Noah Shachtman at Wired reports that Iranian helicopters have carried out airstrikes on Kurdish villages in Iraq, the first since the US toppled Saddam Hussein.
Iranian aircraft attacked three villages inside Iraq over the weekend. The airstrikes — Iran’s first on Iraqi soil since the U.S. invasion — could complicate the Obama administration’s efforts to normalize relations with Tehran.
“The bombardments appeared to have targeted the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), an Iranian Kurdish separatist group which has launched attacks on Iran from rear-supply bases in the mountains of northern Iraq,” AFP reports. Iran has attacked the Kurdish group before, with artillery. But this is the first time the Iranians followed up, with assaults from the air.
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The PKK and its offshoot, the PJAK has long been trying to play Turkey and Iran off against each other, while attempting to stay in the good graces of the US. A Wikipedia backgrounder on PJAK notes that it has presented itself as a possible instrument the US could use against Iran, and the US has been accused of yielding to the temptation.
On April 18, 2006, US Congressman Dennis Kucinich sent a letter to US president George W. Bush in which he expressed his judgment that the US is likely to be supporting and coordinating PJAK, since PJAK operates and is based in Iraqi territory, which is under the control of the US-supported Kurdistan Regional Government. In November 2006, journalist Seymour Hersh writing in The New Yorker, supported this claim, stating that the US military and the Israelis are giving the group equipment, training, and targeting information in order to create internal pressures in Iran. …
In August 2007, the leader of PJAK visited Washington, DC in order to seek more open support from the US both politically and militarily but it was later said that he only made limited contacts with officials in Washington. … In one of the first actions of the Obama administration, PJAK was declared a terrorist organization, freezing any assets the PJAK has under U.S. jurisdiction and prohibiting American citizens from doing business with the organization.
Obama’s decision to decisively cut loose the PJAK is probably driven by the desire to get in the good graces of both Turkey and Iran, for whom the Kurdish separatists are a bother. Until recently Teheran actually supported the PJAK’s predecessors against Ankara, according to some sources. But now both Turkey and Iran seem to have decided to jointly crack down on the PJAK according to a liberal think tank, the Washington Institute.
In the 1990s, the fact that Tehran provided safe haven to the PKK created problems for Turkey — a country whose secular democracy stands in diametric opposition to Iran’s regime. More recently, however, Tehran’s policy seems to have changed. Since 2003, Iran has been fighting PJAK in an increasingly effective bid to win Turkey’s support. These efforts help explain PJAK’s bellicosity toward Tehran. At the same time, Iran’s involvement in the PKK/PJAK problem has proven to be a successful public diplomacy tool, winning over Turkish public opinion. Unlike during the 1990s, when most Turks took issue with Tehran due to its support for the PKK and other issues (e.g., the assassination of secular Turkish intellectuals by Islamist terrorist cells), the Turkish media now portrays Iran as a friendly country that is helping Ankara against the PKK.
The Jamestown Foundation noted that the Bush Administration appeared to toy with the idea of using PJAK against Iran. That has now changed with the Obama administration. Ironically, it predicts that Iran will seek to keep PJAK alive in some form, returning to its former role as a sponsor in order to keep that corner of Iraq on the boil.
The PKK’s growing visibility in Iran and an acquiescent American attitude towards the PKK presence in northern Iraq (which came to be perceived as a de facto rapprochement between Washington and the PKK) pitted Iran and the PKK against each other. PJAK has increasingly engaged Iranian military personnel since 2003 in a bid to gain media attention. In response, Iran has occasionally shelled PJAK positions in the Kandil Mountain region. There were also unconfirmed reports from Kurdish sources of cross-border operations by Iranian security forces in September, 2007 (Today’s Zaman, August 24, 2007; McClatchy, August 23, 2007). Like Turkey, Iran preferred to present PJAK as an extension of the PKK and lent support to Turkey’s fight against the PKK. In this way it sought to boost its own popularity among the Turkish public and to undercut Turkish-American ties.
Although the Bush administration added the PKK to the list of designated terrorist organizations, it was more tolerant toward PJAK, which led to allegations that America and Israel supported PJAK as a way to destabilize Iran. [9] Shortly after coming to power, the Obama administration designated PJAK as a terrorist organization controlled by the PKK. By this decision, Washington signaled that it would adopt a more principled approach in the fight against terrorism. This development also signifies a change in the American attitude towards the intricate relationships between Turkey, Iran and the PKK.”
Obama is an Islamist, so no surprise he would give up a valuable lever on Iran.
Obama and Dems have no intention whatsoever of stopping Iran’s nuke programs, indeed they want it to proceed.
