The Next War
Michael Totten takes into account Hezbollah's new longer-range rockets:
If Israel's nuclear power plant comes under fire, if Tel Aviv skyscrapers explode from missile attacks, if Hezbollah manages to turn all of Israel into a kill zone where there is no place to run, Israelis will panic like they haven't since the 1973 Yom Kippur War when it briefly appeared the Egyptian army might overrun the whole country. I wouldn't want to be anywhere in Lebanon while Israelis are actively fending off that kind of assault. No country can afford to be restrained while fighting for its survival.
Being saturated with missiles isn't quite the same thing as being overrun by tanks -- but would be on less disastrous for the Israeli economy, and perhaps almost as effective at getting Jews to simply quit living in Israel.