Employment Has Become a Sucker's Bet

The bettors at Intrade can’t find takers for the proposition that June unemployment could be as “low” as 8.7%. What surprises my is the odds of 8.9% or worse are only 1-in-5.

I’d love to be wrong on this one, but looking at the jobless claims for the last month, the only way we’re getting down to 8.8% is if another couple hundred thousand workers become discouraged and drop out of the labor force. Given that the labor participation rate is already lower than it’s been in my adult lifetime, that’s a depressing thought.

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