VodkaPundit

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Another presidential poll with weird internals. Here’s the big picture:

With strong support from women and independent voters, President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney 46 – 40 among Pennsylvania voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Romney would do a better job on the economy, voters say 49 – 41 percent.

The matchup compares to a 47 – 39 percent Obama lead in a May 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University.

That trust thing on the economy doesn’t seem to stack up with the overall preference numbers, so Ed Morrissey wants to know

why hasn’t Team Romney gotten more aggressive about courting Pennsylvanians? First, it’s early, so they have plenty of time to focus on this state if they see some advantage in doing so. They may also be looking at the breakout of independents, which Obama seems to win by a larger margin than the overall survey, 43/35. That’s a curious outcome, and it does call into question the topline results, since Democrats have a double-digit registration edge in the state. If Romney’s losing indies by eight points, how does he get within six overall? And with those numbers, how does Obama go from a 48/47 re-elect number, including a 46/47 among independents, to a 46/40 in a head-to-head matchup against Romney?

Team Romney might look at those internals and reasonably conclude that the topline numbers don’t accurately reflect the difficulty in winning Pennsylvania, and they may be right. If the economy worsens, though, or Obama issues another clueless “private sector is doing fine” statement, things could change in the Keystone State.

My best guess is, people no longer trust Obama, but Romney has yet to convince independents that he’s better than the devil they do know. He’s got less than five months to make the sale.