The assassination of a top Hamas commander, Mahmoud al-Mabhou, in the UAE by a team of 11 exemplifies the application of the human hit team. This effort used all the classic elements: fake documents, surveillance teams, a small assasination unit and a quick exit. There is even the suggestion that the Hamas commander may have bee interrogated by his attackers. The blame is being laid at the doorstep of the Israeli secret services simply by process of elimination. After all, who else is in the business of targeting terrorists?
Rivals within the terror community for one. But the United States is also in the business of hitting terrorists on an industrial scale. In terms of sheer efficiency it is hard to beat the “death from above” method of raining down guided missiles from UAVs upon terrorist suspects. There are no lookouts in corridors, no passports to forge, no picking of locks. The bolt comes down right through the ceiling. The London Times says al-Qaeda’s leadership has been decimated by Predator strikes.
Why doesn’t America use skilled humans like the supposed Israeli hit team? For two reasons: somehow, for causes social scientists have yet to explain, using people to kill people creates a public revulsion but blowing them up from a robot circling tens of thousands of feet above is politically acceptable. The second reason for not sending men after men is that the public has a similar revulsion to taking prisoners of whom you demand questions. The prisoners themselves may sue you for failing to Mirandize them. Three Navy SEALS are facing court martial for striking a member of al-Qaeda and cutting his lip. Blowing him to smithreens from above would have been less controversial and so things are done that way. The Alameda County Progressive Examiner say President Obama has ordered more drone hits since taking office than President Bush did in three years.
Marc Thiessen, writing in Foreign Policy says the political convience of assassination by drone has made it the wonder-drug of counterterrorism, so much so that the intelligence dimension of taking prisoners has been all but written off. Thiessen writes:
Today, the Obama administration is no longer attempting to capture men like these alive; it is simply killing them. This may be satisfying, but it comes at a price. With every drone strike that vaporizes a senior al Qaeda leader, actionable intelligence is vaporized along with him. Dead terrorists can’t tell you their plans to strike America.
Dead men tell no tales. But at least they give you no political grief and for many that’s the thing: perhaps the only thing. Of course technology is making attack by robot still easier. In the not so distant future, America will send robot insects after terror suspects. From the point of view of lethality, the assassins of Mahmoud al-Mabhou are anachronisms. From an intelligence point of view, it is the Predator drone which is less than ideal.
Below are two videos demonstrating the two ways of achieving similar but subtly different ends each reflecting the preferences, capabilities and political realities of the societies that undergird them.
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Using Men to Hunt Men
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Nano-nano
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Wretchard,
it was in the UAE, not Qatar, where the assassination took place. I know the hotel in Dubai where it happened very well. It’s the home of my favorite cafe, The More. When I first moved to Dubai I used to meet there every so often with a group of ex-pat bloggers called informally known as the Conclave. Included among there number was the estimable Secret Dubai, as well as The Emirates Economist, my colleague at the American University. I’ve lived in Doha, Qatar since 2007 and though it is often compared to Dubai, they differ in many important regards. On thing they do have in common is visits from the Clintons. Bill has spoken at American University of Dubai on a few occasions. Hillary was just on our campus in Doha this week, i.e. at Carnegie Mellon University in Qatar.
If you’re going to go the “repeated assassination” route…
It’s a lot more effective if you aim for the competent ones, and leave the idiots alone. Don’t interrupt the ones who are making mistakes.
starling, thanks. I’ll correct the mistake asap. That’s embarassing. Glad you pointed it out.
It would be a bit messy to use a missile to take out a guy in the UAE in a flash hotel, Wretchard.
In some places UAVs and missiles are really stupid, especially given no plausible deniability.
Uncle Sam tends to be clumsy and make a big bang. Good for shock and awe but my money is on Mossad and their MO.
Have you seen any Hellfire missiles taking out Iranian nuclear scientists lately?
Didn’t think so.
We need to polish our act but before we do that we need to start busting people and organisations like the NYT when they reveal classified information likely to sabotage our efforts in this long war.
A life time ago I had observed at the juncture of State, Army and CIA, that the people that could kill, weren’t traveled and were suspiciously fit. The one’s that could pass, couldn’t kill, and none of them liked anyone, and who wants to risk a pension before a Senate Committee?
Anyways, you don’t have to kill every Nazi General, or VC cadre to reduce an organization, to disorganization.
Al Qaeda had a good run. Building up funds, cadre, leadership, successes. All that is ripped apart, dead, gone. And, we have better Predators, informants, techniques, with as you said, our very own Hope and Change approving the…’dismemberment’.
Yeah, we are Grant to Al Qaeda’s Lee, but how did that turn out? Who’s the strong horse now Osama?
I have been saying for a while, and so have no few others, that the equation is pretty simple: Make it more and more and more of a pain-in-the-a\\ to capture prisoners, to interrogate prisoners, to house prisoners (as at Gitmo)…. make that more and more difficult, and what’s gonna happen –
All of a sudden a bunch of people are going to start looking for war fighting alternatives that don’t include taking prisoners.
And now….. the number of prisoners is way down, while the outright battlefield killings are going up. Gosh, hooda thunk?
Another grand victory for the “human rights” (‘tsha!)brigades.
I think it disgusting that CNN treats Hamas terrorists as rock stars. The comment that al-Mabhou continues to watch over the Gazans from the posters plastered all over the place made me want to retch. What guidance did he provide – that happiness is being a slave of Allah?
It is difficult to reconcile a belief in the sanctity of human life with the opposing feeling that the human condition has been improved with the destruction of al-Mabhou. Is there not a point at which the al-Mabhous of this world forfeit their humanity to become an enemy of mankind? Could civilization continue to exist if it were otherwise?
“The Alameda County Progressive Examiner say President Obama has ordered more drone hits since taking office than President Bush did in three years.”
Hmmm, maybe he thought they said bong hits…
You are correct Wretchard, actually killing all of these Talib and Quetta shura leaders is to provide cover for those in power here and in Europe. If we were to capture and waterboard these vermin it would come to light that yes we have treasonous individuals in our govt.
As a side note has anyone else noticed that when 0 goes into preacher mode he sounds a lot like Elvis?
Sorta related, but sorta OT…
Why is the thought that the ‘leaders’ of the certain governments might just have ‘accidents’ never mentioned. It would seem to make occupying the head of state position not only uncomfortable but a non-objective.
Similarly, wrt the Uranium enrichment centrifuge bucket brigade. They run on electricity and it must be generated and transmitted to these ‘super safe underground bunkers’.
Whack the power plants or whack the distribution network and the centrifuges spin down. Takes a while to get ‘em going again, and it takes a while to rebuild power plants and distribution networks.
Even a toppled tower or a exploded steam line can cause interruptions to their task.
Can one of the well informed here mention why such tasks are not undertaken discretely?
tom
“for causes social scientists have yet to explain”
I think that’s simple – when an actual human being does the killing, the ones who sent him can’t avoid thinking that this man has personal responsibility for the act, and that through him they have responsibility as well. That’s very disconcerting for people who have never dealt with issues of life and death seriously, who go through life following the kind of moral imperatives found on the average fortune cookie.
On the other hand, when a machine does the work it’s just another video game – it’s just one’a'them thangs, no one’s personally responsible, it can all be put off on the system, on the machine. Machines have no morality, freeing those who direct them from any guilt at their use.
I do believe that this may be the greatest moral weakness of America, and Americans at all levels. We generally subscribe to a squeamish, self righteous morality that tells us that hard decisions don’t have to be made, and hard actions don’t have to be taken. However, they do, and even we can’t escape that fact. So societally we don’t change our attitudes – we dodge that reality by coming up with impersonal means and devices which can do our dirty work for us and which we use without attaching any blame to ourselves.
And in this we often end up acting in ways far more brutal and callous than those who take personal responsibility for ALL of their actions ever would. When we kill as a society, we prefer to kill in ways that allow us to never see the victims face.
Though they can kill innocents which can cause problems, drone hits also offer less risk. Drone hits also do not get captured, are not dragged through the streets, and are not shown on TV begging for mercy before they are beheaded.
In an odd way, it’s but one of the many ways that the “left” and the “right” approach enemy combatants.
The left tends to see enemy combatants as something akin to members of a “street gang”, in a manner of speaking.
Young, disenfranchised youth…outcast from higher society due to poverty, lack of access to the “privileges” of the “rich”…looking for a sense of belonging.
These “root causes” cause immense and intense feelings of cognitive dissonance for leftists, because of the intent of this particular gang, is to maim and murder everyone in the society to which they belong. The further left you go on the spectrum…the more “ok” this is, by the way.
Thus, we see how leftists “prosecute” the offensive and defensive operations against enemy combatants. If they capture them…they mirandize them. Street gangs commit street crimes.
They remove the spectre of “military” justice and replace it with the protections of civilian lawyering.
When they target the “leadership” of the “criminal enterprise”, they do so from 35,000 feet. With a predator robot, not a human pilot. This sanitizes the operation…it’s not personal, it’s business.
Moreover, it removes the need to explain any “losses” of boots on the ground. Lefist media types are unlikely to put up any “grim milestones” if you keep boots off the ground. If you have cover from the entrenched media and you contain the information…you never have any political blowback.
…………..If they get him, in their sights, BOOM, BOOM…..out go the lights.
OORHaaa Mossad!
This discussion of eliminating hostiles reminds me of a conversation I had with my teenage daughter over the weekend. She is taking a high school ethics class and they recently covered Utilitarianism. She was presented with the following situation: An American , Bill, was walking through the jungles of Central America. He stumbles upon an outlaw, Francisco, who has 20 peasants at gunpoint. Francisco says, “Ah, an American! Sir, I give you the opportunity of a lifetime. I was planning to kill all 20 of these peasants, but I give you the opportunity to shoot just one and save the other 19.” What should Bill do?
My first response was, agree to do the deed, accept the rifle from Francisco and dispatch him and free the peasants. I was told that wasn’t an option. When the teacher asked the class who thought that Bill should kill one to save 19, everyone raised their hands. When he asked who among the class would do so, only one kid raised his hand. My daughter said that after the class, several of them discussed the situation at lunch. A few of them agreed that they wanted to raise their hand the second time, but didn’t think they were capable to taking a life and living with that decision. They decided that they were being selfish and that was costing innocent people lives. In the end they were happy not to have to make such a decision in real life.
While there may be many who can see the need to kill other human beings, only a small number of people in a group are prepared to accept that as a task they might be called on to carry out. And I suspect that even among those who think it is necessary, an even smaller subset could actually do it.
Oh, and the kid in class who had no qualms with killing the one to save the others? Yeah, he was berated by classmates – the vocal leftards who claimed killing is never the answer. All that is needed for evil to succeed is for good men to do nothing. There it is, in microcosm.
Somewhat Off topic but still relevant in a lot of ways, has anyone else read this?
http://tarnac9.wordpress.com/texts/the-coming-insurrection/
The Coming Insurrection
Being a mixture of truth and lies I can see this as being very seductive to a sizable chunk of the (ignorant) population.
