Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof is on the ground in Benghazi, Libya, working with the Shabakat Group which she says “has an extensive network in country amongst the transitional government, tribal chiefs, rebel forces, former Qaddafi officials, and the civilian populace.”
I don’t know her personally, but we have many friends and colleagues in common, people I trust more than anyone else in this business. So when I found out she was over there and had embedded, so to speak, with the anti-Qaddafi rebels, I had to ask her some questions that hardly anyone seems to have an answer to yet.
MJT: Who, exactly, are these rebels you’ve met? Are they democrats? Tribal leaders? Islamists? All of the above? What?
Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof: The rebels I’ve met so far are mainly young, educated, middle class, urban people with a powerful wish for democracy.
If you look at the demographics in Libya, 82.6 percent of the people are literate, an estimated 88 percent live in cities—mostly in Benghazi and Tripoli—and about half the population is under the age of 15. So the young urban rebels in Benghazi may be fairly representative.
The tribes exist here, but they’re more of a cultural phenomenon than a political one. I don’t think anyone here imagines, or wants, the tribes stepping up to power, though this may differ somewhat between regions.
About the Islamists—there are radical elements amongst the rebels, to be sure, but they are a minority, and they’re all grateful to the West at the moment. You would be amazed to see the number of people around here waving Western flags and thanking the West, especially France.
In Benghazi, every person I’ve met so far has insisted on showing me the bridge in town where the Qaddafi troops arrived and started firing—and that bridge is actually inside Benghazi—saying he would cleanse the city “street by street, and house by house.” They all say, “Allah saved us, he sent us French and British and American planes like angels, Alhamdulillah.”
Hillary Clinton said she thought we saved thousands of lives with the no-fly-zone that night. We may have saved tens or even hundreds of thousands lives. The residents of Benghazi, like the rest of the Libyan people, will always remember this, and it may well diminish the radical Islamist threat from here in the future.
This is only my personal assessment, of course, and I’ve only been on the ground a short time, but my gut feeling is that we should do everything we can to support these people. A friend of mine wrote in a op-ed a couple of weeks ago that they’re like the “Libyan tea party,” and that seems about right. It really does look like a genuine nationwide people’s movement for freedom.
MJT: What’s the mood there right now? Are people hopeful? Afraid? Maybe a little of both?
Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof: They’re shocked by Qaddafi’s brutality. Even though he has never been a nice guy, they’re shocked that he is willing to bomb his own country and kill so many people. I don’t think anyone imagined he would go so far.
There’s a great energy in this place. People are optimistic, but also nervous. It’s exciting and tense.
MJT: Do we have any good reasons to believe the rebels will treat defeated Qaddafi loyalists any better than Qaddafi’s forces would treat them?
Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof: I doubt the rebels are being nice to Qaddafi’s people they catch, and the African mercenaries are especially hated, but they can’t match Qaddafi in violence. They won’t bomb civilian areas or conduct campaigns of mass “cleansing” and rape. Qaddafi’s violence is on an entirely different level.
We do need to be watch out, though, after the conflict ends, in case Libya gets into a situation like the French Revolution where everyone who was even remotely connected to Qaddafi gets killed.
MJT: Are the rebels using NATO as a tool, or are they genuinely pro-Western? Can you tell?
Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof: They’re genuinely surprised that they’re getting so much help from the West, and they are very very grateful for it. Everyone is saying, “Sarkozy saved Benghazi! Thank you Sarkozy, and thank you Cameron and Obama.” The West is heroic here in Benghazi.
MJT: Are any women involved, or is the rebel movement strictly a man’s world?
Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof: I haven’t heard of any women being on the front lines fighting, but they’re doing a lot of work in Benghazi. The rebel media center, for instance, has some very smart young women—many of them Western educated—helping foreign journalists, organizing press conferences, and so on.
MJT: CNN reporters in Tripoli were taken by government minders to a funeral for civilians killed in air strikes, but the funeral was obviously staged, there were no grieving family members present, and some of the coffins were empty. Hamas and Hezbollah have staged stunts like this when fighting Israel. Have you seen or heard of the rebels doing anything similar?
Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof: I haven’t seen or heard of anything like that at all.
MJT: How are they treating you personally?
Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof: Exceptionally well. They have given me free office space, and I have a lovely assistant, driver, and translator working for free. I haven’t paid for a single meal since I arrived. Everybody here is working for free. They’re all volunteers, and they treat all foreign press, aid workers, and others, like myself, with the utmost support and respect.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/president-obama-authorizes-covert-libyan-rebels/story?id=13259028
I don’t know Michael. I have a bad feeling about this. Everyone is our friend until they’re done with us. Egypt is so disgusted they are talking about normalization with Iran. There are moe than a few who think this will ultimately play to Iran’s advantage. Hizb’Allah and AQ fighters have been fighting with the rebels. Tell me how this isn’t a strategic nightmare for Israel and even KSA. The French saved Benghazi? Well the strikes that followed against Qaddafi’s 32 brigade by the US stopped Qaddafi from taking Benghazi. Already the history is being revised partly because our President hasn’t been very honest from the start.
Oh, and the covert aid? What a fine example of Executive power attacked by Obama when Bush used it. It violates the UN prohibition of military imports. Cheney must be laughing, or crying……
As in most cases, the outcome will pick the winners and losers.
Well, that article referred to her as a “public relations executive”. And, Michael, that’s very much what this looks like. Pro-rebel Public Relations. Too rosy a picture by far. For instance, I have no doubt the majority of the rebels are well educated, and that many of them are actually WESTERN educated. However, that does not mean they are pro-west. There was a time when I read every English language blog around and none of those young western educated Libyans were or are “pro-west”. Not one. I do believe they are genuinely surprised and genuinely grateful for the help they have gotten from the west but I made a comment about how quickly people can return to their “default settings” a week or two back. I don’t believe Libyan defaults are something that should make us happy, just as the defaults in every other Arab country shouldn’t be something we get enthusiastic about. We are not liked. And I think we’re just fooling ourselves if we think some good will with Libyans in the short term will translate into a long-term change of attitude. That wasn’t even true with the French and the British post World War II, so why would it be true in a place like Libya now?
Don’t get me wrong. I think we need to go for the best outcome we can in Libya, and I think we should pursue good relations with “new” Libya if and when it emerges, but this kind of irrational exuberance is just going to lead to more bitter disappointment later on.
The more sober analysis I have been reading is not nearly so optimistic. It only takes a name change and a conciliatory tone and the Muslim Brotherhood can get control. The most organized will claw to the top of the heap. Once there, they seem unlikely to be budged. I fear arming them better may come back to haunt us, but we have seen war by half-measures before.
I think in countries where the tyrant was secular, the people probably have a sympathy for religious leaders and the MB probably looks appealing. In countries terrorized by religious fanatics like Iran, the people lean more towards the West to a degree. The mistake is to inflate wealth and education. Bin Laden wasn’t poor or uneducated. Look at Egypt. The MB took the biggest punishment from Mubarak which earns them street cred. You see what I’m getting at. A good example is Hamas. They displaced a more secular PLO. South Sudan springs from a religious North. The problem of course is displaced nationalism blunted by hatred of the regime. Erdogan tries to channel it, Egyptian military wishes it could. I wouldn’t underestimate this effect on the “revolutionary”.
If Obama is right, then ironically he’s betting on what Bush started. He might want to take a good look at Afghanistan and Iraq to see the obvious dangers and issues that required hundreds of thousands of US soldiers and thousands of US lives. And dumping Mubarak may have been his worst impulsive move yet.He was tougher on Mubarak’s offer than Assad’s.
Upon request and reflection I deleted the first two comments in this thread, (and also one of mine that I wrote in response), for violating guideline number 3. I am not going to indulge gossipy tabloid-trash style attacks against my interview subject.
Michael. I watched CNN reporters scan the crowd in Tahrir Square praising them in flowerly words. It was the Dawn of a new wonderful age. Just people wanting freedom. A few hours later in the same place Logan was beaten for 30 minutes. One Egyptian friend asked me if the West had a clue about the “street”.
If you watched Stewart last night you would see some full blown praise for the rebels and the West from a Libyan. He thought we should do this intervention everywhere though admittedly, he wasn’t a supporter of Bush or invading Iraq. He dismissed any bad consequences for us and had little to say why Arabs aren’t fighting themselves. Has the Arab League dropped a single bomb? And will they be part of a stabilization force?
Should we train people who like Bin Laden will come to bite us in the ass? Shall we teach Hizb’Allah how to take out tanks and defeat artillery?
Nor should you Michael.
Michael – thanks to you and Susanne Tempelhof for this report from the field. I’m sure that there are some people who were formerly (or are currently) Islamists in the ranks of the rebels, but the thing about the Middle East is that people will change their alliances and their ideologies when it suits them. It’s just different there.
Mr. Totten, I’ll apologize for being one of the one’s who posted a link to what turns out to be a less then reputable source. I should have dug a bit deeper.
But I still think the lady’s report is so optimistic that it it difficult to believe.
Proreason,
Thanks for the apology, no worries.
I still think the lady’s report is so optimistic that it it difficult to believe.
Well, for what it’s worth, I don’t think it’s hard to believe at all. What she is seeing is exactly what I’d expect to see if I were there myself, and she’s reporting what other colleagues of mine have seen, too. If I didn’t have a book launch right now I would be there, and I may well end up there after my book launch is over.
Personally, I’m pessimisitic about how all this will turn out in the end, so I’m with you there, but that doesn’t mean what Susanne is saying is wrong.
I’ve known Susanne for a long time — and she has done amazing work for over 6 years in Kabul with a Strategic Communications company she set up there together with locals, and working with NATO, Afghan government and the Afghan National Army. She’s not a “pro-Rebel” PR mouthpiece at all, but someone quite sorely needed on the ground to tell us what they’re about, and to tell them what we are.
Thanks for the report from Susanne Tempelhof on the ground.
My concern is the rebels poor military effectiveness against tanks and heavy weapons from a trained military and mercenary force.
we could take out every electromagnetic device in Libya with ease in less than 3 hours and freeze the situation, when the sun comes up the Libyan army surrenders or is dead–they will not be able to run as the tanks will not start.
The risk will be the loss of power to hospitals and subsequent collateral damage.
We can shield some locations by precise focusing –but the system is not perfect–yet
Whether we should or not have got involved is now a sunk cost–we need to end it fast and cut off the head of the snake–Daffy.
Maxtrue: If Obama is right, then ironically he’s betting on what Bush started.
I agree. I’ve never bought into the notion that we had the ability to influence what people in other countries thought of us to any substantial degree, but I found the claims that we could at least a little charming in a naive kind of way when they were coming from the neocons. They seemed (and seem) sincere in that. However, when leftists who are anti-imperialism/anti-capitalism and just counter-culture towards the west in general start telling me tall tales about how many brownie points the west is picking up with Arabs I can’t help but start seeing a lot of red flags. It seems very cynical and very manipulative for the far left to be furthering their own anti-west agenda by claiming people in from other cultures will like us better if we do x,y, and z.
And you raise a good point about the obviously well-orchestrated effort in Egypt to keep all the anti-west sentiment in that country under wraps and out of public view during the protests, Max. Somebody was coaching them, I’m sure. I wonder how many from the Egyptian Youth Movement went to “democracy” workshops run by leftist NGOs?
Anyway, my personal opinion is that Libyans are nicer people and are less radical than Egyptians. It’s not unreasonable to think the US can have a better relationship with Libya in the future than it has in the past.
From what I’ve seen so far the rebels are going to need alot of help on the ground. They look poorly armed and poorly organized. And with Gaddafy embolded by Obamas promise not to send in ground troops (he took the offensive as soon as the speech ended) they look dispirited as well. Looks like we’re headed towards(not so)covert action and a protracted “humanitarian intervention”. Joy.
This Susanne Tempelhof in print reads a little too enthusiastic and youthful to me. She may be a very fine, well informed, well intentioned witness over there “telling it as she sees it”…..but something indefinable in the tone of her printed quotes indicates an immaturity. She has to start somewhere to gain experience and credibility….that takes a long time, but her voice right there, right now is not carrying much weight.
I’d be willing to bet these young men, urban, rather educated (by whose standards?) adventurous, very animated, and “hip” for their particular and immediate circumstance, comprise the bad guys also infiltrating and using this “main chance” as a vehicle to gain any slightest sleeper-foothold, to be solidified later. Distinctions blur in all of this new excitement-rush.
I’d say let their newest, freshest hero, Sarko, take all of the credit for “Western” involvement, AND the actual involvement……then….let Sarko and Cameron of England “Own” this growing mess and take the sole responsibility and the inevitable “hits”, and bear the costs, especially human, in this opaque new development. As a welcome change.
Above all, we Americans should send these young revolutionaries absolutely no cash.
Separately, I’ve seen that those Patriot missiles being fired cost over one million US Dollars….at each firing. If our government has in fact frozen some thirty billions of Qadaffi’s assets over here in America; let Qadaffi’s accounts then be tapped right now.
