The Death Spiral of the Iranian Regime
Monday night in the city of Karaj, a car blew up. It was carrying several members of the Revolutionary Guards’ “foreign legion,” non-Iranian Arabs being trained for operations against Americans and our friends and allies in the region. The explosion was enormous. “They used too much explosives,” an Iranian friend commented. Neither he nor I knows who carried out the attack, but it is only one of many. I haven’t seen a report about it in the press, but then there is no press these days in Iran; the papers — those that hadn’t already been shut down by the censors — have been silenced during the Norooz holiday.
But the Iranian people have not been silenced. In addition to assassinations such as the spectacular explosion in Karaj, there have been more joyful confrontations with security forces across the country. There may not be newspapers, but there are videos:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxlaH9wDMPY&feature=channel (from Kermanshah)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ohv8GhrEbNw&feature=channel (from Khoram Abad)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2i0ri-pV7Q&feature=player_embedded# (from Abadan)
http://homylafayette.blogspot.com/2010/03/tears-determination-and-joy-greet-new.html (from Shiraz and Tehran)
There are others, but you get the picture. It’s an ongoing revolt.
I’m often asked whether the Iranian people can actually defeat the evil regime that has oppressed them for more than three decades. When I say “hell yes,” they usually act surprised. Which, in turn, surprises me, until I remember that hardly any of our institutions of higher (or lower) learning study such things seriously any more. Along with military history, it’s pretty much vanished from university curricula. There are political reasons for this lack of understanding.
Even though we are living through one of the most revolutionary periods in human history, one is hard pressed to find thoughtful analyses of the explosive events in Iran coming from the misnamed “progressives.” This is doubly scandalous, both because they should have more sensitive antennae for such things, and because nobody should be surprised to find Iranians rebelling against their rulers; there were three revolutions there in the twentieth century alone. Iranians can rightly claim to be revolutionaries par excellence.
What’s wrong with these people?
The Left lost its revolutionary vocation when it became the blind supporter of Communism. The Leftists were unwilling to acknowledge that others had taken up the revolutionary cause. To admit that was to confess that they were no longer a vanguard movement, that they no longer fought for the freedoms that had defined them for two hundred years, and that they in practice had become defenders of the status quo. Unable to admit the truth, they set about distorting the language lest the truth become obvious.
That’s an inspiring column. Remember the purple fingers and the new writers of the purple age who were going to smash MSM lies? I guess I get impatient for that outcome sometimes. It’s slow. As for Iran, it’s usually slower than Iranian enthusiasm would have one believe. Along comes a son of a general under the Shah, talking about “Up-Wingers,” they’re going to outdo the French and the Russians in attempted accelerated change. Yet from that son, while Carter still presided, I learned that the Shah was doomed. Working at an ice cream shop, I knew more than the President knew. And Carter certainly spoke bitterly of having been misled by the CIA about Iran.
I really would like to believe that the Iranian people will toss their ruling bums out. But I fear that in a Mulholland Drive manner a malign bum may be in might-as-well-be-mystic charge. Bottom line, keep firing them cannons, Mr. Ledeen.
The memories of reading, long after the fact, of how the then Anatoli Scheransky, taught English. Kissinger was on trial, Brezhnev & Nixon versus Scoop Jackson, & Andrei Sakharov.
As long as geopolitics is shaped only by Gramsci, the amount of blood of dissidents on the hands of those who should have helped them, will be copious.
Dr. Ledeen sounds more like MEK of 29 years ago. They, too, thought what was needed was simply to cut the head of the regime, and then just watch everything implode. In the first round they killed 72 key leaders of revolution. Then they killed the prime minister, and then so many others in-between.
That is one of the MAIN reasons MEK is so much hated in Iran.
Iranians killing other Iranians who are oppressive and damaging to other Iranians proven to be fruitless with great potential for backfire with further killing with no results.
Mousavi, Karubi and alike know this so well. I think they have enough insiders and firepower to get rid of A. holes guard people and Ahmadinejad. However, I think Iranian people have reached a level of maturity in their struggle that condemns violence and killing of others to achieve its goal. If anyone doubts this, just go and study history of MEK and why they are so much hated and considered as the most anti Iranian people.
The fight against power holders in Iran is becoming like a marathon, where people are the ultimate winners, as they keep passing the torch to new runners to the finishing line.
So let’s NOT advocate and encourage assassinations and killing.
You keep referring to “MEK”. What is “MEK”? I have never seen this acronym before and have no idea what it means.
the mujahedin khalq, a leftist group that at first supported Khomeini, then had to flee, ended up in Iraq working for Saddam.
