Russia's Nuclear Bomber Force Just Took a Yuge Hit

Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

Ukraine just pulled off one of those operations that people will study and talk about for as long as human beings maintain our morbid fascination with war.

Dubbed Operation Spider's Web, Ukraine spent 18 months smuggling small, inexpensive drones into Russia. Once assembled, the drones were hidden inside wooden launch containers, hauled by civilian-looking trucks, and parked near five strategic bomber bases spread across Russia.

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On the GO order Sunday morning, nearly 120 drones emerged from their secret compartments and, guided by FPV (first-person video) remote control, delivered their explosive payloads to Russia's nuclear-capable fleet of Tu-95, Tu-22M3, and Tu-160 bombers.

If the U.S. Air Force and Space Force leadership aren't furiously scribbling notes right now on how to avoid getting caught with their pants down the same way, then maybe we're paying them too much.

Kyiv claims 41 warplanes were damaged or destroyed, including an invaluable (and rare) Beriev A-50 Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft. But take those claims with a grain of salt — the destruction of only four older Tu-95 bombers and a transport plane has been visually confirmed (so far). Moscow, aside from some additional nuclear saber-rattling on Sunday, says that basically nothing happened.

To me, the saber-rattling confirms that Russia’s bomber force took a hard body blow. Forty-one bombers would be more than a third of the entire fleet — and even if Ukraine destroyed or seriously damaged only half that number, it’s a serious crimp in Russia’s offensive capabilities. Each bomber is virtually irreplaceable: the Tu-95 and Tu-22 have been out of production for decades, and current Tu-160 production (aka the “B-1nsky”) is painfully slow and dependent on hard-to-source Western electronics.

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Whatever the final numbers, just one of the five strikes was visually stunning — as seen in this dramatic footage.

CDR Salamander said the strikes were a "solid operation," but also told X followers that "the layered and interlocking 2nd and 3rd order effects — and the resulting resource overhead to Russia — are the real value of this attack." What that means is, Russia's airbase security just got a lot more complex, and they might have to rebase their strategic bombers (not an easy task) farther away from the front.

"The fact there are even fewer high-demand/low-density heavy bombers to carry cruise missiles to attack UKR is just a pleasant side-benefit," Sal concluded. 

Rumors that Russia's submarine base (and Northern Fleet HQ) at Severomorsk appear to be nothing more than rumors — and that's a good thing. Files leaked last year showed that the Kremlin's criteria for launching a nuclear first strike are actually lower than publicly discussed. Putin's rationale for starting a global thermonuclear war includes Russia losing 20% of its nuclear missile subs (the big boats that can destroy dozens of cities each) or 30% of its nuclear-powered attack subs.

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One ought to tread lightly around Russia's submarine bases, and it appears Ukraine has.

Finally, regardless of your personal feelings about Zelensky, the following is a hard truth:

Well said. 

Recommended: Starship Flight Test 9: Another Earth-Shattering Kaboom

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