I see Saigon/NhaTrang/CamRanh/DaNang 1962 redux.
MJT: Personally, I’m pessimisitic about how all this will turn out in the end, so I’m with you there, but that doesn’t mean what Susanne is saying is wrong.
I have no doubt she’s reporting what she’s seeing and hearing from people accurately. Even the Fox News reporters in Banghazi tell similar tales. However, I always have doubts when I hear nothing but the “good news” side of a story. I have more then doubts when I find out the person telling the story that was works in the field of public relations
I also have some issues on HOW she tells the good news, such as this:
The tribes exist here, but they’re more of a cultural phenomenon than a political one. I don’t think anyone here imagines, or wants, the tribes stepping up to power, though this may differ somewhat between regions.
Well, yeah. I think she’s probably right that people don’t expect or want tribal politics in Libya or anywhere else in the Arab World. But when she calls it a “cultural phenomenon” (I have no idea what she even means by that) I think she’s kinda missing what impact the tribes DO have in Libya. And I think it has more to do with loyalty and tradition than with “culture”. How do you think people in other parts of Libya feel when they hear Qadafi is besieging their tribes ancestral heartland and committing all manner of atrocities, for instance? The tribes may not play a big political role but they certainly play a roll in Libyan society.
Craig: Anyway, my personal opinion is that Libyans are nicer people and are less radical than Egyptians.
Having been to both places I can say without any doubt whatsoever that this is correct.
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/defense/index.jsp?plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&newspaperUserId=27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7&plckPostId=Blog%3a27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7Post%3ab890dc38-6791-447b-b4d6-38cb5190b4d4&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest
No Option for NATO says Rome
I rather doubt reporters in Benghazi can keep from empathizing with the emotion. They are not going to be sending sour reporters on the dark side of the revolution, nor is the radical face going to advertizing itself.
I know an Egyptian Michael and Craig that seconds that….
Craig: I always have doubts when I hear nothing but the “good news” side of a story.
As well you should, but it’s harder to personally witness a bad news story in the Middle East than you might think. The region always looks worse from a distance that it does up close and in person because violence and insanity make headlines while normalcy and reasonableness don’t.
Here is another rosy report about the rebels. It sounds like it has a bit more concrete information in it than Ms Tempelhof. I hope it is true! http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/03/30/libyas-rebels-learned-stop-worrying-love-guys-qaddafi/
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/52264.html
And Gates just had some time in Egypt and Israel
Reasonableness doesn’t take back seat to violence just because of headline placement. If reasonableness ruled half as much as insanity and radicalism in MENA, we wouldn’t be spending 2 billion a day in Libya or suffering the forgotten war. And reasonableness isn’t why Iron Dome is being deployed and KSA seeks transfer of some Pakistani nukes. Nothing seems reasonable in Egypt or Syria, Iran or North Korea. I am very sure millions upon millions lean towards the reasonable, but unfortunately the whipping to death of a 14 year old girl in Bangladesh today is rather sad. Reason should not let these things happen, or am I being unreasonable?
Here is the website for the Interim Transitional National Council for those who have not found it. Can’t say that it convinces me in either direction. And since I do not read Arabic, can’t tell you if the Arabic sight says the same as the English.
http://ntclibya.org/english/
There are plenty of reports – epecially from the BBC – that do not paint as rosy a picture as Miss Tempelhoff. Videos of rebels disorganized and fighting among themselves, frustrated with malfunctioning arms and vehicles and depressed about recent setbacks. From what I saw today I don’t think these rebels have what it takes. They’re too young and too rag tag.
My prediction, this thing breaks real bad, real fast.
Here is the English website for the Interim Transitional Council. Can’t tell you that it sways me one way or another. And not reading Arabic, can’t tell you if the Arabic site says the same as the English site.
http://ntclibya.org/english/
We also will gain the ability to influence matters, including insisting that any foreign fighters present be sent home and any Al Qaeda in the country be turned over to us or killed.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/03/30/libyas-rebels-learned-stop-worrying-love-guys-qaddafi/#ixzz1I8VMGCgo
I think that an awful lot of wishful thinking. We couldn’t even retain decent people, in the Iraqi Army and routinely let slip the Taliban into Afghan forces. Time is not on our side to do this. Now maybe if we put explode-able tracking chips inside the head of every rebel fighter the problem would be solved…..
Wasn’t that exploding, trackable collars – from a Star Trek episode??? :0
“…there are radical elements amongst the rebels, to be sure, but they are a minority…”
Having Livestation multi channel running the various news networks, in English and Arabic, on a dedicated system in the corner of the office all the time, I notice that there seems to be an awful lot of medieval incantations of ‘Allāhu Akbar’ on the rebel side, repetitive behaviour that does not exactly convey the impression of enlightenment, if anything quite the opposite.
A slightly more cynical view of the rebel masses and the final outcome for Libya may well be in order.
Admitting terminal skepticism, especially about the Middle East, it seems wisest to me to wait to predict any outcome until a “settling out” phase is clearly coalescing around some organized center. The disorganization now makes me wary and suspicious that organized elements, recognizing the leadership vacuum, are simply waiting for their appropriate moment to fill it.
Templar -that would work. I remember the girl looked like a super freak. A shicksa however, Mr. Shatner…..
I was thinking more Escape from New York City http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mapn1DY4zgE
But returning to the rebels and revolution, we should be doing is translating this into Arabic;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3b56e0u0EgQ It is perhaps the most relevant episode
.
An interesting note on Roddenberry;
“In 1943 while a US Army Air Corps pilot, he flew B-17 bombers during World War II, his plane crashed on takeoff due to a mechanical failure, killing two crew members.
On 19 June 1947 he was deadheading (traveling while not on duty) on a Pan Am plane when it crashed in the Syrian desert, killing 7 of 9 crew and 7 of 26 passengers on board. He rescued the Maharani of Pheleton from the wreck. Rescue came in hours, but too late to save most of the luggage, and the victims’ possessions, from local tribesmen and villagers.
During the war he wrote a song lyric “I Wanna Go Home”, which became popular.” IMBd
“He flew eighty-nine missions for which he was awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross and the Air Medal before leaving the Army Air Forces in 1945.[3][4][5] After the military, Roddenberry worked as a commercial pilot for Pan American World Airways (Pan Am). He received a Civil Aeronautics commendation for his rescue efforts following a June 1947 crash in the Syrian desert while on a flight to Istanbul from Karachi.” Wiki
Rescue came too late to save the luggage and jewlery and likely medical help for the injured. But that was then .
Jabba the Cat: there seems to be an awful lot of medieval incantations of ‘Allāhu Akbar’ on the rebel side
Don’t get hung up on that.
A 12-year old Libyan kid said that to me when I gave him a cigarette, and anti-Islamists in Iran yell it at Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Paul S: it seems wisest to me to wait to predict any outcome until a “settling out” phase is clearly coalescing around some organized center.
Absolutely. Predicting what will happen in the Middle East is a mug’s game–and that goes double in situations like this. Best to just watch what’s happening now and leave it at that.
Oh, I forgot the collar” picture just for any trivia seekers….
http://www.startrek.com/legacy_media/images/200303/tos-046-kirk-seduces-shahna–h/320×240.jpg
http://images2.fanpop.com/images/photos/8400000/Shana-and-Kirk-star-trek-couples-8434408-700-530.jpg
Angelique Pettyjohn
Spock had a go with her in this episode. hxxp://www.startrek.com/legacy_media/images/200303/tos-074-droxine-and-spock/320×240.jpg
Then Spock turned down the T’Pring (Arlene Martel) hxxp://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OQmEa5OKyOI/SmvdhwwdPjI/AAAAAAAAQOw/bDi7hzaFlcA/s400/ArleneMartelStill07.j
Maxtrue, I remember that “We killed thousands, and still they came…” rant from that Omega Glory episode of Star Trek even after a couple of decades. Much more inspiring that William Shatner’s hamfisted interpretation of the US Constitution
Unfortunately this isn’t a static situation You have to train and arm an army fast or go in yourself. If I remember correctly, NATO and others are saying time is key and the longer Qaddafi stays in, the greater his chances for a stalemate. So we’re talking about brigades on the offense with fire power and coordinated air support beating Qaddafi. Really, how long will such a force take to organize and disinfect? We are talking about arming an area that sent hundreds to attack us in Iraq. A place where Hizb’Allah is operating. A place where there is a fatwa against Democracy. We have little leverage for billions in Egypt, how much will we have in what comes to be in Libya?
If we don’t control the make up of a Libyan Army, what it must represent to have legitimacy won’t be certain. We shouldn’t empower an illegitimate force anymore than we should recognize Qaddafi. Shooting at Qaddafi isn’t the qualification for being armed. One thing is sure, reporters haven’t been particularly right about outcomes and our officials explain how little Intel we have. I have great faith in that…..as we still fail to stand of the Afghanis. Who knows what will happen in Iraq.
It is after all a civil war unless you assume Tripoli hates Qaddafi too. I suspect he has more support than Saddam did beyond his home town. Water and oil is about all you need to buy the rest…and Qaddafi is buying his guerrilla warriors. Chavez can send some of his to train against live targets……
Which is an interesting situation as Hib’Allah may be fighting from the other side.
hamfisted is a good description
Yep, I remember that line too. The guy was one of the more compelling characters….
I was actually trying to show a media format that might be simple and non religious enough to explain the virtues of Liberal freedom to those with internet in MENA
Now you’ve got me free associating, Max: the episode titled “What Little Girls Are Made Of”, with guest star Sherry Jackson (be still my heart…) as an android, with that face—and that costume.
Couldn’t resist, Michael. Blame Max.
Now, back to the grimness. As for the impulse to predict the future, I swear, sometimes I’m convinced it’s pathological.
“Predicting what will happen in the Middle East is a mug’s game–and that goes double in situations like this. Best to just watch what’s happening now and leave it at that.”
With all due respect, MJT, I couldn’t disagree more. The middle east isn’t nearly as crazy or exotic as it is described. A lot of what happens in the middle east can be modeled and projected by data driven analysis. Granted the standard deviations are larger and the distribution patterns are unusual [wouldn't count on least means squares.]
To take Iraq . . . MJT, as you know, some of my friends and I tracked the ISF with enormous granular detail [to the division, brigade, battalion, company, often assembling detailed records of ISF officers and their histories.] A lot that happened in Iraq was predictable. In fact, much of what happened in Iraq was what I had thought likely in March, 2003 [aside from the fact that Rusmfeld and Cheney would so impede the development of the ISF to fight and win their war.] And I am not that smart.
The sharp improvement in the ISF in 2006 and its decisive impact on the ground was easily predictable [based on ITDC, MoI equivalent and MNSTC-I inputs]. The flows of the ISF were predictable. Little in Iraq proceeded differently from what ISF flows predicted.
When I hear people now say that Iraq surprised them . . . I wonder, what drugs were they on.
The Green movement in Iran was predictable. The only surprise in Iran is that the Greens haven’t decisively won yet. But I would bet that success for the greens is likely in the near future. The fact that China has reduced oil imports from Iran by more than 40% and that India and Russia increasingly diss the Khamenei regime is proof that the world doesn’t think the regime survives.
Regarding the Arab people rising up for their freedom, this too was predictable, although possibly taking slightly longer than some thought likely. My belief in early 2003 was that Iraq would likely have its first full 4 or 5 year term parliament [Iraq ultimately chose 4 year term parliaments in its constitution] 2006-2010. And that the transformational event in the middle east would be the 2nd major parliamentary election around 2010 and freedom in Iran. I did think Iran would be one of the first dictatorships to fall, and am surprised that Tunisia and Egypt have moved to freedom and democracy first. But in general, what part of the Arab spring is surprising? Didn’t you think in 2008 that the next US president would likely see an Arab spring under their watch? How could it not happen?
Who is surprised that Al Jazeera is supporting the Arab spring? Al Jazeera has deep sectarian roots [although that has been gradually getting better since 2005] and naturally roots for freedom and democracy among “true” Arabs [of the Sunni kind.]
Now if Arabs start openly supporting freedom in Bahrain . . . that would be surprising, and then MJT . . . you would have a point. But so far the middle east hasn’t been that unpredictable.
Meant to tell you this earlier; Lebanese have hated Qaddafi since the 1978 disappearance of Musa Sadr, may peace be upon him. That Lebanon would draft the UN resolution against Qaddafi and that Libyan rebels would wave Lebanese flags should have surprised no one. Nor should the fact that KSA is taking advantage of the current situation to stab Qaddafi.
Sorry for the extended rant.
Predicting political outcomes strikes me as akin to predicting the weather. No meteorologist who wants to keep his job will stake his career on a long range forecast; prevailing factors emerge and recede frequently, and often unexpectedly.
anan,
Meant to tell you this earlier; Lebanese have hated Qaddafi since the 1978 disappearance of Musa Sadr, may peace be upon him.