Always nice to have a inside look at liberty in its infancy.
The progressives/
regressives have been on the least liberating side of history for decades. They have been wedded to thuggish dictators for years, and it is NO accident that the left is in lockstep with Islamofascists world over-united in their hate of ALL things truly liberal.
Further, the left has mastered the art of language and propaganda, and herein lies (no pun intended) the crux.
While they have been able to subvert the meaning of good and evil, right and wrong, victim and aggressor, the average conservative has been slow to catch up in the arena of public opinion.
To be sure, the left not only has Alinsky to thank for paving the way for radical left revolutions, but they should pay homage to the grand daddy of language manipulation-
Noam Chomsky. He invented the dubious discipline of linguistics. It is NOT a coincidence that he is rabidly anti-American and deeply anti-semitic, regardless that he was born Jewish.
What are the western and “our policy makers” afraid of? Ah, they don’t want to disturb the oil … is that it? Or what?
Mr. Ledeen, I think you are correct in some ways, and in “denial” in other ways that prevent you from accepting the actual market conditions; and therefore your forecast are flawed. I will assume for now that you are not a government miss-information specialist, but I would like you to set me straight or change your foundational assumptions.
One can only conclude that the US policy towards Iran is to keep the tyrant dictators that parade as religious in power at all cost. How can you disagree?
The US policy is to install/maintain Sharia government in Afghan: instead of :”ultra Shari: Taleban.
The US policy in Iraq was to invade for the sole purpose of keeping Iraqi 7 million BBL/day of oil off the market, keep crude price high, and therefore finance the war against the US that is being waged by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, et al.. primarily through crude oil money and Al Qaeda types…Neocon install democracy at the point of a gun: “shill”.
Al Qaeda is the invention of intelligence agencies and is their terrorist wing for attacking western free market interest; since it is, Al Qaeda/Bin Laden should only be portrayed as”
“Mercenary marketing department/director for various government owned weapons manufacturers parading as “religious”, which by English definition they could not be: no English definition of “religious” could include flying planes into buildings…
Obama-Bush-Clinton-Bush: demand “a tyrant dictator government” is established on the West Bank/Gaza; even as the US sends army men to die allegedly fighting the same type governments that The US wants to establish…
The US in any case can not win any war, even if they wanted to, because any strategy for winning is a war crime. Every great General from 1860 to 1960 would be a war criminal under today’s “rules”, which in this war, the other side does not adhere to and only sees the US as weak for attempting to…
“Syrious Business”…”we will have a nice Long lasting War and sell lots of weapons” C 1991 Getty…delivered to every member of congress along with the battle tactics to be used against us between 1989-1991
1986-a complete change in the government operating out of Moscow will occur…similar to the way the government change in the Philippines”…delivered to congress: 1986…
Et Al
I thank you for the insight you offer us into this volatile region
The “evil regime” is the CIA who has been controlling Iran for decades despite what the mainstream media will have us believe. The USA will NEVER bomb or go to war with Iran. Never. The entire “US might bomb Iran this week” is one big lie. Iran is on board with the USA and has been for years. Ahmadenjihad is a CIA puppet. A performing flea for the media and the sheeple of the USA. I am sick and tired of all the anti-Iran lies.
If Iran wasn’t on board with the USA and NATO, then we would never have attacked Iraq or Afghanistan. We will never ever ever ever ever go to war with Iran. Israel won’t either despite what we are being told. This is all to make oil more expensive, keep huge funding going for the military and keep the occupation of Iraq alive. We are being lied to folks. The truth hurts.
Dr. Ledeen has been seduced by “Friedman’s fallacy” where he attributes good motives to “Progressives.” The Progressive movement is, as Jonah Goldberg would say, nothing then liberal Fascism. Except for the first phase of the movement it hasn’t even been liberal. Progressives have fallen in love with Mussolini, Stalin, Castro and any other dictator who spouts egalitarian propaganda.
Progressives don’t support the mullahs because Bush opposed them. They support the mullahs because they are dictators whose values they share. Progressivism is a cult where the rank and file are conned into believing they are part of the illuminati. They are the gullible true believers like the Jacobins of the French Revolution who found themselves on the scaffold; the Bolshevik who landed in the GULAG writing letter after letter to Comrade Stalin explaining that a mistake has been made; the Brown shirted follower of Eric Rohm who ended in Dachau for a few months or re-education; or the veteran of the Long March dragged into the streets by the Red Guards.
Progressivism is nothing more than Fascism with a smiley face and truncheon held behind the back.
