Catch the Wave
The big talk is just how many seats will the GOP pick up in the Senate next year, and we've spent a lot of time right here talking about just that. But how about the House? We do still have a bicameral legislature, even if it is becoming increasingly difficult to tell them apart.
The House is in the strange place where although it's almost universally reviled, not much is going to change. Yes, gerrymandering is a part of that, but it isn't the whole story.
People are fed up with Congress generally, but with ObamaCare specifically and increasingly. To punish the Democrats for ObamaCare would mean voting in more Republicans, and the out-of-the-White-House party does tend to make big gains during an incumbent President's sixth year.
But the Democrats are already probably pretty close to their floor number of House seats. Is some Republican going to unseat Nancy Pelosi? How many blue Massachusetts districts could possibly swing? I haven't yet gone to the map to look district by district, but it's hard to picture the Democrat caucus ever getting very much smaller than it already is. 180 might be a hard floor for them.
My buddy Tom Dougherty has been running those numbers, too:
Is that bad news for Republicans? In one sense, maybe. Since there's not much chance of them picking up the 20 or more seats history says they should, it will be easy for the Democrat/News Industry Complex to paint anything less as a "loss."
In another sense, maybe not. If Frustrated Voter Sally is unable to vent her frustration at her safe Democrat Congressman, she could choose vent her frustration at her Democrat Senator. The safety of House Democrats might make Senate Democrats even more vulnerable than they already are.