Here’s the concluding paragraph:
“In the subway, there’s no longer any trace of the screen of embarrassment that normally impedes the gestures of the passengers. Strangers make conversation without making passes. A band of comrades conferring on a street corner. Much larger assemblies on the boulevards, absorbed in discussions. Surprise attacks mounted in city after city, day after day. A new military barracks has been sacked and burned to the ground. The evicted residents of a building have stopped negotiating with the mayor’s office; they settle in. A company manager is inspired to blow away a handful of his colleagues in the middle of a meeting. There’s been a leak of files containing the personal addresses of all the cops, together with those of prison officials, causing an unprecedented wave of sudden relocations. We carry our surplus goods into the old village bar and grocery store, and take what we lack. Some of us stay long enough to discuss the general situation and figure out the hardware we need for the machine shop. The radio keeps the insurgents informed of the retreat of the government forces. A rocket has just breached a wall of the Clairvaux prison. Impossible to say if it has been months or years since the “events” began. And the prime minister seems very alone in his appeals for calm.”
A
I think the reason why we’ve seen more effective drone attacks is simple. We’ve gotten better!
The same learning curve was amply demonstrated by the forces in Iraq. The ability to collect and analyze target information improves. The ability to integrate information with weapons platforms improves. People (and organizations are people) learn. Success breeds further success.
Using drones to kill the enemy…because you (we) can.
It also reinforces the level of paranoia often ascribed to the bad guys, forcing them to expend limited resources to hide, protect, communicate securely etc.
Sort of like a Fleet in Being.
#5 Paul Please, don’t give us the “Grant beat Lee into submission with superior numbers.” At the btter end yes but read about the Vicksburg campaign, he’s right there with Rommel.
Even the progressives, at least the ones actually in office, not the Bill Ayers crowd, understand we can’t let these people run amok. The Predator attacks just create a distance they can live with, why I don’t know but thank God for that at least.
Both the American stand off attack and the putative Israeli targeted attack have unintended consequences. From opposite positions they both fail to drive a wedge between the terrorists and the civilian community.
Perhaps the American method of drone attacks creates perverse incentives that encourages the terrorists to use human shields. If you know that the risk of capture is reduced and that the risk of termination is greatest when alone then the logical thing to do is embed within a civilian community. This scales up to the Pakistanis using their own 170 million population as a cover for their abuse and betrayal of the Americans. We could make loud and public noises that in doing so they are dishonorable and have betrayed the standards of their own honor/shame culture. If the US ostentatiously forged a public alliance with India then the Pakistanis might see the consequences of their actions. If when they claimed that our drone attack had killed civilians at a “wedding party” we had instead of apologizing condemned the Taliban as cowards who hide behind the skirts of women they might change their conduct.
If the tactical intelligence that is gained from capturing and interrogating the enemy is forgone then the risk to otherwise innocent civilians increases. The enemy can themselves be made to bear the burden of that choice. The Japanese kamikaze and banzai tactics along with the mass suicide of civilians in Saipan directly increased the pressure for the strategic fire bombing of cities and the employment of nuclear weapons to compel Japan’s surrender. What would provide “Shock and Awe” to change civilian Pakistani attitudes would not be more drones in the sky but a fly over Quetta by 100 B-52s. The high valleys of the Pashtun may be difficult to further degrade but without the support of urban centers they are of little threat.
The Israelis choose to pursue the risky and expensive method of targeted attacks with long intelligence tails and deep undercover teams because of their own ethical and cultural desires. Their enemies know this and it empowers the persistent displays of defiance by the civilian community. Here again the link between the terrorist and the civilian community is perversely strengthened. If the Israelis in the middle of the night painted big red Xs on the roofs of the houses of family members of terrorists that would get their attention. If they then announced that hundreds of artillery tubes were ready and that any missile launch would mean immediate counter-battery fire or the destruction of those marked houses then the link between the terrorists and the Gazan community might snap.
In the case of a more decisive effort by either the Americans or the Israelis to break the allegiance of the civilian community to the enemy we can expect the full fury of CNN to be unleashed. The proper response to that should be derision.
To be clear I prefer the more hands on Israeli method, with the entailed moral and human costs involved in slow detailed intelligence operations, because of the potential for gaining intelligence and the benefits of long time close interaction with the civilian community. If there is to be a change then it will come from knowledge and the Israeli method offers that hope.
Hold it … if we’re killing all those leaders, where’s that intelligence coming from? Somebody’s talking. No more leaders, no more plans.
“We could make loud and public noises that in doing so they are dishonorable and have betrayed the standards of their own honor/shame culture.”
In all honesty, I don’t think either of those concepts (honor and shame) is a part of Islamic society. I think that’s one of the greatest ongoing problems our culture has with theirs – we cannot concieve of people who don’t have this response built in to them, and they think we’re fools, if they think at all.
Think about it – this is why fighters switch sides constantly in *all* islamic conflicts, not just this one. This is why they run whenever things look bad – this is why hiding behind skirts and mosques is standard practice, as is the killing of civilians, especially women and children. I believe this even has a hand in the extremely widespread sexual abuse of young boys that is endemic to Pashtun culture. (it’s not just rich Arab Sheikhs, it’s all of them)
I’m sorry to say this, but I believe that by all moral standards that we hold to be true they are a cowardly, loathsome people.
And regarding “the coming insurrection” – what that author says may be true for France. Where I am I know that even if everything on the large scale fell apart we would quickly organize local structures that would take over basic security functions; all that is required is a nucleus of people who are capable of making the hard decisions required for group survival. Quickly achieving a monopoly of force in the area to be protected is the one sure way to achieve this now, in the future, and as it always has been in the past. The author of that piece forgets that with the collapse of national control that task actually becomes easier on the local level, not more difficult. Those wishing to do so simply need the resolve to remove all competition quickly and with a lethal resolve.
It was the Israelis that actually invented the Bolt From the Blue approach to negotiations with terrorist leaders. They were locking onto cellphones and shooting Hellfires from choppers for some time before we adopted the Predator approach.
It is amusing to hear a report that a “suspected U.S. missile strike” killed so and so in Afghanistan or Pakistan. One would think they were reporting on flying saucer sightings.
The Left embraces their principles but gingerly. Public schools are fine for everyone as long as their kids can attend private ones. Support for the UAW is Okay but they are gonna drive their Mercedes. The unions who support them will look the other way.
And public trials in NYC for terrorists in NYC and avoiding harsh interrogations at all times will make the legal industry get all warm and fuzzy. But it’s important to just dispense with all of the ACLU mumbo jumbo except for the really big shooe, as Ed used to call it.
Unfortunately, the Predator strike approach is simply a continuation of the Clintonian cruise missile strike in the dead of the night. Like the private schools and Mercedes it avoids dealing with the real problem. It’s a PC doily that dresses up an otherwise beat-up piece of furniture.
And they use this same approach domestically as well. Funny how all those IRS investigations, nuisance lawsuits from the general public, untraceable foreign contributions to political campaigns and mysterious aspirin overdoses all seem to happen on their watch, isn’t it?
Novanglus #14: I guess I am just the bloodthirsty sort, but none of the kids thought of taking the outlaw up on his offer and then shooting Francisco instead of a peasant?
The intelligence tail has been wagging the warfighting dog for the last 20 years. The purpose of war is to kill the enemy not collect intelligence. Sure, it is always nice to get some extra information about the enemy from its senior leadership but I think history shows that when you kill them their plans disappear into oblivion as well.
Success in war is attrition based. Don’t be fooled by the siren song of Blitzkrieg. Blitzkrieg was a tactical method of waging war that obscured the importance of strategy. Despite their success the German’s found themselves fighting a war that was no different strategically then World War I. Just because the front moved hundreds of miles at time didn’t mean that the iron law of attrition was overturned.
Our fetish for intelligence over attrition is in part a reaction to 9-11. It has caused us to forget that the destruction of enemy leads to the frustration of his plans.
Here is timely VDH column in the National Review Online on this subject:
http://article.nationalreview.com/425231/the-tragic-truth-of-war-/victor-davis-hanson
Lots of speculation. About 45 years ago I had a clearance the title of which is still classified. I have a couple of life long friends who had similar clearances. We don’t talk about it.
The depths of deception and disinformation are deep and mysterious. The US, during WWII, devoted a huge effort to deploying search planes over the Atlantic to hunt submarines. It was a ruse to hide the fact that we were able to decode the German naval version of Enigma. Didn’t come out for 50 years.
Speculation is certainly entertaining. I keep a large salt shaker to hand.
The fact that this fellow was offed in the hotel room by such a large team indicates that he likely possessed very valuable information. No need for such a high risk operation just to take one tango out of circulation. Lets all hope they got for what they came. What I find strange and interesting is the detail and volume of the information that is being released by the local authorities….I suspect that this CNN poster boy had significant Iranian ties.
There are three reasons that Drone killings are preferable to a local human assassin. The thing to remember is that there is no way to deny culpability in a drone attack if you are the only one capable of carrying out the attack. That being said the major advantage to the American side is that there is no chance of American prisoners. Imagine the value the prisoner assassin would have to Al Queada. This alone is enough to squash the notion that a capture with interrogation is the preferable approach.
Secondly somehow it is up to the country that the drone flies over to defend itself. The US has drug planes flying in from South America. The U2 flights over Russia and spy satellites sort of have bought a type of international immunity to the governmental posturing that goes on.
Thirdly and less obvious is that the drone attacks serve to hide the assets on the ground that allowed the targeting to occur. Those assets also give valuable intelligence simply by staying alive and reporting on the local fallout. You can’t have good attacks without cellphones and radios.
Now you might ask why Israel does not always use drone attacks. It has to do with deniability. I don’t think it is about morals when you have already decided to kill someone. It is settled at that point. The unfinished business at that point is only the politics. If there were no reason for the need for cover such as one might see with overt Iranian hostilities then there may be a War of the Drones in the offing.
In nature’s balance, all would say
Is predator and prey
In Pakistan by night or day
It’s Predator and pray
In Israel it’s if I may
We have a different way
We show that terror does not pay
And leave him where he lay
Now who can say the better way
To bring the foe to bay
In truth I think they’re both okay
And dare you to say nay
In general, I think the Predator strikes are an excellent tactic. Just want to point out, though, that this is just a continuation of a tactic that was started under Pres. Bush. The significant increase in Predator attacks actually started in Aug 2008. Good on Pres Obama for continuing another Bush policy!
Steve C @ 16: I think the reason why we’ve seen more effective drone attacks is simple. We’ve gotten better!
Yes, of course. And in that way, it is our version of asymmetric warfare and their very worst nightmare, and for that reason, I love it. Remember in the early days of Afghanistan, the Taliban sneering at American bombs and daring us to come down and fight? Remember Indiana Jones, putting aside the bullwhip and pulling out the pistol?
There does seem to be a trend toward smaller ordnance for “death from above”. The guided 70mm rocket, the Small Diameter Bomb, and other stuff.
The insect size robots offer a possible interesting combination. Intelligence gathering and assassination.
Squeamishness can be overcome. The US officer corp for a long time would kill off sniper training in peace time. Then a war would start and the sniper programs would come online again.
Right now snipers and designated marksmen are all the rage.
After 2010 there may be the great reassignment of upper level military lawyers to Greenland and the rediscovery of “field interrogations” …”Hi there, before I ask some questions, wait a bit and let me just sharpen up this spoon some more. It’s hard to keep an edge on it after it grates around in an eyeball socket.”
The London Times says al-Qaeda’s leadership has been decimated by Predator strikes.
This may be satisfying, but it comes at a price. With every drone strike that vaporizes a senior al Qaeda leader, actionable intelligence is vaporized along with him.
Yet these lines beg two questions.
The first: are we certain that the vaporized are all ‘senior al-Qaeda officers’? What’s the chain of communication, and how verifiable is it? How better for campaign leaders to gain public applause by simply announcing that the enemy is falling in company strength to our invincible newer, faster, error-free, more-doctors-recommend-’em supergizmos?
