considered a good idea to openly siphon the gas tank of the banker who you are depending on for a line of credit to stay alive.
Buraq may not love this country or its people much, if at all; but from the appearances so far he does care for Russia, China, and the Ummah and also fears their leaders if not their people.
So if Buraq is going to hit Iran, he will be acting, with no warning or known motivation, in a manner entirely opposite to his beliefs and actions for his entire life.
The one solid data point we have, if the article is right, is the presence of the new inventory of bunker buster bombs on Diego Garcia, and modifications to the strategic bomber base there to accomodate them. One does not go to the time, trouble, and expense to shift a major chunk of a specialized inventory of weapons halfway around the world without a reason. I admit, that there may well be other reasons than an immediate strike preparation. I just don’t know what they might be given the current strategic situation in that part of the world.
The “bunker buster” inventory is wasted on anything but buried and hardened targets; nuclear weapons, nuclear facilities, and command,control, and communications [C3] facilities. Most other targets can be easily taken out by conventional weapons systems.
So, in the region where else has a bunch of the types of targets that require this kind of penetrator ordnance?
India and Pakistan have nukes and delivery systems. While I would assume that both have hardened C3, other than possibly the Pakistani nuclear force may be keeping part of its systems in hardened bunkers at the Central Ammunition Depot on PAFB Sargodha [31°57'N 72°43'E] near the Kirana Hills; neither are known for hardening. Most of their inventories in missiles and nukes are in un-hardened bunkers that are accessable to normal weaponry. If there are some hardened bunkers, there are not enough to require that many penetrators.
Iraq is out. Afghanistan has barely moved past the discovery of plowed ground. Syria has not, as far as we can tell, developed nuclear weapons thanks to Israel. It may have chemicals and biologicals from Iran; but once again while there may be a few, there is not a whole, large infrastructure of hardened bunkers.
Hmm. Where in the Middle East is there a country with extensive hardened nuclear weapons, nuclear facilities, and[C3] facilities? Further, that country would be one which has consistently been the object of the hostility of the United States Government in general [at least in certain Departments], and of Buraq Hussein Obama in particular. Even further, an attack on that country would have to not provoke a hostile reaction from Russia, China, the EU, or OPEC against the United States.
I don’t know. Buckets, can you come up with any candidates?
[/tongue in cheek]
There would be an uproar domestically if Buraq ordered a strike to disarm Israel; but then again we are in the midst of proof positive that the opinions of the American people, and the restrictions on the government laid out by the Constitution do not seem to weigh very heavily in the calculations of the regime or the Democratic Party. If the Slaughter Procedure is used in open violation of the Constitution to allow passage of laws without a vote of Congress, and they get away with it; anything is possible. After all, who is going to stop them? And how, once conventional politics has broken down?
Just something to add to the mix. The point being that the strategic indicators of an American attack on Israel are far stronger than any for an attack on Iran. And in these strange times; when as it has been said, the United States is more belligerent about Israelis building apartment buildings in their own country, than it is about Iran building nuclear weapons to use against the United States — the old order is overturned, all things are possible, and all one can do is follow the current indications with no reference to any past baseline conditions. Any comments?
Subotai Bahadur
Subotai Bahadur,
Thank you for what may be the most important comment that I have seen on the web ever. My hope is that your analysis will be widely distributed and discussed. My intent is to assist in that effort as much as my modest efforts can.
Staging B-1s at Fantasy Island to overfly the Magic Kingdom and strike the Israelis is both workable and evil. Under Bush the Israelis consented to the US opening an Early Warning radar installation as a confidence building measure that showed our commitment to their security. The Americans have refused to give Israel access to the radar system that we operate on their territory. It may prove to be a Trojan Horse.
The only defense that the Israelis can have against such threats would be to take a page from the Chechens and preposition their responses in target cities. They could not do that in smaller or more controlled Arab cities, or at least it would not be worth the effort. They probably could smuggle nuclear devices into places like Moscow, DC, Chicago, Berlin, London and Paris, and bury them where it would be a billion to one chance of their being found. One day the Israeli Ambassador may invite the President or some similar person to tear his capital apart looking for the Doomsday device. To gain credibility they may share photos of him in the bathroom. They probably could pull it off.
If they do not have such a response ready though their options are not encouraging. They may need to preempt an American move. The eradication of the Syrian regime by Israel may now be more likely.
To be blogged under the title “Fail Unsafe.”
I’m not surprised that the bamster is looking for another target. This is how it was when he slipped in “stupidly” and then ended up with a silent beer summit. And, ya know what? Health care never did get back on track.
And, who, exactly did so well lambasting Israel? Jimmy Carter? You can’t fool me. Israel doesn’t make moves that it doesn’t discuss in private. And, with biden coming it was decided that he was hostile. And, the first shot out made him angry enough to miss 2 hours of dinner with Israel’s prime minister.
For Bibi? That’s two hours less he had to spend with plugs. As to Hillary taking a shot? She’s just happy to get a headline. While in DC, you might not guess this, but Rahm’s as out as Desiree Rogers. And, Axelrod is not familiar with congress. While Pelosi is kicking in the door to the bamster’s closed office. You think she has the votes?
I don’t even think Israel cares much what happens in Iran. 51% of that country is Turkish. Persians are in a minority. And, the mullahs are perhaps liked by 10%. About average for the dictatorships. Where 40% of men in iran remain unemployed. Oh. And, the saud’s are terrified!
So, part of what you’ve seen was designed to convince the saud’s that even if America doesn’t blow up iran’s nuke program, they’ll give the saud’s a victory in Israel. Which is even more UNlikely. While Hosni Mubarak is dead, or very close to it. And, Maliki was injured by a road side bomb. Maybe, without a functioning CIA the bamster doesn’t even get enough information pumped in? He’s still afraid his health care fiasco goes down in flames. And, if it does? The bamster was defeated by Rush Limbaugh. It’s just amazing. And, GOOD.
Any comments?
Subotai Bahadur
yes.
please be wrong.
I’m not sure you could find a lot of US military who would partipate in a major attack on Israel, and I’m not sure that you could surprise Israel in the event, and I’m pretty sure Israel would/should fire every nuke available the moment such an attack became evident.
Subotai #37: With the caveat you noted – if the article is right – imo, I think you see things crystal clear.
Poor Israel, if she does nothing she will be attacked; if she attacks preemptively, she’ll suffer retaliation. (I can’t envision the rest of the world will stand for Israeli self-defense.)
What makes Subotai’s attack-on-Israel scenario plausible is what I call psycho-capabilities.
This factor comes into play whenever a party has a variety of things it is physically capable of doing BUT is operating under psychotic or near psychotic compulsions that
propel it into incoherence and irrationality.
And from that point on a suicidal course of action is inevitable.
Obama’s actions to date are rather like those of Hirohito—-another airhead who thought
he could fulfill impossible visions of propriety by commanding results.
Interesting times, these.
Dave, I hear you, but again, would the US military take such an order?
Israel is pretty well loaded with Pat-3′s at this point, I imagine. Can we overcome our own defenses?
Just another democratic ally under the bus.
Just another crisis to be put to use.
Only, what is Obama’s true agenda.
Who knows?
And who wrote Obama’s book?
Re Obama’s acumen @ 19 and 20
He was smart enough to set himself up for a lifetime of gravy train: pension, benefits, and, most importantly, speaking fees. He will not be able as an ex-President to do deals and pedal influence like Clinton, however.
I have twice before seen parallel cases of executives who, like Obama, combine ineffectiveness and peevishness. One was a department head whose goal was personal perks (salary and work load) and who consciously allowed the department to descend into chaos because he did not feel responsible. His self-defined job description did not cover anything but getting the perks.
The other case was a neighborhood association president who used his position to strengthen his resume and get a job in another state as a municipal neighborhood services bureaucrat. He never made any attempt to solve the particular problem that had prompted the association’s founding. In fact, to have done so would have made it unlikely for him to get the home City award that was a crucial element of the resume building.
Both of these “men” showed lots of evidence of malignant narcissism, like our President. Obama doesn’t care about the results of his policies. He has made his nut, and the Country doesn’t matter to him anymore than the Department and the neighborhood mattered to those described above.
Subotai, from an alleged time hopper: “American civil war triggered by administration’s betrayal of Israel”.
Always thought betrayal = not helping in time of need.
Couldn’t conceive of betrayal = attack on Israel.
But your scenario is plausible. In the sense that I can’t refute the part that Obamao and the scenario are not contradictory.