After all that talking about objective data-driven analysis, you go and say something like that? You realize Musa Sadr is/was an Iranian mullah, and that he founded Amal which is a Shia militia, right? And that he vanished during a civil war in which Amal was a participant? I think it’s a bit of a stretch to say “Lebanese” have hated Qadafi since 1978 due to his disappearance. Especially considering so many Libyan jihadis were in Lebanon at the time (as they always seem to be present when there’s a jihad waiting to be fought) fighting for who knows who. Does your data driven analysis tell you that not only does HA speak for all of Lebanon now, but they did then as well?
…and am surprised that Tunisia and Egypt have moved to freedom and democracy first.
They have? What data are you basing that conclusion on?
Crappy wiki link on Lebanon during that time period:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_Civil_War
These forces enabled the PLO / Fatah (Fatah constituted 80% of the membership of Fatah and Fatah guerrillas controlled most PLO institutions now) to transform the Western Part of Beirut into its stronghold. The PLO had taken over the heat of Sidon and Tyre in the early 1970s, it controlled great swath of south Lebanon, in which the indigenous Shiite population had to suffer the humiliation of passing though PLO checkpoints and now they had worked their way by force into Beirut. The PLO did this with the assistance of so-called volunteers from Libya and Algeria shipped in through the ports it controlled, as well as a number of Sunni Lebanese groups who had been trained and armed by PLO/ Fatah and encouraged to declare themselves as separate militias. However as Rex Brynen makes clear in his publication on the PLO, these militias were nothing more than “shop-fronts” or in Arabic “Dakakin” for Fatah, armed gangs with no ideological foundation and no organic reason for their existence save the fact their individual members were put on PLO/ Fatah payroll.
anan: The middle east isn’t nearly as crazy or exotic as it is described.
Tell us more about that?
“so far the middle east hasn’t been that unpredictable”
What is predictable as an eastern sunrise is that anand will give his enthusiastic, wholehearted support to anyone with murder in their heart for the Jews.
Craig #13…
As a matter of fact, if you watch PBS episode on Cairo revolution, you will find video of the leftists taking cyber training from organizations like Democracy Now and various US and European organizations on how to protest peacefully.
While I am not fond of the left leaning variety in the US for reasons of government, I am not adverse to their presence in this situation. Egypt, after all, has been socialist in leaning for 60 years. Most importantly, socialists are better than Salafis, hands down. Socialists, I can argue with. Salafis would rather cut off heads.
In the case of the Democracy now training, I recall distinctly the instructor talking about controlling the crowd and insuring that no one is destroying property or throwing rocks (at least, not to be the first to resort to violence and to try to remain non-violent even in the face of extreme provocation). As the instructor noted, if the protesters became violent (first), that would person would become “the star” of the protest and be what is shown on the media over and over again. The purpose of the protest would be lost.
They also read MLK Jr, Ghandi, etc for inspiration.
Now, this isn’t just some leftist instructions, these are good instructions for any protest (even the tea party, etc).
Basically, they taught them how to protest like members of a civil society.
Its a re-election war for Sarkozy. He can’t move left with le Pen surging. Sarkozy has dissed Obama. Things will get very interesting in Libya. GBUSA
Kat-Mo: Basically, they taught them how to protest like members of a civil society.
If by that, you mean they were trained to be deceptive when it comes to the role of the Muslim Brotherhood, their true feelings about the West in general and their animosity towards the US in particular, to over-state their aspirations for secular democracy and liberal inclusive government, to rhetorically champion western favorites such as women’s rights when they actually stand in opposition on such issues, to make a big production of religious tolerance (remember the Copts protecting the Muslims as they prayed, and vice versa?) when they aren’t actually at all interested in being tolerant, and to avoid any mention of Israel at all even though that’s like the number one hot-button issue for all Egyptians, then yeah. They protested just like members of a civil society
This is why al-Bama doesn’t care who the Libyan rebels are:
http://gatewaypundit.rightnetwork.com/2011/03/shocking-discovery-the-day-after-9-11-van-jones-leads-rally-where-they-cheer-american-killers-video/
There is something weirdly disturbing in all the reporting coming out of eastern Libya. There are scenes of civilians riding around in pick-ups and sedans with guns mounted and everyone waving an AK, looking warlike for the foreign cameramen, scuffling around on the ground, aiming at imaginary Qaddafi troops, like a bunch of Keystone cops. This is a posturing rabble, emanating absolutely no sense of organization or leadership The desert is huge; the logistical problems are staggering. The nice lady reporter in Benghazi is enjoying her office, and free car, driver, translator and meals, talking to a lot of nice nervous people. And reporters talking about being embedded! Its kinda neat: being a “war reporter” without having to worry about getting hurt other than by a truckload of warriors shouting ” “Allabu Akbar”. Nobody knows who’s on first, and everybody is nodding their head and saying. “we’ll just have to wait and see how it works out”. Keen analysis!
I am totally unqualified in military matters, but the only reason I can see to believe that the “rebels” have any chance of “victory” is that Qaddafi’s army is evidently too weak, ill-commanded and unwilling to kill anybody. Why do I have the feeling that none of the guys on the neighborhood war vehicles have any college education or disposition to Western democracy that Ms. Templehof finds in the big B?
So Libya rids itself of a tyrant and gains – Chaos and misery – longterm. This is something we couldn’t figure out ahead of time?
PS, Kat:
Most importantly, socialists are better than Salafis, hands down. Socialists, I can argue with. Salafis would rather cut off heads.
I disagree. Salafis are not going to screw up my country. They don’t have the power to do that. Socialists already are screwing up my country, and if they have their way I won’t even live in a country I’m able to recognize anymore in another decade or two. And besides, you make it sound like it’s an either/or choice. Am I just imagining this unholy alliance between leftists and islamists, then?
LIBYA, THE FRENCH CONNECTION AND THE SPECTER OF VIETNAM
If there’s any lesson that this country should have learned from the French it’s this: DON’T FOLLOW THEM INTO WAR. The last time we did we got the long, losing military Odyssey called Vietnam and spent years at enormous cost in lives and treasure trying to clean up their mess. And here we go again with history repeating itself in a different part of the world with the French spearheading a war* against the despot of a former European colony and the US blindly following suit…….
Click my name to continue reading this widely linked piece on my top townhall.com blog.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2062337,00.html
Keep in mind this is from a very sympathetic media source. One could write this in much harsher terms.
Of course come election time, I don’t see how Obama will have the results needed to show much accomplishment. That is something key the Times left out.
http://debka.com/article/20811/
Is it true? Or is it just Debka?
Do we want it to be true? Or would we rather it wasn’t?
Michael:
I have been in this movie before — Kosovo 1999. We heard stories about “mass graves” that were never found, 100,000+ dead (the UN put the number at about 3500 missing at the end of the conflict for all ethnic groups in Kosovo) and how wonderful and peace loving the people were except that the KLA leadership consisted of drug dealers and human traffickers with a flicker of AQ types mixed in for flavor. When it was all over the KLA launched a campaign of ethnic cleansing not only of Serbs but non Albanian Muslims and Roma. A couple weeks into the occupation I was sitting in a Pentagon meeting with the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs discussing why the Albanians were ethnically cleansing Roma. A cheerful young lady enthusiastically piped up and said the Roma had supported Milosevic and this was probably payback. I piped up an explained to the ASD that the while it is true the Roma were pro-Serb, they had good reason. During the WWII the Albanians of the SS Skandergeg Division rounded up the Roma for the Nazis and send them to extermination camps. The ASD being of Jewish ancestry said “got it.” The young lady was none too pleased. We are still in Kosovo supporting a corrupt political system bent on finishing the ethnic cleansing job against non-Albanians in pursuit a pure Albanian state.
Now that we have engaged in Libya I don’t see any way out of this mess other then removing Qaddafi. If we failed to defeat Milosevic he would merely laugh at us. Failure to remove Qaddafi will leave a wounded animal who will not hesitate to send terrorist to attack the West.
“We are talking about arming an area that sent hundreds to attack us in Iraq.”
One question I have is that when people talk about arming the rebels, what exactly does that mean? What weaponry do the rebels have the ability to use without training, and what would they need to challenge Qaddafi? It’s not like Qaddafi’s armies are using the latest and greatest military weapons.
I’d also ask whether arming the rebels would help. They don’t seem to be anything more than a ragtag gang. Can they manage their own logistics? Can they dislodge a determined opponent from an urban area (let alone without butchering civilians)?
And when Quaddafi wins, and he will at this rate, and the blood starts to really run in the streets what then?
Oh sure the rebels are happy with the air strikes now but however much O denies it, we have taken on a responsibility and he is closing the door to what it may take to live up to it. I have a very bad feeling about this.
Matt P 53.
Maybe “arming the Rebels” means arming them with a Marine Expeditionary Force.
The Jihadists have always been a minority among dissenters but they are the ones with radical backings and the fervor for power.
Craig 45 and 48
First, Egyptian socialists aren’t trying to ruin your country, they just want a chance to ruin their own
At least you have had the freedom to argue with the socialists in your country all your life. Can’t help the rest of the country has been slow to wake up and participate or that you (and the rest of us) have been apparently extremely bad at convincing people of he concerns until recently.
Second, I almost didn’t respond to post #45 accept that I refuse to allow the “every Muslim is a secret Salafi Islamist waiting to destroy the US” meme to pass uncontested.
They learned to protest like we do in a civil society. As in, they learned about organization, developing a message and using non-violent techniques to confront a powerful armed force, gaining the moral upper hand.
You know when we lose the war of ideas to the AQ SOBs? It is when we throw the rest of the Muslims, even those who detest the Salafis and have western ideas, to AQ. Because, of course, all Muslims are just evil people practicing deception so they can wiggle their way into our nation and politics to destroy us from within.
This war of ideology is primarily a war within Islam for the temporal and eternal souls of Muslims. We are the side show, the scape goat for their own failures. We must defend ourselves, but the answer cannot be all war all the time. we must have other strategies to defeat the Salafi AQ ideology (and the Iranian version). That includes using whatever leverage and assets we can obtain. That would include empowering any Muslim voices that are not the Salafi and returning the war of ideas from where it was born. That includes making alliances with the lesser evil (MB).
The relegation of all Muslims into the AQ camp means they obtain their primary objective. The primary objective is not to destroy the US and the west, that is unobtainable in reality (unless they take over Pakistan and get the nukes). the primary objective is to consolidate the Muslim Umma. They believe that is how they will then take over the rest of the world. I believe that is unobtainable as well, but do not intend to give them anything more than we have to.
We are not going to win every battle. We are not going to go unscathed. We will have casualties. Fortunately, so will they. We will win in the end because what we have to offer is freedom. What the Salafis have to offer is more oppression.
I am not afraid of them, I am not afraid that we will lose. I only wait for the end of the war and their relegation to “dustbin of history” with the rest of the tyrants and oppressors.
I understand your fear and anger, but it does not create a strategy that is any more than “kill them all and let God sort them out”. I reject that categorically because that is the the same principle under which the AQ Salafis operate, why they feel free to kill Muslims and non-Muslims alike.
Screw that.
Barry: Is it true? Or is it just Debka?
Why even bother to look at it? Debka is worse than Cairo’s paranoid coffeehouse rumor mill.
Kat-Mo: This war of ideology is primarily a war within Islam for the temporal and eternal souls of Muslims. We are the side show, the scape goat for their own failures. We must defend ourselves, but the answer cannot be all war all the time. we must have other strategies to defeat the Salafi AQ ideology (and the Iranian version). That includes using whatever leverage and assets we can obtain. That would include empowering any Muslim voices that are not the Salafi and returning the war of ideas from where it was born. That includes making alliances with the lesser evil (MB).
I’m with you up until that last sentence. Every Sunni terrorist group in the world is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. And you should remember that Hamas is its Palestinian branch.
We should be on the sides of the liberals, democrats, and genuine moderates against secular dictators and faith-based would-be dictators alike.
You’re right. I don’t want to believe it either.
Claire Berlinski just said very nice things about our land lord !!!!
Don’t panic citizens! The CIA are deploying their top men to Libya to find out who the rebels are! One would have thought we’d have acquired this information BEFORE we started dropping bombs and slaughtering people on their behalf. But who are we to question a sitting President during a time of war? Wouldn’t be patriotic…
Bugs
But who are we to question a sitting President during a time of war? Wouldn’t be patriotic…
***************************
HAHAHAHA, you know. I’ve heard that before, somewhere.
I have problems with the lady.
1)Also in Lebanon, or Israel, a reporter can try and get a free meal, free office, free translator, free car, free you name it, some do very well in that kind of reporting. A reporter may be easily conditioned in such way. One must be very carefull about such conditioning. BASICALLY THERE IS NO FREE MEAL .2) The number of people that Gadaffi was going to kill, could have killed, planned to kill, may have killed according to the lady is too high, much too high. 3) In a country not your own, in a culture not your own, etc any body who speak your language and is nice to you seems to be a nice person, all the 9/11 people were like that.4) The gentelmen in the office speaking pefect english to the lady are not the same people driving the pickups with AK sticking out of the windows. Or it may be a Dr J and Mister H. situation. In every revolution or civil war you will find nice people in offices and beastly killer in the fields or the streets. Some time these are the very same people. Lebanon and Iraq are good examples of that. These people are often also perfect liers. In Libya that war can last for ever, ask the Italian about their never ending war there. All in all in Egypt somebody is running the show, i.e. after the big talk about Israel stealing Egypt gas see the speed by which the gas was connected back, some things like money and petroleum you dont fool with no matter what the mob in street is saying.
