(Very) Early Returns


Here is the latest out of Colorado’s mail-in ballots by party affiliation via AOS Decision Desk. Blue Dem, Red GOP, Indy and Other are Gray. Denver County/City is of course the urban heart of Colorado’s Democrats. El Paso County is the southern Colorado giant, and very Republican. Both have similar populations — 620,000 or so for El Paso, 640,00 or so for Denver. (Denver doesn’t include the suburbs, which balloon the metro Denver population to about 2.2 million. But the ‘burbs are also much more competitive.)

As you can see, El Paso GOP voters are outvoting Denver Democrats by a whopping 20%. Dems in El Paso are outperforming Republicans in Denver by a similar percentage margin — but the overall numbers are much smaller, and there are likely more registered Democrats in El Paso than there are registered Republicans in Denver. Overall, Red is out performing Blue by a total of just over 7,000 votes in their two biggest core areas.

The metro battlefield counties are Douglas, Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Adams. The GOP leads by a total in those four counties (up in all but Adams) by 47,000 returned ballots. That’s tempered somewhat by Boulder, where the Democrats have returned a net of 16,013, and in Pueblo, where they’re up by 5,295. That just about cuts the GOP return advantage in half.

Overall? AOSDD has GOP ballots up overall by 104,487 out of a total of 1,149,745. If we split the difference of Indy and Other voters right down the middle, the GOP candidates should, at this early date, be getting around 52-56% of the vote. That spread is a guesstimate to account for split tickets and party switchers.

And if the generic party preference polls are any indicator, I was overly generous giving the Democrats half of the Indy & Other votes.

If you haven’t mailed in your ballot, what are you waiting for?