And the second: How cheerful will we be when some enemy acquires similar supergizmos, and enables every Piper Cub in the country to wreak similar havoc on any individual or structure he chooses? Now THAT would be terrorism.
Re Thrasymachus: I didn’t and don’t.
Re Roy Lofquist:
“..devoted a huge effort to deploying search planes over the Atlantic to hunt submarines.”
Knowing isn’t doing. The ocean is big, even an assigned patrol area for that day for a Nazi sub was big. Sub commanders were required to surface sometime during the 24 hours for orders and such, but which hour? Aircraft can only stay on station for so long, each has to have relief. Aircraft break down, get lost, bad weather, crash, bombs hang up over target. You miss. So, before you know it, you have got to have a lot and lot of aircraft. Naturally the code guys think they did it. The aircraft guys think they did it. And, so on.
BTW. Good book. Iron Coffins, written( 1965? ) by a German Sub captain pre release of code breaking becoming common knowledge. His last two patrols he disobeyed his patrol orders. He felt in his bones that as lethal as the battle space had become, there was some unknown detection device or the orders themselves. He didn’t suspect codes.
#14, isn’t that what is known as a false choice? Why would any rational agent believe the perp was really going to kill anyone? Why would any rational agent believe the perp would keep his end of the deal?
I require a better setup, there’s always the classic, if you could kill Hitler/binLaden, …
Casually looking, most of the drone strikes seem to be in territory where snatching would be difficult.
If Mossad got a guy from a hotel in Dubai, say, sedated him and hauled him out in a trash cart, to a car, to an empty space in the country–twenty minutes?–where a chopper could pick them up, it might work.
They only have to break contact once, getting out of the hotel unnoticed. How much time it took after that is limited to how long they can keep the guy subdued without scrambling his neurons beyond repair. A couple of hours on drugs, after that cuffs and duct tape. Or skip the cuffs.
The point is that middle-eastern looking people would be going in and out of that hotel at all hours. That there may be some goings-on not quite quite in ME terms causes others to avoid noticing the unusual. “Fool got drunk. We’re taking him back to his father. Yeah, we’ll return the laundry cart. Just don’t tell housekeeping. Thanks, buddy.”
Getting some buffed-up Middle-America studs mostly a foot taller than the locals in and out of a thousand square miles of territory where everybody shoots at strangers just to keep in practice is a different deal.
OT,
More on Greece
BermanPost
Greece Loses EU Voting Power http://bit.ly/d9zX60
“I require a better setup, there’s always the classic, if you could kill Hitler/binLaden, …”
Is this the classic “you have the only pistol and you find yourself in a sealed room with Hitler, Bin Laden, and Nancy Pelosi, but you only have two bullets. What do you do?”
Why you shoot twice, just to be sure!
Col. (later General) S. L. A. Marshall, US Army historian for WW II, reported in ‘Men Against Fire’ that American artillery soldiers, who could not see the enemy, did not fail to use their weapon during combat but that a large percentage (way more than half) of American riflemen who had an enemy soldier in sight, even an advancing enemy, failed to shoot. The phenomenon takes place in real life, not just in Novanglus’s daughter’s classroom ‘what if?’ exercise.
Does anyone know of similar studies of German, Russian, or Japanese riflemen?
Best wishes,
Jim
Jim:
I can’t put my finger on the source right now but it is my understanding that Marshall’s conclusions have not withstood the test of time. There were many reasons why a soldier might not return fire in combat situation. Things like being pinned by fire where exposing oneself to fire would result in death. In the end a soldier may not return fire in one action for any number of reasons but will become a lion in another. Marshall’s false conclusions were responsible for the decline in marksmanship in the US Army over the years and the adoption of weapons like the M-16 when there were superior fully automatic assualt rifles like the 7.62 FN available.
#36
Hitler has already assumed room temperature, which simplifies the targeting choice greatly.
#14 “I was told that wasn’t an option.” B*****! I understand that’s not an option the teacher wants considered, but that’s an unenforceable constraint.
If Francisco is idiot enough to give me a loaded gun, of course I’m going to shoot him with it. Being a role-player, I’m not going to just assume he’s that much of an idiot. First, check the rifle to see if a round is chambered. If not, hit Francisco in the temple with the tip of the butt, as hard as I can. follow up immediately.
And if the teacher says “what about Francisco’s men”, the response is “my men shoot them where they stand”.
@14 novanglus, @33 Josh
~ “Why would any rational agent believe the perp would keep his end of the deal?” ~
The idea of making students consider a situation where the only option is the lesser of two evils is laudable and probably rare enough these days, but the condition that killing the terrorist is not an option just underscores the artificiality of the situation as presented. It says something about the teacher, doesn’t it? – either a bias that puts the terrorist on the same moral footing as everyone else, (or worse yet, absolves him of any responsibility for the situation) or a failure to think it through. Because, from the sound of it, the one kid who actually made the hard choice got set up, in a way, for the inevitable “How could you decide which innocent person to kill?” and everyone else got to indulge themselves in a specious moral superiority, based on a conscious decision to evade responsibility – all of which would seem to defeat the purpose of the entire exercise.
Jim,
My understanding is that SLA Marshall’s work “Men Against Fire: The Problem of Battle Command” was discredited (somewhat) when he admitted that he didn’t conduct the post combat interviews that he claimed he had. That being said, there is evidence that soldiers are more likely to shoot at a human if they are trained to do so beforehand, hence the change from round “bulls eye” shaped targets to the silhouettes we use now. The rational being that the instinct to not harm other humans has to be overcome through conditioning, hence the danger of the first person shooter video games. See On Killing by Grossman.
Marshall did do some interesting work in another, related, subject though. See “The Soldiers Load and the Mobility of a Nation”
We need to convince ladies like Amy Bishop that their real enemies are from al-Qaeda.
Fake the passport, learn to stalk
The target home and pick his lock,
Snatch the thug and make him talk;
Or float above a foreign flock,
Watching tiny figures walk
The distant ridge, then pan and zoom
From easy chair in darkened room;
And half the world away a boom
Cuts quarry off as we presume
Silence will forestall our doom.
Walt #27, thanks for inspiration.
I see the Brits have got their knickers all in a bunch about this already. Good. Maybe the ‘no-proof-they-were-Mossad’ agents used British passports just to annoy the prigs at the Guardian.
Spindok
Spindok #44: Would have been funniest if the fake passports were made out in the names of Guardian editorial staff.
OK, you’re in a lifeboat with six people, do you cannabilize one?
Or in a spacecraft a week from home, with six people and only air enough for five, or one, …
Or, the Soviets (!) have launched 100 nukes at the US. Should we retaliate while we can, which will bring on nuclear winter and kill all life on Earth? Or, take the 100 nukes, die, and let the world live?
All OT. Assassinations are after all an Arab invention.
And never forget, they love death.
tomw, I have long said that if I were President (to which the Left’s reaction would make their Bush/Palin hatred look like puppy love) I would call the CIA Director into the Oval Office for a private meeting and do a “Henry the Second”. I would be reading the NYT when he arrived.
“I just don’t understand”
“What don’t you understand, Mr. President”
“That nothing every seems to happen to the Iranians given all the mischief that they cause. You’d think with the enemies they’ve created that I would read in New York Times about one of their nuclear scientists disappearing, a power station get blown up, that sort of thing. Would make me smile knowing that they were experiencing some sort of difficulties. (long pause) Anyway, Rudy, glad you are here. I would like an honest assessment of what your department thinks the Chinese are up to in Venezuela”
And things would start going boom in Iran.
josh, simple. Launch everything at Russia. Chances are a lot of theirs aren’t going to work, and a lot of ours are.
OTOH, work is being done on fitting out our UAVs with a .50 cal sniper rifle for more “delicate” work. Once perfected, I predict a sudden downturn in traffic at outdoor cafes in the Middle East…after all, exploding heads during dessert is such bad form (though I’d likely try to put one thru the thorax vice the noggin, but I’m old fashioned). Can you imagine “I’m-a-dinner-jacket” haranguing the crowd from some balcony in Tehran when a sudden large hole appears in his tunic? I can dream, can’t I?
Something I’ve been wondering about is how does the US get its targeting information for the Predator/Hell Fire missile strikes? Those Pakistani mud brick huts all look the same from 10,000 ft. How do they know there’s a bad guy in one hut and an innocent family in the other one?
Since the US seems to be fairly effective at killing bad guys with Predators, one is left to conclude that we’re getting high quality information from inside the Taliban. Knowing they have a traitor in their midst must be driving the Taliban leadership bananas. In trying to root out the traitor, they’re probably killing as many of their own as we are with Predators.
On the subject of the Taliban, here’s an interesting link about their use of human shields:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8519507.stm
That’s the scary thing about religious fanatics. If a person genuinely believes he is God’s warrior then any crime can be justified. We should never negotiate or compromise with the Taliban or al Qaeda. We need to treat them like a deadly virus and go for complete extinction.
Ammo Guy said: “Can you imagine “I’m-a-dinner-jacket” haranguing the crowd from some balcony in Tehran when a sudden large hole appears in his tunic? I can dream, can’t I?”
I’m partial to the idea of using an airborne laser to fry tyrants, refer to:
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2010/ss_missile0115_02_14.asp
I have this vision of Amiadinnerjacket giving an outdoor lecture to the faithful about the 12th Iman, then suddenly there’s a flash of bright light from the heavens and he goes “poof” into a cloud of greasy blue smoke.
“Or in a spacecraft a week from home, with six people and only air enough for five, or one, …”
Is the ship named the Kobayashi Maru?
newsflash, three Tesla Motors execs –on the eve of their IPO which will bring the Tesla into the majors –killed in private plane crash in Palo Alto.
Meanwhile, Napolitano meets with outlawed terrorist group designee Muslim Brotherhood.
And, the Clintons declare war on the Tea Party.
uhhhhhh………
Eggplant @ 49: Something I’ve been wondering about is how does the US get its targeting information for the Predator/Hell Fire missile strikes? Those Pakistani mud brick huts all look the same from 10,000 ft. How do they know there’s a bad guy in one hut and an innocent family in the other one?
Often enough, I suspect they know just where the targets are for weeks or months, and the trick is to track them to a location where it’s “fair” to target them. If the Predator cameras see a car go from their “safe” residence and carries them to someplace halfway isolated, we go boom.
–
wws @ 51: I thought that was more of a ship under attack by overwhelming forces beyond the neutral zone.
19. Lifeofthemind:
I’ve posted here from time to time accounts from people in North and South Waziristan that US preditor attacks were wildly popular with the people of the Waziristans because they do such a precise job of taking out the people who oppress the locals there.
Its only further away from in other parts of Pakistan that popular sentiment is a bit different. but my understanding is that AQ & taliban retaliatory murders are changing opinions even there. ie (they’ve come to know that ISI is playing a double game with them as well…but they are a bit more hot headed in their retribution.)
Hold it … if we’re killing all those leaders, where’s that intelligence coming from? Somebody’s talking. No more leaders, no more plans.
The list of who doesn’t get zapped by a Predator is probably as important as the list of those that do. You can alter the shape of an organization not only by the list of targets, but by its complement. In fact surviving for a very long time may cause others to wonder if you are not in fact supplying intelligence even if you are not. In a paranoid organization, not getting hit may lead you to be suspected — by those getting hit.
wretchard,
In a paranoid organization, not getting hit may lead you to be suspected
One cruel thing that a cop can do is pick a guy up, hold him for a few hours while he boasts that he won’t talk, and then walk him out the front door and slap him on the shoulder. Then pick up his brother the next day. Repeat and rinse as necessary.