Dems win if America gets defeated decisively and driven into neo-isolationism. That has been their consistent argument from the start of the 1960′s, after Kennedy’s assassination. However, that gamble has two risks:
1. That Iran or some other enemy won’t nuke America and scare most survivors into that “Silverado Moment” where Kevin Kline realizes pal Linda Hunt can’t be hurt if villain Brian Dennehy is dead.
2. People and nations cut loose by the ending of the Pax American don’t simply nuke up and nuke first, setting of a global nuclear arms race that ends with nearly every non-state criminal or terrorist organization having at least a few nukes the way they now have rocket launchers and mortars.
Both of these outcomes are highly likely, and Obama and Dems are probably going to pay a high price.
The West generally is hugely divided on the following lines: class or status, gender, and married/single. Certain groups favor strong action to stave off disaster, others prefer power to staving off disaster and giving up prominence of position. Right now the role of gender has given forces of what could be called Obamaism the advantage globally.
That all *MIGHT* end if several cities die in a nuclear blaze. I think even if NYC were nuked the balance of power would not change, SWPL Yuppies plus Women and other groups would have enough demographic, institutional, and political power to simply force a Vichy style surrender. It’s only when the question is Fight or Die? that the answer becomes different.
The “Three Conjectures” of a certain respected essayist suggest that a solution may manifest itself organically in the event of a paralysis of leadership which continues beyond a certain threshold.
Hey, this is just speculative fiction.
“Call it Evolution in Action.”
actually, i think this is the relevant bit from the three conjectures:
Even if the President decided to let all Americans die to expiate their historical guilt, why would Islamic terrorists stop after that? They would move on to Europe and Asia until finally China, Russia, Japan, India or Israel, none of them squeamish, wrote -1 x 10^9 in the final right hand column.
so, they’d lose, but we’d be dead.
so, they’d lose, but we’d be dead
This how tragedies happen. Recorded history is replete with one empire conquering another; of one set of brutes finishing off another. How rarely do we read about reason prevailing over the sword. More typically, there is a brief rule of law and civility between two eras of untold brutality, almost as if they were calms between long episodes of collective madness.
The challenge the Three Conjectures presents is how to convince civilization to win justly and proportionately to avoid bloodshed instead of leaving things to a final reckoning by merciless men. But due to greed and laziness things usually go from bad to worse simply because politicians care more about short-term benefits than long term ones until things reach the final pinch of the vise. The very same dynamics which brought the subprime housing bubble are at work in world politics. The same inflation of expectations, the same kicking of the can down the road until everything comes tumbling down. When it happens to the economy we call it a depression. When it happens in geopolitics we call it something far worse.
I was suppose it was too much to hope that the Barney Frank level of wisdom and accountability could ever produce anything more than a smash-up. It’s probably more realistic to hope that we will continue to remain collectively lucky; that in the multiplicity of outcomes that our complex world makes possible, we continue through some miracle to land on our feet; teetering but never quite falling. The ultimate mystery in history is why humans never quite manage to save themselves from the obvious dangers and yet never quite make an end to the race.
#5 Wretchard — “The ultimate mystery in history is why humans never quite manage to save themselves from the obvious dangers and yet never quite make an end to the race.”
My own optimistic hope is that the Strong Anthropic Principle has a hand in the outcome. Or better yet, the Final Anthropic Principle.
whiskey:
Both of these outcomes are highly likely, and Obama and Dems are probably going to pay a high price.
===================
They are not going to get re-elected?
According to the BBC, there is a military mutiny in Georgia. Maybe we should wait for the KGB to fill us in — give us the why and the what-not.
It looks like a relatively small group was involved in Georgia, and allegedly backed by Russia.
Apparently one of the coup leaders was bright enough to get himself videotaped claiming Russia would help them.
But it’s still early. We’ll know before long. I’m e-mailing and chatting with friends in Tbilisi, and it’s not like outright panic has set in.
Dan,
Twenty years ago I was working in the Central Users Site of The University of Chicago Computing Organization in Harper Library as the People’s Liberation Army attacked Tien an Men Square. The palpable sense of both being there and being unable to help flowed through me. Unfortunately the logs that I had saved were lost years ago but I remember them, “The soldiers are gathering at the train station” “They are entering the square” “Help us, they are killing us.” Like what Wilson purportedly said of the new medium of cinema after a screening of D.W. Griffith’s The Birth of a Nation “It is like writing history with lightning, and my only regret is that it is all so terribly true.” Real people are dealing with life and death while the children in Washington are busy calling Hollywood for rewrite to fix the plot.
Totally OT…
What if O nominates Michelle for the SC?
