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Rubin Reports

America’s Impending Defeat in Syria

August 27th, 2013 - 6:30 am

It’s really pretty simple. The American people understandably don’t want to go to war with Syria — not to mention with Syria’s patron, Iran — and especially not for the goal of putting the Muslim Brotherhood and murderous Islamists into power there. Going to war is a serious matter, to say the least. There’s no assurance how long it will take, how many lives it will cost, and what turns it may take. And the Middle East has just had several examples of these wars.

Iraq and Afghanistan cost a lot of money and lives as they extended for a much longer time than had been expected. In addition, they derailed the Bush administration’s electoral fortunes and domestic programs. With the main emphasis of the Obama administration being a fundamental transformation of America, such distractions are not desired.

There is one other important consideration: the Obama administration does not accept the traditional diplomatic and great power strategies. It believes that it can reconcile with Islamist states, it does not comprehend deterrents, it does not keep faith with allies, and it does not believe in credibility, the belief that only power exerted can convince a foe of seriousness.

Of course, that wouldn’t rule out a one-time targeted attack. But even if that were to be done, is America going to fight a full-scale war on the ground with allies–including al-Qaeda –which will never be satisfied and will always be eager to stab them in the back?

The administration has trapped itself with two problems: the rebels who are being supported in Syria are extreme radicals who may set off bloodbaths and regional instability if they win; and a challenge has been given to the very reckless forces of Iran, Syria, and Hizballah. When the United States threatens these three players, the response is always: “Make my day!”

So this is the situation, and the Obama administration is bluffing.

It does not want to exert force and probably won’t. Iran and Syria would be quite willing to fight a war, but the United States–people and government–do not have the will to do so.

What is the best option for the Obama administration? To try to negotiate — as unlikely as it is — a deal in which some kind of interim or coalition arrangement would be arranged with Russia and Iran to make a transition from the current regime. Mainly, this means a stalling tactic. This could work, though, if the regime does not actually win the war. Aid to rebels and some gimmicks perhaps, but no decisive action.

There is, however, still a problem — the two Syrian sides want to wipe each other out.

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Top Rated Comments   
I just realized this; reported by Conservative HQ:

The House, the President and the Constitution on Syria
congressional declaration Constitution Gas Attack in Syria House resolution Obama Syria Trey Radel
By George Rasley | 8/27/13
It says a lot about the establishment media’s culture of “give Obama a pass” that, as President Obama races to get America involved in the Syrian civil war, no one has pointed out that back in July the House exercised its constitutional power of the purse to rein-in any rush to involve the United States in the Syrian civil war.
US Capitol
The House did so by passing Representative Trey Radel’s (FL-19) amendment to the Department of Defense Appropriations Bill preventing the President from spending appropriated funds on American military "involvement" in Syria without first coming to Congress for their Constitutional approval – and it passed unanimously we might add.

I'd actually forgotten about this!
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
Syria is a vast, stinking, crippled, dank, unproductive, useless cesspool. Nothing good can come out of it. Nothing good can come out of a military intervention there. Syria is Somalia, only with buildings that are a lot older, presided over by an absolutely ruthless and unscrupulous Police State.

Nobody has ever bought anything stamped "Made in Syria." Not even the most simple thing......an ordinary pencil, say, or a pad of sticky notes.

Anyone that has visited Syria is awestruck by the intentional filth, degradation, torpor and utter rotten stench of the place. You can smell Syria miles offshore. The smell of raw, human sh!t fills the air. Imagine a tote tub full of untreated sewage, fought over by 10 times more police than anyone could ever reasonably use and you have just described Syria.

Intervene on behalf of any of the subhumans populating this hellhole, and as soon as they can they will turn on you, like jackals.
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
Teddy Roosevelt said diplomacy is talking softly while carrying a big stick. the current adminstration believes that diplomacy is about talking loudly while looking for a limp twig. Nothing destroys credibility like giving orders you know won't be obeyed and issuing ultimatums from which you routinely back down. It will be long time before the USA regains it's credibility around the world. Israel, Poland, Taiwan and South Korea be afraid, be very afraid.
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
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All Comments   (55)
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47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
We need to consider that the Obama regime is so anti-American that they will get us into a war that they have no intention of winning.
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
Since 2011 I've been telling anyone who'd listen that the US, Israel and the West should focus on two objectives in Syria: preventing the conflict from spilling beyond its borders, and securing (and if possible destroying) Syria's most dangerous weapons stores. By the time Islamists took over the rebel "opposition" it was too late to favor one side or the other. Neither objective has been met.

The war has certainly spilled over to Jordan, home to hundreds of thousands of refugees. (Smaller numbers, mostly Kurds, have gone to Iraq, but Iraq isn't really threatened by Syria as Jordan is.) It's spilled over to Lebanon, exacerbating sectarian tensions. And it's threatened Israel via the Golan.

And putting aside any gun-running by the US and its Arab allies from Libya, it broadly failed to secure its weapons stores. That was bad enough, as weapons subsequently "leaked" to Mali, Sinai, Gaza, and Syria. Accomplishing that task in Syria, home to far more dangerous weapons and delivery systems, is far more critical. There's no indication this is a near-term US objective, as they claim it would take too many "boots on the ground".