“Hey look honey, the Americans delivered a dozen goats and a new big screen TV.”
As always, Wretchard is wise. Y’know there are days when I half-expect to be at some meeting in the building and look up to see our esteemed host sitting at the table with me…would that it was so. I won’t blow your cover, but I will wink.
wws @10:
I worked the Predator / Reaper mission for a number of years, and I’ve got to tell you there are more than a few pilots, targeteers, analysts, and even lawyers out there with PTSD due to that work.
You say it’s like a video game, and in some ways it is, but the nightmares aren’t. All the folks involved in those missions have high IQs and eventually even the hard or unemotional realize that they are killing the enemy in cold blood whenever they show up to work. It’s hard on everyone up and down the kill chain when they know that if they said “no” or I’m not sure, or stayed their, hand that person or group of people would probably still be alive.
It’s particularly bad because high level Taliban and Al Qaeda have for years just shown up at a nominally cooperative compound, sometimes unplanned and unannounced for OPSEC reasons, have supper and sleep over for the night and move on the next day.
The laws of land warfare are on our side. They’re conducting command and control for unlawful combat, and storing military weapons in a residence, so it becomes a valid target. They’re at fault for not having the non-combatants leave first. They do it on purpose so they can wave small bloody clothes for the benefit of villagers and the media, a lesson they learned from Palestinian scum. It would also be an indicator we may notice if the family up and scampered. Keeping the family there also insures they won’t spill the beans to anyone that Moolah Bigwig is camped out at their place tonight…
In a way it’s emotionally harder than being in combat. I’ve been attacked before, and for me at least, I had no moral reservations about using my weapon when the choice appeared to be them or me.
In a Hellfire strike you usually have minutes and sometimes hours to consider what you’re about to do and how you know things are probably going to turn out. The only thing I can compare it to is the experience of snipers. The difference is that their art requires supreme physical conditioning and practice, practice, practice. I’ve never sniped, and I don’t want to diminish the difficulty of the mission snipers have by comparison but I don’t know what else I can compare it to, perhaps helicopter door gunners in Vietnam had similar experiences, but even for the door gunners and snipers there is that kick from adrenaline, knowing that your target is dangerous, and will kill you if they can. It can be an additional challenge to deal with, but at the moment of truth the adrenaline rush sure does focus the mind and for most of the folks I know, submerge deep thought, regretts and anxiety until later.
In UAV operations you’re waging cold blooded slaughter on the enemy and watching the live feed to verify the effect, number of kills, and squirters who get away, for possible follow up shots.
I don’t claim to know how society feels about our UAV war, I’m so close to it that I remember the trees instead of the forest.
I just thought you should know it isn’t really like a video game, and although we have hard morals and emotions, the folks waging the war are not bankrupt in those departments.
@40 Mary: and everyone else got to indulge themselves in a specious moral superiority
That’s actually the real purpose of high school ethics classes, with the teacher being the most morally superior being of all. It’s all about “self-esteem.”
I’d say though that the most shocking part of the exercise was they acknowledged the existence of a Central American bandit!
One of the things a person who operates in the underground must face is the prospect of uncovering an informer. You can’t take him prisoner. It would be suicide to talk to him and that creates a further problem. How can you be sure he really is an informer? At best what happens is that a covert inquiry is launched. If there is a lot of doubt, he is watched.
But suppose one day a convincing circumstance emerges and everyone is agreed: X is an informer. The next problem is, who will bell the cat? It is moral cowardice for the leader to say to a subordinate, “here, you do it.” So you take out your .38 snubby and go find the informer. If you can do it all, it’s only because he trusts you. And that’s the worst of it. So you go out somewhere. And you notice everything. His cheap shoes, his corny jokes. His bad breath. And you feel the .38 in your pocket and know that whatever comes next, no justification, no paradise on earth, no law will ever completely justify ending that existence. And so you walk along the corridor of the damned, the both of you treading the path to a place of execution where two things will die in the same gunshot, but in different ways.
If God is good to you and a miracle happens He will take the cup away and either you will discover before the fatal moment he is innocent or … through no fault of your own, the target will get wise and skip. You will never put away a weapon with so much relief as at that moment. Winston Churchill once said there is nothing so exhilarating as being shot at and missed. He was wrong. There’s nothing so wonderful as having to go out and kill somebody and find that you don’t have to.
And then you’ll find yourself perhaps involuntarily, on your knees in a darkened church thanking God that you didn’t have to do it, knowing strangely enough, that you would have and that you would be there as well if you hadn’t and the informer had gone on to wipe out your cell; a sinner either way with no escape. But had you done it, you would have been asking God for forgiveness in the classic Act of Contrition which acknowledges that you have lost heaven and deserve the pains of hell. Either to act or not act in war is damnation. Only when a door opens mysteriously can you be saved and that’s when you discover grace.
I’ve often related the story of how, after Marcos fell, the civilians crowded around one veteran and asked him to tell the stories of glory. He recounted the night he cut an informer’s throat in front of his children in some mountain town with all the informer’s children crying “daddy, daddy!” That’s when they realized I think, that glory in that sense is a sham. The only real glory is to have lived through absurdity and to have done alright by the standards of your conscience.
If there is any way out of guilt and damnation it is through grace. But I think that for those who send others to do their dirty work and appear on the public stage in the garb of ritual, legalistic innocence, God will be sterner. The man made pieces of paper buy you nothing, not in the long haul. You follow as you can blinded by hardship and tears along the path that promises not understanding, but forgiveness. Maybe what we would most like to hear at the moment of our deaths is a voice saying, “my son, I understand.”
tdiinva @ 38 and Andrew @ 41
Thanks for the new, and disappointing, information about Marshall’s historical work. And thanks for the references, Andrew.
Jim
AR @ 57 – I was a bit worried when I wrote that post that it could be taken that way, and that wasn’t my intent. I was thinking more of the civilians in Washington and elsewhere who cause things to be put in motion and then allow themselves the luxury of never having to know that there is someone like you or those doing the job today who actually carry the moral burden of the actions, for those like Obama certainly don’t.
And I fear that precisely because those with the ultimate responsibility for directing the actions take no personal responsibility for them, they are far more free to act thoughtlessly not only towards those who may be their targets, but towards those who serve this country faithfully as well.
I believe that to people like Rahm Emmanuel and David Axelrod, the kill/no kill decision will be made solely on the basis of their belief as to which way the days popularity chart may jiggle. And this applies to their biggest client as well.
8. JFSanders031
Yep, I have often thought ‘dead terroists’ lips are sealed’.
Uncomplicate a lot of things if you have loose ends in your background to tidy up.
#35 LOTM
Videos on Youtube are asking people to react against the Wall street “gang”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0zNf6asRhM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SSbKYBjuGE
Israel uses targeted assassinations because they don’t have the infrastructure to mount drone attacks. Not enough drones, support airfields in friendly countries, and so on. We use them because of politics.
But WHY are the politics the way they are? Wretchard avoids that question. Israel has its share of critics of the assassination attempts. And who are they? Mostly suburban, single or tragically hip married women, and feminized men, who don’t get rocketed. You will find few critics of the targeted assassinations in places like Hebron or Ashkelon. But many in hip/cool Tel Aviv.
Similarly, in the US, Americans in places like suburban Dallas, or Salt Lake City, you will find few criticisms of interrogation, assassinations, Marine scout/snipers, and so on. But you will find them in places like Park Slope Brooklyn, or West LA, or the Upper East Side.
Why is this?
IMHO, when there is no assumed threat to survival, and indeed, there is perceived no possible threat to survival, other needs come into play. Particularly moral status connected to social status.
Women do not lack religion. The religion has merely changed from Christianity to post-Christian, SWPL status-driven consumption and moralizing. Women do not feel the threat of death or disaster, given the apparent invincible nature of Western society. Thus, political disaster if we interrogate people like KSM with waterboarding, or don’t mirandize the Eunuch bomber.
What seems to be changing is women’s perceptions of safety and danger. The moralizing, post-Christian impulse remains. Also, as noted, among feminized men immersed in female-driven portions of society (you will find few construction workers worrying about the due process given KSM, many hipsters tragically concerned). Economic recession, and the ability of Scott Brown in Massachusetts to score points on the question of Mirandizing the Eunuch bomber, even among women, seems to suggest this moralizing and putting moral restraints on fighting the enemy is eroding.
It is strongest IMHO in the folks who create and watch “the View” and don’t feel a general sense of threat. Those who do, increasingly want a decisive “win” and to hell with moral restraints. People expect airliners not to drop onto their cities by bombings from Jihadis, and will support all measures, including profiling, restricting Muslims from flying, and interrogation by some particularly nasty methods (likely, drugs) to get whatever information is needed to stop it.
And failing that, killing great masses of Muslims on the theory advanced by Curtis LeMay that “kill enough of them and they stop fighting.”
Rather than accelerate “peace” through economic recession, rather economic collapse and hardship IMHO erodes the critical support for moralism and restraint on fighting the enemy: women’s sense of safety leading to following of other needs in the Maslow hierarchy.
This is likely to accelerate, as women face huge layoffs (they have largely been immune as men have made up 80% of the job losses) from state and local governments running out of Obama stimulus money to plug budget holes and keep government employment (read: women) afloat.
Josh @52: Actually that’s a test question that can be tweaked so that you can come out ahead even when you shouldn’t. If your initials are JTK, that is.
MC,
Those vids are from Obama’s propaganda wing. Remember that the biggest offenders are Goldman Sachs and others tied to the White House. The populist campaign aims to give these same crooks and Acorn affiliated politicians more power over their competitors.
W’s faith based revulsion to executing someone is certainly what we would all hope humanity would strive for. Unfortunately it is not….not by a long shot.
In other comments, A. Rex states:
“and eventually even the hard or unemotional realize that they are killing the enemy in cold blood”
If a man is my enemy and we are in an action, be it a revolution, police action, “pacification program”, or an actual declared war my enemy will kill me if I don’t kill him first, and the first rule in war is Don’t get killed Cold blood? Definitely NOT, for that is the enemy you must kill.
In my experience on three continents of engaging the enemy I never once had any difficulty in killing. I believe a greater moral case could be made for killing many of the men who have met that fate. Who would argue that assassinating Mao, Stalin, Hitler, Pol Pot and the other rogues of history’s gallery of rogues wouldn’t have helped the world?
Killing does change you, some it renders a trauma they never fully recover from for it isn’t an easy thing to wipe the blood, bone, and flesh of your just killed comrade from your fatigues and just forget it. Others are pushed toward greater faith.
But I can flat out tell you that if you have a known enemy, defined by the engagement your country may be in or the loony who goes ballistic at the mall you damn well better take him out before he does the same to you.
As I have said many times, peace is just the interstitial space between mankind’s wars and killing. Always embrace that peace for it is ephemeral.
God has created a koan for us to consider. God says thou shalt not kill, yet places us in a world where every living organism must compete for survival. For many but the most fortunate few, survival requires dealing in death.
So, what does God want? For His children to live, compete and survive or to accept death willingly?
Your answer will be enlightening.
68/programmer: God said “Thou shall not murder” which got lost in translation along the way to kill.
Habu:
“No one ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his.”
General George S. Patton
Are there really moral differences between trench warfare, precision strikes, and carpet bombing? One can make general arguments, or specific.