Joining Josh. Just don’t see US Mil going along with it.
So, could an intent be a trigger of a civil war? It is not beyond the realm of possibilities.
Some oil on the fire: Linky
Poor Israel, if she does nothing she will be attacked; if she attacks preemptively, she’ll suffer retaliation. (I can’t envision the rest of the world will stand for Israeli self-defense.)
Well, if it’s Israeli self-defense against the U.S., I don’t think the rest of the world would have too much trouble with it. They’d protest and object, of course, but those denunciations are practically automated recordings by now. More likely they’d smirk contentedly that the blundering Americans had finally gotten what’s coming to them, while publicly expressing sympathy and solicitude to a bruised U.S. “There, there – you see what you get for consorting with those Jewish snakes? Muslims are FAR more trustworthy, believe me!”
Meanwhile, anti-Semitism would become very popular in the U.S., and the government would see that it remained so. No, we can only hope that it never comes to a real physical confrontation.
Outrage is actually from an etymological confusion.
It came from French outre, beyond what is strictly proper, made into a noun with the suffix -age, something that is beyond what is strictly proper.
English noticed the -rage at the end of outrage, and said that what is beyond what is strictly proper deserves rage: the word itself says so.
This was so useful that the word was reimported back into French.
Thus rage became the proper reaction to anything.
The Arabs, Persians, and all Islamic peoples want every Jew pushed into the Mediterranean and shot while in the water. They’d rather have Israel be a sea of glass courtesy of an Iranian nuke. In short, Israel has a lot of very, very angry enemies preparing the long knives.
So, if Netanyahu announces tomorrow that it’s “no more Mr. Nice Jew”, that Israel will GIVE BACK NOTHING because they have nothing they should give, that they will RECLAIM the historic lands of Israel, that they will DEPORT enemies current in those lands, every man, woman, and child to THEIR historic lands, e.g. Jordan, Egypt, Syria, and Iraq, and that they WILL FIGHT FOR KEEPS going forward – i.e. that they keep the lands that Israeli soldiers die for while defending their country, um … I forget, what will the American left and all Israel’s other enemies do? Oh…yeah..they’ll be REALLY angry. They’ll want every Jew pushed into the Mediterranean …
If Israel acts in preemptive self-defense and gives Iran it’s traditional warning, Iran of courss, then not only threatens but promises to destroy Israel, and then Israel nukes Tehran, will her other enemies be MORE likely or LESS likely to attack Israel?
Joe Biden, the ex-First Lady, and the man from Kansas and Indonesia are playing politics. If they lose this election, chances are, they’ll win the next. They can lose the US House .. they’ll get it back some day. “Never waste a good crisis…”. Israel on the other had, gets ONE crisis, ONE chance to lose everything, ONE chance to survive. The stakes are far higher than 1948, 1967, 1972 – Israel has hostiles surrounding her armed to the teeth with missles, and a foe with missile technology and very nearly nukes.
Netanyahu should tell Obama to kiss off, that they’ll make up for the loss of U.S. support via the spoils of war. Start with neighboring oil fields ….
Israel’s neighbors get to choose: Peace with a country they’ll never totally embrace as a friend, or War with a country which will devastate them, kill it’s citizens wholesale, and take that country’s treasures and prime Real Estate as spoils. Israeli Jews are NOT going back to the ovens of the Anti-Semites.
Well, I guess that makes me a bit of a hawk, huh? Oh..plus, Israel will need to practice free enterprise and give up it’s idea of Socialist utopia, or they won’t have the financial muscle to survive the wars that are inevitably heading her way.
Old Salt
I don’t usually comment but this is personal – I was at the site of the rebuilt Hurva (fittingly that means “ruin”) synagogue a number of times in the past 10 years and have seen it slowly rebuilt. It was destroyed not during fighting in 1948, but after the Jordanians occupied the Jewish section of Jerusalem and then tried to eradicate any trace of Jewish history there, including using gravestones for street paving and toilets. And that was the nominally secular Jordanians!
The Islamists cannot stomach another faith thriving around them. The local Muslims are upset now because the Hurva building is taller than their mosque. That’s the reason behind “rage day”. They also have been known to tear down church buildings that got too tall for their comfort (eg the Copts in Egypt, Buddha statues). Because their entire belief system is based the inevitability of Islam replacing the earlier monotheistic creeds, any resurgence in a competing faith means their system is broken or they are not doing Allah’s will. Reports from friends of mine there is the Muslims think that building one place of worship in Jerusalem means the Jews are going to rebuild the Temple next. Sounds good to me!
Obama wishing to emasculate Israel is likely, but if he’s in the Prez business mainly for the perks (46 above), then actually making such a bold move is inconceivable. It would profit him nothing, would only create headaches. What applies here is the dinner/life principle: the fox only loses dinner, the rabbit loses life. I doubt Obama would go against the rabbit Israel at full tilt.
#37 Subotai
Sir, you better be wrong! When I read the Diego Garcia news I was thinking it was someone in CENTCOM with a brain preparing for Iran after Obama’s impeachment. Another consideration – if Obama wants to hit Israel the best staging areas are Italy and Turkey, with large NATO airbases. Israel’s defenses and radars are set up to defend against the South (Egypt) and East (Iran/Syria). An attack from the West and Northwest would be the most unexpected and be able to reach strategic C3 and airbases (Tel Aviv & Palmahim) the fastest since they are on the coast.
#50 OldSalt
Israel is not socialist! Google “start up nation”. Israel has more tech start-ups than anyone. Israel also holds $billions of US debt and their economy was not hit by the bubble, which makes it ridiculous when ignorant Americans threaten to cut off aid. They even have Coke & McDonalds!
The only socialist feature in Israel is quality universal healthcare which actually works thanks to a very high density of doctors and hospitals (though there are options to buy private insurance and see private doctors). Perhaps that’s why Obama hates Israel – they succeed where he is failing miserably.
Eggplant #13:
I was just thinking the other day that there is a safe, effective, internationally acceptable, and even environmentally friendly means of handling Iran’s development of nukes and missiles.
Missile defense. President Ronald Reagan’s gift to humanity.
Just think now how nice it would be if we could go into every country threatened by Iran and install US-operated missile defenses. Such as boost phase and mid-course intercept defenses based in Iraq and terminal defenses in the other countries. Such as orbitally based defenses. Think how much influence that would give us. Imagine how an Iranian missile attack could have been intercepted, after which we deal with Iran almost at our leisure. Think of the televised countdown at Cape Canaveral as the T-0 approaches, by which time if Iran does not submit to our demands then they will submit to their absolute destruction. “10, 9, 8, … Still no response? 3, 2, 1.”
But we don’t have that lovely option due to the determined sabotage of missile defenses by the Democratic Party, the International Left, and elements of the so-called scientific establishment.
The lightpole shortage in DC looms…
Bibi is being clever, again. Building new homes for Jews ON THEIR LAND is popular at home. It also forces the Jewish lobby in America to see just how badly they screwed the pooch with Obama.
That might just reap dividends this November. Jews don’t have all that many votes, but with their deep pockets, they punch above their weight. Last minute donations count a lot in an election.
While I don’t see Congress flipping leading to impeachment, it will put an end to the Marxist takeover of the USA.
Israel is a sovereign nation. They will co-operate with the USA when it is in their interests to do so. The Arabs have a myth that Israel is a lap dog of America. They cherish that myth as a way of explaining why Israel has kicked their arse in every campaign that has been fought since 1948.
The Arabs ‘forget’ that the USA was on their side in ’57, neutral in ’67 and only involved diplomatically in ’73. In all those campaigns, the Arabs forces were stronger relative to Israel then they are today. The Arab delusiion is that if the USA abandons support for Israel, they can swamp the IDF and drive the hated Joooooooos into the sea.
No Chance. One of the reasons the Arabs have such a poor military record is they haven’t figured out yet that Allah isn’t on the side of the biggest Battalions anymore. He now grants his favors to the highest technology.
Israel is more then capable of defeating ANY combination of Arab nations on the battlefield. American help is welcome, but not critical.
The real casualty of this brewhaha is the two state solution. It has been dead longer then Arafat, but fools still visit it. It’s in the bed next to Sharon.
37. Subotai Bahadur:
Sometimes you are an absolute artist with words “…Afghanistan has barely moved past the discovery of plowed ground..”
Otherwise, I sadly concur with your insights, there are dark days ahead. And the shame will be upon us for having tolerated the rise of this situation.
#37
Hope and change, eh?