Rani: One must be very carefull about such conditioning. BASICALLY THERE IS NO FREE MEAL
Arabs give me free food and assistance all the time, including Arabs who hate me. Their culture requires them to do this. It is not part of some sinister plot.
59 MJT
Let me be clear on the MB situ. I am not saying that we just hand them any more power than they can reasonably achieve. I believe you know that the Salafi AQ founders had a falling out with the MB in Egypt. There is a split in their ideologies. a minute one, but one that can be exploited.
Right now, the MB wants to play politics in Egypt. Good for us. They will have to do the things that all politicians do and that is compromise to survive. Right now I am reading various reports that indicate that that compromise will come sooner rather than later because they suffer from the same “demographic gift” as the rest of Egypt.
A huge portion of their group are young and another are female. They want their say in the MB. If they don’t get it, they might leave or at least form a major opposition within the MB ranks forcing them to move towards the “liberal” (at least, the Egyptian version) position. Lots of objections about the MB leadership telling their members they can only join the MB Freedom and Justice party.
Most importantly, when the MB are part of the government of state, they will be equal holders in the “something to lose”. That gives us leverage. Not only on the MB, but the back door to Hamas, etc. It allows us to create a narrative that is completely opposite of the Salafi ideology and forces the MB to compete or run within our narrative.
I realize that any sort of formal association with the MB is extremely unpopular, but Uncle Joe Stalin wasn’t exactly a gold star pick. You know the drill, war and politics make for strange bed fellows.
So we talk to the MB. You know what they want? Please forgive Egypt’s debts or some part of it, invest in Egypt, provide economic aid, etc, etc, etc. From that, we get the some of the same things that we got from Mubarek. Maybe better since the Islamists are going to be duking it out between themselves pretty soon. the MB may even help put another boot in the AQ face when they start setting up the Egyptian Salafi the same way that Mubarek did. Better the MB than the Salafi is going to become part of their dialogue if the Salafis continue their activities in Egypt. Of course, that will put the MB even further down on the Salafi AQ D list and further in our pocket.
Just wait until they have their free press situated, the MB are the major block of government and the media stops reporting attacks on Egyptian infrastructure (gas lines to Israel, an oil well down in the south yesterday) as if it was conducted by some anonymous, invisible, inexplicable bogeyman, but instead is perpetrated by Islamic (Salafi?) terrorists. The denouncements and knots the MB will have to tie themselves into will be a great joy to behold. See, every cloud has it’s silver lining.
However, I sincerely and completely agree with you. We need to empower the liberal Muslim voices. We need to give them the tools. Give them a voice. Make sure the MB only get what little they can and not more because the liberals are ill organized.
We are doing that in many ways. The American University in Cairo is providing daily (sometimes three times a day) seminars on organizing for democratic elections, presenters from former eastern block countries talking about their own experiences, etc. These things are “sold out”.
Of course, these young people see themselves as the next generation tearing down the Iron Curtain. that is what gives me great hope. Whatever people say about the “Muslims” in Egypt, the young people have a distinctly western leaning point of reference. They do not see themselves as the great army of Mohammed coming out of the desert to consolidate the Arabs. They see themselves as the east and west Germans taking the symbolic wall of oppression down with ropes, sledge hammers and chisels.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qw4x-bH6-YA
What I love about this is that, if Zawahiri is still alive, he is likely having to choke down his falafel and chai tea over the Cairo Revoluion lump stuck in his craw. He tried to overthrow the Egyptian government with violence. A bunch of kids on twitter and facebook, carrying signs that said “game over”, “freedom”, “democracy” and “KFC, official sponsor of Egyptian Revolution” did it 18 days by doing their best rendition of MLK JR. Those kids included MB youth, but they were only a small, but important part. The young people had the support of a lot of people around the world unlike the Salafi nihilists.
I picture in my mind a bunch of those AQ SOB’s sitting around scratching their scraggly beards trying to figure out how THEY missed it. The young inspired others to follow suit and rise up where the Salafi AQ failed. So, the AQ become Johnny Come Lately and try to claim the victory as their own. Not much different than the Iranian regime and it got the same response from the revolutionaries.
Anyway, enough on that. Back to empowering the liberals. I wrote to Mahmoud Salem, Sandmonkey, that the Egyptian liberals need their own PJ media. Some place where the liberals can write, refine their ideas, perpetuate the message and give names and faces to the people leading the way instead of blogs that have to be hunted down. Some place where other groups and campaigns can link.
The socialists have something called T Squared, but it is essentially a leftist news aggregation site with little original content. The MB have their site, but, honestly, not that sophisticated. The Liberals need something better. They have so many who want to do something. This would give them another way.
Is there some way to get this together? Who needs to talk to whom? Or, who? At least, give them some advice on the matter. From everything I’ve been reading on twitter and checking out people’s bios, there is a huge techie representation among the Liberals (See, Microsoft is good for something other than making our heads explode and Bill Gates rich) so it can’t be a great stretch to achieve.
Other strategies. Embrace the moment.
Okay…sorry I ran on. Let me suck up here and say that I have always appreciated your work. Thank you for bringing us somebody from inside Libya.
Literate muslims are dangerous.
Most terrorsts are literate muslims, who read the Quaran for themselves
and learned the truth: that the Mohammed was an al-Qaida.
Rani:
The “lady” is there. You are not. Or anyway, you don’t seem to be, just shooting from the hip like you are, like a “man.” Respect the “lady” please. She’s risking her life to spread the news of what’s going on.
Do you work at NCTC? Your comments on the Egytian Muslim Brothehood sound like the prep for the DNI.
Libya has plenty of oil and only 6 million people. It will be fine. The problem will be Egypt with no resources to speak of and 80 million people. The rebels will need external help and the West is hesitant beyond air strikes. Mmm, do the math. Egyptian help will finish off Gaddafi and the Egyptians will be paid nicely with oil in return. That is if they don’t just overstay their welcome and take over eastern Libya. Seriously, why wouldn’t they? who can stop them? who would object? The location of the border war arbitrary anyway, drawn with a ruler made in Britain or France.
Onslo: Literate muslims are dangerous.
Don’t make me ban you.
I know what I know because I read the Egyptian and Arab papers. I read the MB websites, I read their face book and twitter posts (the liberals, socialists and MB). I do not need some political entity to tell me what I should think.
I am telling you the information that I gleaned from my own research. You do not have to accept that information. I researched that information because I wanted to know what was happening, who was in play and what it would mean to our greater effort to smash AQ and the Salafi ideology.
In order to win this war of ideology, we need information. The lack of information leads to bad decisions in war. Too many bad decisions, you lose. That is a fact of war you cannot escape.
If the only answer to the situation is to sit on the sidelines and bite our nails about “the coming caliphate”, I reject it.
Matt P,
One question I have is that when people talk about arming the rebels, what exactly does that mean? What weaponry do the rebels have the ability to use without training, and what would they need to challenge Qaddafi?
I don’t know what advocates of arming the rebels have in mind, but the only weapon systems I can think of that might help are ATGMs. That’s “Anti-Tank Guided Missiles”. It takes a lot of training to use them well, but it doesn’t take much training to use them somewhat effectively since the best of them are fire-and-forget and only require a target lock. Unfortunately, they are also one of the weapons systems we’d least like terrorists to get ahold of. Which is a problem.
I’d also ask whether arming the rebels would help. They don’t seem to be anything more than a ragtag gang. Can they manage their own logistics? Can they dislodge a determined opponent from an urban area (let alone without butchering civilians)?
I don’t think it would help, myself. They could arguably make do without training – insurgents in other countries have – but what is killing them IMO is lack of leadership in the field. The political leadership in Benghazi seems to have its act together but it seems like the guys doing the fighting are running around in small bands doing their own thing. That’s not a good game plan when going up against military forces.
spindok,
Maybe “arming the Rebels” means arming them with a Marine Expeditionary Force.
I’m opposed to that. I’d be opposed even if there wasn’t a long history of terrorist activity in Eastern Libya. They would just become the defacto (if not actual) occupation force post-Qadafi. And that result is sure to make it all about US puppets vs terrorist resistance fighters.
Kat-Mo @57, it looks to me like you are just taking the opportunity to use my comments to promote some personal agenda and publish your talking points in a “debate” format. This, for instance:
Second, I almost didn’t respond to post #45 accept that I refuse to allow the “every Muslim is a secret Salafi Islamist waiting to destroy the US” meme to pass uncontested
That’s insulting. It’s not made in reply to anything I said here or anything I said elsewhere and it’s not even close to what I believe. I’m being nicer to you about it than I normally would be, because at some point in the distant past it seems to me you were a friend of Sandmonkey’s so I’m cutting you some slack.
If you’d like to have an actual discussion about Egypt, maybe you could try replying to my actual opinions as I express them, instead of just projecting all your own biases onto me so you can editorialize.
Joe @70,
The location of the border war arbitrary anyway, drawn with a ruler made in Britain or France.
Yes, that’s true that the specific border was drawn arbitrarily but Egypt is not a young nation, and it has never included Cyrenaica. Cyrenaica is also not young, by the way.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creta_et_Cyrenaica
In fact, western Egypt is actually part of Cyrenaica. The inhabitants are not and never have been Egyptians. The border was arbitrarily drawn too far west.
Thanks, Michael, for posting this, and for your insightful analysis. The emotions she describes on the part of the Lybian rebels are probably real, though not necessarily a predictor of future relationships. Too frequently, the passage of time changes feelings of grattitude to feelings of resentment.
Craig .74 How do you get off accusing that woman of doing the exact same thing you did to me the day before I went out and shot the Egyptian riots on ‘Angry Friday’, Jan.28?
Your comments were the defamatory trollings of a humorless child and I am pleased to see you taking some of your own medicine.
By the way, you still own me $50 for betting I couldn’t find Egypt on a map when I was actually IN Egypt.
As for the unprofessional speculation about whether I was a liar and then accusing me of pimping my work when I showed it only to prove you were a straight up liar about me being in Egypt I can happily rebut in public that you are a troll for someone who actually does pimp his work via holding out a tin cup.
You, your buddy maxtrue and your fuhrer own me an apology but it won’t happen cuz you’re a hypocrite, jealous of people who go out and do things you wish you did. I have no confidence this will appear but writing it smells like victory.
Some followup in regards to Egypt and Libya:
Indigenous inhabitants of Cyrenaica:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meshwesh
Early records of the Meshwesh date back to the 18th dynasty of Ancient Egypt from the reign of Amenhotep III. During the 19th and 20th Dynasties of Egypt (ca 1295 – 1075 BC), the Meshwesh were in almost constant conflict with the Egyptian state.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libu
Their occupation of ancient Libya is first attested in ancient Egyptian texts from the New Kingdom, especially from the Ramesside Period. The earliest occurrence is in a Ramses II inscription.[1] There were no vowels in the Egyptian script. The name Libu is written as LBW or RBW in Egyptian hieroglyphs.
This name Libu was taken over by the Greeks of Cyrenaica, who co-existed with them. Geographically, the name of this tribe was adopted by the Greeks for “Cyrenaica” as well as for northwestern Africa in general.
What they are saying there is that all of North Africa (minus Egypt) was called “Libya” by the Ancient Greeks, based on the name inhabitants of Cyrenaica gave themselves (Libu). Which means that modern Cyrenaica (Eastern Libya) is the very origin of the terms “Libya” and “Libyans”.
Due to linking limitations, I’m just copy/pasting from the wiki article on the Siwa Oasis which is on the Egyptian side of the border:
The Siwa Oasis (Arabic: واحة سيوة Wāḥat Sīwah, Siwi: Isiwan) is an oasis in Egypt, located between the Qattara Depression and the Egyptian Sand Sea in the Libyan Desert, nearly 50 km (30 mi) east of the Libyan border, and 560 km (348 mi) from Cairo.[1][2][3] About 80 km (50 mi) in length and 20 km (12 mi) wide,[1] Siwa Oasis is one of Egypt’s isolated settlements, with 23,000 people, mostly ethnic Berbers[1] who speak a distinct language of the Berber family known as Siwi. Its fame lies primarily in its ancient role as the home to an oracle of Amon, the ruins of which are a popular tourist attraction which gave the oasis its ancient name Ammonium. Historically, it is part of Ancient Libya.
Sorry for all the information overload but I think Victor and Anand started making noises about how Egypt should just occupy eastern and central Libya (and abscond with all the oil, since that’s apparently in US interests) on day one and I never really addressed it properly. To allow Egypt to cause an ancient people to cease to exist in their own nation and under their own rule would be a reversal of everything that the UN has stood for these last 60 years. That’s the kind of shit the UN was founded to prevent.