There has hardly ever been a clearer case – if the enemy does not wish to be struck, they should stand down. But they do not stand down, they brag of their mission, and brag of how they love death.
In the west, we may take this to be the courage of the damned, who have no choice and are being brave about it. Or, we may take them on their word, which is they do this because they are on a mission from Allah and have no wish to stand down and be left alone.
It’s a head-shaker for us of the west, but I believe the facts are entirely clear, and we can deal with it efficiently, or not.
Back on topic, once assigned an assassination, is it really worse to do it via Hellfire missile, than hand to hand in a hotel room?
LOTM
I had the impression that Golman Sachs & Cies were the kind of crook financers that should be targeted. Yes, I noticed that these videos are from the dems side
I have been there when bad guys have hidden behind the innocent and shot at us because they know we could not shoot back. They are worse than animals. I hate those people more than you can imagine; I hate them so much that if you could look inside and see it you would run away screaming and never come near me again.
Bring them to me and I will put a bullet thru their heads all the live long day and then go home and sleep the sleep of the just.
71. tdiinva
….right. And they have been around since the creation or if you believe evolution of mankind.
I would also say that any discussion about the existence of God is way beyond the scope of this or any blog.
I can say with certitude that islam and Christianity aren’t on the same philosophical page.
Eggplant #49: “Something I’ve been wondering about is how does the US get its targeting information for the Predator/Hell Fire missile strikes?”
I think the answer is multiple sources. One thing that came out of the war in Iraq is that we have moved into a whole new level when it comes to things like tactical signals intelligence and analyzing enemy networks. Add in data from other sources, including, probably most importantly of all the data from the UAVs themselves. They are the ultimate Red Light Camera when it comes to detecting offenders.
While I still think the Predator approach represents a wimpy outlook in dealing with the problem, at least it has provided an alternative to some of the idiotic tactics that were going on before. Heard of Marcus Littrel, the author of “Sole Survivor” and the only member of a SEAL team that came back alive? His team was inserted to try to keep track of an important suspect in an Afghan village. Inserted in an area with minimal cover and in which strangers stick out like the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders at a Catholic Mass. What were those guys supposed to do, claim to be the Fuller Brush Man or the Avon Lady? Dumbest thing I have ever heard of, and I was in the Pentagon for over 4.5 years, so that is saying quite a lot. Presumably, the UAVs have eliminated that kind of nonsense.
It will be very interesting to see how the various tactical intelligence gathering and network analysis techniques we have developed affect the future of warfare – and it will in the end probably be far more important than the use of UAVs.
wretchard, when you get rested from the novel, with your visuals you oughtta write a screenplay –your web work –and fans –would get it a reading by the pencil guys. do it for getting truth onto the screen –don’t even think about the dough. that way it’ll be a surprise –a gift –not a commercial trade. and don’t forget my finder’s fee, 1.5%, pls. (just kidding)
but seriously, that walk with the good friend, looking for sign for such a decision, even just ‘acted’ on a screen that’d be as hairy as Al Pacino looking for the pistol in the toilet stall and then having to go eliminate the Turk and the police chief in that spaghetti restaurant in ‘The Godfather’.
RWE said: “They (Predator UAVs) are the ultimate Red Light Camera when it comes to detecting offenders.”
I understand this but again take a look at your typical Taliban or al Qaeda terrorist, i.e. some unwashed dude with a bushy black beard, wearing baggy pants with a towel wrapped around his head. They all look alike! How do you tell the difference at 10,000 feet? The Predator program appears to be successful so somehow they’re tracking the bad guys. Again, the only way I can see this working is we have people on the inside planting radio beacons on bad guys and/or people on the ground lighting up target sites with laser designators.
wretchard@59
“And so you walk along the corridor of the damned, the both of you treading the path to a place of execution where two things will die in the same gunshot, but in different ways.”
Great post. It caused me to think.
A couple of industry briefs -
CIA deaths prompt surge in U.S. drone strikes
The New York Times (22/1/10) Shane, Scott and Schmitt, Eric
Ever since the suicide bombing and of seven Americans in Afghanistan on 30. Dec., the CIA has ramped up its used of missile-armed unmanned systems in attacks against Pakistani militants. Since the bombing, the CIA group located in Khost, Afghanistan, has carried out 11 attacks, which have resulted in the deaths of approximately 90 suspected militants. “For the CIA, there is certainly an element of wanting to show that they can hit back,” says Bill Roggio, editor of The Long War Journal, an online publication that tracks CIA drone attacks.
U.S. offers Pakistan drones to urge cooperation
The New York Times (21/1/10) Bumiller, Elisabeth
The United States is set to supply Pakistan with 12 unarmed Shadow unmanned aerial vehicles in an upcoming deal to encourage the country to cooperate with attacks on Islamic militants around Pakistan’s Afghanistan border. However, a chief spokesman of the Pakistani Army says that the army is holding off on any border assaults for the next six to 12 months.
Eggplant #77:
I don’t think it is necessarily that sophisticated. If you know that bad guys are coming from a general area, either from tracking them or from radio intercepts or from other Intel. And you note the traffic and see that more people tend to come and go from a given hut, and they pass through the enemy checkpoints with ease and there is a bunch of them in the hut at a particular time, then you simply take out the hut.
We hear of a lot more “suspected U.S. missile strikes” than we hear of “We got Mr. Big.” So maybe you did not get Adm Yammamoto but maybe you got some of his staff or maybe just a half dozen IJN sailors visiting a comfort house.
A friend of mine who knows a lot of very high level people told me a very interesting story once about a US assassination attempt against Gen Erwin Rommel in WWII. The person who told him about it was very high level and had no special reason to lie about it. It has never come out in the open, and does not fit the official version of what happened but a book that came out in the 90’s featured interviews with Rommel’s family that does lend credence to it over the official history. It’s a hell of a story if it ever does come out.
By the way, a very good novel that may not really be a novel that y’all should read is “The Wooden Wolf.” Few novels indeed have a forward written by one of the characters.
OT,
From the satanic to the merely bizarre. Time Warner/Earthlink billing record hell. TW didn’t tell Earthlink I’m a customer, E’link thinks I owe for webmail. This happened before. I tried Earthlink support chat and the “Supervisor” said I had no internet service. I pointed out that I was chatting with him on the internet. Now I am on voice hold. Why didn’t stuff like this happen to Amy Bishop?
To be blogged under the title “Information Retrieval.”
Wretchard: Why doesn’t America use skilled humans like the supposed Israeli hit team? For two reasons: somehow, for causes social scientists have yet to explain, using people to kill people creates a public revulsion but blowing them up from a robot circling tens of thousands of feet above is politically acceptable….
Yes, as long as the hit feels more like a “Gears of War” video game, people will be less repulsed by it. Imagine what the psychology will be like when this present teenaged video-generation takes the reigns of war?
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1150386.html
http://tinyurl.com/ybow9uq Gordon Thomas who made a book about the “Mossad ” (that I have read) thinks that the Dubai event is signed, the Brit paper is more than sure of it too
and the papers just after the assassination said that the Israeli Government chief made “no comment”, I bet then that that was a Mossad act, the Haaretz paper is sure of it too
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/02/201021712546706420.html
Al Jazeera says
Avigdor Lieberman, the Israeli foreign minister, told Army Radio on Wednesday: “There is no reason to think that it was the Israeli Mossad, and not some other intelligence service or country up to some mischief.
However, he also said that Israel has a “policy of ambiguity” on intelligence matters.
Theodore Karasik, director of research at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai, told Al Jazeera the operation appeared “too sloppy” to have been carried out by Mossad.
“They were clearly unprofessional … in the sense that they were able to go out and come to Dubai knowing full well of the biometric system that’s in place here and the passport control.”
well, this is becoming a scenario for ‘Like an espionage movie’
So many pictures of the foreigners, but no pictures, other than the arrival scenes, of Mach-boo. How come? It seemed to me there were cameras all over. But the general picture? Where are their arabs, arriving? Families, anyone? Kids in strollers?
Is it possible there are more ‘agents’ than tourists? Where did Mach-boo send FIVE HOURS? And, how did the hit team do this in ten minutes, AND also got to interrogate him?
Why didn’t the russians make the list, here? Maybe, you can buy passport ID the same way you buy stolen credit cards?
What if a dead Mach-boo was returned to his room, after the missing 5 hours, from the service elevator. In a food trolley?
Lifeofthemind #81:
Know what ya mean, bud. At work last year the three phone companies that have to hold hands in order for our Left Coast HQ contract to provide us with phone service could not be persuaded to talk to one another. So our phones went down due to a hardware problem and they all said to us “Talk to him, not me.” Finally got it fixed by e-mailing the local paper’s consumer affairs editor, believe it or not. The phone companies would pay attention to him – and could not understand why we were having problems.
Then this year we started getting two bills from the two companies that are supposedly partners. Both wanted to us to pay them, not the other guy. So when we did not pay both of them they shut off our phone service. That was resolved and it was turned back on – except that we are still getting two bills.
I want us to get one of those $19.95/year Internet phone services just to act as a backup.
Where did Mach-boo send FIVE HOURS? And, how did the hit team do this in ten minutes, AND also got to interrogate him?
That’s why the Life is so fascinating. Even the participants find that there are more questions than answers. But presentation of the UAE police is interesting because it suggests what they think, or at least, what they think they mean to suggest. They often mention that Mabhou’s “security was penetrated” and that Mabhou “had no bodyguards”. Translation: somebody knew he was coming and Mabhou was there on his own. So the local gumshoes are probably trying to answer the following questions:
a) who did Mabhou come to meet?
b) who was Mabhou working for?
So along those lines, “AFP – Dubai police questioned two Palestinians on Tuesday in connection with the murder of a top Hamas militant, after naming an 11-member hit team travelling on what are increasingly looking like fake European passports”. I think the Dubai police might be going on the theory that the Hamas may not like the the answers to either of those two questions.
Why such a large team (and there may have been more)? Because they were going up against a relatively good countersurveillance package and they might have been expecting company. So who is the third party offstage? And who is the fourth party who came in and rained on their parade? There’s a bunch of theories that will fit the situation. Here are some of the obvious ones.
Somebody wanted to throw a monkey wrench into a deal Mabhou was working on. Or maybe somebody wanted to know what the deal was about. Or maybe somebody wanted somebody else to know they knew about the deal. How did they interrogate him so quickly? Could be whoever did him knew most of it and were only looking to confirm. Perhaps Mabhou had USB stick or something on his person and the electric shock devices were simply devices to get him cough it up. After checking out the contents, they checked him out of this world.
But that’s all speculation. We’ll only get half answers. It is after all, the world of shadow and deceit; which is in many ways the original Hotel California. You can check in any time you like, but often you can never leave.
A few thoughts to share,
How much Hamas, Palestinian, Hezbollah and Syrian abuse of British, Irish and French passports are likely to be uncovered chasing these few down?
The “Hand of Allah” as the missile strikes were referred to in Sadr City, is ultimately launched by the evil doers themselves. Based on their deeds, there is not any decision which could or should change the outcome. They will die for the betterment of and survival of those who are cursed by their acts.
If honor and loyalty are not character traits of terrorists, what are the supposed traits of those who would give up intel against them. There are many brave and courageous men and women helping us to eliminate the scum residing in their midsts. Almost like a tea party. But for tribal folks it is more of a family affair.
Mabhou could also have been lured there by the offer of a private deal that meant he was betraying his major interests anyway.
The deal itself could have been legit, or fake.
Or maybe he was there for the All-Gulf Wet Burqa Finals.