(a.k.a. Stop scaring people?)
37. Subotai…
It’s been pointed out to me by a friend or two that there are not references to America or the USA as players in the final battles of the book of Revelations. Getting in on the wrong team in a manner like you suggests might just make this prediction a reality. Just a little something that I was turning over in my head on the commute this A.M.
RWE, your “lampost shortage” makes me smile! Just the medicine this nation needs. (Both lampost shortages and smiles).
Josh, I fully agree. There will be plenty of patriots who will disobey unlawful orders. Remember in Moscow not too long ago when the T-72′s were dispatched to clear the barricades, only to 180 and back up to them? I think we can expect an even higher percentage of that, since those are Americans in those uniforms. OUR people step forward to serve, not the snottish, self serving progs. The few moles and turncoats will be dealt a swift justice, and deservedly so.
Anton… shameful, yes, we have all at the least stood idle. Through indoctrination, sleight of hand and “popular” sentiment we were led to complacency. It is still our own fault for partaking of it, for who here does not have free will? So now I welcome the chance to atone and return to the correct path.
58. LFMayor: That lampost shortage that RWE mentions would be but a start.
By the way, I don’t think it is a coincidence that all the F-117A’s were retired in October 2008. Or that they are stored in place where no one can see them rather than at DMAFB. They even stored the GTD-21’s at DM, before anyone even knew what they were.
Where do you think those airplanes are, really?
I know where I would guess. Remember Pres Bush’s promise relative to Iran’s nukes.
This puts paid to the Petreaus for POTUS bubble.
LFMayor,
plenty of patriots who will disobey unlawful orders
Be careful, expecting American troops to disobey orders transmitted through the Chain of Command sounds like the magical thinking that expected the SCOTUS to invalidate Obama’s election. If an order is transmitted it will be executed. After that the troops may come home changed people and we can speculate as to whether they will be angry at the people who set up the conflict or at the people they attacked.
One of the reasons that I fear there could be a move like this is that I believe that Obama wants to break the US military. Creating moral dilemmas is for him a positive benefit. Who are the biggest supporters of the armed forces? Conservative Christians, who are often more Zionist than Jews are. Another reason the Left hates the military is that it provides Blacks and Hispanics an alternative to the controlled position of dependency in the welfare plantation. As we discussed in the “Nothing is Written” thread the Left fears military competence. Poisoning the military in the eyes of conservative Christians, the repeal of DADT may be part of the same strategy, and driving a wedge between them and minorities are domestic goals for the Left.
To be blogged under the title “Obama’s Motives.”
OT
The Democrats are now believed to be within 4 votes of ramming through the Health Care bill.
Allies everywhere feeling snubbed by President Obama
By Robert Kagan
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The 1600 housing units will be in North, not East, Jerusalem and construction will not start for three years.
RWE @ 60: I hope you are right. I don’t know that they’re configured to carry the bunker busters, but they could have suppression roles.
Or they could sell them at surplus to Israel …
Last time I brought this up, some secularist joker called me a yokel and a fool, but it comes with the turf. For LFMAYOR: Revelations doesn’t mention America in any easily understood way ,but the prophecies of Ezekial 38-39 quite possibly do.
The prophecy is about a coalition of nations clearly including Iran (Persia in the Scriptures), Russia (Gog and Magog, Meshech and Tubal), Ethiopia (Somalia?) and Libya as well as Turkey (Togormah in Scripture) invading Israel and being destroyed by a combination of Israeli might and divine intervention. I know many here scoff at the idea of divine involvement, but a study of the 1973 war surely shows a miraculous turning of the tide. In the Golan Heights an Israeli tank platoon held off a Syrian armored division. Nixon beyond diplomacy re-supplied Israel. Allegedly he told aides his Quaker mother, in his childhood admonished him to always be kind to the Jews as God’s chosen people and this influenced his decision. He also put the US forces on red alert as Soviet paratroopers were boarding planes to intervene causing the USSR to back off.
The prophecy says God will judge the invaders with fire on the mountains of Israel; nuclear fire perhaps? Ezekial 39:6-states And I will send a fire upon Magog and among them that dwell carelessly in the Isles and they shall know that I am the Lord. Some commentators believe the latter part of that verse refers to judgment upon America and the west for not coming to the aid of Israel.
Zechariah 14:12 while probably referring not to this war but the final one in the valley of Megiddo states; “This will be the plague wherewith the Lord will
smite all the people that have fought against Jerusalem; Their flesh shall consume away while they stand upon their feet and their eyes shall consume away in their holes and their tongue shall consume away in their mouths” That sounds like nuclear annihilation to me.
I understand its all Scriptural and will immediately be dismissed by the wise and prudent among us, but do you have a clearer roadmap for what’s going on?
“What liberals neglected to consider, when they abandoned the Freedom Agenda, is that without it, Israel and the ideas it represents would become less and less important. Having sold democracy down the tubes, it was inevitable that the suction would pull more into the drain. Given the trends, how long before Israel is disposable? To the power of oil and demography must now be added political convenience of pandering to an Arab constituency.”
Have not the Liberals given up on Israel decades ago? Once the Left went anti-Semitic it was inevitable, and that happened long before 2001.
Israel still has friends in the US, but not among the “elite”.
OT: Very good interview last night on Charlie Rose with Michael Lewis, author of previous book “Liar’s Poker” about 1980s bond traders and now “The Big Short” about our current meltdown.
transcript:
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10911#frame_top
I’m not sure the book is as good as this interview, but Lewis is the real deal. And hey, Rose’s web site now seems to offer the video replay for free!
The rage is entirely manufactured as a result of Obama’s Cairo speech where he elevated the settlement expansion issue.
It is a mistake when involved in a dispute brokered by an amoral, ie liberal, party, to be the more reasonable of of the two antagonists.
You will be the one who is expected to make all the concessions.
#43 Josh:
Dave, I hear you, but again, would the US military take such an order?
Israel is pretty well loaded with Pat-3’s at this point, I imagine. Can we overcome our own defenses?
I did not put it into #37, but those Patriot-3′s are manned by US troops. We know the position of every one of them down to the centimeter. And our planes have an IFF signal that tells our missiles not to chase them. Even if the troops in Israel tried to defend against the attack, our missiles [and possibly some Israeli missiles] would not go for the attackers. But if they are given the order to stand down, say claiming that US forces are doing a transit over Israeli airspace to another target regardless of what the Israelis want …
As far as obedience to orders, there is both the automatic obedience to orders that is inculcated into our military [which, incidentally, is what you depend on when you are engaged in the theory and practice of the art of coup d'etat], and the fact that they may not have the whole picture when they get their mission orders. Remember, AF orders are called “FRAG orders” because it is fragmented or broken down to small pieces that cover just the unit specified and no one at the operational level necessarily has the big picture. That alone would cause enough hesitation to keep people from disobeying orders until it was too late. I could think of ways to phrase the orders ambivalently to get the job done.
Countering that, if one respected senior leader got word that such was happening, and got the word out, there could be a spike in the number of “non-mission capable” aircraft and crews in Diego Garcia. And possibly repercussions worldwide.
At one time late last year, I was strongly given to understand that one of the readers of BELMONT CLUB was someone whose job had a 3 digit letter-number-letter designator at a numbered Air Force level. Those who have been AF will understand that. I had to have it explained to me by someone who had, coincidentally, been in the a closely related specialty but who was quite a few steps farther down the food chain. I sure hope that they still are reading.
In the aftermath, the armed forces’ innate distrust of the motives of the NCA will become widespread. What the effects will be still have to play out.
One a related civilian note. I went to precinct caucuses last night. Each precinct had a separate space in a large open area, but we were all by each other and could hear what was going on. We had about 3 times the normal attendence at caucuses. I live in a small mountain town, in a small mountain county. One of the candidates for County Sheriff [here, the Sheriff is the supreme law enforcement authority in the county, has command authority over all local law enforcement, and if something happens to the County Commissioners, he is the County Government. Your basic big cheese.] who I think will get the nomination at the County Convention was asked openly at every precinct; if the Federal government gives orders in violation of the Constitution, which they all swear an Oath to, what will you do?
He answered that if they were given orders that violated the Federal or State Constitutions, especially the 2nd and 10th Amendments, “They would stand their ground!”.
That went over very well, and matches what I have been hearing from local cops and deputies.
The feeling of all was pride. That says something. Cops and military come from closely related molds. Both have the same honor:
http://nicedoggie.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Honor-500×4001-450×360.jpg
We all depend on our Oathkeepers’ Honor.