Craig, you are correct, I did assign to your comment an incorrect interpretation and I give you my apologies. Unfortunately, reading through the comments here nearly makes my head explode at times and I did a general response instead of directly to your post which I had referenced.
As I wrote, the MB are not the perfect allies nor the ones we should be relying on solely in Egypt. They are exactly as you suggest. The liberals are quite sure that the leadership, at least, are dissimulating. However, the MB elders were not the ones that participated in the long course of the revolution or the ones that allied with the leftists and liberal.
It was the MB Youth. Who recently held a meeting demanding that the MB Shura become more proportionate in representation to their membership (a greater percentage to the youth and a smaller, but currently non existent, percentage to the women). It does not mean they are all die hard liberals now. It just means that it gives us and the liberals in Egypt something to work with.
I do not believe we help the liberal position in Egypt by basically denying their existence or emphatically stating they are powerless.
If I must provide credentials, I met Sandmonkey on ITM while several of us were having a long comment war with what we referred to as the leftist “euroweenies”, Riverbend and her cadre of DU cohorts. He came over to my blog and left a comment. I posted his comment and something else he wrote then suggested that he should get his own blog which he was kicking around, but concerned about his security situation.
I am not claiming to have started Sandmonkey blogging. He did that on his own, but that is the reason I am on his side bar as The Legendary Kat. It is Mahmoud Salem and others that I have had the pleasure to “meet” on the internet that gives me hope about Egypt.
I would add to the other gentleman(?) that accusing me of being a DNI operative because you do not agree with my opinions was pretty amusing. A sad way to try to make someone’s ideas illegitimate, but still amusing.
Now, pardon me, but I have to get back to having a discussion with an Egyptian leftist who posted an Alex Jones video (of all people) in support of the idea that the US is currently funding and “ruling” al Qaeda on twitter. Conspiracy theories abound. The information war is never ending.
I’ll leave you all to re-affirm your own opinions.
Kat-Mo: If the only answer to the situation is to sit on the sidelines and bite our nails about “the coming caliphate”, I reject it.
I completely agree. There is no “coming caliphate” anyway.
And most people who use the word “caliphate” don’t even know what it means.
Craig .74 How do you get off accusing that woman of doing the exact same thing you did to me the day before I went out and shot the Egyptian riots on ‘Angry Friday’, Jan.28?
James May, it’s been a while but as I recall you said a bunch of stuff about Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Iran that demonstrably false and that anyone who knew anything at all about the history of the region would have known was false. I pointed out some of your mistakes. I understand why you’re upset, since the only reason you came in here was to brag about how much you were doing for the people of Egypt and it must kinda suck when people think you’re a fool. But it’s hardly related to my interactions with Kat, now, is it?
Your comments were the defamatory trollings of a humorless child and I am pleased to see you taking some of your own medicine.
Dude, you’re a Code Pink retard. You forgot? You’re in no position to be making these accusations against others. Code Pink operatives are the most abusive, dishonest, aggressive and just plain obnoxious people to ever curse the internet with their presence.
By the way, you still own me $50 for betting I couldn’t find Egypt on a map when I was actually IN Egypt.
Actually, I bet you couldn’t find Egypt on a map even after somebody pointed it out to you. Being in Egypt doesn’t constitute evidence that you could. I could have my cat shipped to Egypt, and I’m pretty sure he couldn’t find Egypt on a map either unless I put his paw on it.
As for the unprofessional speculation about whether I was a liar…
I never called you a liar. I called you an idiot.
James May: You, your buddy maxtrue and your fuhrer own me an apology but it won’t happen cuz you’re a hypocrite, jealous of people who go out and do things you wish you did. I have no confidence this will appear but writing it smells like victory.
Oh, your comment appeared, but you’re banned now, partly for calling me a Nazi for no reason, but also for being an asshole in general.
49. ApolloSpeaks (looks like you put the same post on each thread)
so my idem response:
In Viet Nam, we didn’t dragg the US into that war, in the contrary that were the US who subsidied us to make that war against the “Communists” there, you know the Viets… American warfare advisors were already in Saigon.
France was broke after WW2, with no organized army anymore, how could we have afforded a new war, mainly fought with the foreign legion (with 60% of foreigners then, lots were former Wehrmacht’s) !
People in France didn’t care of such a far away colony (Algeria war that was already starting had much more of our concern), that’s why after Dien Dien Phu defeat, were the Viet forces were 10 times more numerous, we gave up ! and America took the relay !
The land lord rightly said. “Arabs give me free food and assistance all the time, including Arabs who hate me. Their culture requires them to do this. It is not part of some sinister plot”. Yes, it is not a sinister plot. If I impied so I am sorry.
The lady did not get only food which we all are expected to share ! to share food and water and to help a person in need is the true Jihad. She got much more than that, much more. Even so it is not a sinister plot not at all. They have an idea to sell and if she is a friend she is expected to act as one. No body is pulling a sinister plot on the lady or on us. Still, if she was helped by them that much she is expected to respond positively to their world picture. Very few people are sinister. I have been invited to eat with arabs totally strange to me or was offered very generous help in several other ways but it is always registered by both sides. It is a complicated story. This morning I was invited to sit down on the earth and share the mid-day light meal with some local workers. I know them for some time. We are kind of friends. I went back home got three sardin cans a large jar of water, disposable cups and several soft drink bottles and joined them. If you get this invitation with complete stangers and join them it is registered. You are expected to do the same even after several years in far away places, or respond in some way, help their kid in school or something. Several weeks ago my trash can was stolen. As I was looking for it I looked up at the next house and an Arab worker was painting the roof, I called and asked him if he saw the can, he called loudly that he did not know any thing at all, which I know was a lie, and he knew I know, so he pointed with his finger that only I could see, he was doing a good deed, helping me, some could even say a very small Jihad fi tariq Allah. I went there and found it near a group of arab workers ( who must have heard me asking him) I said hello, good morning and asked them politely if they finished using the can, they said yes. I took it home, then I went to the gentelmen who pointed ( he knew exactly what happened) took a small swiss army knife that I carry and gave it to him saying: here is a present for your kid, I dont think he is even married. But we are now even.
The people who gave the lady an office, a car, a translators etc. naturally expect more than a small swiss army knife.
Kat,
First off, thanks for the apology
Unfortunately, reading through the comments here nearly makes my head explode at times and I did a general response instead of directly to your post which I had referenced.
This blog has the opposite effect on me, which is why it’s the only blog I’m still active on. I used to read a lot of Arab and Iranian blogs, for the same reasons you say you did, but I got tired of being the “neocon”, the “jew”, the “nazi”, the “fascist”, the “warmonger”, and so on. Being the person who rails against the insanity that permeates Arab blogs is not a role I want to play, anymore. And I suspect you know exactly what I’m talking about. Only it seems to be that rather than abandoning the cause as I have, you’ve adopted some of the positions of your former adversaries out of expediency. I suppose that’s a valid option, so I won’t criticize you for it. However, you’re not the only one who was on all the blogs back then. The only reason I never encountered you on Iraq the Model is because it was so rah-rah neocon that I got ridiculed by every Arab I knew (Muslim and non-Muslim both) every time I even mentioned it. Now it seems you feel you’re more closely aligned the politics of Arabs and that I’m dead set against them. Makes no sense to me, but then I’m not a neocon so maybe I’m just incapable of getting it
It is Mahmoud Salem and others that I have had the pleasure to “meet” on the internet that gives me hope about Egypt.
Yeah, I felt that way too about Egypt when I first started reading his blog, and Big Pharoah’s. After the Muslim Brotherhood hijacked the Kefaya protests in 2005 my optimism about Egypt started to slip. Especially combined with the amount of abuse that was being heaped Sandmonkey and Big Pharaoh by their fellow Egyptians and the western left both. I did my best to be supportive of the 2011 revolution but I’m pretty much done with that now after the way the revolutionaries reacted to the Lara Logan incident. And any respect I had for self-professed Egyptian liberals went down the tubes when Mona Eltahawy jumped the shark and sold her soul to the hard left just so that she could get some US support against Mubarak. Sandmonkey is the only one in that whole crew who is worth a damn in my opinion. The rest of them can go screw themselves as far as I’m concerned.
hmmm Craig
“Libyan Warrior( The King Of Al-Andalaus)” might mean sumthin fer ya !
I agree with most of what you said. Though now that we are in the ship, we must finish the job, as Kadhafi will be a hell for us in any case for good resaons !
Michael J Totten
You are an excellent journalist. I have been reading you for what, near a decade. Can’t wait to download your book when it comes out on kindle.
Cmon dude. Banning is harsh because I need to hear what James May has to say. I am not on the ground doing what you do.
Peace love out
Spin
I think Tdiinva, who commented a ways back, was worth paying attention to.
I have heard from several sources I consider reliable that the events in Yugoslavia-bosnia-Albania were not presented to the public accurately. I remember in particular, Christiane Amanpour – whose hubby was assistant secretary of state to Madeline Albright – reporting that Serbian terrorists had bombed a market place in a village called Markale. Years later, a real investigation pointed to Muslim extremists, not Serbians as the bombers. My rule of thumb is – when the media makes a big deal about supposed genocide, a healthy dose of skepticism is in order. The real genocides occur beyond the scrutiny of the media, and usually the media is complicit in downplaying the slaughter until it is mostly completed. Exhibits: the Holocaust, Turkish slaughter of the Armenians and Assyrians, Cambodia, Rwanda, Congo …
I think Craig should go with Mike on one of his hotspot adventures. They could do co-reporting upon their return.
Jesus May, you did what? Help US authorities find the criminals who attacked Logan? Protest when the lefties who started the ball rolling were not allowed by Islamists to address the people in Tahrir Square? Not a whole lot of happy women in your pictures….
Maybe you got some great pictures of the Kharg sailing through the Suez? Or the riots of Copts?
Yep, you did a lot. For the rest of your life you can reflect on the imagined role you played in getting Egypt to turn a new leaf in its relationship with Iran and Hizb’Allah. I was hoping for some pictures from Iran and Syria, Their rebels needs some moral support…
On a better note, Gates says someone else can arm the rebels. The Libyan FM in England will lay his case out for Lockerbie and the IRA as just two Qaddafi efforts. Maybe the Brits will nail Qaddafi and avoid laying bare all the truth. Sarkozy would like that too.
Basically Gates is giving France and England an “Iraq”, but then we are NATO….so we just gave it to ourselves.
Spindok, we’ve already heard it and trust me, it ain’t deep…..
Someone here said all you need is water and oil.
Well, we see oil in play, here’s some water: http://www.informationdissemination.net/2011/03/will-war-for-water.html
Egypt has fire to their West, East and South…
Rani: The people who gave the lady an office, a car, a translators etc. naturally expect more than a small swiss army knife.
That doesn’t mean they’re terrorists or even Islamists, nor does it mean she is going to lie for them.
If they were Hamas or Hezbollah, they wouldn’t be waving Western flags.
And if they were Al Qaeda, they’d kill her.
Spindok: Banning is harsh because I need to hear what James May has to say.
Sorry, but nobody calls me a Nazi and stays. Nobody.
Hope you enjoy my book.
I can’t resist. a little red meat for the fear factory.
3000 Islamists to return from abroad
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/381810
A lawyer who works with various Islamist groups has predicted that 3000 leading figures of the Jama’a al-Islamyia and ُEgyptian Islamic Jihad groups will return to Egypt in a few days, as their names have been dropped from the “wanted” list maintained by Egyptian security forces.
“They are coming back from Afghanistan, Chechnya, Bosnia, Somalia, Kenya, Iran and London,” said Ibrahim Ali.
Let us hope that the CIA, et al gets the same news feeds and have some inkling on bumping up our assets in country to respond to this influx.
1,000,000 apiece? Try 600,000. Don’t inflate these costs. Or, perhaps you didn’t do your homework?
James May, you asswipe!
Are you back again? You rise from the ashes not like a phoenix but some deranged self-obsessed zombie dragging your ooze behind you.
I saw some of your what you call photos.
Now, may to yourself you’re a photographer or maybe to your mother you’re a photographer; but to a photographer, you ain’t no photographer.
What your are is just a loud-mouthed opinionated clone of anan and Victor but less “erudite”
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/defense/index.jsp?plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&newspaperUserId=27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7&plckPostId=Blog%3a27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7Post%3ab14e291c-7fe0-436f-85d4-847deeabe28a&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest
Predictions from an Old Israeli Pro….
though he doesn’t mention the steps Iran and Hizb’Allah may do if pressure against them mounts. Not sure about the comments compared to Egypt’s apparent direction. But then this guy bombed Saddam’s reactor personally….
Maxtrue,
Interesting sentiments.
I certainly agree with the last bit.
There’s an article in PJ Media about what Israel needs to do …and that is build a satellite system for broadcast to the world similar to Al-Jezeera to show what’s really happening and counter the execrable PLA/Hamas propaganda that has infected the West. (Sorry I’ve lost the link)
Its time for the Israelis to be more pro-active than re-active!
