In 2004, George W. Bush successfully won reelection (and expanded his level of support from four years earlier) by not only making John Kerry's flip-flopping a key issue but also by selling the idea that it's not a great thing to change the commander-in-chief in the middle of a war — and the United States was in the middle of two at the time. Generally speaking, international conflict tends to make voters value continuity of leadership as opposed to change.
I suspect Joe Biden similarly saw the Israel-Hamas war as an opportunity to bolster his image as commander-in-chief. It's certainly different because American forces aren't directly involved in the war (that we know of). However, Biden's handling of the Ukraine-Russia war has become politically divisive, and publicly standing in solidarity with Israel must have seemed like a great opportunity to potentially cause a rally in support.
It didn't. His public support of Israel sent his approval ratings down from within his own party, putting Michigan firmly in Trump's column in the polls. It didn't take long for Biden to realize that he needed to appease the antisemitic wing of his party if he wanted to win reelection, and his public position on Israel has gotten tougher.
There's no way to overstate the importance of Michigan for Biden. Currently, Trump has been polling consistently ahead in Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which means that Biden must win all three of the "blue wall" states (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) to win the election by a thread.
Related: This Is What a Panicking Joe Biden Looks Like
While his tougher line against Israel appears to have caused the polls to tighten in Michigan, it is starting to cause significant backlash among pro-Israel and Jewish Democrats, especially after the Biden administration paused shipments of weapons to Israel that Congress had approved.
This week, left-wing Jewish actor Michael Rapaport posted a profanity-laced video to X/Twitter announcing his un-endorsement of Biden and declaring that voting for Trump is now on the table for him. Make no mistake about it, he's not going to be the only Jewish leftist to turn against Biden.
Even worse for Biden is that his efforts to keep Michigan in his column, he's also alienated a megadonor.
Democratic mega-donor Haim Saban wrote an email to Biden's aides Steve Ricchetti & Anita Dunn about Biden's decision to put on hold a weapons shipment to Israel: "Let's not forget there are more Jewish voters who care about Israel than Muslim voters who care about Hamas" pic.twitter.com/HdeI9iOL3W
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 9, 2024
According to Saban, "there are more Jewish voters who care about Israel than Muslim voters who care about Hamas.”
I have no idea if that is true. Antisemitism has become increasingly fashionable in the Democratic Party since the Obama years, and there's been little proof that Democrat-voting Jews have cared all that much. Perhaps Biden's blatant betrayal of Israel was a breaking point, but I'm not convinced that American Jews' political loyalties are directly tied to America-Israel relations. Yes, there will be (and has been) some backlash, but the Biden administration so far has made a political calculation that appeasing antisemitic voters is more politically expedient than appeasing its Jewish voter base.
That doesn't mean it won't. I suspect it will take a month or so of polling to see if Biden's betrayal of Israel has caused a shift in support. Regardless, one can't help but ask if kowtowing to antisemites is really worth it for Biden on a personal or moral level.