Subotai Bahadur
Josh #64:
My point was I think it very likely that some of the 117′s are already in Israel.
Storage procedures reportedly (Wikipedia) involved taking the wings off – which would make them more easily air transportable.
And they are out of service, out of sight – and out of mind. The only way they will make news is if one shows up on ebay.
People are wondering how the IDF penetrated Syrian air defenses so easily. Maybe they had some unexpected new capabilities.
And maybe the reason Obama and Biden and Hillary are so upset is that it was taken out of their hands before they had an ability to stop it.
But I really know nothing – but I know what I would have done if I was Pres Bush.
SB @ 70: US troops on duty today in Israel? I dunno. When the batteries were emplaced under fire in 2003, but that’s seven years ago. I wouldn’t much like that as a US policy, and I don’t think the Israelis would much like it as Israeli policy.
Regarding the IFF, I guess that’s likely. Even more, I wonder about backdoors.
–
RWE @ 71: I like the way you think, don’t know what the odds are, but one can hope.
I don’t buy Subotai’s scenario, as plausible as it may read when fleshed out as he did.
Then again, Samantha Powers, who was thrown off of Obama’s campaign, was added to the NSC staff after the election anyway. She’s supposed to have suggested that the U.S. occupy Israel if that should ‘prove necessary,’ or something.
What might stop an Obamanation in Israel, is if the US moved against Israel, Israel would move against Syria, SA, the Palestinians, or the Dome of the Rock. Not to mention other US installations inside of Israel.
Didn’t the NYTimes today suggest that this whole kerfuffle is just so Obama can build street cred with the Arabs? Remember, President Present doesn’t really have a history of doing anything to or for anybody, other than running his mouth, calling them pigs, bowing to them, or giving them the finger.
As always, “Contentions” has good coverage of Israel-U.S. politics. Obama now has blood on his hands. A problem for him? Yes and no. Given Obama’s past statement—“If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun”—confrontation and doubling down on confrontation is the only game Obama knows, or at least the one he likes best.
Despite its well-crafted reasoning, I also find Subotai’s scenario difficult to give full credence to…but it did prompt another thought.
Obama ‘might’ attack both Iranian and Israeli nuclear facilities.
As doing so, could plausibly discredit both Iranian protests and Russian and Chinese objections.
I suspect he’s sympathetic to the argument that Israel’s nuclear capability is both a threat to Islamic countries and a destabilizing influence in the M.E.
I don’t share that view but he may well hold it, given his obvious sympathies.
Neither my scenario nor Subotai’s however, address the issue of an unprovoked American attack upon an ally, which under current circumstances, I cannot imagine Obama being able to politically justify. It would be an act of war, perhaps comparable to Pearl Harbor.
Plus, I just don’t see Obama having the cojones to militarily confront the Mullahs and of course, this is an unconfirmed report. But if true…something is being planned, on at least a contingency basis.
I am doubtful that the weapons would be used under any scenario. One can surmise though that the frat boys thought it would keep everybody guessing. That is as good as a strategy as any. People could read whatever they wanted into it and that comports with this administrations means and methods as well as any.
Josh,
US troops are there operating the radars under old agreements and the Israelis are from what I once saw not happy with the arrangement.
Yesterday the Israeli Chief of Staff visited Turkey, FWIW.
Annoy Mouse,
I am doubtful that the weapons would be used
My point is that even if the Americans do not attack Israel the prospect of the encounter could destabilize the US forces. Obama and his supporters may consider that a good thing. If a Squadron Commander gets relieved or some maintenance crew get busted then it is a win for the Left. The one thing that Obama and Ayers were trained on is how to spread chaos.
LOTM, good points. But I’ll ask yet again, are US troops operating any facilities, radar or missiles, that are crucial to Israeli defense, or are these parallel US radar facilities for US purposes? Also there are some US depots there that might reasonably be defended by US troops.
Hmm. I have no idea about the state of the art in radar, is it possible the Israelis depend on some SOTA ground-based radar only the US makes and will not sell them? Or are the Pat-3′s still officially on loan and so the US troops stay with them?
I don’t much like either scenario, as I said, not from either side.
It is not about 1600 housing units (2 buckets of salt, it’s debka):
debkafile’s Washington sources report Washington will keep twisting the Netanyahu government’s arm until it toes the line on Iran. Obama’s acceptance of Iran’s nuclear program is spurned not only by Israel but also by Saudi Arabia and the moderate Arab regimes.
More: http://debka.com/article/8651/
Wretchard: “With ‘rage’ in East Jerusalem and ‘rage’ in Washington, Netanyahu must decide whether to cool things down by conceding”
Most likely, he is wondering what the point would be, given the way he’s being treated after his two previous major concessions of accepting a two-state solution and freezing all building in the disputed territories outside of Jerusalem.
And I liked your following lines so much, I’ll simply re-post them:
Eggplant (#13): “I’m sort of hoping this happens about two or three hundred years from now (long after I’m dead and forgotten).”
Come on, man! Don’t you want to live in interesting times?
#20: “I don’t think Obama is all that bright.”
Jeffrey Goldberg writes that “people near the President say that … Obama doesn’t think that Netanyahu is very bright.” Besides the fact that Netanyahu’s political career is no less stellar than Obama’s and that he was a special forces commander, I wouldn’t disparage the intelligence of someone who obtains a degree in architecture (and then a management MS) from MIT. Then again, who can measure up to The One’s stellar intellectual standards?
Annoy Mouse (#22): “as long as American Jews are the greatest obstacle to peace in Israel maybe it isn’t the Dems who should be ashamed.”
American Jews as opposed to Dems? Outside of the minority Orthodox, what’s the difference?
Walt (#24):
You’re giving the Palestinian Arabs way too much (too little?) credit. Getting rid of the Jews isn’t the means, it’s the goal.
Subotai (#37): “Any comments?”
Yes. When I at long last get off my backside and establish a dictatorship somewhere, you have a standing offer to be at the head of one of my security forces.
#70:
When it comes to military power, the US has a significant advantage of size, with all that entails, over Israel, but Israel is very competitive technologically, and certainly has some tricks up its sleeve. A (purely hypothetical) US strike on Israel would be the riskiest American mission since WW2, certainly if Israel were forewarned…
Geoffrey (#76), I like your gloss to Subotai. It almost sounds likely, though I share your dubiousness.
#79 Josh:
Admitting that it was a quick search, and that data about Israeli inventories and deployments are better secured than ours [you would not find the Jerusalem Times printing classified Israeli defense secrets like the New York Times does routinely for classified US secrets] and frequently deliberately understate what Israel has; the best I can find for sure is that Israel wants PAC-3′s but I don’t think that they have been allowed to buy them. They do have PAC-2 GEM+’s which have far less of an anti-missile capability but which have a better performance if operated with PAC-3 radars, and they consider them last ditch terminal defense weapons. Any PAC-3′s there are, I think [and I will gladly be disproved], ours. The radars for the PAC-3 are upgraded and it has a hit to kill tracker/warhead that is superior to the proximity HE warhead of the PAC-2 GEM+ that Israel definitely has. PAC-3 has about a 7x greater area coverage than the original Patriot. I suspect that if we don’t sell them the PAC-3 series, we don’t let them get close to the radars.
This is a not uncommon way for superpowers to keep lesser states on a short leash. It was far from uncommon for the Soviets to furnish SAM’s and train the locals to run the launchers while keeping the radars and tracking equipment under their control. That can have catastrophic results. When we hit Libya, the Libyans kept launching SAM-2′s as fast as they could reload them. SAM-2′s have to pick of the radar tracking signal within about 7 seconds from launch, or they go ballistic, and come down somewhere and go boom. The Soviets at the radars, once they figured out that it was us attacking, shut the radars down lest they receive visits from HARM and SHRIKE missiles homing in on the radar signals. The damage to Libyan cities was done by scores for rocket fuel filled telephone poles with HE warheads falling unguided in obedience to Newton’s laws.
The Israelis know this, and I assume that they are not currently feeling too trusting about their defenses against attack.
Anyone with better information, please correct me if you can.
Subotai Bahadur
Late to this thread, life raising two grand daughters out of school is a blast and almost more than I can handle and time is something that is precious and I will never get back.
The type munitions mentioned in the article that are being shipped to DG would only be suitable for semi-hardened targets such as leadership bunkers, commo. bunkers and such.