Kat: Let us hope that the CIA, et al gets the same news feeds and have some inkling on bumping up our assets in country to respond to this influx.
Why would we do that? When did it become our job to save Egyptians from themselves? We should be pulling our “assets” out of Egypt and disengaging, not turning up the heat. This is what Egyptians wanted so it’s what they should have. You do believe in self-determination, don’t you? Maybe next time after losing one more war, Egyptians will see the light. Or maybe they’ll just keep wallowing in their own misery. Who knows? Bottom line is that it’s not our job to babysit them anymore.
“If you look at the demographics in Libya, 82.6 percent of the people are literate, an estimated 88 percent live in cities—mostly in Benghazi and Tripoli—and about half the population is under the age of 15. So the young urban rebels in Benghazi may be fairly representative.”
I’d say these are rather good numbers. Way too many youngsters though.
leo @101 Yep, the stats do look good for Libya. Spectacularly good compared to a place like Egypt.
MC @86, I agree with you. We own this problem now and if we don’t make sure Q is finished then we’ve got trouble because he’ll have no motivation whatsoever to try to maintain any good relations with the west.
Nate @89, Sorry if I’ve been monopolizing MJT’s comments. I’ll try to tone it down
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-04-01/libyan-rebels-seek-cease-fire-after-u-s-vows-to-withdraw-jets.html
Yes, I know they are nutty at times and the nerve stuff is quite strange (but reported elsewhere too). The new above was however, what Debka predicted – a cease-fire along the north -south line of division. They based their three week old prediction on Qaddafi assets, the rebels incompetence and cold feet by the allies based on Egyptian, Turkish, Russian and Chinese rejection of taking out Qaddafi’s entire army. Note how Qaddafi used the weather to his advantage. Taking down our eyes is something the Iranians and Chinese understand is important as well as decoys and back up C and C.
Now if Deka is nuts, what does that say about their accuracy here v the NYT, WAPO, BBC and the WSJ?
That’ s why I said Craig, if you have the right filter, even Al-Jezeera has some facts others do not among the BS slant….
excuse the typos. My computer and keyboard is partially under plastic from a plumbing job in my apartment.
Hey Craig, don’t worry, we all have had our runs….
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/staten_island/dad_says_boy_charged_with_hate_crime_lCO0s2I9o4tpnz48X69w4H
pretty amazing….from your newspaper Michael.
Dear Craig,
This is not a question of Egypt’s self-determination. We have CIA assets in plenty of countries that have been long time allies and “self-determination”.
While this will essentially be Egypt’s problem, it does not mean that we should not be tracking information or these people to determine their associations that could lead to greater information on the on going main front in afghanistan and Pakistan. Nor to ignore that the return of these men would mean the establishment of ideological cells in Egypt that might push towards greater threats to Europe, the US mainland or our interests.
I am not so ideologically impelled that I do not recognize the dangers in the newly open Egypt. However, neither am I so caught up in one stream of thought that I do not see both the blessings and the curse of each event.
Some here apparently missed my point that this fight is going to be the Arab/Muslim fight with us on the side doing the best we can to turn it before the Salafis AQ establish themselves as the 21st centuries totalitarian government seeking world domination (or, at least, regional). Before it turns to WW3 (or four or five depending on which school of military world history you adhere to)
This area is really too short and somebody else’s to put together my view on the trajectory of historical movements and what should be our strategy in the face of it.
Suffice it to say that technology such as the internet not only made revolutions move at a faster pace, but it means that everything else moves at a faster pace, history and war included. We should be moving in that direction as a nation, with our strategy and the way that our security and intelligence apparatus works. We must be able to do as the marines say “improvise, adapt and overcome”. Otherwise, we lose.
Democracy in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya (Yemen I have no opinion on as yet) creates the good and the bad scenarios. We have to be able to adopt our actions, policies and strategy to it. That is the reality of the 21st century.
What our policy should be now is Freedom now and always, wherever it can reach. Not some washed up idea of “self determination”, but Freedom as we understand it because, contrary to Fukuyama’s assertions that history had ended, the course of modern human history suggests that tyrannical and oppressive ideologies and regimes have as yet to run their course.
Salafi Wahabism is the curse of the late 20th and early 21st century. In fifty years, it will be something out of Africa or the Russian ‘stans. Maybe another Asian monster will arise. Globalization of information and trade, rising middle classes, thwarted working classes, these are all things we have seen before and will continue to see for some time. It has historically led to revolutions and, sadly, the rise of some really horrific political, socio-economic ideologies.
Our only defense is the defense that we realized after WWII, the one that Reagan saw so ably in the 80′s and Bush 43 articulated in his 2004 inaugural address. That is the defense and spread of freedom and democracy. that does not mean that radical and totalitarian ideologies do not rise against it. It means, we have to put the right strategies in place and be forever on guard. It means we have to support freedom and democracy wherever it can spread, widening the defense perimeter. Otherwise, we develop a siege mentality.
In history, people under siege break that siege by either a) surrendering, b) being rescued by an outside force c) muster their forces and charge out of the gates to confront forces in the open or d) the siege party is decimated and demoralized by hunger, disease, lack of supplies and money, and the long, boring course of the siege. That last only occurs if the besieged have adequate supplies of food, water, armaments and people and the siege party’s supply chain is too long and unsustainable. Modern transportation and medicine, as well as long distance missiles makes the siege party pretty comfortable over the long haul in a modern “siege”.
Now, frankly, I am not interested in a or d and do not see one nation on the outside who would be strong enough or willing to do b. And, really, c) is what you do after you allowed yourself to be isolated and put under siege.
The way that castles defended themselves against being put under siege in the first place was to constantly have patrols outside the gates, have the greater part of the military forces moving outside the walls on a regular basis and creating alliances with near by and distance neighbors, widening the area through which a force would have to travel and avoid being molested before it reached the castle walls and placed the castle under siege.
That is what we need to be doing now. We can’t predict everything, we can’t stave off every totalitarian idea from arising to confront us, but we can be better prepared to do it if we have the right mentality and strategy to avoid the siege. that means that the idea of freedom and democracy as a bulwark against outside confluences of nationalism and totalitarian ideologies keeps us safer. It is the right policy then and it is the right policy now.
Sorry, I did run on about it anyway. So, sue me.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/top/all/7501966.html
And watch what starts to happen in Afghanistan and Pakistan. We’ve had CIA there for a long time. Who exactly are we fighting for and what is plan B and C for the grim eventualities that may happen in Pakistan?
And eventually, taking out Qaddafi’s inner circle (those that haven’t already defected) will seem like the obvious option…
Craig,
Check this out.
http://freerangeinternational.com/blog/?p=4025#comments
Islamists are 100% young educated sity dwellers as(as she says).
I was scolded( 93): “That doesn’t mean they’re terrorists or even Islamists, nor does it mean she is going to lie for them.” I realy dont think, least of all claim, that they are terrorists or any thing in that direction. But I believe most of them, if not all, are non secular. As I wrote about “true Jihad” Islamists can be the most peace loving decent people one can meet, I know because I meet some of them, but there are also the other kind. I also dont think the lady will lie for anybody. Her kind just do their atmost best not to lie. All I say is that it is a very dynamic situation, I think that the young revolutionaries dont realy know yet what they are for and what they are against, more over past experience in the ME have demonstrated again and again how fast flags will be changed. But I do say that it is good for a reporter not to get too many things from the people he is reporting about. And I say that those who are giving such things expect to get some thing in return, if only good will. Gadafi him self was using that trick when he invited all kind of “important” people to Libya, all expeses paid and a little bit more.
Rani: But I do say that it is good for a reporter not to get too many things from the people he is reporting about.
I completely agree when we’re talking about money (I would never take cash from anybody I write about), but getting a meal and a ride isn’t going to corrupt many people. I’ve been fed by Hezbollah, but it takes a lot more than that to get good will from me.
I wouldn’t worry much about this if I were you.
When my book launch is over I may be heading to Eastern Libya myself (depending on what’s happening at the time), and if I find myself in a den of Islamists, believe me, I’ll say so no matter how many nice meals they feed me.
From Maxtrue article: U.S. political and military leaders said they’re unwilling to start providing arms and training for rebels fighting against Qaddafi. Mullen said there are “plenty of countries who have the ability, the arms, the skill set to be able to do this.” Gates said the U.S. doesn’t know enough about the insurgent groups beyond a “handful” of leaders.
Interesting. Especially in conjunction with pulling our combat aircraft out of the operation. I wonder if he’s just being politically correct in some way with this statement? I imagine our military intel people have gotten pretty good at filtering through communications intercepts amongst insurgents, these last 10 years. Seems like the DoD must know more than “we don’t know”.
Kat,
This is not a question of Egypt’s self-determination. We have CIA assets in plenty of countries that have been long time allies and “self-determination”.
That’s true. But. Almost everything that has been done so far in the “new” Egypt has directly aided the Muslim Brotherhood. Even the lifting of the Emergency Laws. I mean, bottom line, despite the claims that a lot of these little moves help all Egyptians if you look behind the facade that’s not really true. And this seems to be what Egyptians want. So when you suggest that the US should beef up its CIA (and other agency) presence in Egypt to counter it, you’re arguing that the US should act against the interests of the Egyptian people that you just spent so much time claiming you’re supporting
I am not so ideologically impelled that I do not recognize the dangers in the newly open Egypt. However, neither am I so caught up in one stream of thought that I do not see both the blessings and the curse of each event.
That’s the way I tried to view things in Egypt as well. However, I’m no longer to see any “blessing” for the US in Egypt. From where I’m sitting they traded order for anarchy, empowered Islamists, and failed to even fight for (let alone achieve) any of the secular democratic changes they said they wanted. It seems to me they are on track to create another fake democracy not much different from the one they had except that the Muslim Brotherhood will have a bigger footprint from now on. And that’s “best case”.
Anyway, I agree with much of what you say when it comes to trying to promote our ideology (or “values” as Obama put it) in opposition to Islamists(or “salafis” as you put it). Except that I exclude Egypt. Egypt was our closest “ally” in the region for 3 decades. Egyptians know our ideology, and have rejected it. And I very much include the revolutionaries in that. We’ve lost the ideological war in Egypt. The nest step is real war, and the faster the Islamists gain (more) support from the Egyptian people and begin to be able to exert their will on Egypt, the faster that Egypt will suffer a catastrophic defeat on the battlefield. And I think it’s be great if that happened sooner rather than later because if it happens earlier enough it may not be too late for Egyptians to change their minds. If the MB becomes deeply enough entrenched in Egypt and THEN starts a war, Egypt is going to be a pariah state and possibly a failed state as well. And there are already enough of those around.
I think one of the main differences between you and me is that being a libertarian I’m prepared to let people in other countries suffer the consequences of their own actions. I’m just guessing but I think you feel compelled to try to prevent them from making mistakes. I can respect that, even if I don’t agree with it
Rani: Gadafi him self was using that trick when he invited all kind of “important” people to Libya, all expeses paid
A friend of mine went to Libya on Qaddafi’s dime and wrote this when he got back.
Craig, I thought the same thing. Perhaps this is why a cease-fire might be better than arming the rebels right away. However, the real risk here is if Qaddafi stays. And you want to bet that if there is a cease-fire, Qaddafi will send terror bombers East and likely AQ will send them West.
Michael, I would above all protect your skin. It is one thing to report the truth and another to piss off people who could string you up in a flash. I know how hard it is for you to be sitting this one out, but on the bright side: when you go back there will be many interesting places to go. And I think the STL will be out around June. By then Egypt could be taking some grief for their “new relationship” with Iran.
CNN and a few other mainstream blogs have started reporting this story: http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-583441
What is weird is that the administration hasn’t commented. Nor did they respond to Chad’s claim of manpads falling into AQ and Hizb’Allah hands.
Defense Tech reports the use of B-1B Lancers dropping bombs on a hundred targets as well as this: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/31/world/africa/31intel.html?_r=1&hp
Now some are suggesting Special Ops would be better against Qaddafi than arming the rebels. The more this plays out, the more correct some here have been.
Your worries Craig about Egypt are mine as well. That was why I preferred Mubarak being pressure to reform with benchmarks rather than flee with his Intelligence chief. Egyptian military see a threat from the South they know the US won’t side with them on. In the East they worry about armed radicals and in the East, Hizb’Allah, Hamas and the MB are operating in the Sinai. They see Syria, Turkey and Iran conspiring to send weapons there. If we can’t have leverage in this, we never will. So if Egypt decides to go towards Iran, we should cut our losses in Egypt and transfer the money to Israeli defenses.
In the West…..and in the East…..
Maxtrue,
“So if Egypt decides to go towards Iran, we should cut our losses in Egypt and transfer the money to Israeli defenses.”
That would be nice. You can’t operate an Abrams tank without spare parts.
But frankly, I don’t see that happening with a WH and State Dept. that thinks Assad is a “reformer”. Sheeesh!
