Wargaming the Senate: Quick and Dirty Edition


This chart from Real Clear Politics pretty much says it all -- in the last few weeks, virtually all the movement has been to the right. The one exception is in Kentucky, where Mitch McConnell's race has moved one step to the left, from Leans GOP to Tossup. Barring an unexpectedly tight primary, I'd expect Kentucky to move back into the red column by August.

RCP poll-averaging gives the Donks 46 seats and the GOP 47, meaning each side needs to win four of the seven Tossup races to secure control of the Senate. (Joe Biden casts the tie-breaking Senate vote, so the Democrats only need 50 seats to keep their majority, while the Republicans need 51 to take it away.)

The tossup races ar AK, AR, CO, KY, LA, MI, and NC. If I had to pick right now, I'd give CO and MI to the Democrats and the rest to the GOP for a gain of seven and 52 seats. RCP's No Tossup map gives KY and NC to the Dems and MI to the GOP for a GOP gain of six. I'm tempted to give CO to the Republicans, but we haven't seen much yet of Cory Gardner in action yet, and same-day voter registration raises the margin of cheating the GOP has to overcome. Of the rest of my picks, I'm least confident about the GOP pickup in NC, and about the Democrats holding on to MI.

There is still room for surprises however in IA, NH, and even OR. All three seats are currently in Democratic hands, and all three could still end up in play.