For the destruction of Iran’s facilities that are working on nukes it would take much bigger “Bunker Busters”. The U.S. was working on these monster bunker busters but Obama put the brakes on and the skids under the project last year.
Didn’t want to scare the Iranians I guess. Of course that may have been disinformation (the abandonment of the massive Bunker Busters), but knowing THE ONE’s mindset and how his handlers think I believe that our military’s efforts were indeed curtailed and put on the shelf.
Past performance of the Bunker Buster’s mentioned in the article show that they didn’t really preform in real life as they did in tests. After action (on the scene) damage assessment on targets in Iraq proved that they were not all they were advertised as. One bunker that they thought that Saddam Hussein was in took two direct hits (one after the other) and only cracked the ceiling in the bunker…and it was only about a third as deep as what intel says Iranian underground labs and workshops are.
(forgive the approximations and lack of links but they are available on the net with pictures)
So even if these weapons were used they wouldn’t do much to stop the technicians and scientists but if properly targeted could take out the Mullah’s and the Republican Guard leadership.
As far as Obama attacking Israel, he had better do some reading and soul searching. Israel is God’s Chosen People. He will have hell fire rained down on him and us if he attempts to hurt or destroy Israel.
Just saying
Papa Ray
Circling back to the original issue about Arab outrage at the reconstruction of a synagogue they destroyed. Almost 20 years ago I was doing an ACDUTRA in Munich with NavIntel and went up to Berlin for a weekend.
On Friday afternoon I walked into a police station near the Tiergarten and asked at the desk if there was a synagogue. You could hear the pfennig drop in the German cops brain as he came over to me very earnestly and said, “We have Three now” and then supplied me with directions.
The pre-war synagogue was reached from inside an apartment complex courtyard. It was a very beautiful old place. It probably survived because Berlin was never a Nazi city and Jews were more likely to remain safe there, except for street sweeps and Allied bombers or the Red Army coming to visit, than in any other German city. Maybe it needed to be restored but it was not eradicated.
To be blogged under the title “A Lantern Rekindled.”
Enough rioting, a few missiles, and Israel will be legally able to attack Hamas and Hezbollah.
Legally?
When’s that ever mattered?
By which I mean, no matter how perfectly legally Israel acts, they are invariably accused of war crimes up to and including genocide.
Given that the film of “international law” pasted over expediency is, in effect, stacked overwhelmingly in Hamas and Hezbollah’s favor, I’m not sure that Israel shouldn’t just tell the chattering class to do something anatomically impossible…
Subotai: I don’t know details about IDF deployments, but I do know:
The Arrow system is “joint production and funding”, but they do actually build them in Israel.
Thus the idea that Israel has nobody capable, able, and in position to operate a Green Pine (EL/M-2080) radar is, well, zero. The Israelis would never allow such a condition, and are in a position to prevent it authoritatively.
Perhaps there’s some confusion about the AN/TPY-2 that EUCOM has in Israel to give them increased detection range? That radar will be under US control and operation.
The Arabs have no strategic value to us or to anybody else except as irritants and troublemakers. Our domestic policy respecting the development of our own oil and gas reserves has been near criminal for years. There is no sane reason we should be so dependent on oil from the Gulf and especially so when the cost involves turning a blind eye to Islamic intransigence.
The world would be a much better place if somebody like the Ethiopians were pumping that Gulf crude out of the ground. That whole self-styled Saudi royal family is a blot on humanity.
Christians and people of other faiths are being murdered across the globe by Muslims and the most important foreign policy event in the world to Obama is a zoning dispute in Jerusalem? Well, I suppose that good follows adversity. Obama will be the best tool for awakening the silent majority and getting them moving again in the right direction since Carter.
Subotai,
Would have to time your presumed attack very carefully, it would be easier technically to hit Iran’s nascent nuclear program than Israel’s mature one. Israel has its own radar system & own air defense, I doubt they let anyone overfly Dimona or their Jericho launch sites without some assessment.
Not only that, but just one Dolphin-class Israeli sub with a couple of nuclear-armed Popeyes can make a lot of trouble. Without a nuclear deterrent, Israel will depend on the US for its security. If it is the US disarming them in a deceitful, surprise attack the Israelis have little reason to hold back anything. Let the irradiated survivors of Syria, Iran & Hezbollah take their best shot. Disarming the Israelis won’t make them back down, it will make them more likely to secure peace through clearing & holding defensible fields of fire (e.g., the Sinai in 1967), and reducing their potential opponents by an order of magnitude or two. The West Bank, Gaza and southern Lebanon would be depopulated, either by forced migration or by just plain force. There’s one thing the IDF knows: Never Again. There is no conventional force in the ME that is their peer, particularly when they feel like they are fighting for survival.
In other words, if you’re right, the decapitation had best be complete or the retribution will be the biggest war since 1973, and we’ll all have to buy new maps. I fully believe the Israelis would die on their feet rather than live on their knees. We can set Iran back by a couple of years with a conventional attack. I doubt our ability to hit every Israeli target on the list without them knowing about it much more than I doubt our ability to monkeywrench Iran’s nuclear program.
Subotai,
PAC-3 radars may well have more coverage but the missiles themselves are practically point-defense. 15-20km stated range, vs 70+km for PAC-2.
Obama wants regime change in Jerusalem, but he’s unable to get it. The Israeli public and the parties do not trust him.
He’s thrown Israel under the bus, and as a result the Israelis, knowing that Obam plans to not only not defend them (no one believes Hillary) but attack them to DEFEND IRAN.
Likely, Israel will ignore anything Obama says and do a first strike nuclear action against Iran, aiming to kill as many as possible to eradicate the nuclear program.
Since it must either simply play for time in the Ghetto before the “Obama Solution” or kill to survive. Its that simple.
Something Obama did not figure.
Moreover, Health Care IS about power, but it cuts both ways.
You could win huge majorities by promising free mammograms, breast cancer screening, etc. by simply deporting 20 million Mexicans illegally in the US, and excluding 10 million on welfare.
ObamaCare mandates half the doctors out of Med School be Black. Rather than the best. THAT can be used against him, and Dems, in a huge advantage.
Obama’s race is a two edged sword. A campaign ad marking the requirement that HALF THE DOCTORS BE BLACK rather than THE BEST, with the various “Ebonics” speakers would certainly generate charges of racism.
It would also be terribly effective. It paints Obama, fairly, and Dems, as “race men” determined to screw over the White middle/working class and divides votes along the 66% of the population that is White. Almost none but the terribly wealthy would vote for Dems, all the rest Reps.
If Reps are the “White Party” then that has advantages as well, not the least of which is that Whites who cannot change their skin color to the “preferred” color of Black or at least Hispanic, CANNOT AFFORD NOT TO BE THE ULTRA-DOMINANT POPULATION under ObamaCare.
Its your life, and miserable death, for a White man or woman, if you don’t maintain ABSOLUTE WHITE MAJORITIES to insure “first in line” status for health care.
This means, in effect, deportation of everyone that can be possibly arranged who is not White (this was done by FDR as part of the New Deal, forgotten now) and exclusion of the Black population from socialism (as FDR also did in suppressing the Pulman Porters Union, forgotten as well).
70. Subotai Bahadur:
I’m in a bit bigger town, a little more on the plains. I think it is becoming ever more important to start forging allies and making contacts where I can. I would really appreciate it if you’d drop me a line to cetera @t gmail d0t com.
Darren, Subotai, all:
This reminds me of why I was so incredulous at Stratfor’s apparent recommendation (blogged about by Wretchard) that since Iran is such a tough nut, the US should dump Israel (and “moderate” Arab states) in its favor. Now it is true that Israel is small and has no oil, but it is a world-class technological and scientific powerhouse, rivaled per capita only by the US (see eg The Israel Test) (as well as possessing a large nuclear arsenal). If we were to dump Israel, it would quite understandably look for another ally, somewhat desperately.
Possible scenario: we face off with China over the Taiwan straits. Their armed forces, which massively outnumber ours, are armed with cutting-edge Israeli military technology. On the other hand, we are supported by a bunch of mullahs denouncing the “Great Oriental Satan.” Yes, this sure sounds like a great trade-off to me.
Another scenario: Israel, desperate for friends and cash, puts nuclear weapons and technology on the market. Given that the Israeli brand is justifiably superior to AQ Khan’s and that our betrayal of Israel has made it clear we are an undependable ally, how long is it before countries such as Poland, Georgia, Vietnam, Ethiopia, Argentina, etc are the proud owners of nuclear ICBMs? Oh, what a wonderful world that will be!