For the conspiracy minded – here’s a thought:
The Iranians set up M.
Mossad gets Blame, this poisons the likelihood of UAE, Saudi to cooperate with Israel on taking out the nukes.
See http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2010/02/15/iran-are-the-saudis-in-secret-talks-with-israel/
wretchard:
If you can send robot insects after your enemies, you can use such robots to listen to the enemy’s conversations. Moreover, such insect robots can be “homing devices” that make the lives of the real robot assassins much easier.
They aren’t called “bugs” for nothing…
I can’t say that it is the case–I don’t know. But maybe we don’t need the information the dead Al-Quadi have because we already have it and there is nothing to be gained by continuing their existence.
It was many years ago, but at that time there was a technology to “bug” a room/house at a distance. Essentially, when you talk it creates vibrations, and its picked up and will resonate through things like glass windows. A laser beam operating on a frequency that was not within the human range of vision could be trained upon a glass window, and the fluctuations could be translated back into sound.
And that was years ago. Lord knows what we have now. Just imagine a small cloud of “magic dust” being planted in an area. The dust is very resonate to sound and is very reflective to certain wavelengths of “light” that can shined down from a satellite in orbit.
You have a tactical microphone. You would need to be able to localize the data to pick out conversations from the din but don’t tell me that this is something beyond the capabilities of the NSA. He who underestimates the NSA is a fool.
Its just a thought…
Reference the second of the two lead-in videos, the flying flapper probably isn’t very practical, but artificial insects, the literal “fly on the wall” are certainly possible. There are a lot of prototypes of small UAV’s that can operate inside buildings. These could easily work as the target acquisition half of a two part UAV system. With more precise targeting information, the armed half of the system can be smaller and have a shorter loiter time than a single vehicle system.
This would be analogous to using a laser designator and an laser guided munition homing on it. Lighter munitions mean you can deploy more of them for the same lift or cubage. Reach out and touch someone…
wretchard:
Why didn’t you use enemy informants to your own advantage? Why not arrange for them to get information you want your enemy to know? You know, disinformation.
In other words, you can trick your enemy into punishing his own informant.
It is hard to believ that the Israelis would send 11 men to do a job that should be done by one or two. It seems a bit amatureish.
#46 Assassinations are after all an Arab invention.
Persian,Islamic to be sure but Shia.
Hamas has not given details of how he was killed, but Mr Mabhouh’s family said medical teams that examined him determined that he had died in his hotel room after receiving a massive electric shock to the head. They also found evidence that he had been strangled.
Blood samples sent to a French laboratory confirmed he was killed by electric shock, after which the body was sent to Syria, they said
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8486531.stm
The police chief, Dhahi Khalfan Tamim, said the mercenary team made use of “advanced technologies” during the operation, adding that al-Mabhouh was under surveillance from the moment he landed in Dubai on January 19th
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3849602,00.html
#95
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination
Says Levant. I dunno.
I wondered a bit at the 11 also, but the explanation seems to be they might have needed more to break the target’s security.
(and if they saw 11, it might have been 33)
Wretchard @ 59
Thank you–very much.
Jim
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3850478,00.html
the operation was well orchestrated, knowing that there are camera everywhere in Dubai.
a) who did Mabhou come to meet?
an arms trafficant, Dubai place offers facilities for that
b) who was Mabhou working for?
still for Hamas
Fat Man #95
Not that I’m an assassination expert, but I could see how they might need that many operators.
If the same two or three guys are always following the target around eventually the target might figure it out. If you have multiple operators you can switch them out more so he does get wise to being followed.
Also consider the possibility of an extended op that requires 24/7 surveillance. You’d need to work in shifts to stay sharp. That would require more manpower.
Lot of other good reasons for large team:
Tailing in vehicles requires multiple operators.
Perhaps they initially had multiple targets.
What if it became necessary to create a distraction?
What if some operators get compromised, captured, or killed?
All in all, I say job well done. Hat tip to Mossad or whoever it was. We should be doing this; get close, make it personal. Let them live in fear of a inglorious death.
Fat Man #95
Not that I’m an assassination expert, but I could see how they might need that many operators.
If the same two or three guys are always following the target around eventually the target might figure it out. If you have multiple operators you can switch them out more so he does get wise to being followed.
Also consider the possibility of an extended op that requires 24/7 surveillance. You’d need to work in shifts to stay sharp. That would require more manpower.
Lot of other good reasons for large team:
Tailing in vehicles requires multiple operators.
Perhaps they initially had multiple targets.
What if it became necessary to create a distraction?
What if some operators get compromised, captured, or killed?
All in all, I say job well done. Hat tip to Mossad or whoever it was. We should be doing this; get close, make it personal. Let them live in fear of an inglorious death.
Why didn’t you use enemy informants to your own advantage? Why not arrange for them to get information you want your enemy to know? You know, disinformation.
The main problem with informants is that you have to cut them off from the cell and other cells. There are two basic ways to do this. One is to simultaneously move all the posts and all the safe houses out from under him. If the informant knows real names, then you have a further problem, and possibly an insoluble one. That brings us to method number 2.
This was the nuclear option. The standard ethical test was that you didn’t raise a hand unless someone had incurred a “blood debt”. This meant the subject’s actions had caused an actual death. If you lost somebody (say he was snatched, interogated and killed) then the “blood debt” line had been crossed. Now I have to say that all kinds of spurious cases came up all the time. An underground is a paranoid place. So when somebody wound up in the police torture chambers or dumped on the street, then the question was did somebody run up a score?
Evening things up was pretty drastic. So in practice you’d move the posts and safe houses and in general the network away from any suspected informer. Nobody went much for “disnformation” campaigns. Most of the guys were in their teens and early 20s; raw and unsophisticated people.
Generally, the closer to the higher ups you came, the closer you came to armed groups, the more often the “blood debt” problem cropped up.
The biggest mass murder in the underground years were perpetrated by the Communist Party brass in operation “Missing Link” and “Operation Garlic”. They’re still digging up the bodies. By and by the Bolshies expanded the definition of a “blood debt” to include such crimes as “sexual opportunism”, which meant you’d messed around with the ladies, which was kind of funny, since the Party bigs were fond of the ladies too. And here is where the old adage takes place. What’s good for the goose ain’t good for the gander.
The Dubai police investigation revealed that the cell members did not contact each other directly during their stay in the country, and didn’t do so before their arrival and after leaving as well. However, they spoke to each other by dialing to a communications center in Austria, which was referred to as “the assassins’ headquarters” by the Dubai police.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3850803,00.html
One dead bad guy at the cost of 11 burned agents. Sustainable?
Three Blind Mice Rhyme
Nursery Rhyme & History
Three blind mice, three blind mice,
See how they run, see how they run,
They all ran after the farmer’s wife,
Who cut off their tails with a carving knife,
Did you ever see such a thing in your life,
As three blind mice?
54. wretchard:
Hold it … if we’re killing all those leaders, where’s that intelligence coming from? Somebody’s talking. No more leaders, no more plans.
The list of who doesn’t get zapped by a Predator is probably as important as the list of those that do. You can alter the shape of an organization not only by the list of targets, but by its complement. In fact surviving for a very long time may cause others to wonder if you are not in fact supplying intelligence even if you are not. In a paranoid organization, not getting hit may lead you to be suspected — by those getting hit
…………
Now consider what his colleagues must think of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in the light of official reports that he might play the role of middleman in a stalemated war.
Captured Taliban leader could shape stalemated war
One should not assume that the Mahmoud al-Mabhou was the most important target of this assassination. He probably wasn’t. I think the real target was the Emir of Dubai.
The assassination sent a message not only to the Dubai, but also to all of the Gulf emirates. This assassination sent a special message to anybody who is hiding out in Gulf countries. It tells them, “We can get to you.”
Would getting eleven agents burned be worth that message? That depends upon one’s strategy.
If the actual intent is to kill one bird, the price is high. If the actual intent is to shake a flock of birds out of a tree, the price is low. This high profile killing destroys Dubai’s image as a safe haven. After this attack, no political exile will be nearly so trusting of Dubai again.
I’m sure that Mohammed bin Rashid al-Makhtoum, Emir of Dubai, is furious at this breach of sanctuary. This killing was a direct attack upon the Emir’s honor as a host, so whoever ordered the death of Mahmoud al-Mabhou must have been quite unhappy with Dubai’s political leadership. Mohammed bin Rashid al-Makhtoum has many enemies.
Major Strasser has been shot. Round up the usual suspects.
#18 Thrasymachus – “Please, don’t give us the “Grant beat Lee into submission with superior numbers.” At the btter end yes but read about the Vicksburg campaign, he’s right there with Rommel.”
**
Rommel? Come on. Grant recieved so many reinforcements at Vickburg that his 77,000 well-armed and well-fed troops surrounded 18,000 defenders. He had the use of his gunboats on the river to pound them into submission, his assaults in May 1863 failed, and Grant wound up in siege mode for 40 days. Competant yes, but he couldn’t have done it without his superior numbers and supply.
federal deficit for first four months of the fiscal year came in this afternoon @ 8.8% higher than same period last fiscal year –which finished with a 1.42 trillion deficit.
8.8% wouldn’t be quite so horrid if GDP growth was a couple points higher. The two points is critical for a variety of reasons both technical, fundamental, amd ‘market risk’ psychological. To support an 8.8% deficit growth, we’d need Chinese GDP growth –that is, 10.8%. The knot is, our cash burn rate is producing not growth but consumption. That Stimulus balance –the unspent 2/3 of the $787 (now +$75bbl addition) billion, really needs to go back to the Treasury –seriously.
Stim bill is the iceberg (Obama’s ‘we MUST hurry’ speech –right before he took four days off without signing it –was the night darkness that HID the iceberg) and we’re the Titanic. The scraping collision is in progress tho only 1/3 of the coming rip in the hull is ripped. If we hit Right Full Rudder, All Ahead Full, tomorrow morning —mayyyybeeee…we don’t rip open that last two or three watertight compartments and dump the last of our bouyancy –water’s COLD out there –
Wretchard said: “starling, thanks. I’ll correct the mistake asap. That’s embarassing. Glad you pointed it out.”
NRO has a 27 minute video, mostly of surveillance/CCTV of the hit team arriving, following the victim, and departing.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmFlZjc5OWUzZDE5NmY1ZWE5NTQzZTQ4ZWYxNTRjYjQ=
Watching it I noticed a mistake of my own, i.e. that the assassination took place at the Al Bustan Rotana, the one near the airport, not the al Murooj Rotana on Sheikh Zayed road, as I had assumed.
Whiskey @ 64 said: “Israel uses targeted assassinations because they don’t have the infrastructure to mount drone attacks. Not enough drones, support airfields in friendly countries, and so on. We use them because of politics.”
Perhaps one reason we use drone attacks is this: there’s only video of the target getting struck and not of the person(s) manning the controls. The video referenced above is filled with images of the hit team at work. The NRO article quotes an Israeli columnist and former aide to Rabin as saying that the hit team members can’t “even go to the grocery store” now. That is to say, their faces are being seen on TV and the internet the world over. The people northern Virginia controlling drones and dropping the payloads still enjoy the privilege of picking up a gallon of milk on their way home.
If I understand Geithner’s approach, That unspent amount can’t be absorbed back because it is unused cash sitting as a confidence builder in case other banks decide they actually might want to make a loan. Geithner wants to institute a use fee, or tax on the banks to either stimulate lending or soak up excess. But of course no one in their right mind wants to make a loan right now, because credit is so tight no one is making money, so the money needed to make money is sitting as a hedge against trying to make money and potentially losing everyone’s shirt. Risk aversion is equating market paralysis with responsible or prudent use of funds. Nobody wins everybody loses.
