VodkaPundit

An Exact(ing) Science

Michael Barone: Reading the polls this year is more art than science.

And, man, is he right.

When doing the electoral college math, I rely mostly on Rasmussen, with a healthy dose of Real Clear Politics and its invaluable poll average page. They’ve proven their worth over the last few election cycles. But this year? Ugh.

You’ve got to take all the numbers, fudge an unknown Bradley Effect, recast for new-voter enthusiasm, remember that new-voter enthusiasm never lives up to the hype, then keep in mind that this year it might… then throw up your hands, shout “I just don’t know!” and pick winners as best you’re able.