LOTM,
I can only imagine the feelings and impressions you had then, and no doubt still carry with you today.
It has been difficult to really get my mind around the scenario near Tbilisi… friends sharing normal, everyday photos with me each day, shopping, going to school, while at the same time, thousands of Russian troops are just over yonder hill… 25 miles away.
And not a bloody thing I can do about it.
10. michael hoskins,
Well at least we wouldn’t have to look at (or hear about) her manly arms and $600.00 sneakers anymore, those robes cover a multitude of sins.
OTOH, Would she be any more of a disaster than the others on the list. I heard that he was considering Jenny Granholm, Governor of the late lamented state of Michigan, as a possible choice.
The Three Conjectures included numbers, including the vastness of the arsenals involved. There is no conceivable outcome in the next generation or two in which a nuclear war would end with the US “dead” and the enemies still standing. Comparing projected weapons of the Islamists, NorKs and unseen allies to those of the US is comparable to comparing President Obama’s $100M “belt-tigtening” to his $1T+ annual deficits. The differences are measured in multiple orders of magnitude.
The best path to peace in a world projected to proliferate ICBM/nukes is the robust missiles defense that is about to come to fruition thanks to the renewed effort over the last 8 years, the unmatched air superiority of our F-22, the B-2 and the envisioned “2018 bomber” and of course the unseen intelligence operations that have thwarted Al Qaeda since 2001, shut down AQ Khan and who knows what else.
All of these defenses, these sure paths to lasting or at least strongly defensible peace, are the ones targeted for extinction by the Obama Administration, in the name of peace.
America won’t lose if things continue down this path of de-winging the Eagle, all of the world will lose.
If I remember correctly the PKK, and it’s off-shoots, are Communists.
So now I am confronted with a tableau of Islamists and Communists killing each other, ahhh, what a dilemma. It reminds me of the movie “Enemy at the Gates”; Nazis and Commies killing each other, I ended up cheering for the bullets.
I can only hope that they both lose.
However the Iranians conducting airstrikes into Iraqi airspace is an issue, odd that they hadn’t done so earlier, when the PKK et al were more active. Perhaps they are screwing up their nerves to poke Obama in the eye and are first testing the waters for a reaction?
Anton. Other horrors, Bill Ayers, Rev. Wright, Joe Biden (a way to get rid of that carbunckle lol), Barney Frank.
The scary thought is I can only hope I am joking.
15. michael hoskins,
Ohh, the horror of it all!
My only hope is that none of those are lawyers!
You Do have to be at least a lawyer to be appointed to SCOTUS , right?
From today’s American Spectator online:
Look to these four approaches — the essence of an emerging Obama Doctrine — to win our President a Nobel Peace Prize, even as the world itself descends into chaos and war.
Anton, Sorry, you do not have to be a lawyer. You only have to be appointed and approved.
anton,
There is nothing in the Constitution that says only lawyers can be appointed to the SCOTUS or any bench.
Dan,
From the AP wire this bit is ominous
How horrible it must be to be a small nation and knowing that you are alone and the Bear is coming. Poland must look East and West and wonder, what has changed? The thing is that much has changed. The problem now is one of will more than capacity. Poland could probably fight Russia to a draw if she had any support. Nato could kick Putin’s hollow husk of a regime in. The problem with the West is that it is turning inward and giving up. Like the dog that has stopped eating and waits for the end, they will not fight.
Tony@13: “There is no conceivable outcome in the next generation or two in which a nuclear war would end with the US “dead” and the enemies still standing.” and others.
Part of the consideration of these scenarios is that Obama has none of the background in world history necessary to understand the forces arrayed against us and the necessity for the occasional use (or at least the real potentiality) of violence to persuade or dissuade them. This was the greatest danger from his election. His approach to Foreign Affairs is consistent with dealing in larger city politics; negotiation in public and using political force (opinion) as a weapon. This political force can take the form of blackmail, ridicule, real scandal or bureaucratic harassment. Very rarely does it involve real violence and then only in a very focused way (on an individual) and then if it can be denied.
Nations operate off fear. Fear of retaliation is what keeps most in line. The real problem with Iran is that they have no such fear. Spengler says they are already dying of demographic rot. Their belief system says the-imam-in-the-well is coming soon or, if not, it doesnt matter as long as they kill the Jews.
They will not be persuaded and care not what others think. Nor will the NoKos. Nor will the Russians. Nor will the Somali pirates.
I think his decision will be to kick it down the road and negotiate. Problem is its not that far to the end of the road.
There is a terrorism issue here, but there also is a larger nationalism issue. The situation is ripening for the Kurds to get their rights as a nation to conduct their government, economic and educational business in the Kurdish language.
