Ukraine's War Against Russian Oil Just Scored Another Big Hit

It seems like just two weeks ago [It was just two weeks ago, Steve —Editor] I wrote a VIP-exclusive essay on Ukraine's war against Russian energy production. This weekend, Ukraine launched an unlikely-looking suicide drone at one of Russia's three biggest oil refineries — and scored a direct hit, 900 miles deep inside Russia, and probably 1,000 miles from the launch site.

When I say "unlikely looking," I mean it's unlikely looking. The E-300 Enterprise drone bears — or rather, bore — more than a passing resemblance to the custom-built Spirit of St. Louis monoplane that Charles Lindbergh crossed the Atlantic in nearly 100 years ago.

Meet the Ukrainian drone E-300 Enterprise. It is believed that this very drone nearly destroyed the Novo-Ufimsky Oil Refinery in Bashkiria yesterday (1,340 kilometers from Ukraine).
This lively, chubby drone weighs 500 kg itself, while carrying 300 kg of explosives and can fly… pic.twitter.com/71j94lwORj
— EMPR.media (@EuromaidanPR) September 15, 2025

What's remarkable is that "this lively, chubby drone" crossed 900 miles of Russian airspace without getting shot down — not even when it reached the Bashneft-Novoil refinery in Ufa. Whether Russian air defenses were unprepared, poorly sited, or simply nonexistent, only Moscow knows for sure.

That's roughly equivalent to driving from New York City to St. Louis at a hundred miles per hour without once getting pulled over by the highway patrol. And then setting fire to the Gateway Arch as soon as you get there.

Impressive.

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UPDATE: Another item came in just minutes after I published this column.

"Russia close to cutting oil output due to drone attacks, sources say."

Russia's oil pipeline monopoly Transneft (TRNF_p.MM), opens new tab has warned producers they may have to cut output following Ukraine's drone attacks on critical export ports and refineries, three industry sources said on Tuesday.
In a statement on its website, Transneft described the news as "fake" and part of the West's "information war" against Russia.
Kyiv has stepped up attacks on Russian energy assets since August in a bid to impede Moscow's war effort in Ukraine and reduce the Kremlin's revenues as attempts to secure an end to the conflict through peace talks have stalled.

And:

However, Transneft, which handles more than 80% of all the oil extracted in Russia, has in recent days restricted oil firms' ability to store oil in its pipeline system, two industry sources close to Russian oil firms told Reuters.
Transneft has also warned producers it may have to accept less oil if its infrastructure sustains further damage, the two sources said.

Make of that what you will.

And now, back to the original column.

— — —

Another drone — type still unconfirmed — may have hit another part of the same facility, about 1.5 miles away.

Warblogger War Translated detailed the seriousness of the strike:

Researchers from CyberBoroshno report that the strike on the Bashneft-Novoil refinery in Ufa damaged a key transfer overpass. Likely consequences include a halt in crude movement between tanks and units, failure of automation systems, and partial shutdowns to localize the… https://t.co/ICaF4I21Hs pic.twitter.com/5mEE3313xR
— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) September 13, 2025

Russian sources tell a different story. “There were no casualties or injuries. The production site sustained minor damage, and a fire broke out, which is currently being extinguished," according to the head of Russia’s Bashkortostan region, Radiy Khabirov. Russian sources also claim that the second drone was shot down.

Of course, Russian sources always say things like that — but recent gas shortages and rationing in Russia's Far East and a couple of other regions can't be explained away. Of course, Ukrainian sources always make big claims, too.

"The complex refines 23.5 million tons of oil annually across 3 sites," Igor Sushko reported, or about "470,000 barrels per day." Other reports indicate Ufa accounts for about 6-8% of Russia's refining capacity.

Capacities are public knowledge, so when experts say that with this latest attack, Russia has lost 20% of its refinery capacity in the last two months or so, I'm inclined to give them at least some credence. What we don't know is how much of that capacity has been restored during that same time.

If Moscow lost 20% but restored most of it quickly, it suffered nothing worse than an inconvenience.

But we just don't know.

We also don't know for certain how big a pinch sanctions and labor shortages have put on Moscow's ability to bring damaged refineries back up to full production.

So the question from two weeks ago remains: Can Ukraine not just maintain but increase the pressure on Russian energy production? CEPA Senior Fellow Jessica Berlin estimated that if Kyiv can cut Moscow's gas and diesel production in half, then Moscow will "have difficulties supplying the front," not to mention domestic gas rationing, and Russia's coffers running on empty.

But Kyiv has a long way to go before any of that happens — if it ever does.