That is to say, their faces are being seen on TV and the internet the world over.
I suspect that is not exactly the case. The passport photos look a tad “generic” to me. Enough closeness to the holders’ visages to pass through the customs, but not exactly them. Picture of Gail, as some commented in different fora, may look like a possible male disguised as female. Yet “Gail” in the video looks quite femalish, though her face, which seems to be wider than on the passport photo, is obscured by shades.
I think that the participants are quite safe to do their grocery shopping.
If there is any way out of guilt and damnation it is through grace. But I think that for those who send others to do their dirty work and appear on the public stage in the garb of ritual, legalistic innocence, God will be sterner. The man made pieces of paper buy you nothing, not in the long haul. You follow as you can blinded by hardship and tears along the path that promises not understanding, but forgiveness. Maybe what we would most like to hear at the moment of our deaths is a voice saying, “my son, I understand”
That was beautiful.
I watched the CCTV videos on YouTube. I didn’t see any crime comitted, all I saw was a bunch of people walking around. As for killing people, I’ve never done it. I have worked in an emergency room and had a guy die under me while doing chest compressions. He was young, about 40. He had been conversing only moments before while unbeknownst to the trauma team, there was a small tear in his aorta I found out later. That freaked me out a little. Seeing an aborted fetus stuck in a broom
closet, that freaked me out a little too. A kid newly diagnosed with leukemia sitting alone in a dark hospital room is one of the most depressing things I’ve ever seen. Blowing away commies/statists/terrorists/fascist/liberals? That’d probably cheer me up! Who knows, maybe I could land a job as an assassin too!!!!! Back to the CCTV footage. These people had to know the hotel was wired that way. It’s all conjecture pointing out who knew what and who did what.
77. Eggplant
“Again, the only way I can see this working is we have people on the inside planting radio beacons on bad guys and/or people on the ground lighting up target sites with laser designators.”
Google “Human Body Radar Signature” from the Army Research Laboratory. ARL-TR-4403.
Congrats to Israel on such a fine job…
The message is clear, the days of PC are over… If your a terrorist, jew killing piece of crap? you will die and staying at 5 star hotels ANYWHERE will not save you…
I suggest a nice cave somewhere….
President Obama has ordered more drone hits since taking office than President Bush did in three years.
Finally doing something to justify that Nobel Peace Prize….
…assassination by drone has made it the wonder-drug of counterterrorism…. Dead men tell no tales. But at least they give you no political grief and for many that’s the thing: perhaps the only thing.
Fair’s fair. We have Andrew Sullivan (et al.)to thank for this one. (I just knew Andrew’d come through in spite of everything…!)
RWE #80 – it wasn’t just us going after the Desert Fox. In Nov 41, the Brits sent a commando team to North Africa to accomplish the same under the code name Operation Flipper. Alas, it didn’t work out since Rommel was not there, but LTC Geoffrey Charles Tasker Keyes was awarded the VC for his efforts to that end…even though it cost him his life. Fascinating story…like so many from WWII that remain little known and often untold.
#108 Louie – I think the strategy being referred to was what Grant did to set up the siege. When all senior military officials thought it was impossible, he ran his transport ships underneath the guns of Vicksburg on a dark night and then effected a crossing unopposed at Grand Gulf, 20 miles or so below Vicksburg. He had previously tried crossing the Mississippi north of Vicksburg, and was forced to withdraw because of the swampy terrain. Then, after crossing the river he didn’t move against Vicksburg directly but instead raced to Jackson to head off Johnston’s relief column, which Pemberton at Vicksburg was depending on.
Once the battle at Jackson was won, Vicksburg was completely cut off from all reinforcements and supplies and victory became simply a matter of time. The failed assaults which you mentioned were indeed useless, but those point out what was probably Grant’s only great flaw as a Commanding Officer: He was always willing to sacrifice lives on chances that *might* work out, and he did it fairly often.
On the other hand, contrast him with McClellan, who could *not* do this under any circumstances, and it says much about why Grant succeeded where more theoretically pure and careful officers like McClellan failed. He was the Vince Lombardi of Generals – he would pound, pound, pound until something worked.
Louie:
Grant understood the nature of modern war whereas Lee did not. Just because Grant was willing to take casualties in the Wilderness Campaign does not mean he did know how to fight a war of maneuver. If you study his actions in the Wilderness you would find out that he consistently out maneuvered Lee at every turn. However, by 1861 warfare had become so skewed against the attacker that he would always take more casualties then the defender. All the conditions that made WWI a bloody indecisive affair were in place by 1864.
Despite being a suburb leader Lee never understood modern warfare and bungled every campaign he commanded. Even his “masterpiece” of Chancellorsville was a near disaster and he only avoided doing Pickett’s charge on the third day when he was distracted by the movement of Sedgwick’s 6th Corp. Longstreet’s actions at Gettysburg are explained by his experience at Chancellorsville where the Army of North Virginia took unsustainable losses for a tactical victory that was strategically indecisive. Lee never figured that out.
Lee’s reputation is a product of southern romanticism. There is no difference between Pickett’s charge and Cold Harbor, except for the fact that Grant acknowledged that after the first assault failed that he should have ended his attack.
Ammo Guy #118
I did not know about that British attempt on Rommel.
The story I heard is that the U.S attempt in 1944 came very close to getting him. He was wounded, and was recovering from the wounds when the Nazis killed him as part of the clean-up after Operation Valkyrie. The well known strafing attack on his car by RAF fighters was in fact by the USAAF and was a deliberate attempt at an assassination. Rommel told his family that it was the Americans that strafed his car, not the British. That fits what I heard.
Funny, you know I have never heard anything about the Axis trying to kill any of our generals. Maybe they thought too poorly of them – but the Germans were sure as heck scared to death of Patton. They did try to take out Roosevelt, Stalin, and Churchill at Tehran.
With our esteemed host’s indulgence, I shall attempt to tie the last few postings together into one magnificent unified theory. I once read that several German officers were seen riding around the South on motorcycles in the 1920s. They were visiting various Civil War battlefields in an effort to understand the maneuvers of Lee and Jackson in order to avoid the trench warfare that characterized The Great War. And, get ready for this, one of these young officers was thought to be a certain Erwin Rommel, who would have been in his early 30s at the time. Supposedly the information brought back to the Fatherland helped form the Blitzkrieg strategies taught to the Wehrmacht in the 1930s. Now this story may be (and probably is) apocryphal, but it’s a damn good yarn and we oughta adopt the approach of old Western publishers, to wit, “when the legend becomes fact, print the legend.”
Ammo Guy:
It makes a nice story but many of the blitzkrieg concepts were developed by the Allies for the never executed plan 1919. Heinz Gudarian gives the most credit for blitzkrieg concepts to an obscure Captain in the French Army who wrote a book called the Army of the Future. His name? Captain Charles De Gaulle.
By the way if there is some merit to the story of the Southern trip to study Lee and Jackson then it explains why the Germans lost. Lee and Jackson were not fighting blitzkrieg; they were fighting Austerlitz and Jena
Bob Murphy,
Thanks for the link to ARL-TR-4403. Very interesting!
So what we have is an airborne system that establishes unique radar signatures for individual human beings. A database of radar signatures associated with known bad guys is established. A Predator monitors a Taliban controlled village and maintains a real time census of inhabitants inside the different buildings. If in a given building, a significant fraction of known bad guy radar signatures is detected then that building wins a free Hell Fire missile courtesy of the US government.
You know what this means? Within a few months all of the Taliban and al Qaeda guys are going to wrapping their heads with tin foil rather than with towels. Then it will be even easier, i.e. zap the guy with tin foil wrapped around his head.
wws said:
“… those point out what was probably Grant’s only great flaw as a Commanding Officer: He was always willing to sacrifice lives on chances that *might* work out, and he did it fairly often. On the other hand, contrast him with McClellan, who could *not* do this under any circumstances, and it says much about why Grant succeeded where more theoretically pure and careful officers like McClellan failed.”
If one reads the correspondence between General Grant and General Sherman, it becomes clear that the two generals saw their troops as “coin” with which they purchased victory. One of General Sherman’s skills was being able to estimate the number of casualties his troops would likely sustain prior to going into battle. He would use that estimate to determine whether or not to initiate a battle, delay engagement or seek reinforcement. Both Grant and Sherman anticipated Boyd’s OODA concepts by over a century and understood the need to maintain constant pressure on their adversaries and constantly search for targets of opportunity. Also, I have nothing but contempt for McClellan. I hate to think about the young men he murdered through incompetence because he was too afraid to do his job as a general.
I think Tdiinva is overly harsh in his criticism of Lee. Lee was always out-manned and out-gunned by the North. Lee triumphed initially through shear tactical cunning and the superior individual fighting quality of this troops (mostly volunteers fighting for home and family). Too early in the Civil War, Lee lost Stonewall Jackson to an accident. Jackson was arguably Lee’s best subordinate general. The central tragedy of the Civil War was that Lee opted to serve the South rather than the North. Thousands of men would have lived full life spans had Lee chosen differently.
119 wws:
I read a book last year on the Vicksburg campaign. Your explanation of Vicksburg pretty well sums up the book. One daring point about Grant’s move towards Jackson was that he outmarched his supply line and lived off the land, something that McClellan would never have done. Grierson’s raid, where Grant had Col. Grierson lead a cavalry contingent from northern Mississippi Baton Rouge,distracted a substantial number of Confederate troops to chase Grierson instead of going after Grant.
Another master stroke of Grant had to do with the disposition of the surrendering Confederate troops at Vicksburg.While Grant initially wanted the troops to be taken prisoner, he assented to Pemberton’s demand that they be permitted to go home on “parole” after surrendering their arms. While this risked the Confederate troops then returning to battle, Grant correctly concluded that most of them would not fight again, which they did not. Their recounting the battle to civilians did not help Confederate morale, either.
Grant’s victory was also due to out-thinking Pemberton and Johnston, which goes against the stereotype of Confederate generals being superior to Union generals.
Eggplant:
Lee and Jackson were only successful against inferior opponents. Even the so called masterpiece of Chancellorsville was only a first day success. Hooker, who recovered from his encounter with a porch roof by day 2, fought Lee to a standstill and placed the Army of the Potomac in an impregnable position if Lee chose to attack on day 3. As I pointed out in the post above, Lee canceled his attack because of Sedgwick’s move. Had Lee attacked on day 3 it would have Gettysburg but this time the Union Army would have had a clear run to Richmond.
Whiskey @ 64 said: “Israel uses targeted assassinations because they don’t have the infrastructure to mount drone attacks. Not enough drones, support airfields in friendly countries
hmm….
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1074654.html
http://www.drzz.info/article-29597966-6.html
not counting the diverse explorations over Lebanon, Syria,Egypt…
and Israel is manufacturing drones, some were sold to Georgia before 08/2008, that’s why Russia got the idea to buy some from Israel too, and today Turkey is also buying drones from Israel
Tdiinva, good job on Grant/Lee. I’d like to do a little of the same with S.L.A. Marshall. His claim in “Men Against Fire” — that in a typical WWII action only 25% of U.S. Army riflemen would fire — is commonly treated as if it were the only thing he ever wrote. Although that claim does not seem to be backed up by any tabulation of hard numbers in his notes, he has never actually been proven wrong on the point: there is no systematic numerical evidence on the other side, either. As Army historian, Marshall conducted many after-action group interviews in Europe and the Pacific, and was uniquely qualified to make such a generalization. His seriousness and fairness as a reporter on the weaknesses and strengths of the U.S. Army from Makin to the Mekong will be apparent to anyone who takes the trouble to read his books. “The Soldier’s Load,” mentioned by another commenter, is one whose lessons we re-learn in every conflict. It’s a shame that the attacks on his credibility began only after he was dead and could not reply.