Good luck!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/poll/2011/apr/01/christianity-islam Burning a book in Florida is not responsible for 11 people being murdered in Afghanistan. People who answered yes, should have their heads examined. Seriously.
What if Brits murdered Muslims in London as retribution for Christians slaughtered in Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Egypt? What utter garbage…..
As Craig says, Yesjb, 2012 is coming fast. Maybe the next time Brits, French and Israelis take the Suez, Americans won’t be so confused as to why. Egypt will implode if isolated. Their only way out is the West. Kiss tourism good bye. They do not control the water level of the Nile, do they?
Now which party here will push for a larger foot print in Israel. Bibi would be dumb to turn down such and offer. KSA must take a shit or get off the toilet…
Note: my position isn’t isolationist. It is just making threats more credible, ME leaders don’t think we’re very serious. It is time we send a very clear signal.
#116 Maxtrue: What is weird is that the administration hasn’t commented.
It’s not weird at all. The reason the administration didn’t and won’t comment is that the story you linked to is from the DebkaFiles. The page at the link says, “iReport is a user-generated section of CNN.com. The stories here come from users.” In other words, Victor and anan could have posted it.
I am saying that neither Victor nor the DebkaFiles are a reliable source of news. No, wait, I’ll say that Victor is a more reliable source of news than the DebkaFiles.
I’m going to repeat what I think I posted here a few months ago. When Debka first arrived, some of the bloggers and news posting sites linked to or carried Debka reports. Some bloggers, like the ones at Power Line, stopped using them for news because they found them unreliable. Other sites, like Lucianne.com banned their users from posting from Debka because they deemed Debka “not a reliable news source.”
I still see bloggers, even at PJM, cite Debka reports, but they still say things like, “OK, it’s from Debka, so take it with a grain of salt.”
I stopped paying any attention to Debka many, many years ago. Let me show two reasons why off the top of my head. (I found the copies on Google because I have read that Debka has removed its biggest blunders from its archives.)
The first Debka example said that China moved troops into Afghanistan to fight the invading American troops: http://www.patriotsaints.com/News/Breaking/Chinese_troops_pour_into_Afghanistan.htm Good grief. Pure fantasy. Alice Through the Looking Glass.
The other report said that Bush and Putin agreed that Russia could deploy and use tactical nuclear (neutron) weapons in Chechnya and that the United States could deploy and use tactical (neutron) weapons in Afghanistan: http://www.rense.com/general14/aff.htm Am I out of line by saying that only a complete, total idiot would believe something like that?
In terms of accuracy, Debka=Michael Moore=International Solidarity Movement.
Let me just say that I never took Debka seriously and have never once cited it. It was obviously (to me, anyway) a bullshit crackpot site from the very beginning.
I strongly urge those of you who read it to stop.
Dikehopper: Am I out of line by saying that only a complete, total idiot would believe something like that?
No.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/8422469/Seven-killed-in-worst-ever-attack-on-UN-workers-in-Afghanistan.html
Seven United Nations workers have been executed in the northern Afghanistan city of Mazar-e-Sharif, two of them by beheading, by demonstrators protesting the burning of a Koran at a church in Florida.
Mazar-i-Sharif is a relatively peaceful town, and was earmarked as one of the first where Nato troops would be replaced by Afghan forces.
That’s the kind of “peaceful protesting” we see in a “relatively peaceful town” in Afghanistan. After 10 years of notion building and trying to teach Afghans about our “ideals”.
I think Obama is dead wrong when he says that defending our ideals is reason enough to go to war. But that’s a discussion for another day. In the meantime, we have to figure out how to get Qadafi and his cohorts out of power in Libya without getting ourselves immersed in Libya’s internal situation after he’s gone.
“Burning a book in Florida is not responsible for 11 people being murdered in Afghanistan.¤
“Seven United Nations workers have been executed in the northern Afghanistan city of Mazar-e-Sharif, two of them by beheading, by demonstrators protesting the burning of a Koran at a church in Florida.”
As a Swede and colleague (he was a jurist) to one of the murdered UN worker in Mazar-i-Sharif, it would be convenient to blame and have an scapegoat in the priest in Florida.
But that is to easy.
The problem is that some people in this world don’t know any other language than violence. It’s time for us westernes, and specially us in Sweden that havn’t been to war since over 200 years ago, to get in terms with reality.
It’s time for us to join you Americans in the fight for freedom. And to understand that freedom can’t be wun without making sacrifices, even if it consists of violance.
V
Yeah Craig, I mentioned that above. Burn a Koran and people die. While I think the burning is inflammatory, it is only because people in the ME are nuts to a large degree. We are supporting a country that thinks like they’re in the 16th century.
I think one reason that Pakistan is not cooperating is that KSA hasn’t put enough pressure such as moving away from them if they don’t combat the Taliban. Pakistan does not want to be isolated and believe me, a radical regime with nukes would isolate Pakistan. They will move to a potential ground zero state of existence. This could convince tribal leaders to support those military leaders who think such a strategic move would be terrible. And China would face serious retribution for any support having NK on their back
I bring up Pakistan because they are the reason Afghanistan is stuck. Only a serious eradication of Taliban in Pakistan will end their power in Afghanistan and bring them to the table. It has been almost a decade of training in Afghanistan. We should consider lowering our profile, reducing our support of Pakistan and consider collaboration with India. We can direct Rice to publicize the human right violations in Pakistan and considerations for failing to curb human right abuses, capture of terrorists while denying the US or NATO to assist in the capture of criminals.
Afghanistan could be told the same thing. If the US leaves and the government of Afghanistan does not enforce justice, then our values could take action against the criminals and form alliances with the tribal leaders. What national army will stop us? The Taliban of course, are free to unite with Iran or AQ. If Radicals come to power in Pakistan, they merely bring themselves one step closer to annihilation. They are simply out numbered and out financed.
I am aware CNN took the story from DEBKA Dikehopper having read the article from Debka posted above. Don’t you think it crossed the mind of the bosses at CNN? I am not sure the CIA confirmed all the Sarin was accounted for and the bigger story floating is the possible symptoms of nerve gas in some Yemeni protesters. As far as Libya per se, DEBKA have been far better predictors than the NYT. They also called Kharg for what is was and they were among the first to announce joint visits by KSA and Israel to Russia recently as well as calling the Egyptian new leaf towards Iran days before it was publicly announced. Even then Western media didn’t talk much about it, did they? While I am aware of the difference between fact and fiction their speculation on Libya and Egypt has been more on target than many here, right down to the stolen manpads and the tactics of Qaddafi a month before WAPO and the NYT. The cease-fire trying to negotiated now, is the temporary end-state they predicted three weeks ago. As far as Libya, they are similar in sentiment to Craig. They point out a stalemate and not removing Qaddafi would be incredibly stupid though they did not advocate the US getting involved, nor did Netanyahu or KSA.
I am not defending them as a news organization, but on several issues they have far out-shined CNN, the BBC, the NYT and WAPO. I have however, I have not used many references to DEBKA here.
Dikehopper, I have my own long list of fantasy from Debka and I understand Michael’s characterization, but if I can plumb Al-Jezeera for tib bits of exclusive fact (tangentially collaborated by known facts from other sources) , I can filter Debka as well. I learned how to sniff out the editorial BS from many years of reading the NYT. And Debka is far more obvious in its delirium. Victor and Anan present no record that matches Debka’s “successes” although I concede that Debka is frequently as absurd as the former.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/52074842/Military-of-Libya
Our first conflict was almost 30 years ago.
Visonara, if such a Western sentiment took shape, these bastards would fold long before they acquire the means to screw us. The more Western resolve, the less likely force will be even needed. Our division is what allow them the opportunity to advance and mock the very concept of Liberty and freedom. Uneducated victims? Japan was a victim and look at their sublime grace.
It is not time to run away, but consolidate and redeploy our forces in a manner that best describes our morality.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110401/ts_yblog_theenvoy/defense-shuffle-u-s-set-to-name-new-afghanistan-commanders
May he’ll run for President? At least he seems free to talk after this summer. And after all that he has done bailing out two Presidents, this one won’t make him Chief of Staff. Great payback for taking on Afghanistan for Obama.
Visionara,
You might have to cede Malmø to some Caliphate!
Visionara @ 127,
Please, by all means, join.
Start with cleaning up Malme and continue with the rest of the country.
And most importantly, first of all clear your heads of self-defeating liberal nonsense.
“The problem is that some people in this world don’t know any other language than violence.”
Then you already know which language to learn.
Like they say in the Middle East, ‘if the mountain will not come to Mohamed, then Mohamed must come to the mountain’.
Correct me defenders of Liberal Democracy, is not the gravest threat our most important?
While we empathize with every life half lived, what is our gravest threat? The use of force against our society by a faceless enemy who leaves no calling card. Never in the history of man, has so much catastrophe been reduced to so small a form. And never so wide a net. We know the point of extortion. Imagine if Qaddafi had nukes. Or worse, Saddam. Or even worse, Khomeini.
I am coming to think that the time is passing for America to play the role of a global referee or arbitrator. The UN will need someone to keep their heads on before rendering assistance in humanitarian aid zones. We ought to refuse to be intimidated by threats of mass religiously-induced psychosis. We need to demonstration mass velocity-induced necrosis of the serpent’s head. Maybe in our moment of divisiveness and doubt, we will finally realize in our descent we have too many vested interests to play the role of an arbitrator.
There is nothing arbitrary about the violence and abuse we see.
And we have really only one interest.
For the young people Yesjb, you are so right. We need to beam this message out. Hollywood would rather help others beam their messages in.
One would think Israel and the US would be smarter about these things. Once upon a time, Jews in America helped revolutionize what media and messaging were all about. TV was born.
“I strongly urge those of you who read it [Debka] to stop.”
I suppose you want us to stop reading Weekly World News too.
I suppose you want us to stop reading Weekly World News too.
If you believe in Bat Boy, then yes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12944851
Four people have been killed in the Afghan city of Kandahar during a demonstration against the burning of a Koran in the US.
No word yet on which flavor of foreigner or religious minority the sacrificial lambs were, as of yet.
It followed a protest over the same issue in the northern city of Mazar-i Sharif on Friday left 14 people dead, including seven UN workers.
Really goes to show what a low state humanity has fallen to when even the western media describes mass-murder as “protesting”. I wonder if they’d consider it a “protest” if angry Orthodox Christians broke into a UN office in Russia and executed a dozen UN workers? Maybe that’s a little too close to home? How about Han Chinese in China doing the same thing? A peaceful demonstration, gone awry?
I seriously have to wonder what the hell is wrong with people when they claim to be human rights activists but they don’t expect the people they most want to help to actually behave as if they were human beings.
to 112 114
MT you are basically right. As a response to your blog I was going to invite you for a meal (no pocket knifes) and give you a ride when you will visit here next time. I would have loved to talk about my good old days in Corvallis. Now if you will use my advice against me I will have to eat by my self and nobody to talk with, a right punisment for talking too much. Any way thanks for the attention and take care of your self, also thanks for the blog.
23 people in Afghanistan have been murdered in the last 24 hours in some kind of revenge against reports of a US “cleric” burning a Koran. I wonder if Broadway could censor Parker and Stone if their next sterling production included a character named Mohammad. Mormon is getting rave reviews. Absolutists will find no artistic license valid. I guess it could get down to the commercial liability insurance.
Thousands have actually died in the Ivory Coast as rebels battle the last government stronghold. A bit of NATO or Africa Corp or AU help to support the IC candidate who actual won the last election would seem more straight forward than Libya.
Looking back on my post about Debka, I think the opening may have made it a bit misleading. My post was meant for all readers of the Comments section, not Max. I have no doubt that Max, and probably *most* of the regular commenters here, have developed a degree of their own “BS filters.” But there are likely many readers who haven’t.
Anyway, apologies.
———
And, hey. Let’s cool it with “Bat Boy.” He’s my son. His mother was frightened by a bat while she was pregnant with him – that’s what happened. And he does a good job of taking care of the flies in the house.
——–
Short story on Libyan opposition’s military leaders: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/only-a-few-of-libya-oppositions-military-leaders-have-been-identified-publicly/2011/04/01/AFHP2JKC_story.html
Update on the Goldstone Report: http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?id=214830 Strange.
135. Michael J. Totten
I suppose you want us to stop reading Weekly World News too.
If you believe in Bat Boy, then yes.
April 2, 2011 – 1:52 am Link to this Comment
************************************************
Can’t sleep Michael? (1:52am)
You getting heavy rain like we are in Seattle?
Goldstone’s revised opinions are indeed strange, Dikehopper. I’m not buying his claim that he didn’t have enough information to accurately assess Israeli military action at the time, though. What responsible investigator would make accusations when he didn’t have enough information to have reason to believe they were true?
Exactly right, but Michael has journalistic reasons for steering clear of particular sources. As for Debka, I am reminded of the boy who cried wolf, but that doesn’t mean some of the cries might be real….
