Experts tell us the internet will forever change how political campaigns are waged. Maybe so, but forever doesn’t start until the 2010 election is over.
If 2008 was the year voters wanted change, 2010 is the year voters want blood.
And if you want blood, you have to go on TV.
Let’s start with a low-risk prediction: 2010 will be the largest midterm election ad spend ever. It will also be the roughest, toughest, meanest, most fragmented cycle ever. Think the Wild West with yard signs.
2010 is also the year of being angry. And this year anger equals money.
The smart money will go where it’s always gone: directly to campaigns, party committees (although the RNC, which has outraised the DNC, may have hurt its fundraising abilities due to a poor choice of entertainment venues), and well-established outlets like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Club for Growth, and others.
But 2010 will see a new kind of financial instrument: angry money.
Angry money hates incumbents. Angry money hates Washington. Angry money hates the political establishment. Angry money wants to see someone’s head on a pike.
This money isn’t heading to the usual places. Angry money donors are taking a tip from the tea party movement and forming their own groups. We could easily have 15 or more semi-organized to very organized groups willing to spend anything from a few thousand dollars to millions and millions. Pick the right race in the right Congressional district and you could wreak some serious havoc for 20 grand or even less.
Angry money is also in a hurry. The angry money wants to see results right away. The goal is to see comments on the blogs the next day and numbers moving by the end of the week.
They’re not buying banner ads on the Drudge Report.
As powerful a targeting tool as the internet is, there is no better way to move more people in less time than TV. Television still gets you noticed. Television makes you legitimate. And let’s be honest, we don’t believe anything until we see it on TV.
Groups that want to drive a message in a hurry follow a very simple plan: buy a dump truck full of commercials on TV, cable, and radio. We’re talking 1500 gross rating points per week. For those of you who don’t enjoy reading media plans before bedtime, that’s enough TV time to make sure 100 percent of adults see your commercial at least 15 times. Even your local car dealer thinks that’s a lot of TV.
If you sell ads for a TV station in a hot congressional district, I have two words for you: new Porsche.
One other note about angry money. Angry dollars will not be spent telling you how wonderful a candidate is or educating viewers about prudent fiscal policies. They’re going to be out to gut someone with a rusty fishing knife.
Most challenger campaigns will run 70% positive, 30% negative. Independent groups will go 100% negative. Unless they can figure out a way to do more.
Which brings us to the subject of negative ads themselves. Every political ad guy will tell you that focus groups hate negative ads. That same politico will counter with: “But negative ads work.”
They’re wrong.
People in focus groups don’t hate negative ads. They hate your negative ads. Most political attack ads are so poorly made they insult Paris Hilton’s intelligence. It doesn’t have to be that way. Ever seen the ads that start, “Hi, I’m a Mac and I’m a PC?” The messages are hard-hitting negative, but the spots are among the most liked ads on TV. They’re smart, strategic, and well-made. The point is, buying lots of ads is good, and running ads people don’t hate is even better.
Even if the independent groups are on your side, you may not be in the clear. Traditional, well-established groups do things like polling and tend to think about how their actions will affect their favored candidate. The angry money groups may not be as politically astute. If a group drops a bomb in the wrong way or at the wrong time, it could do you more harm than good.
In 2012 we may all look back on this article and have a good laugh. The digital convergence will have finally arrived and we’ll get the video programming we want projected onto our corneas just by thinking about it. Election ads will be one hundred percent positive and served up in equal rotation from the central server.
Until then, give me a thousand gross rating points and hand over the remote.
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