Alexis
“Only thing that matters is that al-Mabhouh is dead and his assassins are safe”
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3850991,00.html
and according to Gordon Thomas knowledge of the Mossad “processes”, the Mabhouh assassination is typical for the agents
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/7254807/Mossads-licence-to-kill.html
uh, I don’t see anything or anyone else, but that Mabhouh was since long time ago a “target” to be eliminated
Marie,
Nobody is safe here, whatever Ynet reported.
Why is “target” in qoutes in your post? Obviously he was the target. You wanted an arrest and trial? I think you are OK with the basics of what happened.
Wretchard is right. A US missile gets by without protest. We Americans miss often and might kill some vauge 12+ without killing the target. Israel has different criteria. It should.
Spindok
Bill Befort wrote “His claim in “Men Against Fire” — that in a typical WWII action only 25% of U.S. Army riflemen would fire — is commonly treated as if it were the only thing he ever wrote.”
Your comment combined with the Civil War discussion sparked my memory and reminded me of one of a truly incredible artifact dug up a few years back, one of those items which mutely testify to what conditions must have been like for the men involved in those battles.
On a private portion of one of the eastern battlefields (forget which one) a weekend enthusiast found a buried rifle with his metal detector – a fairly common find. It was an Enfield muzzleloader, a standard weapon for that war, but what made it so unique was that the barrel had sixteen balls still packed into it, each with it’s own wadding! What must have happened was clear – the gun had misfired, but in the din of battle the owner of the weapon hadn’t realized it. He then must have aimed the gun, pulled the trigger, and reloaded fifteen more times without ever realizing that nothing was happening!
The sound of battle and concentration of fire had to have been so intense that the men involved could not even distinguish the sound of their own rifles going off in their hands, since no one would knowingly have kept reloading a broken weapon. These conditions are truly unimaginable; I can write the story, but I don’t think I can ever truly appreciate what it must have been like to have actually been in that time, and that place.
Spindok
for this site (french Jews) there isn’t any doubt that Mossad was “in”
http://www.drzz.info/article-26610943.html or how one becomes a good agent(article of the 16/01/09)
http://bit.ly/9CAxfj success for Kidon !
click on the english flag to get the english version)
#132 wws
Among my pastimes, I do living history. My primary role is as a member of Co. “I”, First US Dragoons [1833-55] as a Dragoon artilleryman [12 lb. Mountain Howitzer], but the Dragoons were really a combined arms force. But I help other units and eras as needed, Confederate or Federal. The loading drill for the musket is identical except for one small change in stance in one step used by the Confederates [sometimes]. The command learned by both sides, literally drilled into their heads from their first day in training is “Load in Nine Times, Load!”. Nine specific steps, each movement choreographed, shoulder to shoulder, that is repeated until it is done literally without thinking. Over, and over again.
In combat,your whole world boiled down to keeping the ranks closed up, and going through the loading and firing routine, again and again in a little world bounded by clouds of smoke and the taste of gunpowder. What you found was not uncommon in the confusion, especially since black powder muskets don’t really “kick” like modern weapons, but rather “shove”.
They found muskets like that one on every battlefield of the Civil war when recovering weapons afterwards, and also they found loose rammers [not ramrods] on the field. When they got to Step 7. “return-RAMMER”, some skipped the step in their rush to keep up the fire and went to Step 8. “PRIME”. Of course when you get to “FIRE”, the rammer goes downrange. That makes your next iteration of Step 5. “Draw-RAMMER” and all that follows somewhat problematical.
I envy your friend. I do have one actual historic muzzle-loader, a British East India Co. “Windus Pattern” Brown Bess made in 1808. It has an interesting history, but that goes beyond here.
Subotai Bahadur
wws: #119 – “I think the strategy being referred to was what Grant did to set up the siege. When all senior military officials thought it was impossible, he ran his transport ships underneath the guns of Vicksburg on a dark night and then effected a crossing unopposed at Grand Gulf, 20 miles or so below Vicksburg. He had previously tried crossing the Mississippi north of Vicksburg, and was forced to withdraw because of the swampy terrain….”
Yes, after months of fits and starts, and trying everything else, Grant found a way to crack that nut (Vicksburg). But there was no CS force near him that was of any real threat, and so he had the opportunity to try different things until something worked. Determination, and troops, he had aplenty.
Btw, I had ancesters on both sides there, so I don’t mean to denigrate any of the soldiers involved.
@114 Ashen
Same here – I’ve never killed anyone (I once saved a choking woman – the odd thing is I was quite calm at the time but somewhat unnerved afterwards) but I’ve taken care of many dying people and have enough acquaintance with the grim reaper to know both the necessity and the futility of that confrontation. Why some people survive and others succumb is a great mystery. Anyway I can appreciate your point of view
@59 wretchard
I read somewhere that the Japanese designate certain people as living national treasures, If we had such a thing here, you’d have my vote. Pieces like this one are what sets this blog apart and we are all the better for your wisdom.
BTW thanks all for the Grant/Lee discussion – I’ve learned more about the Civil War from the comment threads at Belmont Club than I ever did at school (and in my day they still taught American history, so that’s saying a lot!)
Lee was a great leader, and a great strategist. Not such a great tactician, though.
Odd counter-intuitive; Lee and Grant opposed each other as ANV and AOP commanders for less than one year. Eleven months from the Wilderness to Appomattox.
The MOSSAD put a symphonic orchestra on stage! As if you couldn’t get into Dubai by sea. Or private jet! And, then? How old are the men pictured? Is this a retired team? Perhaps people who teach skills at headquarters; purposely tasked with BEING SEEN?
Since when do Israelis use hallways? What if they blew thru walls, and came down from the ceiling? Everyone in Dubai is lazy. All help, as it built itself into bankruptcy, came from imported skills, from abroad. Including doctors. Nurses. Electricians. Computer technicians, as well.
Now, Dubai wants to tell you they “solved the crime in 24 hours” … but they can’t tell you how Mab-hoo died. Let alone, how he got inside the room with the bolt, inside, drawn shut. Maybe, the bathtub hides the link to “under ground?” Sure. The arabs are pissed. And, the MOSSAD pulled of an orchestrated beauty.
Hope this thread’s not dead. I just wanted to add that I’ve viewed the Dubai “scenario” more than once. So it took time for me to see beyond the ‘circles.’ And, then I saw the ‘victim’ alights during DAYTIME. So, he lands when it’s light outside. Did you notice how few cars are on the road? Did you notice no kids in the background? Did you notice the ‘victim’ comes in, supposedly off such a crowded plane that there wasn’t even one seat available for one bodyguard? Sure doesn’t look like a big crowd got off the plane! Do some people just parachute down?
Bankruptcy has hit Dubai very hard! That’s why you see in the limited clips they show you!
As to the age of the two guys in turquoise, carrying tennis rackets, you could’a fooled me. But the guy with bowed legs doesn’t look like a tennis player. Even the way the rackets are held, showed discomfort. Or you’d stick the face of the racket under your armpit. Were the shirts bought wholesale? You wear turquoise when you don’t want to be noticed?
Man this story is so full of holes! I really hope people view this film, not as a ’24-hour-job well done,’ approach. But complete madness. And, contacts to London. Where the news gets fed, hoping someone picks up a bat, and beats Israel. But go ahead. Show me the crime? Where’s the crime? And, habeus corpus. Don’t you need to at least see a body? Why is all investigative details missing? Body. Crime scene. Gun. Rod. Electrical equipment.
Why is one person, also in a turquoise shirt, identified as a MOSSAD killer, wearing, on his left hand, a vinyl glove? Who put this script together? Was it done to mess with Stephen Spielberg’s mind?
Today, Dubai adds another tidbit. Via London. The instrument of death was a bedside lamp. Where the wires were removed. To electrocute Mab-hoo. Did the killers then not return the wires to the proper place?
As to the bolted room door, they’re saying it was easy to flip the bolt from outside the room, IF you were a thin lady. With a thin wrist. Did they add chain to the links, too?
I remember Entebbe. Someday, we will see gifts apparent here. And, Stephen Spielberg’s brains have been played with.
Sure thing. SPOOKING FOR DUMMIES. By Christmas? A best seller. Anyone gets arrested, ahead? Not Israelis. While getting arrested among arabs is quite easy. They just come and knock on your door. stalin perfected this.
I can see how doors get answered: “Sorry, my husband’s not home, but would you take my brother?”
Good commens, Carol Herman. Whar I came here looking for since there seems to be some question about what really happened, and I’m tired of reading about Obama’s latest egocentric gaffe.
Haven’t been around BC in a while. Wanted to look around to see if all the regulars are regularly posting … that no one is MIA because he got fed up with the Feds and decided to ram his little airplane into a Texas IRS building.
Question: if you’re so poor that you can’t pay your taxes and get the IRS off your back, how can you afford your own airplane?
wretchard #60:
And then you’ll find yourself perhaps involuntarily, on your knees in a darkened church thanking God that you didn’t have to do it, knowing strangely enough, that you would have and that you would be there as well if you hadn’t and the informer had gone on to wipe out your cell; a sinner either way with no escape. But had you done it, you would have been asking God for forgiveness in the classic Act of Contrition which acknowledges that you have lost heaven and deserve the pains of hell. Either to act or not act in war is damnation. Only when a door opens mysteriously can you be saved and that’s when you discover grace.
More that all your eloquence and political-historical insight, it is for this combination of worldly verisimilitude and (if I may say it) faith, that I keep reading BC. There are a thousand “religious” blogs, and others that discuss political and personal ethics. It is not necessary to think they are insincere or cynical, but their writers almost never come close to such profound understanding of what Paul meant when he wrote (including himself in his meaning):
and farther down:
All may we come to share in His heavenly kingdom.
NanCee, kids on free lunch programs regularly come to class with cell phones. People afford what they want to afford.
Meanwhile, today, (Sunday), London came in for more bonbardment from the Dubia ‘super chief.’ It seems the day after Mab-hoo was killed “the wife called the front desk complaining she couldn’t reach her husband by cell phone.” Excuse me? Hamas had no spooks on the ground to whom she could speak? Just to check?
If it wasn’t for LILLIHAMMER, where the MOSSAD got caught on a Palestinian fish hook. And, yes. They killed an innocent waiter, who was set up to LOOK LIKE a terrorist on Israel’s most wanted list. I bought a clue! The clue is that you can run “look alikes.” And, the MOSSAD just got even.
How was the script devised? By looking so stupid (and still not caught), it was an ingenious plan. Believe it. Or not. (You know when they flew into ENTEBBE, the stage was crowded with a flight landing. And, a number of flagged diplomatic cars, traveling with sirens blazing. And, flags on the front of the cars. There were more than 100 hostages.
If you could fool Idi Amin, you can fool those in Dubai. Who went bankrupt. And, where so much talent they had hired, had to leave without even final paychecks. Leaving their Mercedes Benz’s in the airport lots. Where were those cars when you were shown Dubai, in broad daylight? Hmm?