I have to reference that David Paul Kuhn piece again. A graf stuck out when I read two other stories this morning:
Should Romney win the whites Obama lost, Romney will only need to perform as well as John McCain with minorities to win. This is true even under Democrats’ most optimistic, and unlikely, demographic scenario: that the white share of the electorate decreases another two percentage points from 2008, blacks turn out at the same historic levels they did then, and the Hispanic share of the vote rises from 9 to 11 percent of the electorate while Obama retains the same level of support from other minority groups.
Here’s why the minority vote won’t increase over 2008, and may very well decrease for the first time in approximately ever.
First up, from the New York Times:
More than half of all of African-Americans and other non-Hispanic blacks in the city who were old enough to work had no job at all this year, according to an analysis of employment data compiled by the federal Labor Department. And when black New Yorkers lose their jobs, they spend a full year, on average, trying to find new jobs — far longer than New Yorkers of other races.
The trend is better nationwide than in NYC, but black employment still lags far behind white, and slightly behind Hispanic. Speaking of Hispanic, our second item comes from the official Romney site.
Obama’s ground game, money advantage, star power, and the excitement of our first Minority American President all intertwined to boost minority voter participation to record levels. Of the four, all he has left is his ground game. Even the press is turning (slightly) dubious.
So what is going to bring about an extra 2% minority vote? ACORN and Big Labor ballot-box stuffing, perhaps — but even that likely isn’t enough in a year when voters have proven themselves tired of both race-baiters and unions.