Craig, this is really starting to turn sour: Protests over Koran burning spread in Afghanistan, with 9 dead in Kandahar
“By Joshua Partlow and Javed Hamdard, Saturday, April 2, 12:01 PM
KABUL — Violent protests over the burning of a Koran spread to the heart of Taliban country Saturday, as clashes between demonstrators and Afghan police in Kandahar left at least nine people dead and more than 90 injured, according to Afghan officials…..
……The provincial governor’s office issued a statement blaming the mayhem on “wicked and destructive people” among the protesters but endorsed people’s right to condemn the Koran burning.
Jan Aghan, a 28-year-old shopkeeper in Kandahar, said he took part to “show the infidels that we are unhappy with their actions.” He said that the protesters wanted to go to the U.N. office but that the “Afghan slave government and the cruel Americans” blocked their path.
“We think the Karzai government doesn’t want any protest against the people who burnt our holy book in America,” he said. “We are waiting to find a way to reach to the [U.N.] office and announce our objections.”
The governor’s spokesman, Zalmay Ayoubi, blamed the unrest on the “idiot, infidel, blasphemous Americans” and said the people have a right to show their anger about the desecration of the Koran. “”
“infidel, blasphemous Americans”? I can accept idiot for many, but we Americans are keeping the Taliban from re-introducing Afghanistan to the 16th century. Without the US, what would happen to Karsai?
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/04/kuwait-iran-iranian-diplomats-to-be-expelled-over-spy-ring-row-in-latest-blow-to-arab-gulf-persian-r.html
Although Kuwait has a sizable Shia population, do they remember the US coming to save them from Saddam? I think so. I suspect KSA having talked with Israel and Russia have the beginnings of plan B…..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12947639
What happened next is a matter of dispute. The provincial governor insists that the (so-far) peaceful protesters had not even intended to march on the UN until Taliban “infiltrators” diverted the crowd.
Claiming that the Taliban “infiltrated” a mob of Muslims in Afghanistan who were angry at the west for perceived offenses against Islam seems a bit like claiming Obama supporters have “infiltrated” the White House.
Maxtrue: Craig, this is really starting to turn sour…
Yes. The sense of entitlement and arrogance combined with homicidal rage directed against anyone who offends them is breathtaking, isn’t it? I disagree with you that it is only starting to turn sour, though. Nothing has really changed in Afghanistan in the last 10 years, in my opinion. The Taliban is only on the outs because we physically forced them into hiding. They will be back soon as we are gone. All the time and effort (and money) that has been dumped into the nation building project there has been wasted. We should have restricted ourselves to counter-terrorism, and then closed the op down when we ran out of targets. Everything started to go wrong when we decided instead of hunting AQ in Pakistan, we’d “fix” Afghanistan so that they wouldn’t be welcome there anymore.
Hmmm… I think I get it with Goldstone now. He works for the UN as a war crimes investigator. The UN has a peacekeeping mission in Ivory Coast. According to what I’ve been reading on the BBC’s live feed the rebel fighters that the UN is backing have been going house to house looting and slaughtering residents and random, with many thousands dead. While the peacekeepers are nowhere to be found. He’s probably not looking forward to a compare-and-contrast when it comes to the conduct of UN-backed rebels in Ivory Coast vs UN opposed IDF in Israel. I damn sure wouldn’t be, if I was him. And how much would it suck if Goldstone was the guy assigned to investigate war crimes in Ivory Coast, too, when he did such a shameful hatchet job with his last report?
Rani: Now if you will use my advice against me I will have to eat by my self and nobody to talk with, a right punisment for talking too much.
I will gladly take you up on it (thanks) and wouldn’t dream of “punishing” you for anything you’ve said here. I wouldn’t say that about everyone who has left a comment on my blog, but you are not a troll.
Craig
In Ivory Coast the UN troops are of AU’s, not white !
MAX
Exactly right, but Michael has journalistic reasons for steering clear of particular sources. As for Debka, I am reminded of the boy who cried wolf, but that doesn’t mean some of the cries might be real.
*******************************
Funny isn’t it that CNN picked it up and ran with it. I remenber (long ago) when CNN was the go to for news. Now it’s just a rag.
After Tailwind by CNN that spelled their doom.
144
Not ten year !!! more than a 100, read Kipling.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8423649/Middle-East-crisis-Inside-Syrias-ruling-family.html
Interesting.
Well Craig, there have been some small gains in Afghanistan but I’m not sure how we go after the Taliban and AQ in Pakistan without bases in Afghanistan. Remember the underlying crisis Bush stepped into and Clinton was unable to correct? India and Pakistan were edging closer to armed violence and nuclear blustering. We need a strategy for Pakistan and what we do in Afghanistan at this point is derived by that strategic consideration.
Now can you imagine the situation should Pakistan fall to extremists, or if India and Pakistan went to the brink again? In many ways, Pakistan is right behind Iran and NK in dangerousness. I do think that after building “an army” for decade, we should consolidate and redeploy our forces directed at the most important threats. In Pakistan and Afghanistan these are counter-terrorism targets. I want to see real stabilization forces from the world in Afghanistan before I see these forces deployed to Libya.
The following is an opinion/observation of one UN employee in Afghanistan – on yesterday’s attack. Very interesting insider’s view. But again, remember that it is just one person’s thoughts on one incident. http://www.undispatch.com/this-attack-is-different
========
I followed the “Goldstone Commission” and Goldstone himself (including his history in South Africa) closely. There were a lot of people who thought that he was just a baaad person. I didn’t think so. There were many accusations about his character and history that were simply false. Deliberately distorted. I thought he was well intentioned but incompetent, very poor judgment.
I think that his statements now, no matter what rationalizations he uses, illustrate that. His lack of good judgment, that is.
(Heh, maybe he can get a job in the Obama administration – where incompetence seems to be a prerequisite.)
Maxtrue,
Well Craig, there have been some small gains in Afghanistan but I’m not sure how we go after the Taliban and AQ in Pakistan without bases in Afghanistan.
Same way we went after the Taliban and AQ in Afghanistan. That’s why God and the United States Air Force invented the B-52. And besides, we had bases in Afghanistan beginning in late 2001. If we’d gone after terrorists in Pakistan as well as Afghanistan, Osama bin Ladin might have never found refuge on the other side of the border. Remember all the speculation that we had him in Tora Bora?
Remember the underlying crisis Bush stepped into and Clinton was unable to correct? India and Pakistan were edging closer to armed violence and nuclear blustering.
And remember how Bush got Pakistan to go along with our mission in Afghanistan? Musharraf claims the US threatened to bomb his country to get compliance. I suspect that’s an understatement. I think the US probably threatened to nuke Pakistan until it was glass. We weren’t fucking around in fall of 2001. I doubt we’d have heard much by way of complaints if we’d gone after terrorists in Pakistan as well as Afghanistan. We might have even gotten some reluctant help. I think somebody made the wrong call, and decided it was better to try to isolate the problem to Afghanistan.
We need a strategy for Pakistan and what we do in Afghanistan at this point is derived by that strategic consideration.
As you know, I disagree with you about that. Our only vital national interest in Pakistan is terrorists who reside there, and if we’re not going to do anything about that then we may as well give the Pakistanis the boot if they won’t get their own house in order. I don’t have any problem with letting Pakistan’s neighbors deal with Pakistan, in whatever way they find necessary. We shouldn’t be fronting for them. They aren’t our buddies.
I want to see real stabilization forces from the world in Afghanistan before I see these forces deployed to Libya.
I don’t want stabilization forces in either place. But if it came down to a choice I’d say Libya is more important not just to the US but to the whole world. Libya also has the potential to be the most advanced country in the Arab world. Think of Morocco, only with a better educated population and a much higher standard of living. Wouldn’t that be nice? Afghanistan on the other hand has nothing to offer the world but terrorism, religious extremism and ignorance. How long would it take to fix that? Another 10 years? Another 50? And how much would it cost? And the government in Afghanistan can’t even make payroll without foreign assistance. How does the economy in Afghanistan improve, when violent mobs mass murder UN employees at the drop of a hat?
OK. Rant over.
===========
In regards to Eman Obeidi:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12941142
I has some reservations about the way this case was being reported by the media, but after reading accounts of people who know her and provided more detailed info on her background and the circumstances by which she came to be detained I have no doubt she’s been the victim of a horrible crime. She’s a very brave woman to have come forward with those charges in a conservative Muslim country, and especially during a time when Q is on a rampage against dissidents. Whatever happens next, she’s already a hero.
Craig @152 wrote: “And remember how Bush got Pakistan to go along with our mission in Afghanistan? Musharraf claims the US threatened to bomb his country to get compliance. I suspect that’s an understatement…We weren’t fucking around in fall of 2001.”
EXACTLY!!! Way too many people have forgotten that. There were a lot of Muslim countries and leaders of those countries that were scared xxxxless of us at that time. It wasn’t just Bush, it was the American people as a whole that were ready to reign destruction on *anyone* who was involved in 9/11 or would give harbor to them.
Pakistan is not and never was an ally. They were just scared of us. But they aren’t anymore.
Personally, I never thought we should have agreed to stay out of Pakistan if Pakistan agreed to cooperate. As Bush said at the time to all those countries, “You’re either with us or you’re with the terrorists.” There was no in-between. Pakistan would have decided what was in its own interests (like staying alive).
We should have chased the terrorists into Pakistan. My opinion.
“Yes. The sense of entitlement and arrogance combined with homicidal rage directed against anyone who offends them is breathtaking, isn’t it?”
Craig,
I’m sorry to say that this isn’t news.
Nothing has changed in at least 75 years. Try Ephraim Karsh’s “Palestine Betrayed”
This is a continuum of dysfunction!
Did you know that the Hebron Massacres in 1929 were caused by the Mufti proclaiming that the Jews were attacking the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem?
Nothing has changed…oh maybe it has…it’s gotten worse!
“If you believe in Bat Boy …”
Not without the long-form birth certificate. A COLB will not do.
“Who are the rebels” is a good question. It is impossible to hold a conversation with a mob because each individual wants their own conversation. Until there is someone who rises to a position of representing the mob, any conversation is impossible.
The first order of business after running the Colonel out of Benghazi should have been the holding of some sort of elections and having some people in a position to have some legitimate role in speaking for the people.
some crude pics and report:
“How I fought Gaddafi’s goons to try to rescue raped woman: Sky TV’s Lisa Holland describes her encounter with the simmering violence – and beguiling charm – of Gaddafi’s henchmen”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1372832/How-I-fought-Gaddafis-goons-try-rescue-raped-woman.html
About halfway down in that DailyMail article that Marie Claude linked is a photo of Libyan rebels.
One of those rebels is holding a Romanian made AKM Model 63 rifle. The wooden vertical fore grip is a RomArms trademark.
DRAW YOUR
OWN
CONCLUSIONS,
R
DRAW YOUR
OWN
CONCLUSIONS,
that the Americns still haven’t provided them arms !
what do you make of the following report from Debka?
Senior Libyan rebel “officers” sold Hizballah and Hamas thousands of chemical shells from the stocks of mustard and nerve gas that fell into rebel hands when they overran Muammar Qaddafi’s military facilities in and around Benghazi, debkafile’s exclusive military and intelligence sources report.
Word of the capture touched off a scramble in Tehran and among the terrorist groups it sponsors to get hold of their first unconventional weapons.
According to our sources, the rebels offloaded at least 2,000 artillery shells carrying mustard gas and 1,200 nerve gas shells for cash payment amounting to several million dollars.
US and Israeli intelligence agencies have tracked the WMD consignments from eastern Libya as far as Sudan in convoys secured by Iranian agents and Hizballah and Hamas guards. They are not believed to have reached their destinations in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, apparently waiting for an opportunity to get their deadly freights through without the US or Israel attacking and destroying them.
It is also not clear whether the shells and gases were assembled upon delivery or were travelling in separate containers. Our sources report that some of the poison gas may be intended not only for artillery use but also for drones which Hizballah recently acquired from Iran.
Tehran threw its support behind the anti-Qaddafi rebels because of this unique opportunity to get hold of the Libyan ruler’s stock of poison gas after it fell into opposition hands and arm Hizballah and Hamas with unconventional weapons without Iran being implicated in the transaction.
Shortly after the uprising began in the third week of February, a secret Iranian delegation arrived in Benghazi. Its members met rebel chiefs, some of them deserters from the Libyan army, and clinched the deal for purchasing the entire stock of poison gas stock and the price.
The rebels threw in a quantity of various types of anti-air missiles.
Hizballah and Hamas purchasing missions arrived in the first week of March to finalize the deal and arrange the means of delivery.
The first authoritative American source to refer to a Hizballah presence in Benghazi was the commander of US NATO forces Adm. James Stavridis. When he addressed a US Senate committee on Tuesday, March 29, he spoke of “telltale signs of the presence of Islamic insurgents led by Al-Qaeda and Hizballah” on the rebel side of the Libyan war. He did not disclose what they were doing there.
Muslim Brotherhood could takeover very quickly. Don’t get a false sense of security my friend’s.