The surrounding Arabic, Turkish, Persian and other nations can acquiesce to that reality in either the hard way or the easy way. The hard way is to keep trying to suppress the Kurds violently. The easy way is to grant the Kurds their basic national rights.
The USA ought to support the Kurds’ national aspirations and ought to advise the surrounding nations to grant those rights peacefully.
The Kurds have been our best allies in the region since we invaded Iraq in 2003. When others try to depict the Kurds as a bunch of terrorists, the USA should be depicting them as a nation that deserves much more respect and autonomy from the surrounding nations.
To clarify my inapt last para:
I think his decision in dealing with all National Security crises will be to kick them down the road and negotiate. Problem is its not that far to the end of the road.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KE05Df03.htmlThis Asia Times Piece renders a great deal of clarity to the currently murky situation in Pakistan.
21 Comments
1. whiskey:
Obama is an Islamist,
……….
Yeah but is he a shia or sunnia islamist. Its not clear that he knows the difference. the quid pro quo for loss of power in iraq– that the sunnis want– is for syria to get sunni leadership. If the Iranians get nukes its a deal breaker for both the Israelis and the Saudis. The impression currently, is as fidel says “obama is superficial.” He bows to the Saudi king because his dad’s family would do that. But that’s about as much as he knows about that neck of the desert.
This is an interesting diplomatic moment for the Arabs. They like to say: me against my brother, me and my brother against my cousin, me and my brother and my cousin against the stranger.
So the question is: are the Israelis their distant cousins or strangers? One one hand the Israelis have Chinese restaurants and biotech, a clear sign of being a stranger. On the other hand, while they know what it’s like to spar with the Israelis, their experiences with the Turks and Persians are a little less predictable, especially if there is no major counterweight.
Hey, even Cardinal Richielieu could make common cause with the Mussulmen against Christendom. This will be interesting.
The asia times piece above informs this article about evacuations in the swat valley.
I was suppose it was too much to hope that the Barney Frank level of wisdom and accountability could ever produce anything more than a smash-up.
Wretch, do you mean a smash up like a hamster in a test tube or more along the lines of Sodom & Gomorrah?
Evil Pundit said:
“My own optimistic hope is that the Strong Anthropic Principle has a hand in the outcome. Or better yet, the Final Anthropic Principle.”
The problem with the Final Anthropic Principle is the universe has billions of galaxies and each galaxy has billions of stars. A well designed universe by definition has ample statistical opportunity to fulfill its designer’s intentions.
Our dilemma is knowing whether or not we’re a sperm cell swimming up the wrong fallopian tube. History is full of examples of civilizations/cultures going wrong, e.g. the Maya, the people of Rapa Nui, the Anasazi, the Carthagians, etc.
In my humble opinion, we’re in serious trouble and need to stop making major mistakes.
anton said:
“If I remember correctly the PKK, and it’s off-shoots, are Communists.”
This is correct. The PKK are not useful tools for American policy. Ultimately they would cause us more harm than good (think: Mujahideen in Afghanistan).
#28 — Eggplant.
I take your point. Well, I did describe the idea as an “optimistic hope”.
You’re right, though, this is no time to be making mistakes.
I have concluded the US is committing a grave, long-term error to side w/Iran and Turkey against the PKK.
Notice the PKK is the only Marxist group that has never had the US State Dept advocate on their behalf. That tells me they are NOT hostile to our long-term interests.
For years we had DoS whiners complain we were “pushing nationalists into the arms of the communists.” When that is manifestly true for the Kurds of Turkey, the DoS whines that they are incorrigible communists.
Hmmmmmmmm.
Communists are always hostile to our interests. Some just don’t have us on the front burner. But it doesn’t mean they don’t intend to try and cook and eat our goose. Capitalism and Freedom are anathema to them.
Jim
I read Totten’s article on the PKK and there are two groups. One is communist and the other has evolved to more nationalists. The communist one is killing civilians and the nationalist one targets military. Both groups and the government in Kurd area of Iraq believe that their territory covers the areas of Turkey and Iran where Kurds lives.
There is a lot of logic to ethnic cleansing. It makes borders more rational. As long as an ethnic group is agitating for a state and their people cover a larger swath of territory there will be provocation and retaliations. Iran’s raid is on the same part as Turkeys raid last year. They are done for the same reason. Revenge and retaliation for actions of Kurds in their states.
The report did not give any details. I recall that Turkey had bombed village in Kurdish areas of Iraq. Primarily the mountainous border. The villages were empty at the time.
I wonder is this had the same result, bombing remote and empty villages