Pollster John Zogby surprised the political world back in April with a long-range prediction that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for president. On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the president is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.
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The long, tortuous presidential contest has come down to who the ”security mom” thinks can best protect her family against terrorism. Based on current polling data, Bush has won that argument in the face of Kerry’s relentless attacks. That explains why the Democrat this week was not talking about health care or other standby issues of his party, but was trying to pierce Bush’s security shield by harping on the disappearance of munitions in Iraq.
Well, we all know how well that’s likely to work.