In short, some running dogs of American imperialism are best left unkicked, even by their Yankee masters.
Bob, there is only one way Israel would proliferate nukes. It involves targeting codes.
As for allies, China not likely. India very likely.
“ObamaCare mandates half the doctors out of Med School be Black.”
Source, please.
49erDweet.
I belong to the PCUSA. I’ve been duking it with their social justice creeps for decades.
If they’ve been on the right side of an issue, I haven’t seen it.
I used to bug some of the folks at the head shed.
“Is there any matter of US foreign or military policy in which the PCUSA and the Soviets disagree?”
There were many, of course, in which one side or the other didn’t have a public position. But none where both sides had a position and we disagreed.
If a bunch of SDS types had gotten quicky divinity degrees and taken over the PCUSA, how could you tell?
Whiskey, are you trollin’?
Or is it supposed to be full moon tonight?
Alternatively, please check the thermometer and take aspirin… I am worried about your health.
twobyfour (#94): Cute line. Israel would obviously be averse to proliferation, but if desperate enough, it might resort to proliferation as a penultimate step.
As to allies, while we both (along with the Israeli government, presumably) would prefer an Israel-India alliance, and while it “makes more sense,” remember that Israel would be looking (and I again emphasize the word “desperately”) for a great-power ally. India, for all its qualities, does not yet have the means, or even much of the drive. Would China ally with Israel? Conventional wisdom says they would prefer to stay in the good graces of oil-producing Muslim states. On the other hand, (i) the Stratfor recommendation means that they would lose their Iran investment (ii) they are becoming big enough to secure oil supplies regardless (iii) Israel would provide them with the means necessary for an immediate Great Leap Forward.
And before we get bogged down in details, my point is simply that before we abandon an ally with Israel’s assets, we should remember the famous words of one of the foremost American scientists of the last century: “Don’t make me desperate. You wouldn’t like me when I’m desperate.”
I’ll just reiterate my original opinion about the Herald Scotland article that I suspect it maybe disinformation. It is standard operating procedure for national intelligence agencies to plant disinformation in obscure leftist newspapers. These obscure newspapers will publish any tripe that falls their way, particularly if it has an anti-American slant.
Rather than seeing this article as a veiled threat against Israel, it’s probably more useful to ask why this disinformation was released at this particular time and what was the intent. Also, I suspect it’s an error to see Obama as a creator of deep and cynical Machiavellian schemes. IMHO, Obama isn’t that bright and doesn’t have the intellectual depth for weaving deep and intricate schemes. He’s more an air-head high school cheerleader than a Machiavelli. Along this line, I would prefer having Dick Cheney as president right now but you can’t have everything.
Eggplant, there’s no disagreement with you on my part. I’m just discussing hypotheticals.
Regarding the article you mentioned (comment #37), whether it is accurate or not: (i) I tend to disagree with Subotai’s proposal that this is aimed at Israel. I don’t think I’m a prisoner of wishful thinking or conventional wisdom. (ii) As to why this buildup or misinformation is taking place, your guess is as good as mine. Possibles:
(i) Actual buildup for a strike on Iran
(ii) indicating to Iran that we mean business
(iii) indicating to the world that we mean business, so they should compromise on sanctions
(iv) indicating to Israel, truthfully or not, that we mean business, so they should hold off on unilateral actions
(v) indicating to the likes of ourselves that something is being done, no, really, they’re not merely incompetent dilettantes!
(vi) we are getting ready to invade France.
Darren, googling to try to confirm Pat-3 range, and … unclear. Are you sure about that limited range? Apparently the original version was extended at some point.
In any case, I think a US attack against Israel would target mostly airfields, not nuclear sites, assuming we know where they are and they are not hardened and defended too well in any case.
On the shipment of bunker busters to Diego Garcia, well, why not? B-2s fly out of there, and it’s on the way to other mid-east and asian sites. It doesn’t have to be a sign of much of anything but prepositioning. I was more surprised by the reported quantities – and modest sizes – than by the location.
PapaRay, you forgot something!
BUY MORE AMMO!
Josh,
Did Google, am pretty sure. PAC-3 is 1/4 the size (diameter) of PAC-2. Completely different missile from the PAC-1/2, just uses the same launcher, only with four missiles per cell instead of one. Can’t really get more range out of less rocket.
I looked up the BLU numbers for the “bunker busters” described in the article. If 1000lb and 2000lb moderately-hardened bomb cases designed to penetrate up to 6 feet of concrete are the worst we have, the Iranians and Israelis are plenty safe. These are just somewhat-hardened dumb bombs to which a JDAM kit will be affixed. This is not the kind of weapon you go at Natanz with, that would be something like the BLU-116, the BLU-113, or the GBU-57 (the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, designed for the B-2).
Buncha’ ignorant lefties.
What’s the point of modest penetrators in Diego Garcia?
Is that where the heavies which are stooging around the Afghan sky are based?
I think so. If so, we’re replenishing their magazines.
Significance?
The only significance is that the word got out.
And we don’t know for sure if it was on purpose or not.
The brouhaha over the Hurva synagogue is the typical Arab response when things don’t go their way. Read the wikipedia article on the Hurva Synagogue for details on its history. The building is in the Jewish quarter of the old city of Jerusalem, so not in an area that would be under negotiations for possible return to the Pals. The synagogue was considered the most important synagogue in Israel in recent centuries. It is a testament to the Israeli ability not to agree on things that this site was recovered over 40 years ago and has only been rebuilt now.
The site of the synagogue is on a hillside near the temple mount and its elevation is higher than that of the mosques on the temple mount. This has always stuck in the Moslem’s craw. Their statements that the renovation of this synagogue portends an Israeli attempt to rebuild the Jewish temple on the Temple Mount is the usual political nonsense from the Arabs. This has been a rallying cry of the Muslims in the region for a hundred years. It’s just part of the Arab attack on Israel’s legitimacy. It seems likely that the PA and PM Fayyad as well have been encouraging Arabs to riot in Jerusalem to put pressure on Israel.
Regarding the dust-up over the unfortunate announcement regarding building in Jerusalem during Biden’s visit it seems clear that the administration is going over the top on this. In fact the whole thing is their fault. They have no workable plan for peace negotiations and their main strategy over the past year has been to make unreasonable demands of Israel. At best the administration has built a house of cards. It shouldn’t be a surprise that a gust of wind has blown it down. By making these unreasonable demands regarding Israeli building over the green line they make it impossible for Israel to completely comply and they make it easy for the Pals to refuse to do anything. Not exactly a plan for success. Maybe they only want some compromises from Israel, but if so they shouldn’t make their maximalist demands in public.
Curiously in today’s jpost there’s an editorial in which they recommend that Netanyahu do his best to accede to the US demands. It should be obvious to all that if Netanyahu were to agree to stop the building in this little orthodox Jewish neighborhood in Jerusalem his govt could fall. Maybe that’s what Obama wants but in the end I don’t see Netanayu giving in on that point. Maybe others though.
Regarding a US attack on Israel. Come on. It would result in the destruction of the Democratic party and probably make it impossible for Obama to get any kind of legislation passed ever again. At any rate it’s not the action of a first term president that wants a second term. There’s just too much support for Israel in the Congress and in the country. What would the Japanese, the Koreans, the Taiwanese think about their future with an ally like that? It would have a high likelihood of going nuclear quickly. I don’t really think that O cares too much about foreign policy anyway. I don’t think he wants to go down in history as the president that provoked a nuclear attack on the US by attacking an ally. Attacking Israel isn’t going to happen.
#102 Josh:
In any case, I think a US attack against Israel would target mostly airfields, not nuclear sites, assuming we know where they are and they are not hardened and defended too well in any case.
Israel does not have that many airfields, and they are rather well mapped. And for disarming purposes, one would not have to hit too many. Their nuclear certified aircraft units are concentrated on a few [5]known bases. If they disperse, it is in and of itself a strategic warning.
The bulk of the Israeli deterrent is missile based, in hardened tunnels on TEL’s. The Ummah does not have the ability to pull off a successful counterforce first strike, and to be honest they are only really interested in countervalue. We do have that ability. A disarmed Israel would be overwhelmed by its neighbors; which will be cause for celebratory waigyu beef and Mouton Rothschild 1947 in the White House.
I do note that I made a point of emphasizing if the article is right in #37 above. If it is not, the specific threat implied in the article is void. But from the Israeli point of view the possibility of something similar has to be considered and taken seriously. Obviously, with the other points brought up, the United States is not an ally, a friend, or a neutral. The United States has become a functional and all but formal co-belligerent against Israel.
