The Strait of Hormuz "will not be opened," Iranian warned on Tuesday, "Until the U.S. commitments in the memorandum—including lifting the blockade, releasing frozen assets, lifting oil sanctions, ending threats and military operations on all fronts, and the other conditions to which the U.S. committed—are implemented."
I guess that settles it — the Strait is firmly in the Islamic Republic's grip.
Not so fast.
On the flip side, President Donald Trump said earlier this week that the U.S. naval blockade against Iran "remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated."
Who's right? I guess the only way to tell is to try and figure out whether shipping is actually moving through Hormuz, and how much.
For that, let's go to CNN's David Goldman, who's been covering Gulf oil flows. Events there are moving so quickly that his headline a week ago was "The Trump administration claims oil is flowing normally again. There’s just one problem," but his Monday headline read "Wait… how much oil is actually leaving the Persian Gulf?" This morning, things had moved this much further: "Iran has lost significant control of the Strait of Hormuz."
While "both Iran and the United States have claimed the upper hand," Goldman wrote in his most recent report, "the competing rhetoric has caused considerable confusion and doubt."
"At the moment, however, the evidence is clear: The United States, patrolling the strait with its navy, is gaining ground – and Iran is losing much of its control of the critical waterway."
Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, said this week that "It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait."
"The expiration of the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran this week in theory allows Iran to begin charging tolls again. But it doesn’t appear the country has been able to," Goldman added.
Well, good.
But still... what a mess.
And Another Thing: Looking beyond the end of this war — regardless of how it ends — the world can't help but notice that if you need reliable oil supplies, the Gulf of America is a helluva lot more dependable than that other Gulf. Hint, hint.
Just because Tehran's grip has loosened doesn't mean Hormuz is truly open. Tankers still must take evasive measures like leaving their transponders off and avoiding Iranian waters. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that oil flows out of the Gulf are back up to about 15 million barrels a day from the prewar 20 million. But that's counting oil rerouted away from Hormuz and not just through Hormuz.
Prior to February 28, Tehran had never dared to completely close Hormuz to shipping. Doing so could pose an existential threat to the global economy, which could also put the regime at risk. Besides, like the Sword of Damocles, the real power lay in the threat.
But then last summer, and again this spring, Trump went to Truth Social to demand "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" from the Islamic Republic.
If the threat from Washington is existential, why not take the risk?
For whatever reason — maybe we really are dangerously low on munitions, maybe the White House decided that a collapsed Iran is a worse threat to the economy than the Islamic Republic is, maybe a lack of resolve, I don't know — Trump still hasn't followed through on his threat.
And to think that back in March and April, it at least appeared that we were on the cusp of eliminating the world's leading state sponsor of terror, and the lynchpin of Beijing and Moscow's Middle East ambitions.
Instead, here we are in the waning days of summer arguing over who controls the Strait of Hormuz, when the answer appears to be nobody and everybody. Depending on who you ask and what measure of reduced oil flow counts as "open."
But looking at the bigger picture, the most important element might be this: "US Navy blockade has caused Iran’s oil exports to crater — and could finally destabilize regime."
After just six months, I hope it isn't too soon for me to add, "Faster please."
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