“the Left had abandoned those fighting for freedom was too painful, too humiliating, and psychologically discombobulating.”
Is Michael Ledeen speaking in a tongue in cheek manner? Hard core leftists have never been for freedom. This is widely held myth that does not pass the laugh test. They minimally seek to become benevolent dictators. No revolution will receive their support if it does not advocate utopian schemes empowering them.
The Iranian Revolution:
What will our leaders say ?
“We are the friends of liberty everywhere,
but the guarantors only of our own.”
US policy toward Iran has two central,
interrelated goals: Preventing Iran from
acquiring weapons of mass destruction, and
from supporting terrorists; The US is eager
to bargain with Iran to reach these goals.
The US proposes that Iranian lives lost
due to US inaction during the revolution
be equated to US lives lost due to actions
of the Iranian government, and the matter
be closed.
Brilliant analysis of the new left and I hope you’re right about Iran. Down with Dictators!
The idea of revolution against tyrants scares the curent administration – I wonder why?
We should be air-dropping cheap pistols over sections of Iran for the revolutionaries to use – like we did in France during WWII. With “Made in the USA” in large letters on the barrel. Maybe Hi-Points.
5. Adina Kutnicki, Israel said: “Noam Chomsky. He invented the dubious discipline of linguistics.”
Actually, he didn’t invent the discipline of linguistics. It was invented by a great Sanskrit scholar named Panini centuries ago. When western scholars began learning Sanskrit back in the 18th century, they discovered his book, and that’s how modern Western linguistics got started.
But Chomsky’s book “Syntactic Structures” was de rigueur for students of language and linguistic analysis in the 60′s. Many people objected that he really never proved any of his claims, but it was taken very seriously anyway.
Michael, I conclude that you would love a distinction, so that you, and the people who pay attention to your entries here, can size up
two very different phenomena: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100031446/meps-criticise-the-most-successful-democratic-leader-in-latin-america/
Enjoy!
yes, david, perfect link. thanks so much. i hope all here take due notice.
Michael, your continued fight for the people of Iran is truly appreciated by this American. You are indeed correct when you say that the mullahcracy’s days are numbered. Also, anybody that denies Iranian involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan is either a fool or just plain stupid… very possibly both.
Keep up the good work.
I’m not sure that the Leftists have changed that much. Their bottom line has always been egalitarianism – not democratic revolution. They’ll support class warfare, but when it comes to America vs. Iran, America is the enemy because we are more prosperous. Bottom line: Leftists would rather encourage revolution in America than in Iran.
The path by which a country falls apart is fascinating … and clearly not well-understood. I would think that once it becomes apparent that a regime will fall, the outcome accelerates, and for straightforward and essentially obvious reasons. But this seems not to be so. I believe Dr. Ledeen is right, and that the terror masters are doomed. But then what is holding back that outcome? Who is interested in propping things up for awhile longer? Why and to what ends?
Mr. Ledeen: you and I exchanged before.
I am Iranian and we deposed the Shah and you are 100% correct that we will defeat this regim to.. I am 53 years old and I think by the time I reach 55 they will be mostly gone. the dynamics are far more different this time then back in 1979 as I am sure you know. you keep talking about the left and by that I assume you mean president Obama? I asked you before in a blog and I will ask you again: what did president Bush accomplish with the Iranian government in 8 years. NOTHING.THE iRANIANS WENT THEIR MERRY DOING WHAT EVER the f… they wanted to. in fact 8 years of Bush did nothing but to unite every faction of this tyrant government because of Bush’s arrogance.. it is “our way or highway”. every faction of the government and political parties, activist groups etc..thought Bush was arrogance and they basically united and told Bush to f…off.
Now back to Obama: did you listen to his new years message to the Iranian people last week? this is exactly what our people need to hear and this is exactly what the regim does not like to HEAR. it scares the sh… out of them. Obama has has created a huge rift within this government.. which is very big.
and for the nuclear issue:
Just that you know every Iranian weather pro government or anti government belives that it is “our right to have nuclear technology” in fact the Green movement’s Leader Mousavi who lost the rigged election has far more tougher stance on the nuclear issue than Ahmadinjed does.
Hope you are well.
tks, citizen. agree about bush, i wrote it at the time. on nukes i believe you are mistaken about Mousavi. on the impact of obama’s latest message i hardly think the regime needs such feckless rhetoric to fight amongst themselves; they are doing just fine. and finally please permit yourself a bit of doubt from time to time, it’s good for the soul.
The Washington liberal establishment are in an even tighter death spiral tha is Iran.