And yes, if the strike is not 100% successful, there will be hell to pay. However, if it is an Obama initiative, he will surely assume that it obviously work perfectly. He is “Teh One”, after all. That means he is the Größter Feldherr aller Zeiten.
It would not take more than 6 nuclear weapons to destroy the Ummah as an entity, albeit not instantaneously. Every additional available warhead on target would speed the process and make it more complete, by one estimate up to a total of 5 short range missiles, 39 medium range missiles all with on warhead each [44] + 12 cruise missiles + 12 gravity bombs. Which properly employed would have the optimum effect.
An attack by us would make us subject to counter action. Depending on the nature of the surviving Israeli force, there are a number of counterstrike modalities, direct and indirect. It will NOT be pleasant if it were to occur. And if they decide to go full “Samson Option”; being in the EU, Russia, or China may not be pleasant either, given their support for Israel’s enemies in the past.
One point to draw from this, even if we are not planning something along what I drew out [and once again, the rational strategic indicators are that Israel is far more at risk for an attack by the US than Iran] at this moment; our entire policy of pushing Israel’s back to the wall bears risks for all that are not being taken into account.
Subotai Bahadur
OH BOTHER! in # 107 I failed to properly close the bold html code after if the article is right and it will not take my edit changing it. Sorry.
Subotai Bahadur
#37 Any comments?
Subotai Bahadur
“Now there arose a new king over Egypt, who did not know Joseph. And he said to his people, “Behold, the people of Israel are too many and too mighty for us. Come, let us deal shrewdly with them, lest they multiply, and, if war breaks out, they join our enemies and fight against us…” Exodus 1:8-10
SB, six nukes cannot wipe out the population or infrastructure across a third of the world.
Though, as they say about a busfull of lawyers, it’s a start.
“Regarding a US attack on Israel. Come on. It would result in the destruction of the Democratic party and probably make it impossible for Obama to get any kind of legislation passed ever again.”
The same thing can be said for the “Slaughter Option” the Democrats are seriously considering.
My guess is that Obama will likely not attack Israel directly, however I would not be surprised at all to have him defend Iran against an Israeli attack using US military assets, or make things very difficult for the Israelis in other ways prior to an Israeli attack on Iran if possible.
“The message of the (Islamic) Revolution is global, and is not restricted to a specific place or time. It is a human message, and it will move forward. Have no doubt … Allah willing, Islam will conquer what? It will conquer all the mountain tops of the world.”
- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, July 25, 2005.
“The world of Islam has been mobilized against America for the past 25 years. The peoples call, “death to America.” Who used to say “death to America?” Who, besides the Islamic Republic and the Iranian people, used to say this? Today, everyone says this.”
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, June 24, 2004
“Some 10,000 people have registered their names to carry out martyrdom operations on our defined targets… Our targets are mainly the occupying American and British forces in the holy Iraqi cities, all the Zionists in Palestine, and Salman Rushdie.”
- Mohammad Ali Samadi, Spokesperson, Committee for the Commemoration of Martyrs of the Global Islamic Campaign, June 5, 2004
“Islam makes it incumbent on all adult males, provided they are not disabled or incapacitated, to prepare themselves for the conquest of countries so that the writ of Islam is obeyed in every country in the world… those who study Islamic Holy War will understand why Islam wants to conquer the whole world.”
- Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini
Bob,
“At least there is one area in which the US maintains a clear and decisive lead – the military. Nobody comes close. No navy. No air force. No army. We’re number one.
The trouble with being number one in military power is that you need to find a way to pay for it. Which brings to mind a recent book by Thomas F. Madden, Empires of Trust. We spent the weekend sitting in a wicker chair by the pool reading it, drinking lime sodas and red wine.”
our palaces are ready to wellcome you, we even lowered ourr euro so that you wouldn’t be too penalized
http://tinyurl.com/yfze4l2
and “tout va bien dans le meilleur des mondes possibles”
“Iranians much prefer U.S. technology to Russian nuclear knowhow.”
all friend now:
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2010/03/what_iran_throu/
so… I’m looking for my qat too
#110 Josh:
The Ummah as an entity is not just population or infrastructure. Think Aikido.
Subotai Bahadur
There’s a simple comparison, to help you understand what you see. This is when a strong man has a wife who screams at him. And, his reaction is just not to respond. There’s a reason for this. The person who remains calm when all about him is lunacy, actually wins. And, can walk out and shut the door closed. The woman? She’ll eventually be diagnosed with PMS.
Over in arab-land, you’d see that the arabs are very sensitive. So, Israel believes why brag about battles won? It’s easier to say, “you won.” And, then stay mum.
You think Sherlock in Dubai didn’t get American and/or British help in reviewing the videos of so many disguised Israelis? I believe it was used as a learning curve. To see what the Dubai setup was; knowing it was loaded with informers. I also know that “during whatever happened to Mahboo; for a full 20 minutes, nothing got recorded. And, yes, Sherlock in Dubai said “the Israelis used some very sophisticated electronics.
Sure, a lot of people think Israel’s under threat of another war. But I don’t. I think if there needs to be any response it will be similar to this “day of rage” that had more than enough soldiers in the street to return calm very quickly. While not bragging too much. Let it go.
Subotai (#107), if you’ll allow me to spin your hypothesis in a more nuanced way that I consider more plausible:
The Administration (and it is not alone in this) does not want a hot (that is to say hotter) war with Iran.
It (and it is …) believes that a nuclear-armed Iran can be contained.
It believes that an Israeli strike on Iran will result in said war.
It follows that Israel must be dissuaded/prevented from striking Iran.
At first such dissuasion can be achieved by cajoling, promising, lying, etc. But as the situation gets more critical, it will (has) become necessary to actually forbid Israel from striking, under pain of having its strike intercepted by American forces.
Such an interception need not involve actual fighting: given how close-run a thing a conventional strike will be, the Israelis will realize that American interference will be enough to tip the Iranians off and ruin any element of surprise. (And the US will have done nothing “wrong.” It won’t have attacked Israeli forces and it won’t have formally cooperated with Iran; it will merely have scrambled forces in response to unidentified and unauthorized incoming warplanes.)
Since a conventional Israeli strike can thus be averted by the Americans, Israel might, in desperation, decide to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Iranian facilities.
The Administration must thus warn Israel that usage of nuclear weapons is an absolute no-no. In fact, such usage would be viewed as so horrendous that the US would see itself as justified and obliged to strike at Israel in such a way as to eliminate its nuclear capabilities. (After all, if Israel may attack Iran for nuclear threats, what should be done to those who have actually used nuclear weapons…?)
Since such a possibility is so extreme, the Administration would need to convey its seriousness to Israel. One way of doing so would be to leak that the necessary ordnance is being readied at the appropriate locations.
Voila! No fighting necessary. None of this even has to be public. The Administration can continue coasting while avoiding (greater) hostilities, Iran merely becomes another rogue state with nuclear weapons, and Israel becomes even more dependent on the US. The middle part is indeed mildly unfortunate, but other than that, win-win.
That is unless Israel, in desperation, decides to call this bluff, if it is one.
Marie Claude (#113):
On the plus side, things could be worse.
On the minus side, they probably will be.
Bob,
1. Obama’s preception of America does not include the direct threat of nuclear annihilation by Iran that Israel is under. It would be the height of arrogance, and I grant you that Obama is supremely arrogant, for Obama to presume that another nation’s destruction can be sacrificed for his pursuit of an illusionary peace deal with Iran.
2. Your analysis presumes a logical well thought strategy by Buraq and his silly advisors. How does the coddling of the murdering mullahs fit into this “containment”? What benefits has this strategy reaped so far? When has Buraq ever invested a tremendous amount of his own energy or time to solve a problem, particularly one that benefits someone else? The guy so far is way too busy giving speeches, and partying with his thug friends to do that.
What gets me is that the left’s strategies like the one you laid out never allow for the worst case scenario. What happens if Buraq’s strategy, as you describe it, is wrong?
Well…
Petraeus Denies CENTCOM Land Grab
All is well, to bed, hopefully not to dream.
Papa Ray
Curiously David Petraeus has made some remarks lately along the lines of ‘The Arab-Israeli conflict hurts America’s ability to advance its interests in the Middle East, fomenting anti-American sentiment and limiting America’s strategic partnerships with Arab governments.” These remarks were repeated by Biden in Israel last week when he said that Israel’s actions endangered US soldiers in Iraq and Iran.
