Much has been made in recent election cycles about convention rules. In particular, many Ron Paul supporters have long maintained that their candidate was denied a fair shake at the nomination due to caucus and convention shenanigans. The complaints peaked with controversial rule changes at the 2012 Republican National Convention. While those changes were undoubtedly intended to insulate a presumed nominee, the ascension of Donald Trump in this cycle demonstrates the limitations of parliamentary maneuvering. You might be able to tilt the table with rule tweaks when a contest is close. But you can’t derail a solid campaign with less than another solid campaign. Ron Paul failed in previous years for the same reason that Rand failed in this one. Neither had the votes.
As the Republican Party anticipates the nomination of Donald Trump, we begin to see the other side of that coin. Earning a party’s nomination does not necessarily earn you its full support. From National Review:
RNC chairman Reince Priebus says that he expects every GOP presidential candidate to uphold a pledge to support the eventual nominee. Considering what we heard in Senator Marco Rubio’s concession speech, I find this difficult to believe. At best, Priebus is going to have a bunch of politicians tiptoeing around Trump in tacit nonsupport. And if enough big-name Republicans end up supporting Trump, it only accentuates the need for a new party.
Some may feel that loyalty oaths should be upheld as a matter of honor, that one should support the nominee because they said they would. That’s a cute sentiment. However, in politics, promises are bound by leverage, not honor. The leverage of the party’s nomination will be severely weakened if it goes to Trump. That is because, as substantial as it is, Trump’s support remains insular. If you’re for him, you’re really for him. And if you’re against him, you’re really against him. A chasm widens between the two.
The lesson for candidates and their campaigns is that there is no substitute for earning a vote. Favorable convention rules, loyalty oaths, and similar balms will not smooth over a campaign that either fails to attract support or alienates voters it needs. That’s why Ron Paul never got the nomination. It’s also why Donald Trump’s nomination may take him no further than the convention floor.
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