There really is no side worthy of supporting that has a chance of winning in Syria. And no one should trust US "vetting". After all, they vetted the security forces tasked with defending the US facility in Benghazi. The best thing to do is make clear to each side that if they threaten *our* interests they will be hit. Government side or rebel side.
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
I'm beginning to think that this is the kobayashi maru that OBwan wants to inflict on US to distract from his seven deadly sins (scandals) the worst of which would dethrone him but given this unwinnable scenario will enthrone him
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
It has long been my view that Obama's SOLE objective is and always has been, the destruction of America. He has accomplished a good part of this objective, mostly by weakening pillars of American culture.
Syria represents an opportunity to complete the job. Obama starts a war, fights that war vigorously for a while until we suffer major losses/damage and, then, he surrenders "to prevent further loss of life" and we become a muslim nation, governed, in large part, by Iranians. We his left wing media beating the drum, Syria can help Obama achieve his goal!
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
It's good to see someone that sees things the way that I do. I would love to see an eleceted official to call Obama out on his bad faith in such a manner.
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
I truly think this administration is horrified at "regime change" anywhere because then it would have to figure out what to do in the new situation. That's risky! Better vote "present"! The scary thing is that they're so ignorant they think they can "punish" Assad without being perceived as acting against him and for the other side!
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
http://nyyrc.com/blog/2013/08/does-obama-know-hes-siding-with-al-qaeda-duh/

Here’s what (we hope) Obama does not know. That he’s siding with a the narco-caliphate, the modern day Nazis who treat Orthodox Christians like Hitler treated the Jews; the home of Al Jazeera, Qatar; and crime boss Dawood Ibrahim. In doing so, he is helping al Qaeda wage a turf war against the organized crime interests of Russia, like the PKK. What’s at stake is no less than the global heroin market. For the powerful Orthodox backers of Assad, this looks like holy war. But to others, it’s just another day on the street, winning territory for their gang.

Sound too cynical? Consider that in January, three prominent Kurds involved in the heroin trade were assassinated – two in Paris, one in Moscow. The two women in Paris were leaders of the PKK, a Kurdish terrorist organization who has been at war with (Arab Spring supporting) Turkey for several decades. The PKK is is heavily involved in heroin smuggling out of Asia and into Europe. Ditto al Qaeda, as Afghanistan produces upwards of 85% of global opium. Wrapped in the flag of jihad is crime boss Dawood Ibrahim, who allegedly gives 30% of his revenue to the Pakistani ISI for “terror.” For Ibrahim, this is strictly business.

Since the Arab Spring, chaos in has engulfed the region. The model at work here is best seen in Lebanon during the Civil War, when the anarchy led to an explosion of the narcotics trade. Drugs have long been an important source of revenue in the Middle East. With the Brotherhood now in charge of Libya and Tunisia, their drug problems have increased substantially. Both Libya and Tunisia are frequented by al Qaeda in the Islam Maghreb, who are not only religious fanatics but drug, cigarette, and alcohol smugglers.

Finally, nobody should be surprised with France’s rhetoric. President Hollande sold Parisian suburbs to Qatar for “development,” right after the PKK murders in Paris. Can you say distribution? And in June he visited Doha, meeting with Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa, then leader of Qatar (his son is now in charge) to discuss aiding Syrian rebels. David Cameron, well, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was the one who pushed Obama into this dumb decision.
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
All of these partially informed "news" reports coming in amid all of the published uncertainty of the results of any American airstrikes or sea strikes because of the fluidity of the actual situation, not to mention the unpublished uncertainties, seem to reveal only some of the military and religious unknowns and unintended consequences inside that vile arena.

Readers here should be glad that it's not their hands-on decision as to exactly where to lay our devastating attacks. Doubtless, we can make a glass-beaded parking lot out of Syria if we want, but what's the point?.....More bloody Muslims will just pop up like Jacks in their Boxes. Whack-a-mole is a waste of time.

Muslims of varying belligerence are found from Morocco to the ends of Indonesia and the Southern Philippines.

So, yet again, let's leave these butchering Muslims to themselves by our imposing a general quarantine on that West Asia/Central Asia pot. Other Muslim areas can be quarantined as we see fit.

The French? the British? ....they don't have the resources to be of much help. Forget the United Nations. Resolutions are meaningless news items. Votes are negotiable,

We Americans, as usual, will end up "owning" any area we devastate by explosives. Is that any way to wage a War against these fractious Muslims? Muslims and "democracy" are obviously incompatible. Just look at Iraq and Afghanistan, and Libya.....Egypt? Good grief.

Muslims are not like the Japanese who finally joined international relations with a Parliament after we fire-bombed and nuclear bombed their cities with similar results. The Japanese re-built an ancient civilization to work commercially......these Muslims have no such capabilities.

Medieval tactics of surround-and-siege are well suited for use against our medieval-minded Muslim enemies. Let these Muslims eat each other. Save American blood.

47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
Since Obama, and America as well, does not have the stomach to put boots on the ground to eradicate the Assad regime in a thorough way, I say, do nothing. We cannot tell friend from foe, and merely lobbing missiles, ala Willie Clinton, at them will produce NO positive results, and will win NO ONE to our side. Thus, the only sane thing to do is wait. Let it play out. Let the various nasty foreign & domestic factions murder each other en masse and see what shakes out. Hey, it worked for the Stuarts in Jolly Olde Englande. Let Saudi Arabia commit *its* American-made air armada to the fight. Let the Arab states intervene, spending their treasure and their blood -- I mean, aren't these guys supposed to be so much braver and fanatical than we? Do nothing.
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
Wow!
That Charles Krauthammer Bill O"reilly Fox news what a great man the way he stood up to That O'reilly Fella and show what must be done in Syria. I hope everyone here hears what he said. I will listen a 2nd time
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
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