Is Petraeus becoming a political hack on the side of Obama? Does he really believe this tripe? Is this just another way to pressure Israel to not attack Iran?
There’s an article in jpost today on this
http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?id=171255
Unsk (#118), don’t get me wrong. All I was doing was hypothesizing a possible Administration approach. My own take on such an approach would be “it’s worse than a crime; it’s a mistake.” And obviously so.
Thursday’s morning coffee read or in my case, V8 juice, Tabasco sauce, Black pepper and Vodka.
STATEMENT OF GENERAL DAVID H. PETRAEUS, U.S. ARMY COMMANDER U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND BEFORE THE SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE ON THE POSTURE OF U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND 16 MAR 2010 FOR OFFICIAL…
McCain got his questions in.
Papa Ray
#114 Subotai Bahadur: I’m not sure what you have in mind, but I’m going to make a guess.
Mecca, Medina, Qom, Tehran, Islamabad, Cairo. The three holy sites (the fourth is unfortunately not available as a target) and the three most populous cities in the Islamic Middle East. That should do it. Followed by sending in the bulldozers to knock down all the satanic filth in the holiest city of two great religions.
Unsk@28
I doubt he has a grand plan, but Buarq still can do a great deal of damage.
You mean all that has transpired during his reign to ruin US did so by accident? I don’t know about the grand plan, but his intent to be opportunistically malicious is proving effective.
Fletcher, Subotai (#123):
I see that you’re playing a game I like to call “Damages.”
Moderate Iranian leader Rafsanjani: “An atomic bomb would not leave any thing in Israel but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world.”
#123 Fletcher Christian & #125 Bob:
Close, but not dead on. [although, there is the saying that close counts in relation to horseshoes, hand grenades, and tactical nukes]. Consider the nature of the 5 Pillars of Islam as they relate to the structure of the faith.
Moderate Iranian leader Rafsanjani: “An atomic bomb would not leave any thing in Israel but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world.”
Leaving aside the detail that a “moderate” Iranian leader is only moderate in the sense that Molotov was a “moderate” Soviet leader; it is a matter of leverage and application.
Subotai Bahadur
Josh @ 43:
The military is programmed to take and execute orders, even orders they don’t like, from people they don’t like. If they were given misinformation that would seem to justify the action, yes they’d execute the orders.
Only the top commanders would need convincing, and they are politicians as much as (or even more than) warriors.
Old Salt @ 50:
It makes you more of a hawk than all but a handful of Jews, inside Israel or out.
Darren @ 89:
Why do you believe this?
1. Look at how many Americans would rather live on their knees. What makes you think Israelis are different?
2. Look at the Israeli left. Do you think they believe as you hope? If they did Israel wouldn’t be in the shape it is today.
Subotai (#126):
Within the context of his quote, “moderate” was indeed obviously intended as tongue-in-cheek.
Speaking of which, I’m not sure what is more surprising: that our urbane “elites” equate “urbane” with “politically moderate,” or that our Jihadist enemies do such a bad job, if any, at urbanity.
Subotai, Eggplant:
Here is a link to a post addressing the veracity of that Scottish Herald report that got us started.
Bob,
We already knew that the Scottish Herald newspaper was a disreputable source. No one here was accepting their information as proof of an imminent American attack on Iran but rather as reason to consider what the US could do from that position. The Commentary piece does not refute the basic claims about infrastructure upgrades and weapons prepositioning. If any of that is true, and it should be possible to either source or refute some of it without getting security wallahs to excited, then the subsequent speculation of Subotai Bahadur stands.
Lifeofthemind, no argument from me.
Re #126 Subotai Bahadur:
Two things here. Firstly, who said anything about tacnukes? A nice big, dirty megaton-range groundburst would be far more useful in this context. Countervalue, not counterforce; and in this particular case the fallout is a feature, not a bug.
Secondly, could you either tell us what you had in mind or give us another clue?
Getting US pilots to bomb Israel is easy: just use carrier strikes. There is a clear strain of anti-Israel animus in the USN because of USS Liberty.
I have personally heard a US naval attache to Europe stand on a stage and say that “There is only one democracy in the middle east, and that is Egypt. Because in Israel only Jews get to vote!”
Richard Aubrey (#96)
What? You mean that’s not what actually happened???
Subotai mentioned the “Samson Option”. The assumption is that Israel will use its nukes as a last ditch maneuver to bring down the temple around them but does anyone consider that Israel has some of the most advanced biochemists and geneticists in the world? What would the world be like if Israel left a Pandora’s Box with a “deadman switch” that opened after their annihilation?
Kirk.
Come to think of it, I don’t really know.
It will not surprise you to discover that the PCUSA, like all lib Prot denominations, is shrinking fast, has been since they decided to make Angela Davis a righteous martyr.
Their General Assemblies are generally assembled downwind from the anesthesia factory and if a staffer doesn’t score above 98th percentile in the hypocrisy bloc on his ER, he can start looking for a congregation.
If I had more time, I’d tell you what I really think.
#134 Fletcher Christian
Sorry, you took literally what I meant as a throwaway line. The modified saying was common amongst some circles of my acquaintance [yes, I moved in some unorthodox circles] referring to the use of tactical nukes in Germany in the event the Soviets came west. It referenced the sad detail that the radius of damage of the nukes we had was larger than the average distance between villages and towns.
I believe you are a Brit, and since we are two people separated by a common language, you may not have heard the original American colloquial phrase, “Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.” This refers to an American lawn game of pitching literal metal horseshoes for accuracy. Landing within a certain small distance of the target stake will get you some points, but not the maximum. And of course hand grenades are thrown area weapons that do not require a direct hit. The “tactical nukes” was added by us. The implication of the phrase being that “close” is not good enough in almost all endeavors, you need to achieve a direct hit.
Megaton range may be gilding the lily a wee bit, but jacketed devices designed to make the green glass into a nightlight for several generations and having any breeding life forms in the vicinity come out with body plans not seen since the Burgess Shales were laid down would be on point.
Consider two related concepts. Every culture, society, community, or whatever has both forces and processes that bind it together, and centrifugal forces pulling it apart. These are not necessarily tied to specific population masses or specific urban concentrations. Religion can, and in the case of Islam is, one of the binding forces. But the nature of the religion can itself have fault lines. The 5 Pillars of Islam contain enough information to figure that part out. The other binding forces are also subject to interdiction in such a way as to give the centrifugal forces primacy.
Further this deponent sayeth not in any detail, unless to someone who speaks SIOP professionally, or who may have the acronym ZAHAL as part of their job title. That last because nothing I have come up with is classified, or involves US forces; the study being from the point of view of Israel.
Subotai Bahadur
135) Ursus
“There is a clear strain of anti-Israel animus in the USN because of USS Liberty. ”
Maybe 40 years ago; definitely not anymore.
Richard A.,
I say that only half jokingly, based not just on the actions and postures of the denominational leadership, but also on the testimony of a friend of mine, ordained in the denomination, who attended seminary in the late 60′s. He said the student population at that time was very, ahem, “interesting”, which he attributed to the draft-avoidance benefit of being a seminary student.
I should note that the reason I manage to tolerate being where I am is that we are members of a fairly evangelical congregation, in a fairly evangelical corner of the denomination. As for the denominational doings, let me just paraphrase the rabbi from Fiddler: “May the Lord bless and keep the General Assembly….. far away from us!”
Kirk Parker, who owns the buildings in your denomination? The locals, the General Assembly, something else?
Thanks
Kent,
Don’t know, I’ll need to ask to be sure, but I think it’s not the locals.
Ursus Maritimus and exhelodrvr,
Antisemitism is not caused by something like the Liberty Incident. It exists prior to or independently of such an event and then those who express it will latch onto any context or historical incident that is convenient. Very rarely will an adult who feels personally traumatized by such an event react by expressing generalized hostility to a community. Most people who were witnesses to 9-11 are at most conflicted about the role of Islam and are unwilling to express a general hostility to Arabs.
To be blogged as “A Note on Prejudice.”
Subotai (#139):
Ah, memories of the dearly departed (solely in the blogosphere) Gedanken Pundit… (re jacketed bombs).
Ursus (#135):
Would it be wise to throw US carrier air wings against Israeli air-superiority fighters? (No disrespect intended, I hasten to add. In fact, after clicking submit, I think I’ll head to my undisclosed-location bunker.)
Lifeofthemind (#144): Indeed.